Points Maxxing

[Wrestleknownothing]

What are the best case scenarios for the top 20 teams? - you have probably asked yourself.

You ask. I answer.

So You Are Saying There's A Chance | Wrestling.Guru

It is that time of year. The leaves are changing. The morning air is crisp. And the college wrestling season is just around the corner. And you know what th ...

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[AgSurfer]

Nice analysis. Here's a suggestion. If you have the right data and analysis tools, it shouldn't be too difficult to put together. You're showing the expected points and absolute maximum. The absolute maximum score has almost infinitesimal odds. How about a couple of in between scores for each team that are within realistic reach. Say 50% chance, 25% chance and 10% chance. Or you could pick increments between the expected score and maximum score and calculate the odds of reaching each increment. Either way, I expect these results will look something like a Gaussian distribution if you plot them as odds vs score. If it's too much work to do everyone, how about just for Penn State?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Nice analysis. Here's a suggestion. If you have the right data and analysis tools, it shouldn't be too difficult to put together. You're showing the expected points and absolute maximum. The absolute maximum score has almost infinitesimal odds. How about a couple of in between scores for each team that are within realistic reach. Say 50% chance, 25% chance and 10% chance. Or you could pick increments between the expected score and maximum score and calculate the odds of reaching each increment. Either way, I expect these results will look something like a Gaussian distribution if you plot them as odds vs score. If it's too much work to do everyone, how about just for Penn State?

I will think about it some, but as you can see from the wide range of actual probabilities when I was targeting ~10% per wrestler, the big gaps between placement probabilities makes it tough to target a specific probability.

 

[Shifty15]

I’ve been searching for perennial Top Ten finisher Rutgers and am assuming it was an unintentional oversight? Matter will be crushed!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I’ve been searching for perennial Top Ten finisher Rutgers and am assuming it was an unintentional oversight? Matter will be crushed!

At 19 points, they are expected to top 10.

 

[jack66]

Nice work. I enjoy reading your perspective, backed with data and detail.

I tend to take a more macro approach. A general assessment of this season leads to a two-team race, IMO. And it's a clash of styles that will put us over the top, even if OkSt comes close to maximizing their finishes.

38.5 vs 15.5, that's the difference in bonus points last year (not counting MFORs). It's like we brought 2 extra Silver medalists. The back half of their lineup (157 - 285) scored 4.5 bonus.

Of course, it's a new year with a few different players, but styles don't often change. Norman and Berge are much like who they are replacing.

 

[Joejitsu]

I dont think the race for 1st will be as tight as people think. I think OKST had a lot of calls go their way throughout the tournament that they most likely will not get the full benefit of this year.

I think they had a couple of lucky breaks also.
I think the addition of NEB, and VTech building a strong competitive team will cut into OKSTs finish more than PSUs

I think the race for first will not be as close as people think with Cael and company pulling away
but I think the race for2nd will be extremely tight and wouldnt be shocked if OKST does not finish second this year

I think they are the 2nd best team but the margin for error for them between 2nd and 4th is razor thin
I think PSU has the best roster but the margin for error for them is much more forgiving and as a result they will still be first even if things dont fall their way!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I dont think the race for 1st will be as tight as people think. I think OKST had a lot of calls go their way throughout the tournament that they most likely will not get the full benefit of this year.

I think they had a couple of lucky breaks also.
I think the addition of NEB, and VTech building a strong competitive team will cut into OKSTs finish more than PSUs

I think the race for first will not be as close as people think with Cael and company pulling away
but I think the race for2nd will be extremely tight and wouldnt be shocked if OKST does not finish second this year

I think they are the 2nd best team but the margin for error for them between 2nd and 4th is razor thin
I think PSU has the best roster but the margin for error for them is much more forgiving and as a result they will still be first even if things dont fall their way!

As things stand it looks like PSU is a clear favorite for first (~27 points), OSU is a clearer favorite for second (~40 points) and there is a jump ball for third through seventh among Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Iowa, and Stanford, with about 8 points separating them.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

What are the best case scenarios for the top 20 teams? - you have probably asked yourself.

You ask. I answer.

So You Are Saying There's A Chance | Wrestling.Guru

It is that time of year. The leaves are changing. The morning air is crisp. And the college wrestling season is just around the corner. And you know what th ...

wrestling.guru

If Iowa finishes seventh, the weeping and wailing on HR will be historic! Seriously though, for the Iowa faithful it has to be painful to see the storied Iowa program in its current state. As an aside, it must be so frustrating for them to have Bassett decommit then have him in the World Finals.