Rankings
- Thread starter Tim0808
- Start date
There is a scientific method to figure it out
If UK wins move them up 4 spots, then move Duke up half of the UK ranking and then add 2 more and that’s Dukes new spot.
If that puts Duke less than one then subtract UK ranking until Duke is 1.
If UK looses put them out of the top 15 and move Duke up 10 spots.
If either team has a bye week drop UK 5 spots and move Duke up 8.
If UK wins move them up 4 spots, then move Duke up half of the UK ranking and then add 2 more and that’s Dukes new spot.
If that puts Duke less than one then subtract UK ranking until Duke is 1.
If UK looses put them out of the top 15 and move Duke up 10 spots.
If either team has a bye week drop UK 5 spots and move Duke up 8.
We should be in the top 12 but knowing the AP voters they will move us up 2 spots
We should be ranked ahead of Duke . Beat them in a neutral floor .
Considering Duke beat Arizona St by as much as they wanted- we should be #6 or #5-
That was the top game of the year so far this short season
That was the top game of the year so far this short season
Just win baby win....... I want that 1 next to our name on Selection Sunday.....
I think you have to put us ahead of Duke. But (unless they lose) I don't think you can have us jump UT. So I think we will be around 10-12, with Duke in the spot right behind us (or possibly UNC wedged in between us).
I don't think people who are saying we have to be ahead of Duke understand how rankings work. We aren't the only two teams being ranked, people.
Yeah, but we beat duke. Obviously we should be ranked ahead of them.
No - that's not obvious. If we played tomorrow, they might beat us right back. Then how would they rank us - tied?
The further the season goes on, you can't just rank the teams who won one week automatically ahead of the teams they beat because there are going to be other teams in there who beat them and vice versa.
You can in short sample size.
Right now if Duke goes to 11 Kentucky should be 10
I’m thinking Duke about #9 and us about #12. People will look at that game and say it was a fluke and Duke should have put us away. We won’t get nearly the credit we deserve. Just keep winning baby.
This isn't how rankings work.
The objective of rankings is to list the teams in order from best to worst. It should never be based on one game on one particular night.
This is actually why the human polls tend to get worse as the year goes on instead of better. They fail to take things into account such as where the game was played, what the margin of victory was, and also what happened in I dunno the previous week/months before that lol.
We beat one of the top teams. In Kenpom we moved from 32nd to 20th. Conversely, Duke dropped but only from 3rd to 5th.
If you believed coming into the game that Duke was 5 or 6 points better than us (which is what the Vegas line was), then one game shouldn't have changed that all that much.
This stuff will bear out over the course of the season tho. If we are truly better than them, we'll continue to move up, they will continue to move down.
3 games have been played. We haven’t lost, and duke has lost to us. This isn’t mid season, so all that other stuff is meaningless. We beat duke, we are undefeated and they are not. We should be ranked higher.
I don’t think you understand anything you just said.
Given the very limited data available, and the fact we beat Duke, we absolutely should be ranked ahead of them. It isn’t as if they have other high ranked victories to hang their hat on. At this point it’s 2-3 games and wishful thinking. If they are ranked ahead of us it’s based purely on ******** and nothing else.
Where OTHER teams are ranked around us is irrelevant.
Correct! But it isn’t further along in the season. It is the beginning of the season. The current rankings are mostly based on pure ******** and wishful thinking, plus a huge dash of bias. Given that, the head to head victory absolutely should take priority over….fantasy nonsense ********. Currently we have THREE wins that are all better than any Duke win, including a win ver Duke themselves. Anyone ranking them ahead of us isn’t basing it on reality — they are basing it on personal bias.
That can change, further in the season, when there is more data. For now, base it on the days available.
I completely disagree with that.
There's a reason pre season human polls tend to be more accurate in predicting tournament success compared to finalized rankings.
I know that seems counter intuitive but it's true. Humans tend to get worse. The reason is because they weight the most recent results and tend to ignore everything else. Computers tend to get better with more data but something needs to be said about this as well since I've seen this said so many times here........
Many people will look at pre season rankings and say don't pay attention to them. This isn't true. In fact, if you look at the model diagnostics page on Kenpom you see this for example for last year:
Accuracy/bias of predicted margin
| Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar/Apr | All | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAE (Margin) | 9.24 | 9.00 | 8.71 | 9.05 | 8.95 | 8.98 |
| MAE (Totals) | 12.82 | 12.76 | 12.21 | 12.71 | 13.12 | 12.68 |
| Bias (Totals) | -0.38 | +0.42 | +0.80 | -0.07 | +1.24 | +0.35 |
| Bias (Home Team) | -0.78 | -0.10 | +0.24 | +0.39 | +0.84 | +0.10 |
There isn't a whole heck of a difference between Nov and March here.
Even in this time of the transfer portal where teams are turning over more than ever, you can still make a reasonable prediction even before a game has even been played. Obviously a team like UK with 100% turnover will be harder to assess and thus admittingly by Ken himself thought we were ranked too low because it still has data baked into it from the previous year (obviously pointless for us).
But in terms of overall, you can still very much get a clear picture even in November how teams will do.
The NET we haven't moved up at all and they haven't dropped, maybe too early.
Rankings, I feel we should be 10th and they should drop to 11th. I think that's fair.
What will actually happen, I imagine we move up to 12-14th and they drop to 7-9th. I'd be shocked if they dropped past 9th.
Rankings, I feel we should be 10th and they should drop to 11th. I think that's fair.
What will actually happen, I imagine we move up to 12-14th and they drop to 7-9th. I'd be shocked if they dropped past 9th.
Dont kid yourself Rid. The NET is the most corrupt ranking system in America and it just so happens to play a huge role in Dance seedings.
Rankings are meaningless this early in the season. We will move up. But let’s hit the SEC and see how we sustain against a brutal schedule. I like my team.
Exactly . And on a neutral court . Since it’s first of season rankings should be considered soft until u get hard evidence such as one teamBeating another . So huge moves should be made at this point . Later in season other wins can make moves not so much but now it’s all guess work until one beats another .
in no world should Duke be ranked ahead of us until we lose.