A pretty objective/realistic report on the 2021-22 Wildcats.
Preview: BT Powerhouse
- Thread starter NJCat
- Start date
"[Elyjah Williams] is a graduate transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson and is listed at 6-foot-7 and 22 pounds."
And I thought _I_ was skinny in college!
You beat me to the punch. Usually the camera adds 10 pounds. In this case it added 200.
That article had some scary conjectures.
If Williams sees rotational time at the 5 position, I will probably empty my stomach and intestines in opposite directions simultaneously.
The lineup they project as the starters is just SCARY BAD. Nance, Beran, Williams, Audige and Buie????
I could walk over to NU, take my pick of players/lineups and slaughter that team.
Ok actually I can't, but thats not close to our best lineup. (Young, Nance, Buie, TBD, TBD)
Ryan Young just gets no respect. That article doesn't really mention him much. All I know is that the article says Chase Audige has proven he is a Big Ten caliber. I beg to differ. He doesn't put himself in position to score when he doesnt have the ball and he turns it over way too much. He defends and plays hard, but he must improve to be a major part of a winning team. Last year, NU performed its worst when Audige or Greer or Gaines were on the court. (Each of those guys had about a 0.87 ratio of Our Points / Their Points when they were on the floor)
If Ryan Young isnt a 25+ minutes player at the 5, the coach is a dope.
If Williams sees rotational time at the 5 position, I will probably empty my stomach and intestines in opposite directions simultaneously.
The lineup they project as the starters is just SCARY BAD. Nance, Beran, Williams, Audige and Buie????
I could walk over to NU, take my pick of players/lineups and slaughter that team.
Ok actually I can't, but thats not close to our best lineup. (Young, Nance, Buie, TBD, TBD)
Ryan Young just gets no respect. That article doesn't really mention him much. All I know is that the article says Chase Audige has proven he is a Big Ten caliber. I beg to differ. He doesn't put himself in position to score when he doesnt have the ball and he turns it over way too much. He defends and plays hard, but he must improve to be a major part of a winning team. Last year, NU performed its worst when Audige or Greer or Gaines were on the court. (Each of those guys had about a 0.87 ratio of Our Points / Their Points when they were on the floor)
If Ryan Young isnt a 25+ minutes player at the 5, the coach is a dope.
I look forward to your minutes on the court together feedback from Game 1. My early prediction is the First guy off the bench will have the highest +/-.
Not sure why you would make that prediction, but it is interesting to consider.
Or is that a subtle way of saying Ryan Young will be first off the bench?
In this preview, the writer highlights challenges from last season:
The team’s biggest issue was its underwhelming and inconsistent offensive production. The defense was there, but Northwestern finished 132nd in offensive productivity and was horrendous in a number of related categories, including 129th in three-point percentage, 335th in offensive rebounding rate, and 170th in block rate. The team’s perimeter game was a mess and its interior game was even rougher.
My question is this: With NU's length and improved athleticism, should we be crashing the offensive boards more regularly, or is it too important for our teams to prevent transition points and get setup in the defensive half court?
I love getting offensive boards (and hate giving them up), so I'm biased, but I don't know if data or analysis would back up my preferences.
The team’s biggest issue was its underwhelming and inconsistent offensive production. The defense was there, but Northwestern finished 132nd in offensive productivity and was horrendous in a number of related categories, including 129th in three-point percentage, 335th in offensive rebounding rate, and 170th in block rate. The team’s perimeter game was a mess and its interior game was even rougher.
My question is this: With NU's length and improved athleticism, should we be crashing the offensive boards more regularly, or is it too important for our teams to prevent transition points and get setup in the defensive half court?
I love getting offensive boards (and hate giving them up), so I'm biased, but I don't know if data or analysis would back up my preferences.
I don't know if it's a coaching thing or not, because from the 2015-16 season through 17-18 we were middle of the pack nationally in offensive rebounding, which coincided with the careers of Olah, Law, Lumpkin, Skelly and Pardon, and the past three seasons we have been abysmal.
So I don't know if it's Collins sensing we don't have the horses to crash the boards and play decent defense or if we just don't have players with the mentality to crash the boards.
Players with an OReb% of 5.0 or more by season:
13-14 - Olah, Cerina, Lumpkin
14-15 - Olah, Kreisberg, Skelly, Lumpkin, Law
15-16 - Olah, Van Zegeren, Pardon, Skelly, Lumpkin, Falzon, Taphorn
16-17 - Pardon, Benson, Skelly, Lumpkin
17-18 - Pardon, Benson, Skelly
18-19 - Pardon, Benson
19-20 - Young, Jones, Beran
20-21 - Young
I'm pretty sure it's a conscious coaching decision. I'm just trying to decide if it's a reasonable one or not.
We also seem to lack guys with the "motor" to crash the boards. Pardon and Skelly had unlimited energy for rebounds and put backs. We just don't have the same kind of high energy bigs.
If your team isn't capable of getting back to stop transition, I get the approach. I just think this is not one of those teams. I think we could send at least 3 to crash the offensive boards and still stop transition. I think the extra offensive possessions could more than compensate for the transition vulnerability, but I'm not a Power 5 coach.
This is another pretty solid preview of the upcoming season:
Great article. 90% of it is something I could write, if only I were as eloquent as the author.
Some relatable quotes:
"Has Chris Collins finally entered a “put up or shut up” year in Evanston?"
"This is it for Chris Collins: NIT or bust."
Well, yeah. When has enough time elapsed that you can't take the excuses anymore?
"Northwestern has run a sloppy offense, shot the ball poorly, and seen its assist/TO ratios drop"
"While players need to execute, I don’t see them in an offense or positions that I believe is actually giving Northwestern a chance to realize its full potential."
"Northwestern has absolutely no identity on offense, something that starts at the top. A few years after showing a willingness to transition into a 1-4 high set to juice the offense, the ‘Cats have fallen back on stale, boring pick-and-roll sets that try to space the floor but lack the shooters and/or slashers to actually make that happen."
This has been widely discussed on this board. From lineups that are very, very debatable, to a style of play conceived for players we do not have. And probably never will. Especially the "slashers". Those really fast, athletic dudes who keep choosing other programs.
"Sets where Nance or Young get touches in the post but where the ball keeps flowing throughout the offense allow Northwestern to overcome the usual talent deficits"
Yep. Modern basketball, motion offense, bla bla bla. Built for the rosters of Villanova, Baylor, etc. While lesser physically gifted teams need to find other ways. Author seems to defend the Princeton offense as a solution. I don't agree at all. Especially in the 30 second shot clock era. But the ball keep flowing is key. And Young/Nance are good options, when getting touches, to get the defense unbalanced. Unbalanced defense allows ball movement while players try to catch up with their defensive assignments.
"Northwestern could be sitting even higher—think 8-12 or 9-11 in conference—garnering some NCAA Tournament bubble love."
2 of the 4 writers make predictions of 9 and 10 wins. The schedule is favorable. 2 games against MN, PSU and NE are as favorable as it's going to get in the B1G.
I am getting myself carried away. Typical NU fan. Hope springs eternal. Even if we (almost) always end up disappointed.
"THIS year, Northwestern, now with their best recruits in program history having become veterans"
Some relatable quotes:
"Has Chris Collins finally entered a “put up or shut up” year in Evanston?"
"This is it for Chris Collins: NIT or bust."
Well, yeah. When has enough time elapsed that you can't take the excuses anymore?
"Northwestern has run a sloppy offense, shot the ball poorly, and seen its assist/TO ratios drop"
"While players need to execute, I don’t see them in an offense or positions that I believe is actually giving Northwestern a chance to realize its full potential."
"Northwestern has absolutely no identity on offense, something that starts at the top. A few years after showing a willingness to transition into a 1-4 high set to juice the offense, the ‘Cats have fallen back on stale, boring pick-and-roll sets that try to space the floor but lack the shooters and/or slashers to actually make that happen."
This has been widely discussed on this board. From lineups that are very, very debatable, to a style of play conceived for players we do not have. And probably never will. Especially the "slashers". Those really fast, athletic dudes who keep choosing other programs.
"Sets where Nance or Young get touches in the post but where the ball keeps flowing throughout the offense allow Northwestern to overcome the usual talent deficits"
Yep. Modern basketball, motion offense, bla bla bla. Built for the rosters of Villanova, Baylor, etc. While lesser physically gifted teams need to find other ways. Author seems to defend the Princeton offense as a solution. I don't agree at all. Especially in the 30 second shot clock era. But the ball keep flowing is key. And Young/Nance are good options, when getting touches, to get the defense unbalanced. Unbalanced defense allows ball movement while players try to catch up with their defensive assignments.
"Northwestern could be sitting even higher—think 8-12 or 9-11 in conference—garnering some NCAA Tournament bubble love."
2 of the 4 writers make predictions of 9 and 10 wins. The schedule is favorable. 2 games against MN, PSU and NE are as favorable as it's going to get in the B1G.
I am getting myself carried away. Typical NU fan. Hope springs eternal. Even if we (almost) always end up disappointed.
"THIS year, Northwestern, now with their best recruits in program history having become veterans"
I'm sure you take some tiny bit of satisfaction from unbiased writers saying "Yeah Gato is right."
But Ryan Young is in a boot and that fact alone is alarming. He is the key to our success.
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I do. But would trade it for things coming together, ending with a 13-7 record and admitting Collins is a genius. That all the pain led to a magical season where Beran changed into a unicorn flying freely while slashing opponents around the Welsh Ryan.
As it is, I'm just hopeful we could get to 9 wins and that being enough to sneak into the tournament.
Funny thing is, despite all the complaints from some about a lack of talent, I feel we would all be less stunned by making the tournament than we were when it first happened. And when it happened we had a decent season the prior year. We made the tournament and magically BMac, Lindsey, Law and Pardon became so much better than the guys we have now.
PS-Regarding Young, don't want to sound overly dramatic or hyperbolic... but if he misses most of the games I feel our season might be over before it even started
I think Young will be back soon. Also, I think Williams gives us a piece we didn't have last season, so we'll have more options down low. That said, I love Ry-M-C-A, as the writer dubbed him.
I obviously don't know much about Williams' game. But, like you, I am excited about what I saw.
I wish CC would go back to freshman Robbie Beran, when he was clearly seen as a stretch 3.
FWIW, ESPN mentions the NU coaching seat as the only hot one in the B1G.
That same snippet says that league coaches think NU could make a push to finish in the top half of the league.
I agree with that assessment. Which reinforces this is a season with more expectations than just rebuilding. Which, in turn, explains why the seat might be hot if CC does not deliver a decent season.
We have too many "above average" players to have a bad year.
9 wins if the new guys don't do very much and Berry improves (a virtual certainty)..
Significant contributions from Williams, Nicholson, Simmons, Barnhizer or Roper and we should win 10-12.
I guess if Nance or Young gets hurt, things don't look so good.
Non conference. worst case scenario 7-3. best case 10-0. expected 8-2 or 9-1
Conference... expected 9-11.
Overall we should be about 17-13 or 18-12.
If we get a couple unfortunate breaks, we end up 15-15 or 16-14.
If its a catastrophe, we end up 12-18.
If things go well, we finish 20-10.
If it goes really well we finish 22-8.
Conference... expected 9-11.
Overall we should be about 17-13 or 18-12.
If we get a couple unfortunate breaks, we end up 15-15 or 16-14.
If its a catastrophe, we end up 12-18.
If things go well, we finish 20-10.
If it goes really well we finish 22-8.
I don't know about a "majority", but as I said "we have too many above average players" to have a bad year.
Young, Nance, Buie and Berry are all "above average" Big Ten players this year. Thats 4 guys. Even if you have 2 average players and 2 below average players in your rotation, you can't really have a bad year unless the good players get hurt.
The standard for that assessment is their performance on the court last year, after you correct for the disadvantaged lineups their coach chose for them.
I thought we all generally agree Nance is the only guy who would start on another Big10 team. That won’t help your conclusion of our having “too many” (which sounded to me like a majority of) above-average players.
Joe Lunardi released a list/rank, by conference, of all teams.
We are ranked #11 in the B1G, #59 nationally. But what stood out to me is how close #8 to #11 teams are. Which is why I believe we can win 11 games, will win at least 9.
Full article:
We are ranked #11 in the B1G, #59 nationally. But what stood out to me is how close #8 to #11 teams are. Which is why I believe we can win 11 games, will win at least 9.
- Michigan (4)
- Purdue (6)
- Illinois (10)
- Ohio State (15)
- Maryland (20)
- Michigan State (25)
- Indiana (28)
- Rutgers (47)
- Iowa (51)
- Wisconsin (57)
- Northwestern (59)
- Penn State (74)
- Nebraska (77)
- Minnesota (117)
Full article:
When only two starters MIGHT start on an average B10 team, nobody would define that as having "many" above-average players.
You don't have to artificially inflate the talent level to promote your idea of dumping Collins. They're his players. He owns the results.