This is a big year for Frank Haith. After consecutive years with no postseason, the 9-man senior class of 2016 is no longer a valid excuse. He's got a senior point guard that he recruited out of high school, a senior big that fills up the box score, and a host of complementary pieces that he selected. This is now unquestionably Frank Haith's team.
So where do we find improvement for a team that graduated their leading scorer, leading rebounder, and leading 3-point shooter? The first step is a full healthy season from DaQuan Jeffries. On a per-minute basis Jeffries was the best player on the team last year, but he played just 549 minutes out of a possible 1255 last year. And his replacements were... not great. By most metrics, Tulsa would have won an additional 2 games last year if DaQuan Jeffries had played the same number of minutes as Junior Etou.
The next area is, perhaps paradoxically, the outside shooting. Henderson was a great 3-point shooter, but he was a volume shooter. I've got 5 guys on this team projected to shoot better than Henderson's 37.2% mark. Individually none of them will match Henderson's 196 attempts, but collectively they will and I think they'll make more. College basketball has increasingly become a shooter's game in the past few years and, despite never finishing better than 178th in 3PT%, Tulsa has consistently finished in the top half of the NCAA in 3-point attempts under Haith.
The final piece of the puzzle is depth. We know by now that Haith is going to play 10 guys, whether or not some of those guys actually earn minutes. This one requires a leap of faith on the newcomers. Simon Falokun already looks like an impact player. Jeriah Horne will be one. Moore? Barnes? Hewitt? Those guys need to step up.
So what's the record prediction?
One way to solve your early season issues is to just show up to play in the first game of the season. The other way is to schedule some of the worst teams that division 1 has to offer. The first 4 games are true cupcakes. Worse than Jacksonville State. Worse than Lamar. Truly bad teams. The first true test is November 22nd. Nevada has struggled in exhibitions and this will be their first game outside of Reno. They're also the #1 projected offense in the country according to KenPom. But the real key to the nonconference schedule and the ability to build a resume is the 3-game stretch in early December. Utah and KState are winnable games and likely tier 1 opponents. Oklahoma State is likely tier 2. If we want to make the case for an at-large in March, we could really use 2 of those 3 in December. Otherwise, it's an uphill battle. 23 wins with this schedule is probably on the wrong side of the bubble without some marquee wins.
So where do we find improvement for a team that graduated their leading scorer, leading rebounder, and leading 3-point shooter? The first step is a full healthy season from DaQuan Jeffries. On a per-minute basis Jeffries was the best player on the team last year, but he played just 549 minutes out of a possible 1255 last year. And his replacements were... not great. By most metrics, Tulsa would have won an additional 2 games last year if DaQuan Jeffries had played the same number of minutes as Junior Etou.
The next area is, perhaps paradoxically, the outside shooting. Henderson was a great 3-point shooter, but he was a volume shooter. I've got 5 guys on this team projected to shoot better than Henderson's 37.2% mark. Individually none of them will match Henderson's 196 attempts, but collectively they will and I think they'll make more. College basketball has increasingly become a shooter's game in the past few years and, despite never finishing better than 178th in 3PT%, Tulsa has consistently finished in the top half of the NCAA in 3-point attempts under Haith.
The final piece of the puzzle is depth. We know by now that Haith is going to play 10 guys, whether or not some of those guys actually earn minutes. This one requires a leap of faith on the newcomers. Simon Falokun already looks like an impact player. Jeriah Horne will be one. Moore? Barnes? Hewitt? Those guys need to step up.
So what's the record prediction?
One way to solve your early season issues is to just show up to play in the first game of the season. The other way is to schedule some of the worst teams that division 1 has to offer. The first 4 games are true cupcakes. Worse than Jacksonville State. Worse than Lamar. Truly bad teams. The first true test is November 22nd. Nevada has struggled in exhibitions and this will be their first game outside of Reno. They're also the #1 projected offense in the country according to KenPom. But the real key to the nonconference schedule and the ability to build a resume is the 3-game stretch in early December. Utah and KState are winnable games and likely tier 1 opponents. Oklahoma State is likely tier 2. If we want to make the case for an at-large in March, we could really use 2 of those 3 in December. Otherwise, it's an uphill battle. 23 wins with this schedule is probably on the wrong side of the bubble without some marquee wins.
