Possible Upset of Louisville ?

[Michigan Fan]

Gary is right about 9 starters on offense. It's a little deceptive because Petrino's offense if very multiple and lists 13 starters instead of 11.

The 9 senior starters on offense are the 7 you mentioned above plus:

TE: Keith Towbridge (Hikutini is listed as an H-Back).
RG: Kiola Mahoni (the website is inconsistent, at times listing him as a junior and at other times as a senior. His bio says that he played two years at a junior college, and this is his second year at UofL, so this is definitely his last year of eligibility at UofL).

You sure about Mahoni...the reason I was under the impression he was a 4 year to play 3 guy...one thing is for sure it will be known for sure by January...plus as you said we play so many guys on offense it not like the replacements will not have plenty of experience.

Now I do want to see how Jordan Davis and Mickey Crum do next year with Hikituni and Towbridge gone ...for the uneducated Davis is a Former 4* TE Transfer from Texas A&M who been on campus since the end of Spring. Had offers out of HS also from Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and Florida State.

Worst case on the OL my guess is at Tackle McNeil and Christian-(very solid bookends) with the interior of the OL Being Bell @ Center with Thomas-(2015 Starter was beaten out by Hunter) and Jones. Actually pretty comfortable with that.

 

[Oldtrainer_rivals]

If CATS beat Mizzouri, Jawja and come out of UT game healthy they just might give a UofL good game! Really, really like way CATS o.line is physically playing, just need to keep it up!

 

[Michigan Fan]

If CATS beat Mizzouri, Jawja and come out of UT game healthy they just might give a UofL good game! Really, really like way CATS o.line is physically playing, just need to keep it up!

That result would not surprise me...Kentucky winning those 3 games at this point. With UGa being the toughest.

 

[Cmarcell2006]

If UofL doesn't put up 42+ by halftime I'll be shocked. They're just on another level, a championship level. Lamar Jackson elevates them to that championship level, but even if he wasn't there Petrino would have another capable QB starting. They're just light years better than UK at this point, as difficult as that is to say.

 

[rmattox]

Won't happen

 

[Dallas-Wild]

You sure about Mahoni...the reason I was under the impression he was a 4 year to play 3 guy...one thing is for sure it will be known for sure by January...plus as you said we play so many guys on offense it not like the replacements will not have plenty of experience.

Now I do want to see how Jordan Davis and Mickey Crum do next year with Hikituni and Towbridge gone ...for the uneducated Davis is a Former 4* TE Transfer from Texas A&M who been on campus since the Spring.

Worst case on the OL my guess is at Tackle McNeil and Christian-(very solid bookends) with the interior of the OL Being Bell @ Center with Thomas and Jones. Actually pretty comfortable with that.

I can truly understand all of the confusion.... if I had to keep up with a roster full of transfers there is no way I could keep up with them all and what eligibility they had left.

 

[CardHack]

Always love these posts...its not that UK did anything good, its that UL wasn't themselves and kept screwing up...so stupid.

Turnovers were forced. ULs offense had turnover issues and UKs defense was good at creating turnovers. You didn't mention that UK threw 2 4th quarter INTs in 2014 and 1 in 2015...why is that?? Maybe, just maybe that should've been expected bc UL was an INT machine in 2014.....lets be consistent in our analysis shall we?

You think like I do. I hate the dismissiveness of turnovers as some equalizing factor and it's about nauseated me with a group of Clemson fans who think their five turnovers against Louisville somehow salvaged Louisville from being blownout...while completely ignoring the three consecutive scores they got after being down 7-0 off of three Louisville turnovers, two of which were completely unforced by Clemson where there was no contact. The two fumbles Clemson had were bad ball security on their part, and rips by our defenders. Of the three INTs, two were great plays by Jaire Alexander coupled with Watson being a hair late on the throws. You can't just throw turnovers in the garbage as some flukey byproduct.

If you are turnover prone, don't be real surprised when a team spends all week with rip drills; if you turn the ball over with a high frequency as a team that is just as often the byproduct of good scouting. Bolen had pick sixes in consecutive years--one a coverage misread, and another a horrific decision where he forced it into Forrest when he didn't have it. Ditto Lamar's last year where he probably saved the game by quickly reacting and saving a potential pick six on sheer athleticism. If a quarterback is reckless throwing the football a defensive coordinator might go with more robber coverages or stunt people into throwing lanes if a QB has a tendency to get distracted when he has tight windows to throw through.

 

[PushupMan]

Always love these posts...its not that UK did anything good, its that UL wasn't themselves and kept screwing up...so stupid.

Turnovers were forced. ULs offense had turnover issues and UKs defense was good at creating turnovers. You didn't mention that UK threw 2 4th quarter INTs in 2014 and 1 in 2015...why is that?? Maybe, just maybe that should've been expected bc UL was an INT machine in 2014.....lets be consistent in our analysis shall we?

I agree. Both teams should receive credit for the big plays that they made, but fans only tend to look at what their own teams did or did not do, and they fail to give credit to the opponent for causing some of the mistakes that led their team to make some big negative play.

I am starting to come around to Phil Steele's way of thinking when it comes to determining the relative strength and weakness of teams (on a macro level - as we all know, turnovers can greatly affect the game score even though one team has a huge yardage advantage. The UK-Mississippi State game is a great example of this). Steele likes to look at total yardage difference to get that "in general" strength or weakness measure.

In 2015, UofL's total offense was 489 to UK's 291 (UofL +198). In 2014, it was UofL 472 and UK 321 (UofL +151).

Obviously, winning and losing on November 26th is all-important, but when the game is over and we are all looking for a reasonable assessment of where the two programs are at, take a look at the yardage differential, as Phil Steele does. Then ask yourself whether that number is significantly more or less than the UofL +198 from 2015 and UofL +151 from 2014.

 

[PushupMan]

I can truly understand all of the confusion.... if I had to keep up with a roster full of transfers there is no way I could keep up with them all and what eligibility they had left.

Yes, I really do wish Petrino would quit getting players from junior colleges like Mahoni. I greatly dislike having future NFL offensive linemen on the roster!

 

[Michigan Fan]

I can truly understand all of the confusion.... if I had to keep up with a roster full of transfers there is no way I could keep up with them all and what eligibility they had left.

Everyone takes JuCos...for the most part Louisville been taking JuCo that still has 3 years of playing eligibility. Plus with a weak In State recruiting area you have bring in players-(Kansas State does this masterfully)

 

[Michigan Fan]

Yes, I really do wish Petrino would quit getting players from junior colleges like Mahoni. I greatly dislike having future NFL offensive linemen on the roster!

Or on the DL Drew Bailey....

 

[Dallas-Wild]

Everyone takes JuCos...for the most part Louisville been taking JuCo that still has 3 years of playing eligibility. Plus with a weak In State recruiting area you have bring in players-(Kansas State does this masterfully)

Relax guys geez...wasn't referring to JuCo's ....you can play stupid you knew what I was referring to.

 

[PushupMan]

Relax guys geez...wasn't referring to JuCo's ....you can play stupid you knew what I was referring to.

I do, and Fields is another future NFL player that I absolutely hate having on our roster....

 

[Dallas-Wild]

I do, and Fields is another future NFL player that I absolutely hate having on our roster....

[banana]

 

[Michigan Fan]

Relax guys geez...wasn't referring to JuCo's ....you can play stupid you knew what I was referring to.

The context was Mahoni-(JuCo) now with Fields and JHC...Yep likely Pros as well....

I do, and Fields is another future NFL player that I absolutely hate having on our roster....

PUM...with you on that one....as a Cowboys fan was so glad when Hardy was let go...

 

[CatsFanGG24]

As far as this years game - I don't see UK being strong where UL is weaker...for example, the UL OL is a question mark but I don't think UK has the DL to take advantage...maybe that is a good thing, bc when LJ is forced out of the pocket sometimes that's the worst thing the D can do.

Our OL and running game is strong, but ULs front is strong, so its not like we can take much advantage of that.

In 2014, our DL/DEs were a strength and they wreaked havoc on ULs weak OL. I don't see the UK advantage in matchups this year to where they can dominate an aspect of the game.

Still 4 games away though.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Or on the DL Drew Bailey....

I pointed him out last year as a player that I really hate to be on UL...I thought he looked damn good last year - and he has built on it this year.

 

[red rage 2016]

As far as this years game - I don't see UK being strong where UL is weaker...for example, the UL OL is a question mark but I don't think UK has the DL to take advantage...maybe that is a good thing, bc when LJ is forced out of the pocket sometimes that's the worst thing the D can do.

Our OL and running game is strong, but ULs front is strong, so its not like we can take much advantage of that.

In 2014, our DL/DEs were a strength and they wreaked havoc on ULs weak OL. I don't see the UK advantage in matchups this year to where they can dominate an aspect of the game.

Still 4 games away though.

UofL's OL a question mark ? Louisville is 6th in the country in rushing offense and 14th in passing offense and #2 in Total Offense. So I think that OL is holding up just fine. Plus Louisville gave up over 40 sacks last year compared to 13 so far this year.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

UofL's OL a question mark ? Louisville is 6th in the country in rushing offense and 14th in passing offense and #2 in Total Offense. So I think that OL is holding up just fine. Plus Louisville gave up over 40 sacks last year compared to 13 so far this year.

Yes, ULs OL is a question mark.

They are 6th in rushing due to LJ and mostly non scripted scrambles. An extremely athletic QB can cover up OL issues.

 

[red rage 2016]

Yes, ULs OL is a question mark.

They are 6th in rushing due to LJ and mostly non scripted scrambles. An extremely athletic QB can cover up OL issues.

UofL has 2,000 rushing yards on the season and Jackson has 900 of those. If Jackson was just a pocket passer you would have to assume that at least half his rush yards would go to UofL's RB's. That would still give UofL about 200 more rush yards on the year than U.K.

 

[rockycard]

Yes, ULs OL is a question mark.

They are 6th in rushing due to LJ and mostly non scripted scrambles. An extremely athletic QB can cover up OL issues.

Honestly, that was definitely how it was last year. Most of his runs this year have been designed runs, not nearly the scrambling for his life runs from last year.

 

[Bill@ModernThirst]

UofL has 2,000 rushing yards on the season and Jackson has 900 of those. If Jackson was just a pocket passer you would have to assume that at least half his rush yards would go to UofL's RB's. That would still give UofL about 200 more rush yards on the year than U.K.

If LJ was just a pocket passer, all of UofL's rushing numbers would go down. LJ's running ability opens up the entire offense as the defense is more concerned with not letting him loose than stopping the traditional running game or his passing game.

 

[Bill@ModernThirst]

Honestly, that was definitely how it was last year. Most of his runs this year have been designed runs, not nearly the scrambling for his life runs from last year.

A better distinction is that they are plays designed with the OPTION to run, which he does more often than not.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

UofL has 2,000 rushing yards on the season and Jackson has 900 of those. If Jackson was just a pocket passer you would have to assume that at least half his rush yards would go to UofL's RB's. That would still give UofL about 200 more rush yards on the year than U.K.

No, I do not think that would happen at all. Take that threat away and the rushing #s would suffer more.

ULs OL is a question mark - I didn't say it was a bad OL, but it definitely lacks consistency, have seen it make many penalties and many of its shortcomings are covered up by LJ.

I am also not sure that breaking through the OL is all that great against UL, because LJ in scramble mode can cause more problems than containing him in the pocket. If Jackson were to come up gimpy in a game, I don't see the UL OL being able to control the line and work a normal running game...but he has stayed very healthy all season and has been smart about it.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Yes, ULs OL is a question mark.

They are 6th in rushing due to LJ and mostly non scripted scrambles. An extremely athletic QB can cover up OL issues.

It's Jackson not the OL

 

[CardHack]

This perception that Lamar is playing backyard football is slowly getting dispelled; watch any number of his runs that spring for big yardage and in the vast majority of them they are designed. The 36 yarder in the first series was designed, the big 50 yarder against FSU that put cherry on top was designed and the two long ones against Syracuse were designed. Even the one he sprung in the fourth quarter against Clemson I believe was by design because I've never seen a designed pass by Petrino that saw every receiver break across the field to the sideline; it cleared an entire half of the field.

Last year he was playing backyard alot because I'm not sure he had any idea what he was doing; but by the A&M game it was clear they knew what they had and started blocking accordingly.

 

[Michigan Fan]

I pointed him out last year as a player that I really hate to be on UL...I thought he looked damn good last year - and he has built on it this year.

He is the one guy that if he continues to play at the level he has the past 4 weeks could make the jump early...this is his 3rd year out of HS...

 

[rivals1002]

Screw ul ....hope we destroy them!! But if Jackson starts they win. The ul troll above saying bama couldn't contain jaackson is laughable. I so hope you get the opportunity to find out. Bama would make ul look stupid. Face it tards, your school is great at nothing but hiring hookers and cheating in any manner possible!! Lil bro is such an appropriate name for a reason

Somebody has been rustled to the max.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

This perception that Lamar is playing backyard football is slowly getting dispelled; watch any number of his runs that spring for big yardage and in the vast majority of them they are designed. The 36 yarder in the first series was designed, the big 50 yarder against FSU that put cherry on top was designed and the two long ones against Syracuse were designed. Even the one he sprung in the fourth quarter against Clemson I believe was by design because I've never seen a designed pass by Petrino that saw every receiver break across the field to the sideline; it cleared an entire half of the field.

Last year he was playing backyard alot because I'm not sure he had any idea what he was doing; but by the A&M game it was clear they knew what they had and started blocking accordingly.

I think this could be true and the OL not being the ones doing the work also true at the same time.

Out scheming a defense and sending routes across the field or deep to clear out the secondary for your QB to take advantage doesn't really mean the OL is dominating and blowing holes open. Its likely that the OL is strategically dropping into pass protection on the designed run plays to fool the DL. Again, not a sign the OL are the ones making the run game possible.

 

[MEMEBLUE]

I'm a diehard CATS fan, but I was at the game last year with Louisville. If Jackson is healthy and plays they will name the score, Kentucky had no answer last year and they won't this year. Louisville will run the score up and it will get ugly.

 

[phenderson]

Always love these posts...its not that UK did anything good, its that UL wasn't themselves and kept screwing up...so stupid.

Turnovers were forced. ULs offense had turnover issues and UKs defense was good at creating turnovers. You didn't mention that UK threw 2 4th quarter INTs in 2014 and 1 in 2015...why is that?? Maybe, just maybe that should've been expected bc UL was an INT machine in 2014.....lets be consistent in our analysis shall we?

UK did many good things... they mixed up coverages, they pressured the QB with a 5th defender... they used zone coverages but Bolin made the decision, with a weak arm, to throw and instead of throwing away. Yes, Turnovers are a part of the game, just a like a weak OL or bad defense. That was in 2015. 4rth Quarter of 2015, Towells tossed an INT as well... buy the score was already a 2-score game... with very little time left. Different situation. UK had not stopped Jackson all game long. The fact of the matter is that Louisville had more TO's in those 2 games, than did UK... but the fact that we generated 961 yards of total offense versus 618 for UK despite having 7 turnovers to UK's 4, speaks volumes. A casual observer would see that Louisville starts these games, shaky, then warms up and then starts rolling. It happened at Clemson. Yes, 2014 was close... but 2015, with 300+ yards on the ground was a completely crazy game... The thing that stands out to me, is that with Bolin and\or Jackson in the game, Cards still moved the ball, last year, when they were not throwing it away. And until UK inserted Towells, they just did not move the ball. In comes Towells, and the Wildcats moved the ball. Sometimes new QB makes all the difference. Good Defensive Coordinators scheme for a particular QB and his tendencies... Barker started the game, Cards schemed for Barker... Cats schemed for Bolin and a pro-style QB. Yes, they schemed for Jackson in practice, but nothing, not FSU, not Clemson, not UNC State, nothing prepares anyone for the twitch on Jackson and his speed. Watsun comes close... but you can clearly see that Jackson has more speed and Athleticism than Watsun. And Jalen Hurts does not come close... UK players, last year, said it in the interviews "we prepared for Jackson, but nothing could get us ready for his speed".

 

[phenderson]

I think this could be true and the OL not being the ones doing the work also true at the same time.

Out scheming a defense and sending routes across the field or deep to clear out the secondary for your QB to take advantage doesn't really mean the OL is dominating and blowing holes open. Its likely that the OL is strategically dropping into pass protection on the designed run plays to fool the DL. Again, not a sign the OL are the ones making the run game possible.

I think the OL is vastly improved and close to being a dominating one, in another year, despite the losses. Its all about the system and the OL-men you plug into the system. Nobody has a team of 5 freshmen, that they start from day 1 and then see them through to graduation without any changes.... We will lose 3 guys off the OL, but there are 5 guys behind them, who are 2nd teamers only because the 1st teamers are perfect, and the 2nd teamers are a step away from being perfect, in that system. Our OL Coach is one of the best in the business... To say "its all jackson" is ridiculous... if that be the case, then he would not have been sacked 40 times last year, and Radcliff's YPC would have been 7.8ypc like they are this year. Dude has about 83 yards away from matching is 13 game total of 634 yards, in almost half as many carries.... That is OL... and scheme. Jeremy Smith had an 80 yard run against Duke... that was blocking up front. Cards line up the ball and run from I-formation, or from Pistol, or from Spread Option.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

UK did many good things... they mixed up coverages, they pressured the QB with a 5th defender... they used zone coverages but Bolin made the decision, with a weak arm, to throw and instead of throwing away. Yes, Turnovers are a part of the game, just a like a weak OL or bad defense. That was in 2015. 4rth Quarter of 2015, Towells tossed an INT as well... buy the score was already a 2-score game... with very little time left. Different situation. UK had not stopped Jackson all game long. The fact of the matter is that Louisville had more TO's in those 2 games, than did UK... but the fact that we generated 961 yards of total offense versus 618 for UK despite having 7 turnovers to UK's 4, speaks volumes. A casual observer would see that Louisville starts these games, shaky, then warms up and then starts rolling. It happened at Clemson. Yes, 2014 was close... but 2015, with 300+ yards on the ground was a completely crazy game... The thing that stands out to me, is that with Bolin and\or Jackson in the game, Cards still moved the ball, last year, when they were not throwing it away. And until UK inserted Towells, they just did not move the ball. In comes Towells, and the Wildcats moved the ball. Sometimes new QB makes all the difference. Good Defensive Coordinators scheme for a particular QB and his tendencies... Barker started the game, Cards schemed for Barker... Cats schemed for Bolin and a pro-style QB. Yes, they schemed for Jackson in practice, but nothing, not FSU, not Clemson, not UNC State, nothing prepares anyone for the twitch on Jackson and his speed. Watsun comes close... but you can clearly see that Jackson has more speed and Athleticism than Watsun. And Jalen Hurts does not come close... UK players, last year, said it in the interviews "we prepared for Jackson, but nothing could get us ready for his speed".

Having more yards and more turnovers makes perfect sense and really isn't impressive. UK had a 2 pick 6s and a scoop and score. That means UL have back to back offensive possessions 3x. Turnovers also put UK offense in short fields - giving the offense less room to work. ULs offense in general was better too, but the yardage with those turnovers is easily explainable.

UL prepared for Barker and he marched down on the first possession 80 yards. He played well until boom Williams went down with injury.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

I think the OL is vastly improved and close to being a dominating one, in another year, despite the losses. Its all about the system and the OL-men you plug into the system. Nobody has a team of 5 freshmen, that they start from day 1 and then see them through to graduation without any changes.... We will lose 3 guys off the OL, but there are 5 guys behind them, who are 2nd teamers only because the 1st teamers are perfect, and the 2nd teamers are a step away from being perfect, in that system. Our OL Coach is one of the best in the business... To say "its all jackson" is ridiculous... if that be the case, then he would not have been sacked 40 times last year, and Radcliff's YPC would have been 7.8ypc like they are this year. Dude has about 83 yards away from matching is 13 game total of 634 yards, in almost half as many carries.... That is OL... and scheme. Jeremy Smith had an 80 yard run against Duke... that was blocking up front. Cards line up the ball and run from I-formation, or from Pistol, or from Spread Option.

Jackson wasn't sacked 40 times. Bolin played a lot of QB as well.

 

[PushupMan]

He is the one guy that if he continues to play at the level he has the past 4 weeks could make the jump early...this is his 3rd year out of HS...

Not sure if you are talking about Bailey with that comment? Drew Bailey is 23 years old and will be 24 in mid-November. I fully expect him go to the NFL draft if he continues to have the type of season he has had so far this year.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Having more yards and more turnovers makes perfect sense and really isn't impressive. UK had a 2 pick 6s and a scoop and score. That means UL have back to back offensive possessions 3x. Turnovers also put UK offense in short fields - giving the offense less room to work. ULs offense in general was better too, but the yardage with those turnovers is easily explainable.

UL prepared for Barker and he marched down on the first possession 80 yards. He played well until boom Williams went down with injury.

I'm going to play this...IF we don't have a DB drop a WIDEOPEN int. in'14 UK wins...if Boom dosen't get hurt last yr. UK wins because Otis defense could do nothing with him, but that has nothing to do with this year.

 

[phenderson]

Jackson wasn't sacked 40 times. Bolin played a lot of QB as well.

• Bolin was sacked 12 times
• Jackson was sacked 26 times
• Bonnafon was sacked 3 times in the Auburn game alone

41 total sacks given up by the Cards last year, with a RS Freshman, 2 True Freshmen and a Walk-on RS Junior at Center, and a single Senior... in the first game of the season, I believe we played 8 different OL....

The thing to take away from it all is that Bolin Started several games and Jackson Started several games.

• 1st game of season was started by Bonnafon
• Next of the next 7 games were started by Jackson
• 5 games started by Bolin
• Texas A&M game started by Jackson...

The OL never really settled in, until final game of the season. Senior departed, everyone else came back. Thomas is 2nd team... Only Walk-on RS Senior Hughley, HUnter and Mahoni will be leaving this year. But Hunter and Mahoni didn't play much last year.

Christian, McNeil, Hughly, HUnter and Mahoni...
Only Hughly and Christian were returning starters from last year...

 

[Poetax]

If UofL doesn't put up 42+ by halftime I'll be shocked. They're just on another level, a championship level. Lamar Jackson elevates them to that championship level, but even if he wasn't there Petrino would have another capable QB starting. They're just light years better than UK at this point, as difficult as that is to say.

Nah you did that without even stuttering, lol.

 

[Michigan Fan]

Not sure if you are talking about Bailey with that comment? Drew Bailey is 23 years old and will be 24 in mid-November. I fully expect him go to the NFL draft if he continues to have the type of season he has had so far this year.

He gone....knew he was a 3 year to play 4 but at that age he has to go...

 

[ashleys handfull]

We gonna kick that birds gold teeth in