And his results are as good as, and with maybe one exception, better than, any coach we have ever had at NU. And now we have general agreement of a rather high likelihood of being better this year, which would improve his standing in history. That does not sound like someone we want to fire. That being said, he needs the team to meet these expectations.
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- Thread starter NJCat
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You are confusing my intentions.
Having looked into last season's results very closely, it is clear to me that we underperformed our talent and this was primarily due to the coach's lineup decisions.
People base their perception of our players' talent based on the results on the court. I'm saying that those opinions are biased NEGATIVE because the players were put in losing situations.
If Collins sticks to 3 lineups this year ("Young with Beran", "Young with Nance" and "Nance with neither Young nor Beran") a lot of Northwestern fans, including many of you guys, will be saying things like "Buie has finally figured it out" or "Beran finally gets it" or "Audige is so much better this year."
And I will be saying "I'm glad Collins learned from his mistakes."
We'll see if he does.
Feel free to go on saying it, but your analysis has many previously stated limitations that you conveniently ignore. Even if we give you one or two more games that Collins “lost”, I am sure other coaches had the same issue in reverse - at least one. It just is not as big an issue as your analysis suggests. I know you will respond again, and I know I will not.
So if the team improves and specific players improve it will be only because Collins learned from his mistakes? Got it. Convenient that you will get to rail on CCC either way.
That's fine. You have your opinion. I have my data. You have raised issues with the data and the method. I have explained why I don't think your issues are significant.
There are coaches who get as much as they can out of their players.
My impression (without data) was that Bill Carmody could do this.
There are other coaches who cannot.
Last year the data said Chris Collins did not.
You aren't following the dialog. I will do the box score evaluation again this year. To me it is the best look into the dynamics of the team, because it is UNBIASED. It is quite possible that someone will step in for Kopp and do well enough that Beran and Nance don't get crushed like they did together last year. Other players should improve naturally, but get an additional boost if Collins uses better lineups this year.. I will be looking at what lineups work and what lineups don't work. And I will again report honestly based on what I see. If the Beran/Nance thing is still our top lineup and still getting creamed, I'm not going to blame Robbie Beran. If Ryan Young is constantly playing in a halfcourt offense with 4 guys who can't rebound, I'm not going to blame Ryan Young.
All I can tell you is that Collins needs to up his game. If he doesn't I will let you know. If he does, I will happily point it out. Last year is in the books. I'd give the coach a D+ for last season.
Having said all that, I expect 9 wins in the Big Ten and am hoping for more.
Oh, and Matt Nicholson had better get some minutes in relief of Ryan Young.
At this point I just throw in the Nicholson comment to make one guy laugh... but I forgot who that is.
I think Nicholson needs to get minutes this year. This would help reinforce the idea that we should have a true center on the court as much as possible and we only have Ryan Young at that position. Nance is a power forward and should play that position as much as possible.
So its more of a strategy and development issue. If Nicholson is subbing in for Young, I think thats a positive sign, as long as Young is healthy.
Gato has expressed a similar idea, if I recall correctly.
Winning is what matters. If Matt isn’t ready he shouldn’t be out there in meaningful minutes.
I was at the game last night. The psych up video did not even show Nicholson. I don't think Collins sees him as ready to contribute this year. He is not in the regular rotation. I think it would take an injury (God forbid) for him to get into the rotation.
"We need someone to step in for Kopp?" You're kidding, right? That's really the statement where you lost your one-trick-pony credibility. Not the Nicholson silliness.
Oh, who will we find to fill in the 9-41 for Kopp's last three games last year. Where will we find someone else to play average defense and barely rebound?
My personal favorite is singularly blaming Buie for the Minnesota loss. Kopp's 4-18 (1-6) had nothing to do with that, right? Neither did Audige's five turnovers and five fouls. No bias there.
Let's repeat this again: Pretty much the entire board agrees Collins needs to up his game. And it's a more complex answer than simply adjusting the rotation to get Young more minutes with Nance and less time for Beran.
Not that PWB needs me or anyone to defend himself. But I believe he meant someone replacing (semantics compared to stepping in) Kopp that will actually help the Beran/Nance combo on the boards. Seeing that the Beran/Nance combo seems to be a non negotiable for CC. That could mean a lineup with Williams at the 3, or some other, out of leftfield, option. But, alas, Williams is likely to be Beran's backup.
Also I think there's a misconception about the role Nicholson could play. It is tied to the Young/Nance combo. And it would mean 5 minutes or so a game to rest Young. Couple of minutes each half. But, again alas, Young does not need backup as Young is backup.
I love the attitude. Just cherry pick from a few games and misconstrue factual statements. Awesome. We're trying to have an adult discussion here.
Kopp was statistically our most effective player last year. When he was on the court, Kopp had the highest ratio of points scored to points allowed on the roster. And he played the most minutes.
There are reasons to say other guys were more effective, such as Young or Nance, but to do that you have to say Collins was putting bad lineups on the court. Otherwise you are stuck with "Kopp was our best player."
Buie did actually lose that game against Minnesota. maybe you should go back and watch the last 3 minutes. I find it almost pathetic that you would get upset about that. I like Boo Buie more than most on here, I'm guessing I like him more than you do.
As for Young with Nance and Beran, I have explained the impact that lineup selection has on our game results. The facts are the facts. But feel free to distort them and pretend they mean nothing.
Nicholson has never gotten a shot. When he does, then you can run your mouth.
You are correct on all accounts. Thanks for correcting the record for the drama queens. We have two centers. One is Ryan Young, the other is Matt Nicholson. Foul trouble happens. Injuries happen. Young needs a backup because he obviously should be the starting 5, with Nance backed by Beran at the 4. The coach has to stop this lunacy of always having one of his two best players (Nance and Young) on the bench... if he ever realizes that, we have a chance to succeed.
Thank you for posting that. If you think Kopp was the team's most effective player, that's all I need to know about whatever it is you're inventing.
You might want to check a couple more credible sources before making a statement like that. Basketball Reference's conference stats should more than prove that you might want to rethink this direction. During the conference, Kopp was not even top three in last year's rotation in offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares or win shares/40.
Agree with Sec 112. His defense was below average, poor rebounder for his size, couldn’t really pass or handle the ball. So his game was all about shooting. And he was bad, other than at the FT line.
I still believe he is be better shooter than his numbers last year. But until he actually puts those numbers up, the numbers are the only data we have.
Watching Berry on the defensive boards and perimeter defending against EIU, he is a step up from Kopp on that end. And he won’t be worse on the offensive end if he figures out to hit FTs. He doesn’t concentrate at the line.
Yeah, it's really bizarre how bad he is from the line. Maybe he should step back from the line and jack his throws from behind the 3 point line.
The scores don't lie. Thats why I rely on them. If you take the "points scored" vs "points allowed" for every guy in our rotation last year, Miller Kopp has the best ratio.
Thats what I am talking about and it is obviously a fact. I'm not a fan of Miller Kopp whatsoever. But the numbers are the numbers and Kopp played the most minutes of any guy on the roster. The team was most successful, in aggregate, when he was on the court, compared to any other player.
You just don't like it.
The stats you cite are essentially workarounds for people who don't have access to detailed play-by-play box scores. I started with those stats, the "Offensive Rating" the "Defensive Rating" and "Win Shares", looked into how they were calculated and moved on to something that requires much more work and is more meaningful. You are talking about numbers taken directly from a guy's box score line, then massaged into a rating. They make a lot of assumptions and miss ALL of the intangibles of a team game.
This explains the Defensive and Offensive Ratings you cite...
Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings | Basketball-Reference.com
How to calculate individual offensive and defensive ratings
www.basketball-reference.com
Maybe. But they actually provide details, theory and the complete mathematical equations.
If you believe your explanation has been comparable, so be it.
Miller Kopp had four points for Indiana last night. 1-for-4 shooting. Good luck to him there (except against NU), but don't miss him at all.
This is way worse than Skowronek. At least Ben graduated and helped the team win a division title. Kopp bailed right when the team was getting experienced and went to a conference team in Frigging Indiana. If he isn’t scoring he isn’t helping any team. It might be a blessing in disguise as Berry and Williams should more than replace his scoring.
They make this board seem like Downton Abbey style of mannerisms in comparison. And I've only browsed through them maybe 3 times.