Realignment Odds. Place your bets now.

[MikesMarbles]

Saw this on the "other board".



I'm a little surprised this oddsmaker puts us in 4th place to get an invite to the SEC. He is getting my hopes up!

 

[CardX]

Saw this on the "other board".



I'm a little surprised this oddsmaker puts us in 4th place to get an invite to the SEC. He is getting my hopes up!

ACC GOR seems air tight, though. The ACC would have to dissolve. Or, there be a mass exodus. Even then, to leave the conference, $120M per school would have to be paid. Credit goes to the ACC’s lawyers. They created a contract with no holes.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood_rivals307205]

Interesting #'s, I wonder how often they shift, etc.

 

[KozmasAgain]

The only thing that surprises me is Cincinnati in the SEC don’t ever see that happening and no mention of Louisville in the B1G. I know before we went to the ACC there was no mention of us to the B1G by those in charge but there was a lot of chatter from B1G fans to add us.

 

[Knucklehank1]

I predict the GOR gets trampled on and ends up in litigation for years and years. I think Clemson and Miami end up in SEC and FSU and UNC end up in Big 10. I think Big 10 wants to get TV access to growing population in southeast US. Ultimately Oregon will work their way in to Big 10 because of Nike and Phil Knight.

 

[Rollem Cards]

I’m finding myself confused.

I don’t know if I’m ignorant or apathetic about it.

But what I do know is, I don’t know, and I don’t care.

 

[TPACardsFan]

I've almost reached a point where as long as I can watch my team on TV all the time and they get to play against UCF and USF so I can watch them easily in person I'm on board. All these conferences and moves and payouts, etc etc. I just want to be able to watch the Cards and go to some games in central Florida every year. Doesn't matter what conference they're in I'm a Cards fan through and through. Just put a quality product out there and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[PushupMan]

My best guess is that the ACC adds 6 (Oregon and State, Washington and State, Arizona and State) and we possibly lose 2 (maybe FSU and Clemson). Notre Dame and Stanford head to the Big 10.

The rest of the PAC combines with the Big12 to make the 4th mega conference. And we eventually get to a 16 team playoff with the 4 mega conferences getting auto bids, and the rest being at large.

 

[MikesMarbles]

I predict the GOR gets trampled on and ends up in litigation for years and years. I think Clemson and Miami end up in SEC and FSU and UNC end up in Big 10. I think Big 10 wants to get TV access to growing population in southeast US. Ultimately Oregon will work their way in to Big 10 because of Nike and Phil Knight.

I'm wondering about whether TV access is driving this round of expansion. That made sense 7-10 years ago when the BTN and SEC/ACC Networks were just starting out. But it seems like everyone can get these channels now. If not through cable, on a streaming service like YoutubeTV or SlingTV.

To me it seems more like a general consolidation of revenue producing teams into the 2 big leagues. I don't know what the revenue cutoff is, but my guess is teams like Clemson and FSU bring in enough that they will leave the ACC for the bigger shared payouts in the SEC. Those two teams could potentially grow the overall take the big conferences get per team.

I'm just guessing. I haven't seen any balance sheets.

 

[KozmasAgain]

If FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech are teams everybody thinks can move the needle how come those 6 teams can’t move the needle in the ACC?

 

[Thecycle27]

If FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech are teams everybody thinks can move the needle how come those 6 teams can’t move the needle in the ACC?

This is where I am at. ESPN already has those markets. Do they actually gain that much more by shifting them to the SEC?
In theory it does but what if FSU stays the same and Clemson levels off? People aren’t going to care or watch 6-6 OU play 6-6 FSU.

I get adding Texas and Oklahoma those are brand name in new markets for ESPN. Same with UCLA and USC.

The parody in these leagues is going to set in at some point.

 

[PushupMan]

If FSU, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech are teams everybody thinks can move the needle how come those 6 teams can’t move the needle in the ACC?

They move the needle just fine in the ACC. It’s the schools that would like to move to the SEC to increase their revenue by at least $19 million per year. ESPN is perfectly fine with them staying in the ACC and earning ACC level money.

it’s obvious to me that the pandemic exacerbated this situation. Schools (like UCLA) are feeling the financial pinch caused by greatly reduced or eliminated attendance, and are jumping at the opportunity to increase revenue rather than taking the undesirable option of cutting non-revenue sports.

 

[KozmasAgain]

My point is if those schools are so prestigious then why isn’t our TV contract better than what it is, I mean that is 6 schools. Was it a negotiation problem or is all this alignment just being engineered to by the networks for money and they are raiding conferences? If this is the case I would expect them to kick out schools that don’t meet the criteria they are setting for the incoming schools.

 

[PushupMan]

Our TV contract isn’t better than it is because the 16 teams in the new SEC and new Big Ten draw higher ratings for football than the 14 teams in the ACC.

Just as an example, television ratings for a matchup of FSU versus Texas A&M will draw more than a matchup of FSU versus Louisville in most cases.

I purposely picked those schools because Louisville and A&M were both 4-4 in their conferences last year - so they were both middle of the pack, making the comparison objective.

 

[KozmasAgain]

It is funny how people post that we can’t draw viewers like we have in the past because we have been down. If that is the case how can FSU draw viewers if has been a while since they had a good football team.

 

[Knucklehank1]

It is funny how people post that we can’t draw viewers like we have in the past because we have been down. If that is the case how can FSU draw viewers if has been a while since they had a good football team.

FSU needs to get their **** together but they are still considered a national brand. They’ve won national championships and are a draw wherever they play. Kind of similar to our bball program.

 

[beantowncard]

The only thing that surprises me is Cincinnati in the SEC don’t ever see that happening and no mention of Louisville in the B1G. I know before we went to the ACC there was no mention of us to the B1G by those in charge but there was a lot of chatter from B1G fans to add us.

Academics.

 

[beantowncard]

Our TV contract isn’t better than it is because the 16 teams in the new SEC and new Big Ten draw higher ratings for football than the 14 teams in the ACC.

Just as an example, television ratings for a matchup of FSU versus Texas A&M will draw more than a matchup of FSU versus Louisville in most cases.

I purposely picked those schools because Louisville and A&M were both 4-4 in their conferences last year - so they were both middle of the pack, making the comparison objective.

aTm has a much bigger alumni and fan base.

 

[PushupMan]

It is funny how people post that we can’t draw viewers like we have in the past because we have been down. If that is the case how can FSU draw viewers if has been a while since they had a good football team.

Same can be said for Texas, but yet the SEC made it a point to pluck them out of the Big 12 last year instead of us. I’m sure there are plenty of viewership metrics these decisions are made on. UofL is certainly not at the bottom of the list when it comes to football fan viewership. We just aren’t at the same level as FSU or TAMU

 

[KozmasAgain]

I am going to be brutally honest with everyone now and shock people but I don’t watch college sports because of academics.

 

[beantowncard]

I am going to be brutally honest with everyone now and shock people but I don’t watch college sports because of academics.

If that was a poke at my post above, touché. However, it was about the B1G extending an invite to UofL. They never would, based on, that’s right, perceived academic standards.

 

[KozmasAgain]

It really wasn’t towards your comment but it did open the door. I have heard that argument before and that is why I addressed it. Being invited to a conference and being a team that draws viewers are 2 different things. If the conference is going to get paid more money by inviting teams that draw viewers they are an option.

I never would of thought USC & UCLA would be in the B1G it doesn’t make sense. So it is not about what used to be but about what is now.