Rate of Improvent

torque-cat

Redshirt
Dec 11, 2018
1,234
0
0
This year, eight B10 wins probably gets you to the dance. Granted the ACC is really weak.

I've heard this in other places, so I checked Joe Lunardi's latest bracket. He has 12 B10 teams in the tournament!! 12!! Michigan is on a pace for 5-6 wins and they're not even in his last four. Minnesota is.

As I said, this is an odd season nationwide, but seven or eight conference wins has NU as a strong part of the discussion ... at worst.

OTOH, any type of decent team this year would have been in the tournament. Missed opportunity.

have to be way better than decent to get 8-9 big ten wins when 12 teams are among the best 35-40 in the country.
 

combes

Heisman
Jul 10, 2001
36,256
10,766
66
From what I can find, there are 19 seniors who currently play at least 40% of minutes who will be graduating. Below, I've got the seniors >40% in bold, other seniors, other guys mentioned on various mock drafts who could leave early in italics, and current recruiting class rank:

Michigan: Jon Teske, Zavier Simpson, #4 recruiting class (1 5-star, 3 4-stars)
Illinois::Andres Feliz, Kipper Nichols, Ayo Dosunmu #10 recruiting class (1 5-star, 1 4-star, 2 3-stars)
Wisconsin: Brevin Pritzl #22 recruiting class (2 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
MSU: Cassius Winston, Kyle Ahrens, Joshua Langford, Xavier Tillman #28 recruiting class (2 4-stars)
Purdue: Jahaad Proctor, Evan Boudreaux, Tommy Luce, #31 recruiting class (2 4-stars, 1 3-star)
Indiana::Devonte Green, De'Ron Davis,Trayce Jackson-Davis #35 recruiting class (2 4-stars, 1 3-star)
OSU: Andre Wesson, Kaleb Wesson #44 recruiting class (2 4-stars)
PSU: Curtis Jones, Mike Watkins, Lamar Stevens #47 recruiting class (4 3-stars)
Minny: Alihan Demir, Daniel Oturu #54 recruiting class (2 4-stars)
Iowa: Ryan Kriener, Bakari Evelyn #55 recruiting class (2 3-stars, 3 lower ranked)
Rutgers: Akwasi Yeboah, Shaq Carter, #59 recruiting class (3 3-stars)
NU: AJ Turner, Pat Spencer #64 recruiting class (1 4-star, 1 3-star)
Maryland: Anthony Cowan, Michael Hurt, Jalen Smith #91 recruiting class (1 3-star)
Nebraska: Haanif Cheatham, Matej Kavaš, Cam Mack #91 recruiting class (1 3-star, 1 lower ranked)
Illinois only has three recruits for 2020. Adam Miller (5*), Andre Curbelo (4*) and Coleman Hawkins (3* 6-10 kid from California who just broke into Rivals 150 at #137).

There are two transfers sitting out, both 6-6 shooters. Jacob Grandison and Austin Hutcherson plus an injury redshirt Benjamin Bosnans-Verdonk. BBV is a 6-8 kid from Belgium who was on the Belgian National team and was expected to get time this year. Stress fracture curtailed that.

So Illinois loses 2 seniors plus Ayo and adds 6 players but only 3 in the recruiting class.
 

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
163
43
1) Doesn’t the stat line from Lathon at a bad conference suggest he probably wouldn’t have helped in the big ten as a true freshman? At this point he seems to be a convenient boogie man of an excuse.
2) Regardless of whether he made it to campus, it was a losing strategy to begin with. Having one one lead guard on a roster (and having that guard be a true freshman) is coaching malpractice.

This
 

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,235
1,079
113
I heard two years ago we'd be better the next season. I heard last year we'd be better this season.
Never hear better this season and we might have been last year if we had a starting PG which we did not.
 

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,235
1,079
113
1) Doesn’t the stat line from Lathon at a bad conference suggest he probably wouldn’t have helped in the big ten as a true freshman? At this point he seems to be a convenient boogie man of an excuse.
2) Regardless of whether he made it to campus, it was a losing strategy to begin with. Having one one lead guard on a roster (and having that guard be a true freshman) is coaching malpractice.
He would have been more ready than anyone we had. And by this year he would have had that year of experience to know what he had to do to get ready. Right now we are not even to the point with Buie where he is where Lathan would have been last year and we had the more experienced guys in other holes such as Pardon and Law when healthy. More than likely he would have been worth a couple more BIG wins last year. As far as this year, the loss of Gaines is pretty big
 

Styre

Senior
Oct 14, 2004
7,728
401
83
We ranked KenPom #19 in defense last year and had the #204 offense. Look at how many close games we lost where our offense wilted under pressure. With an average Big Ten-level PG, a remaining lineup of Pardon, Law, Turner, and Taylor would have competed for an NCAA bid. Lathon's departure/non-arrival was a huge and unfortunate turning point.

If last year's team would have competed for an NCAA bid with an average point guard, the 2017-18 team with a senior BMac must have cruised into the tournament!
 

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,235
1,079
113
We ranked KenPom #19 in defense last year and had the #204 offense. Look at how many close games we lost where our offense wilted under pressure. With an average Big Ten-level PG, a remaining lineup of Pardon, Law, Turner, and Taylor would have competed for an NCAA bid. Lathon's departure/non-arrival was a huge and unfortunate turning point.
Not sure NCAA bid but maybe NIT. But it was a huge factor both last year and this year though by next year it is more of a non factor if Buie continues to develop. Otherwise, I agree. The loss of Lathon was huge. Going forward, by next year it should be behind us
 

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,235
1,079
113
If last year's team would have competed for an NCAA bid with an average point guard, the 2017-18 team with a senior BMac must have cruised into the tournament!
BMac was injured basically throughout the BIG season
 

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,160
337
83
Illinois only has three recruits for 2020. Adam Miller (5*), Andre Curbelo (4*) and Coleman Hawkins (3* 6-10 kid from California who just broke into Rivals 150 at #137).

There are two transfers sitting out, both 6-6 shooters. Jacob Grandison and Austin Hutcherson plus an injury redshirt Benjamin Bosnans-Verdonk. BBV is a 6-8 kid from Belgium who was on the Belgian National team and was expected to get time this year. Stress fracture curtailed that.

So Illinois loses 2 seniors plus Ayo and adds 6 players but only 3 in the recruiting class.
I went off Rivals' database which still has Kouma as a 2020 commit.
 

NJCat

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2016
21,326
1,501
113
Interesting. I think CCC is doing a pretty good job this year despite the horrendous record. This is coming from a guy who thought he was really bad last year.
I agree on both counts. He was really bad last year, and is doing a good job this.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Interesting. I think CCC is doing a pretty good job this year despite the horrendous record. This is coming from a guy who thought he was really bad last year.

The comment was about last year and how Lathon would have saved us.

This year.. I like that he seems, at least publicly, during the games, more of a motivator than a punisher. I like his rotation and minute distribution. But, in fairness, when you do not expect to win, it's easier to excuse the coach.
 

NURoseBowl

Junior
Jun 16, 2009
8,137
319
58
I keep thinking along these lines...

Our current “optimal” starting 5 (minus Gaines due to season ending injury) is:
Spencer- first year playing college ball
Buie- freshman
Young- freshman
Nance- sophomore
Kopp- sophomore

First off the bench:
Beran-freshman
Turner- senior
Jones- freshman

That level of youth will never be a recipe for success outside maybe your top ten recruiting teams.

Even next year shows a pretty young team (PG-soph/fresh, SG-senior/junior/freshman, SF-junior, PF-junior/soph/soph, C-soph/soph/fresh), so although the should be better, we probably can’t expect too much. I’m hoping for competitive and back above .500 overall.

Projecting it out, 2021-2022 should give us a good shot at success with good health (which I realize assumes a LOT at NU).
PG-Buie(JR)
SG-Audige/Berry(SR/SO)
SF-Kopp(SR)
PF-Nance/Beran(SR/JR)
C-Young(JR)
That should be a group with a lot of experience and hopefully realized potential.

Doth not forget Jones and Nicholson.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,120
2,550
113
Right and I think that both will surpass Young for playing minutes eventually.
Good God, do you even watch the games. Your Young bashing is approaching your anti-White Sox bashing. To my recollection, Young has been WAY better than anyone on this board predicted. Who else has an inside game on this team? Now you are projected a raw player with limited offensive skills and a HS player you have never seen play are going to suddenly push him aside. If you are right, NU is going to the tourney, because Young is a legit B1G player.
 

harkesnu

Redshirt
Jan 27, 2004
354
9
13
Doth not forget Jones and Nicholson.

I don’t think I was. If Jones or Nicholson push Young off the starting Center position in 21-22, that will change the lineup, but Jones doesn’t look close to doing that at the moment, so I went with my best guess for a couple years from now. I think Young looks solid and looks like he will always work hard, so if the other two out work and/or out talent him by then, it’s probably a good sign for the program,
 

docrugby1

Senior
Jun 16, 2010
6,821
432
58
There have been more plays to the basket recently, which is a positive but the inability of our offense to create and hit open 3's is a glaring weakness. Nance , Young and Beran should receive passes down low, drawing double teams allowing them to hit the open man for easier 3's. All our 3's are contested and therefore difficult. Every team we play has multiple wide open 3's that kill us.
I guess what I am saying is we need a new OC, wait a minute, this the BB board
 

willycat

Junior
Jan 11, 2005
21,448
318
0
Good God, do you even watch the games. Your Young bashing is approaching your anti-White Sox bashing. To my recollection, Young has been WAY better than anyone on this board predicted. Who else has an inside game on this team? Now you are projected a raw player with limited offensive skills and a HS player you have never seen play are going to suddenly push him aside. If you are right, NU is going to the tourney, because Young is a legit B1G player.
Guess we will see Young's progress or lack of it. The w sox are just a second team in Chicago.
 

Medill90

Junior
Jan 30, 2011
6,910
321
0
There have been more plays to the basket recently, which is a positive but the inability of our offense to create and hit open 3's is a glaring weakness. Nance , Young and Beran should receive passes down low, drawing double teams allowing them to hit the open man for easier 3's. All our 3's are contested and therefore difficult. Every team we play has multiple wide open 3's that kill us.
I guess what I am saying is we need a new OC, wait a minute, this the BB board

Agree. My sense last night was that NU packs the zone a bit against MSU because they are bigger (not longer, bigger), more athletic and get to rim. When MSU was patient and moved the ball they'd eventually find someone as wide open as the grand canyon.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,120
2,550
113
Agree. My sense last night was that NU packs the zone a bit against MSU because they are bigger (not longer, bigger), more athletic and get to rim. When MSU was patient and moved the ball they'd eventually find someone as wide open as the grand canyon.
Teams want to shoot 3’s. Why are we so afraid of defending the bigs one on one? They will get some easy baskets but we won’t get killed with 3’s like every game now. Garza is the only guy I remember that killed us inside. I will take my chances they don’t shoot 60% over an entire game from the 2 point range.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Why are we so afraid of defending the bigs one on one? They will get some easy baskets but we won’t get killed with 3’s like every game now. Garza is the only guy I remember that killed us inside. I will take my chances they don’t shoot 60% over an entire game from the 2 point range.

My only explanation is:
1) afraid of getting in foul trouble. Even if we don't know if we will actually get in foul trouble
2) belief that Kopp/Beran/Nance will be beaten off the dribble. When, again, we have good size on the help side. And when guards who are good slashing are the dream for attacking a zone as they will split the defenders and keep it off balance very easily. Open shots galore.

How often is zone used? Someone can probably look up the numbers. But I'm thinking it's not more than 20% of the time in college basketball. And tends to be used by inferior teams with lack of athleticism.

The better the players, the less it is used. It requires perfection in adjustments or it creates open shots. Works wonders with really young kids, though teaches them nothing.
 
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hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,235
1,079
113
My only explanation is:
1) afraid of getting in foul trouble. Even if we don't know if we will actually get in foul trouble
2) belief that Kopp/Beran/Nance will be beaten off the dribble. When, again, we have good size on the help side. And when guards who are good slashing are the dream for attacking a zone as they will split the defenders and keep it off balance very easily. Open shots galore.

How often is zone used? Someone can probably look up the numbers. But I'm thinking it's not more than 20% of the time in college basketball. And tends to be used by inferior teams with lack of athleticism.

The better the players, the less it is used. It requires perfection in adjustments or it creates open shots. Works wonders with really young kids, though teaches them nothing.
We are so young and thin that preventing fouls is huge. And our guys are still a little slow getting to spots which increases the potential for fouls. I think the y will be better next year but we are not there yet. If we are going to use zone a lot, why not look at the Syracuse ameba zone? Behiem has been using it for decades and has been pretty successful