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Projections May 23rd

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STUCKNBIG10

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2006
7,302
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I just don't understand it. We beat UF by a ton, then lost by a ton, and lost a closely contested game on Sunday. UF is the #3 RPI team, they were playing at home. If UK was a national seed last week, then they should be a national seed this week barring a bad performance in Hoover.
 
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Comebakatz3

Heisman
Aug 8, 2008
40,977
30,819
113
STUCKNBIG10 said:
I just don't understand it. We beat UF by a ton, then lost by a ton, and lost a closely contested game on Sunday. UF is the #3 RPI team, they were playing at home. If UK was a national seed last week, then they should be a national seed this week barring a bad performance in Hoover.
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I wonder if the fact that LSU swept MSU had anything to do with us dropping. It may be that they really feel that only two SEC teams will be national seeds.

Here is the thing with Stanford... they will be playing 3 more games guaranteed. All of those games are against Washington State (103rd in RPI). They are projected to win all of those games on the road. IMO, this shouldn't move the needle a whole lot for them.

On the other hand, UK will first face a team ranked 34th in RPI. If they win that they are likely to face the 8th best RPI team. They win again and they are likely facing another top 25 RPI team (possibly LSU again). So, IMO, UK has a lot more of a chance to move the needle and improve their resume compared to Stanford.

However, this all comes down to whether or not the committee wants to put in 3 SEC teams or 2, and whether they want another western team to be a national seed. The problem for UK is that right now that is the most fair top 8 possible. 2 Pac 12, 2 Big 12, 2 SEC, and 2 ACC. I think the committee would have a hard time changing that up. As for UK, if we beat LSU one or two more times I don't know how in the hell they get the nod over us when we beat them heads up the majority of the time.
 
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Comebakatz3

Heisman
Aug 8, 2008
40,977
30,819
113
By the way, that regional is freaking brutal. Florida State just won 2 of 3 from Louisville at Louisville and might have swept them in all three but for the rain. Indiana beat Louisville last week and are a top 30 RPI team with some great quality wins. Kent State is a team that has danced this dance before and has 35 wins on the season, although none against the top 50.
 
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Black Diamond Cat

All-Conference
Apr 9, 2016
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Honestly, I do not think this projection is very accurate. They keep wanting to put FSU in our region, but I can see them in Baton Rouge or Fayetteville before Lexington. I look for Indiana to be out west or down south, Nebraska and Michigan both finished ahead of them.
 
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Lukasz0brzut

All-Conference
Oct 3, 2011
7,065
3,391
60
What sucks is if we don't get a national seed it's going to be inked that we'll get Louisville in a Super Regional.

Not that we can't beat them but just same ole same it seems like.
 
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STUCKNBIG10

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2006
7,302
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Comebakatz3 said:
By the way, that regional is freaking brutal. Florida State just won 2 of 3 from Louisville at Louisville and might have swept them in all three but for the rain. Indiana beat Louisville last week and are a top 30 RPI team with some great quality wins. Kent State is a team that has danced this dance before and has 35 wins on the season, although none against the top 50.
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Agree. Would be just an awful draw. Compare that to UL who gets Michigan and Binghamton as their 2 and 3 seeds???
 
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STUCKNBIG10

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2006
7,302
2,861
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Black Diamond Cat said:
Honestly, I do not think this projection is very accurate. They keep wanting to put FSU in our region, but I can see them in Baton Rouge or Fayetteville before Lexington. I look for Indiana to be out west or down south, Nebraska and Michigan both finished ahead of them.
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I think you're right on FSU. The committee almost always opts for geography (which is why it's a lock that we'll be in UL's super if we don't get a national seed of our own), so I think they could send Vandy to UL, send FSU to Hattiesburg or Baton Rouge.

I do think Indiana and Michigan are both coming to UK or UL for their regional. Just depends on if they give us UM or IU.
 
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Black Diamond Cat

All-Conference
Apr 9, 2016
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STUCKNBIG10 said:
I think you're right on FSU. The committee almost always opts for geography (which is why it's a lock that we'll be in UL's super if we don't get a national seed of our own), so I think they could send Vandy to UL, send FSU to Hattiesburg or Baton Rouge.

I do think Indiana and Michigan are both coming to UK or UL for their regional. Just depends on if they give us UM or IU.
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Probably Michigan, we played Indiana at home earlier.
 
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Comebakatz3

Heisman
Aug 8, 2008
40,977
30,819
113
By the way, Clemson lost to Duke last night. Dropped them one spot in the RPI to 10th. They've lost 6 of their last 8. I think that loss really hurts them in terms of getting a national seed. In fact, I see no real way that they should get one at this point. Still, it is possible I suppose. Our biggest threats are still Southern Miss and Stanford. So. Miss plays tonight against UTSA, whom they swept just last weekend. Stanford doesn't play until the weekend, but might as well not play considering they are playing a team with an RPI of 104.
 
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sluggercatfan

Heisman
Aug 17, 2004
35,953
29,630
0
Comebakatz3 said:
By the way, Clemson lost to Duke last night. Dropped them one spot in the RPI to 10th. They've lost 6 of their last 8. I think that loss really hurts them in terms of getting a national seed. In fact, I see no real way that they should get one at this point. Still, it is possible I suppose. Our biggest threats are still Southern Miss and Stanford. So. Miss plays tonight against UTSA, whom they swept just last weekend. Stanford doesn't play until the weekend, but might as well not play considering they are playing a team with an RPI of 104.
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I'm not an expert , but I've been telling you all they are a fraud.
 
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jimisize1

All-Conference
May 5, 2008
1,908
1,484
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So I have rookie question. Louisville will get a national seed and host a super regional right? Will U.K. definitely be in that region if they do not get a national seed?
 
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Big_Blue_1018

All-Conference
Oct 5, 2014
2,472
1,713
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UKFAN4L said:
So I have rookie question. Louisville will get a national seed and host a super regional right? Will U.K. definitely be in that region if they do not get a national seed?
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No. Kentucky at worst will host their own regional. There's a good chance that they will be paired across from Louisville in the bracket if UK is not a national seed.
 
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jimisize1

All-Conference
May 5, 2008
1,908
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Big_Blue_1018 said:
No. Kentucky at worst will host their own regional. There's a good chance that they will be paired across from Louisville in the bracket if UK is not a national seed.
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OK, thank you. I'm trying to figure out when UK will play so I can bring my kids down from Ohio. Thanks!
 
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Comebakatz3

Heisman
Aug 8, 2008
40,977
30,819
113
UKFAN4L said:
So I have rookie question. Louisville will get a national seed and host a super regional right? Will U.K. definitely be in that region if they do not get a national seed?
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National seed means top 8. They host a regional and if they make it out of the regional they also host a super regional. 9-16 are 1 seeds that get to host a regional. It's assumed that if Kentucky isn't top 8 then they will be paired across the bracket from Louisville where they'd face them in a super regional assuming both teams win their regional.
 
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Lukasz0brzut

All-Conference
Oct 3, 2011
7,065
3,391
60
my prediction is that at the end of the day UK gets screwed out of a national seed.

1.) not being relevant in the baseball landscape (as of this year)
2.) geography (UL, UF, LSU, UNC)
 
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