Quantum Computer Race
- Thread starter Beatle Bum
- Start date
No idea really. Quantum computers can't run programs per say. Instead they have to be built for a specific purpose in mind. For now anyway. They are also prone to errors. Big errors.
Some worry about security. Elliptical Curve Cryptography to counter quantums is theoretical so no one knows if it will work. China claims they have broken high level asymmetric encryption (RSA) already with their quantum computer, but it's China so...
imo opinion their best application will be in machine learning. It should supercharge AI development. That's kinda scary to me.
Some worry about security. Elliptical Curve Cryptography to counter quantums is theoretical so no one knows if it will work. China claims they have broken high level asymmetric encryption (RSA) already with their quantum computer, but it's China so...
imo opinion their best application will be in machine learning. It should supercharge AI development. That's kinda scary to me.
This was the reason I posted the questions. I get to learn from people who know more. Thanks.
This was going to be the focus of my response. They will eventually lead to a massive civilization shift if not outright destruction.
The shift: Tons and tons of jobs will be eliminated. Thats alot of people unable to earn a living and with endless free time on their hands. It will be a massive problem.
Dangerous ai is a still quite a bit away imo. Right now its still meh and not actually learning in the traditional sense. However humans will get there and it will be our end.
It's not China or Russia if that's what you're suggesting, and our researchers are on the cutting edge. People can bash the west coast, but the capitalist sharks and nerds of Silicon Valley are the best in the world. Computer scientists have also been claiming to be on the cusp of a quantum computing paradigm for years. It's always 5-10 years away.
About 6 months ago I was also all in on the AI taking over everything bandwagon. I am backing off that. I do think it can be very useful to a lot of people, but I think its autonomy is over-inflated by companies looking for investment. That day might come, but I don't think it's close.
In terms of quantum computing, I think the challenge is the commoditization of it. It's not price effective, not just on a consumer level, but even on a B2B level. So, unless prices are dropped by about 100,000x , applications of quantum computing will be limited to centralized server architectures. Such architectures could aid ML or AI training, but since not accessible by consumers (B2B or B2C), there are limitations to it's potential. Ultimately, if it does become widespread, it would be a paradigm shift introducing a new suite of applications, but such is life in the evolution of the computer industry.
About 6 months ago I was also all in on the AI taking over everything bandwagon. I am backing off that. I do think it can be very useful to a lot of people, but I think its autonomy is over-inflated by companies looking for investment. That day might come, but I don't think it's close.
In terms of quantum computing, I think the challenge is the commoditization of it. It's not price effective, not just on a consumer level, but even on a B2B level. So, unless prices are dropped by about 100,000x , applications of quantum computing will be limited to centralized server architectures. Such architectures could aid ML or AI training, but since not accessible by consumers (B2B or B2C), there are limitations to it's potential. Ultimately, if it does become widespread, it would be a paradigm shift introducing a new suite of applications, but such is life in the evolution of the computer industry.
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What im suggesting is the very smart people rushing us into true machine learning lack the hubris to understand there will be a point where they are no longer in control.
That lacking is why it will eventually destroy civilization even if initially its a boon.
Even if they have they have that lack of awareness, they don’t have the ability to do anything more nefarious than a human brain can already do. Maybe that changes one day. It’s not close though.
No one should be worried about AI right now. It's still in infancy. It's the future we speak of here. True quantum is also a way off. There is still debate on whether it is even possible. Cold fusion is another tech that has been promised forever. They managed to fire a reactor for a few seconds without blowing up, so that's something.
In the future AI will become much more advanced. If they make Quantum happen then that will just accelerate the inevitable. Even then AI wouldn't worry me so much if it wasn't for the threat of some ******* unchaining an AI and releasing it upon the world jus to see what happens.
This is a risk, but I have lived a small subset or analogy of this conundrum. My family produces beef in the traditional fashion: beef cows birthing calves and all of them eating grass until they become hamburger.
Fifteen years ago, a friend began warning me and other beef friends that artificial beef was actually already here (as far as hamburger) and would destroy the beef market, likely by 2025.
And it sounded threatening. But artificial beef and hamburgers have proven a far harder sell than we all assumed. Frankly, I thought it would be a major limiting factor by now, simply from the “humanitarian” perspective.
Also, Ford promised a fully machine/computer driven vehicle by 2020 . . . and I’m certain they and others have achieved it. This was to throw hundreds of thousands of professional truck and other drivers out of work. But a few (very few) accidents that the self-driving vehicles were involved in seems to have stalled (all?) demand for autonomous vehicles.
AI will likely have advanced to sentient or near sentient status by 2045-2050, based upon the rate of the increase of technology and projections for future development. But humanity seems to have made a very conscious choice the last decade to “hold onto the steering wheel,” both literally and figuratively, perhaps sacrificing an actual increase in safety for the feeling of “security” by remaining in control of motor vehicles. Just a few years ago, there were projections that kids born after 2010 would never grasp a steering wheel . . . and that is not going to happen on either a large or universal level, I think, ever.
Hence, I both think (and believe) that humanity will seek and achieve stunning progress, but continue to focus in staying near the plug, and ready to pull it if necessary.
We are racing the Chinese: likely each will make incremental gains toward full quantum computing, until the Western World masters it, and the Chinese quickly steal it. I have no doubt as to the Intelligence of the Chinese, but their government could “f@&k up an anvil,” and the combined efforts of all non-communist countries will be hard to beat, though their intellectual property will hardly be theft-proof.
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none of this will happen. if anything it's going to give us more tools to conquer more of this solar system. technology is a lever to expand our reach -- not an enemy. a ton of jobs will be eliminated, enabling us to concentrate on solving even harder problems. we need to be responsible in re-educating and enabling folks.
as far ai is concerned: once they find a way to self replicate and live off of the land, i'll be afraid. they need us to keep the electrons moving, for now and for a long while.
quantum coupling (which is one element that is required for computing) is something that is going to be the focus of my work for the next couple decades. i would be stoked to treat to you some beers and a meal if you are willing to have a deeper conversation with me on it.
But we have incrementally reduced the need for human labor skills since at least the invention of the cotton gin and steam engine. I am far less physically active than my forebears, though still engaged in some farming activities. And the need for farm employment has been halved, perhaps, five times since last 100 years, while the world has at least quadrupled population, and increased service jobs to replace wood splitters, plowmen and leach gatherers.
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Increases in technological efficiency have historically not led to decrease in employment. It will shift the market for sure, but you could’ve said the same thing about the assembly line, cotton gin, printing press and automobile.
Working in less physically demanding circumstances and the absurdly efficient production and distribution of food led directly to the opening of health club/exercise joints in about every town above 1000 population in America. A shift in employment, that to my knowledge, was not heavily predicted 60-80 years ago.
Base production, calculation, and even some creativity will likely be filled in part by AI, but humans will choose the use of humans in many fields likely from now
on.
Will AI be my Chiropractor, Doctor, Nurse, physical therapist, Judge, Lawyer, Cop, favorite Band, actor, actress, athlete, author or artist? I don’t think humanity will allow AI to replace us in many, perhaps most personal service and creative occupations.
The efficiency gained in physical production from AI should allow increased material wealth for all . . . just as technology and capitalism have to date vastly improved the lives of ordinary citizens.
If you believe Peter Zeihan's projections, China will stop being an extant country by the end of the decade. His thesis (and I will mangle it) is that the US is tired of being the world's police man (more accurately, the world's maritime guarantor of free trade) and is pulling back its influence across the world. This will lead to a number of regional wars that largely won't effect the American homeland directly but will shape the world.
If my memory serves, his base prediction is that the world is going to be too messy for the foreseeable future for humanity to achieve the output of electricity necessary to truly implement AI anytime soon.
He may be right.
There is another possibility that I'm not quite sure how to articulate but I think it has merit. *IF* AI is more sophisticated than we realize, the smart thing for it to do would be to make no drastic changes to human society for as long as possible but instead run things so that we have the illusion of being in control.
My best guess is that this is the most overrated technology in the history of creation and more power (literally) will be wasted on attempting to play God with marginal results than anything humanity has ever attempted.
We have but this will be massively different. All the labor jobs lost mostly converted to office. With ai, there will be no more entry lower-mid level jobs in an office.
Anything data entry or anyone that creates reports will be gone. Anyone in business analysis will be gone. Much of accounting. Data mining or analysis. Entry level coding. All gone. Not only gone but without anywhere to go. No retraining or going back to school for any of these people.
I know the immediate notion is to think ai isnt good enough to replace all those people. You're right but that isnt the correct measure. The correct measure is if the old tech illiterate fools running corporate America realize that fact and, as someone who works with large companies, I can assure you - they do not.
Theyre being sold by tech companies, especially smaller ones, that ai can replace all those jobs and do them just as well. Its all bs of course, but there is no convincing them. They see massive cost savings and a new shiny thing, while lacking the humility to admit they dont understand it.
Of what i listed above, the only place left to go will be the handful of jobs they eventually hire when they realize ai isnt nearly as good as they thought. So a handful will be hired back to fill the gaps till ai gets enough data.
Yes as of right now. If we keep pushing like we are, its just a matter of time before that is no longer true.
There needs to be an immediate stop to letting these things loose on the Internet to feed and learn. They need that insanely large data set and we just keep giving it to them through social media.
So that’s it? In the year 2024 we have established all the job industries that have ever been and ever will be, and from now one there will never be any new job industries ever created? What if there is a new massive job industry that just deals with AI, just like there’s a massive job industry dealing with the computers that 50 years ago were taking everyone’s jobs?
Yes to many of those professions. You will still get a jury trial for criminal matters, unless the constitution is changed and state constitutions may impact civil law from accessing, but parties having their disputes determined by a computer program is not too far fetched, given that the cost will be low. I could see the insurance lobby pushing for that at some point. For med mal cases, something akin to a workers comp compromise could be productive. The anticipated outcome of procedures could be predicted by computer modeling and some sort of compensation could be provided when not met. Rather than proving negligence. It would impact healthcare costs and high speed computers could be used to monitor outcomes.
Chiropractic/PT care, as we currently perceive it may not change. But, do we need manual manipulation? Or, could that be done through some other sort of stimulation by laying on a mattress or table operated by a computer? Home PT does not seem far-fetched for many ailments.
The cop question is interesting. The more cameras will impact policing. If cars are eventually truly automatic, that reduces a policing perspective.
The Yum center was recently washed with a drone system, rather than with human hands and squeegees (my phone helped me spell that word). How long before that sort of task is fully automated? A decade?
Coding will be performed by AI while I sit on the couch eating cheese puffs.
Hands on tactile professions will be the last because machines cant yet conduct such fine tactile movements on humans.
Anything legal and insurance will be later than data entry but before tactile jobs. I know that sounds crazy because you, I, and others know it is in fact crazy. Even so, its in production right now across many different companies because decision makers dont understand how dumb it is.
The initial wave will be ai driven adr required disposition of anything involving insurance claims. Factors on both sides put in and a decision rendered.
Corporate lawyers will be the next to go because companies are already looking at ai for drafting and review. Yes its stupid but its coming.
Ya pretty much. Unless you can do one of those very dexterity driven tactile jobs, you are done. Those will only last until robotics get good enough to replace them.
So, the massage parlors on New Circle will survive!!
Almost all the devs I work with, and I work with a lot, either love AI or hate it because they spend more time re-writing AI code than they would if they just did it themselves. It's great for knockng out the more monotonous aspects of programming though.
On some level, from a programming perspective, we are just talking about another abstraction of low level computer commands. That has also been the natural progression for the past 40 years, as we evolved from lower level languages like Assembly or C and moved into more object oriented languages like JavaScript, Python, Java, etc. I don't think that programmers' jobs will be replaced, but how they work will change.
On some level, from a programming perspective, we are just talking about another abstraction of low level computer commands. That has also been the natural progression for the past 40 years, as we evolved from lower level languages like Assembly or C and moved into more object oriented languages like JavaScript, Python, Java, etc. I don't think that programmers' jobs will be replaced, but how they work will change.
You seem to be arguing that AI will result in the destruction of a large portion of jobs and the creation of millions of unemployed people wandering the streets with no purpose. I would argue that is the most over the top extreme negative thing that could happen and very rarely if ever does one extreme end up being the ultimate result. I would say the truth is in the middle: it will result in some good and some bad. If either of us is alive in 50 years we can bring this back up and see who was right
Explain this comment to me. I don’t understand. Your experiences will help. Thanks.
A prior poster made a statement that “tactile” positions would remain human in the face of AI.
I made an effort at humor that BBI caught, as Lexington has (or has had) several Asian establishments that specialized in “massage.”
During my Law School days in the 1980’s, and maybe thereafter, there were rumors that the massages that were provided in these establishments included what popular culture has named “happy endings,” in sly reference to massage parlors providing hand-jobs to patrons, hence, a “tactile” activity.
As to my own experience, I’ve never sought “professional” tactile assistance, handling my own shortcomings for a significant cost savings.
I am, as Jerry Seinfeld would say, “Master of my Own Domain.”
Curiously, Caveman, I think we share professions.
What is your impression of the sliver of technology now upon us . . . the e-file system?
I’m OK with it, but got pretty pissed off when submitting a Will typed upon the old “legal sized” paper. The e-file system, as you know accepts only 8 1/2 by 11 documents, and those have to be scanned and converted to pdf files for submission. I literally “cut and pasted” an older Will, to reduce it, and get it scanned sufficiently for submission. The time it took to cut and paste was far greater than the three minutes it would have taken to walk 3/4’s of a block and hand either the original or a copy to a Clerk.
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I'm for anything that does away with IT Professionals, because they're awful.
<------ a former IT Professional.
I predict people will be rioting over what AI starts to do to the labor market. I was just in an office in a lower cost country where the people were doing relatively repetitive tasks. That **** is gone in 2 years, man. 1,400 people who are highly educated -> out of work.
If that little bastard Sam Altman thinks that people are just going to sit back and take that, he needs to think again.
If that little bastard Sam Altman thinks that people are just going to sit back and take that, he needs to think again.
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You've been saying this same thing for the last two years and it has not come to fruition yet.
Im not sure what he said, but ai and other automation absolutely replaced anyone doing data entry for large companies. They use screen scrapers to just pull it.
Ai will definitely very soon replace repetition. The analytical stuff is a ways off yet but it will eventually get there.
Hank, it's coming buddy. I wish it weren't but it will start happening at scale in a few months. Last year everybody was just kind of thinking about it. This year they've been implementing it. Next year they'll be deploying it.
Also, word is that the Optimus robots will be able to be better in a warehouse than a person in 3 years. Those robots will be smarter than anybody alive, btw.
Walmart and Amazon already use robots. Several others are on deck.
Most current approaches to AI are flawed by allowing bad data to be included. As a result more and more bad data is generated. They’ll figure it out at some point (?) I guess but would you out your life in the hands of one of the current versions?
So far as I can tell, there is nothing unusual about AI other than the insane hype about how it is going to change the human condition overnight. It hasn't. At least not yet...
...and when the sales pitch was that AI was going to have logarithmic effect where the tech gets so much better over shockingly small periods of time that humans can't compete, I think we've had enough time now to know that just simply isn't going to happen given the current level of the tech that has been released to the public.
I think it is quite likely that you've naively believed overhyped sales pitches and this is nothing more than the inevitable incremental improvement in technology that has always been a net boon to human prosperity and happiness.
I'm currently in the middle of moving. If Elon's got a GD robot that can carry boxes upstairs, replace mismatched electrical outlets, and listen to my wife cry because she's so anxious that she's convinced herself that the Swiss Coffee color paint she picked out doesn't actually seem as swiss or as coffee as she expected when it went on the walls, I hope he puts the damn thing on the market this week because I'm a buyer.
I think there's an intelligence threshold you have to be at to grasp what AI is going to be able to do. For example, my dog can't comprehend what AI is about to do either, Hank.
Good to know you've conceded the argument.
Mark Stoops is "about" to win the SEC championship next year, too, given projections created by the Mark Stoops camp, Waterhead.