Toggle sidebar

Postseason Probability

What is the P (%) that we make the tournament?

  • Total voters
    0
R

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
4,222
207
47
We've had some discussion on what we would need to get in, and it seems mostly have centered around 10-11 conference wins. Depending on how OOC finishes, what our SOS looks like later, and whether / where we get quality wins.

So since we have a quiet week with one tuneup before Dayton... what's the probability of making the tournament this year? Poll here, or feel free to write if you prefer. I was probably at about 1 in 5 (20%) at the start of the season, right now I'm closer to 1 in 3 (~30 / 33% range). Our role players ex Mac have developed more than I expected, and our team defense is solid. However, the injuries have left us with a lack of depth inside, and I think the weak conference makes our path tougher.
 
M

Medill90

Junior
Jan 30, 2011
6,910
321
0
Before the season started and Falzon was out I thought we had a better chance this year than next.

Today, I think with Falzon, Rap and Gaines coming in the team will be more lethal that this year's.

But I think NU wins 10 -11 conference games this year, doesn't get blow out in any games, and gets picked for the tourney. They've got to win one or two games they are not supposed to win. And, they've got to beat all the teams they are supposed to beat. I know it states the obvious but getting past PSU, Minny, Nebraska and even Rutgers will be tougher outs than last year.

I think Collins' 2018 recruiting class is going to be sick, sick, sick. (like this kids say....not sick as a bad thing....but sick as a really good thing)
 
mickbula

mickbula

Junior
Jul 1, 2011
2,917
241
63
Pardon my french, but if Dererk can come back with effectiveness, we've got a good chance. Without him, I think it is wait until next year IMHO. Next year, will be the breakthrough year if all come back healthy.
 
S

Sec_112

Sophomore
Jun 17, 2001
6,599
195
63
Let's say they beat Dayton.

a) I don't think they do it unless Pardon returns in January. Any later? Forget it.

b) A HUGE piece of this is will be who they beat. They are going to need more than 10 wins if 10 of those wins are:

PSU
Minnesota
Nebraska (2)
Rutgers (2)
Iowa
Illinois (2)
Maryland

I'm looking for quality wins and hoping they find them. I'm not sure 12 wins gets them in if the other two are Michigan and OSU.

I'd feel much better about 11 wins if they lose to - let's say - Maryland and Iowa from the group above and get three wins from some combination of Michigan State, OSU, Purdue (2), and IU (2).

Chances of doing this with Pardon? I'm going with 20-40%, and hoping I'm dead wrong.
 
R

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
4,222
207
47
Sec.112 said:
Let's say they beat Dayton.

a) I don't think they do it unless Pardon returns in January. Any later? Forget it.

b) A HUGE piece of this is will be who they beat. They are going to need more than 10 wins if 10 of those wins are:

PSU
Minnesota
Nebraska (2)
Rutgers (2)
Iowa
Illinois (2)
Maryland

I'm looking for quality wins and hoping they find them. I'm not sure 12 wins gets them in if the other two are Michigan and OSU.

I'd feel much better about 11 wins if they lose to - let's say - Maryland and Iowa from the group above and get three wins from some combination of Michigan State, OSU, Purdue (2), and IU (2).

Chances of doing this with Pardon? I'm going with 20-40%, and hoping I'm dead wrong.
Click to expand...
Agree we definitely need Dererk back soonish otherwise we are probably going end up on the wrong side of .500 in conference.

Quality wins help, but keep in mind that bad losses are another line item the committee looks at, and they hurt. Trading one quality win for one bad loss is generally a good thing, but not to the extent that 10-8 with 3 quality wins could get us in while 12-6 with those 10 + Mich and OSU leaves us out. I think a couple notable wins could get us over the hump at 10-8, while 11-7 leaves us in very good shape regardless of the composition of that (provided we take care of business the rest of the way in OOC).

Side note, it seems like most people elsewhere think that IU Wiscy Purdue MSU Michigan OSU are all in, and that Maryland still is probably in. I think the B1G will likely be a 6-7 bid league this year, depending on many things I guess. Prob ~8 teams will be 9-9 or better, and maybe 6-7 will be 10-8 or better. To get to 10-8 we need a lot of things to go right, that would be an impressive feat to unseat one of those high quality teams (Mich OSU or Md) who was thought to be a shoe-in to the tournament at the start of the year. So some might overvalue the importance of getting to that 10-8 record (it doesn't guarantee us a spot), but I think the post above devalues how difficult that would be and how it would look to the committee.
 
R

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
4,222
207
47
ricko654321 said:
We've had some discussion on what we would need to get in, and it seems mostly have centered around 10-11 conference wins. Depending on how OOC finishes, what our SOS looks like later, and whether / where we get quality wins.

So since we have a quiet week with one tuneup before Dayton... what's the probability of making the tournament this year? Poll here, or feel free to write if you prefer. I was probably at about 1 in 5 (20%) at the start of the season, right now I'm closer to 1 in 3 (~30 / 33% range). Our role players ex Mac have developed more than I expected, and our team defense is solid. However, the injuries have left us with a lack of depth inside, and I think the weak conference makes our path tougher.
Click to expand...

Assigning linear midpoints to each bucket and doing some quick mental math, after 53 votes it looks like our collective average probability is 44%. The median is barely into the 40-60% bracket (the 2nd of the 15 that voted there), which would imply a similar number. The breakdown is 7 / 18 / 15 / 9 / 4, a pretty reasonable distribution given the boundaries. One might suspect there is some optimism bias to our overall views, but who knows. Maybe will check back in on this early in the conference season...

Thanks everyone for participating!
 
X

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
163
43
Fitzphile said:
bob will return after the next NU loss......
Click to expand...

Nope. Here and still on the bandwagon. I'm guessing it's too late for a medical RS for Pardon so I'm hoping tonight was a standard B1G anomaly and these guys will regroup.

Anybody else think Lindsey is like Pippen looking for his MJ?
 
N

NJCat

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2016
21,326
1,501
113
xyzbobxyz said:
I'm guessing it's too late for a medical RS for Pardon so I'm hoping tonight was a standard B1G anomaly and these guys will regroup.
Click to expand...

It is not too late for a medical redshirt. The rules state that a player cannot participate in more than 30% of the games, which rounds down to 9. So he is OK on that score. But the injury must be season ending, which according to what Collins has said is not the case. So look for him to return but lose part of another season of eligibility. Gotta feel bad for him losing parts of his first two seasons, first due to the attempted red shirt and now the hand injury.
 
X

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
163
43
Fitzphile said:
It is not too late for a medical redshirt. The rules state that a player cannot participate in more than 30% of the games, which rounds down to 9. So he is OK on that score. But the injury must be season ending, which according to what Collins has said is not the case. So look for him to return but lose part of another season of eligibility. Gotta feel bad for him losing parts of his first two seasons, first due to the attempted red shirt and now the hand injury.
Click to expand...

Very true. But I wonder how glass half full was the progosis. Did they ever say anything about Falzon before the season ending announcement?
 
N

NJCat

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2016
21,326
1,501
113
xyzbobxyz said:
Very true. But I wonder how glass half full was the progosis. Did they ever say anything about Falzon before the season ending announcement?
Click to expand...

Collins was never as specific about Aaron as he has been about Dererk. But you're right, until he suits up again he's a question mark.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom