There was quite a bit of team changes with both teams falling out and teams fighting the way in, but the number didn’t change wildly because both teams entering and departing wasn’t that wildly different.
There are a total of 268 teams projected to make it to 5-4 or better, this total is down one from last week.
I’m still feeling a 37 to 38 point break. My guess is that there will be a high number of teams that finish at 37 and the final teams will come out of a tiebreaker from that group. This could skew to 38, seems highly unlikely to push to 39.
Teams projected to miss on points are: Westmont, Cuba (North Fulton), Nokomis, Peotone, Cambridge (RIdgewood), Dwight, Chicago (Brooks), Decatur (Lutheran), Oneida (ROWVA), Sciota (West Prairie), Tremont, Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
First team out: Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
Last team in: Clinton
Class 8A
New teams in: Zion-Benton (still not totally sure about Week 9, but the path is there for them), Downers Grove South (battle of Downers Grove this week should settle some things for both teams)
Teams removed from 8A: Glenbard East (now in Class 7A), Simeon (now in Class 7A)
Smallest school in 8A: Brother Rice
Note on this: I’m still rather confident Brother Rice ends up in 8A just because of the limited number of options to move them. Not only am I not totally convinced on the two teams that I added at 5-4 and if either of them falter, Brother Rice moves deeper back into the draw. On top of that there are only seven other teams total that are still eligible that can mathematically snag a slot and the paths for those teams don’t look particularly likely although a few of them certainly could. For the record those teams are: Plainfield North, Joliet West, Sandburg, Fremd and Dundee-Crown. All of these teams need to sweep their last two games and beat at least one team that I have graded better than them to figure into the field. Leyden isn’t included here because if they did manage to win out, they’d still miss on points.
(32) Downers Grove South at (1) Lincoln-Way East
(17) Huntley at (16) South Elgin
(25) Neuqua Valley at (8) Aurora West
(24) Waubonsie Valley at (9) Glenbard West
(29) Oak Park-River Forest at (4) Homewood-Flossmoor
(20) Loyola at (13) Evanston
(28) Minooka at (5) Marist
(21) Barrington at (12) Bolingbrook
(31) Zion-Benton at (2) Brother Rice
(18) Gurnee Warren at (15) Plainfield South
(26) St. Charles East at (7) Oswego East
(23) Edwardsville at (10) Stevenson
(30) Taft at (3) Oswego
(19) New Trier at (14) Conant
(27) Bartlett at (6) Maine South
(22) Naperville Central at (11) Hinsdale Central
Class 7A
Largest school: Glenbard East
Smallest school: Reavis
New teams in field: Simeon (was in 8A), Glenbard East (was in 8A), Granite City (win over previously undefeated team (Mater Dei) moves them in),
Teams removed from field: Yorkville (now in 6A), Hubbard (margins are so close in this conference).
(32) Rockford East at (1) Chicago Simeon
(17) Machesney Park Harlem at (16) Lincoln-Way West
(25) Lake Zurich at (8) DeKalb
(24) Benet at (9) Mount Carmel
(29) Granite City at (4) Batavia
(20) T.F. South at (13) East St. Louis
(28) Mount Prospect at (5) Rolling Meadows
(21) Moline at (12) Normal Community
(31) Blue Island Eisenhower at (2) Rockton Hononegah
(18) Glenbrook North at (15) Lincoln-Way Central
(26) Andrew at (7) Nazareth
(23) Belleville West at (10) Hersey
(30) Buffalo Grove at (3) Glenbard East
(19) Hoffman Estates at (14) St. Charles (North)
(27) Alton at (6) Willowbrook
(22) Wheaton Warrenville South at (11) Maine West
Class 6A
Largest school: Reavis
Smallest school: Kaneland
New teams in field: Reavis (Was in 7A), Yorkville (was in 7A), Grayslake North (still precarious on point line)
Teams removed from field: Perspectives/Leadership (costly loss this week), Lake Forest (costly loss this week), Dunlap (now in 5A)
North Bracket
(16) Grayslake North at (1) Cary-Grove
(9) Von Steuben at (8) Yorkville
(13) Fenton at (4) Maple Park Kaneland
(12) St. Ignatius at (5) Phillips
(15) Wauconda at (2) Antioch
(10) Belvidere North at (7) Lakes
(14) Crystal Lake South at (3) Niles Notre Dame
(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Prairie Ridge
South Bracket
(16) Peoria at (1) Oak Lawn Richards
(9) Crete-Monee at (8) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin
(13) Providence Catholic at (4) Chicago Kenwood
(12) Lemont at (5) Normal Community West
(15) Reavis at (2) Chatham Glenwood
(10) Springfield at (7) Shepard
(14) Rock Island at (3) Washington
(11) Bloomington at (6) Quincy
Class 5A
Largest school: Dunlap
Smallest school: Hyde Park:
In: Champaign Central (huge win over Peoria), Chicago Phoenix (another tough read in the CPL), Solorio Academy (See Phoenix), Dunlap (was in 6A).
Out: Chicago Brooks (Points problems), Woodstock Marian (costly loss to Carmel), Chicago Westinghouse (narrow loss is costly), Evergreen Park (now in 4A)
Note: The geography line between north and south is super narrow between these two brackets could be interpreted in a number of different ways.
North Bracket
(16) Phoenix Military at (1) Sterling
(9) Sycamore at (8) Elmwood Park
(13) Amundsen at (4) Montini
(12) De La Salle at (5) St. Francis
(15) Glenbard South at (2) Rockford Boylan
(10) St. Patrick at (7) Hyde Park
(14) Woodstock North at (3) Payton
(11) Solorio at (6) Back of the Yards
South Bracket
(16) Mattoon at (1) Hillcrest
(9) Rich Central at (8) Decatur MacArthur
(13) Vocational at (4) Cahokia
(12) Dunlap at (5) Marion
(15) Rich East at (2) Highland
(10) Mascoutah at (7) Carbondale
(14) Peoria Notre Dame at (3) Metamora
(11) Champaign Central at (6) Morton
Class 4A
Largest school: Evergreen Park
Smallest school: Paris (coin flip required)
In: Illinois Valley Central (upset win gets them in), Evergreen Park (was in 5A)
Out: Bishop McNamara (now in 3A), Clinton (now in 3A)
North Bracket
(16) Plano at (1) IC Catholic
(9) Raby at (8) Genoa-Kingston
(13) Elgin St. Edward at (4) Marengo
(12) Chicago Sullivan at (5) Stillman Valley
(15) Wheaton Academy at (2) Richmond-Burton
(10) Johnsburg at (7) Dixon
(14) Evergreen Park at (3) Urban Prep-Bronzeville
(11) Clemente at (6) Agricultural Science
South Bracket
(16) Illinois Valley Central at (1) Paris
(9) Rochester at (8) Effingham
(13) Olney Richland County at (4) Pontiac
(12) Murphysboro at (5) Breese Mater Dei
(15) Salem at (2) Taylorville
(10) Herrin at (7) Freeburg
(14) Mount Zion at (3) Coal City
(11) Breese Central at (6) Columbia
Class 3A
Largest school: Clinton
Smallest school: Vandalia
In: Herscher (big win over Peotone puts them in), Pickneyville (still has some points issues to survive), Bishop McNamara (was in 4A), Clinton (was in 4A).
Out: Marine (loss to Phoenix puts them out), Peotone (serious points problems now), Seneca (last minute loss puts them out), St. Thomas More (Week 7 loss proves costly)
North Bracket
(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron
(9) Prairie Central at (8) Poplar Grove North Boone
(13) Herscher at (4) Dunbar
(12) Clark at (5) Lisle
(15) Urban Prep/Englewood at (2) Farmington
(10) Spring Valley Hall at (7) Elmwood
(14) Princeton at (3) Bishop McNamara
(11) Wilmington at (6) Monmouth-Roseville
South Bracket
(16) Clinton at (1) Carlinville
(9) Vandalia at (8) Anna-Jonesboro
(13) Wood River (East Alton) at (4) DuQuoin
(12) Newton at (5) Williamsville
(15) St. Joseph-Ogden at (2) Monticello
(10) Eureka at (7) Paxton
(14) Pinckneyville at (3) Beardstown
(11) Greenville at (6) West Frankfort
Class 2A
Largest school: Fairfield
Smallest school: Jacksonville Routt
In: Chicago Harlan (Big win this week gets them in), Watseka (last-minute win over Seneca helps them in)
Out: Decatur Lutheran (has points issues), Chicago Christian (points issues)
North Bracket
(16) Watseka at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(9) Tri-Valley at (8) Hamilton West Hancock
(13) Rockford Christian at (4) Sterling Newman Central Catholic
(12) Fieldcrest at (5) Collins
(15) Harlan at (2) Eastland-Pearl City
(10) Mercer County at (7) Clifton Central
(14) Knoxville at (3) Orion
(11) Rockridge at (6) Hope Academy
South Bracket
(16) Alton Marquette at (1) Illini West
(9) Bismarck-Henning at (8) Eldorado
(13) Jacksonville Routt at (4) Fairfield
(12) Marshall at (5) Pana
(15) Staunton at (2) Decatur St. Teresa
(10) Pleasant Plains at (7) Chester
(14) Rushville at (3) Maroa-Forsyth
(11) Nashville at (6) Athens
Class 1A
Largest school: Tuscola
No field changes
North Bracket
(16) Polo at (1) Ottawa Marquette
(9) Stockton at (8) Forreston
(13) Dakota at (4) Salt Fork
(12) Orangeville at (5) Orr
(15) Fulton at (2) Princeville
(10) Aurora Christian at (7) Fisher
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Milledgeville
(11) Kewanee Wethersfield at (6) Lena-Winslow
South Bracket
(16) Edwards County at (1) Argenta-Oreana
(9) Sesser-Valier at (8) Warrensburg-Latham
(13) Moweaqua (Central A&M) at (4) Red Hill
(12) Cerro Gordo at (5) Concord Triopia
(15) Greenfield at (2) Tuscola
(10) Toledo Cumberland at (7) Arcola
(14) Georgetown-Ridge Farm at (3) Camp Point Central
(11) Carrollton at (6) Madison
There are a total of 268 teams projected to make it to 5-4 or better, this total is down one from last week.
I’m still feeling a 37 to 38 point break. My guess is that there will be a high number of teams that finish at 37 and the final teams will come out of a tiebreaker from that group. This could skew to 38, seems highly unlikely to push to 39.
Teams projected to miss on points are: Westmont, Cuba (North Fulton), Nokomis, Peotone, Cambridge (RIdgewood), Dwight, Chicago (Brooks), Decatur (Lutheran), Oneida (ROWVA), Sciota (West Prairie), Tremont, Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
First team out: Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
Last team in: Clinton
Class 8A
New teams in: Zion-Benton (still not totally sure about Week 9, but the path is there for them), Downers Grove South (battle of Downers Grove this week should settle some things for both teams)
Teams removed from 8A: Glenbard East (now in Class 7A), Simeon (now in Class 7A)
Smallest school in 8A: Brother Rice
Note on this: I’m still rather confident Brother Rice ends up in 8A just because of the limited number of options to move them. Not only am I not totally convinced on the two teams that I added at 5-4 and if either of them falter, Brother Rice moves deeper back into the draw. On top of that there are only seven other teams total that are still eligible that can mathematically snag a slot and the paths for those teams don’t look particularly likely although a few of them certainly could. For the record those teams are: Plainfield North, Joliet West, Sandburg, Fremd and Dundee-Crown. All of these teams need to sweep their last two games and beat at least one team that I have graded better than them to figure into the field. Leyden isn’t included here because if they did manage to win out, they’d still miss on points.
(32) Downers Grove South at (1) Lincoln-Way East
(17) Huntley at (16) South Elgin
(25) Neuqua Valley at (8) Aurora West
(24) Waubonsie Valley at (9) Glenbard West
(29) Oak Park-River Forest at (4) Homewood-Flossmoor
(20) Loyola at (13) Evanston
(28) Minooka at (5) Marist
(21) Barrington at (12) Bolingbrook
(31) Zion-Benton at (2) Brother Rice
(18) Gurnee Warren at (15) Plainfield South
(26) St. Charles East at (7) Oswego East
(23) Edwardsville at (10) Stevenson
(30) Taft at (3) Oswego
(19) New Trier at (14) Conant
(27) Bartlett at (6) Maine South
(22) Naperville Central at (11) Hinsdale Central
Class 7A
Largest school: Glenbard East
Smallest school: Reavis
New teams in field: Simeon (was in 8A), Glenbard East (was in 8A), Granite City (win over previously undefeated team (Mater Dei) moves them in),
Teams removed from field: Yorkville (now in 6A), Hubbard (margins are so close in this conference).
(32) Rockford East at (1) Chicago Simeon
(17) Machesney Park Harlem at (16) Lincoln-Way West
(25) Lake Zurich at (8) DeKalb
(24) Benet at (9) Mount Carmel
(29) Granite City at (4) Batavia
(20) T.F. South at (13) East St. Louis
(28) Mount Prospect at (5) Rolling Meadows
(21) Moline at (12) Normal Community
(31) Blue Island Eisenhower at (2) Rockton Hononegah
(18) Glenbrook North at (15) Lincoln-Way Central
(26) Andrew at (7) Nazareth
(23) Belleville West at (10) Hersey
(30) Buffalo Grove at (3) Glenbard East
(19) Hoffman Estates at (14) St. Charles (North)
(27) Alton at (6) Willowbrook
(22) Wheaton Warrenville South at (11) Maine West
Class 6A
Largest school: Reavis
Smallest school: Kaneland
New teams in field: Reavis (Was in 7A), Yorkville (was in 7A), Grayslake North (still precarious on point line)
Teams removed from field: Perspectives/Leadership (costly loss this week), Lake Forest (costly loss this week), Dunlap (now in 5A)
North Bracket
(16) Grayslake North at (1) Cary-Grove
(9) Von Steuben at (8) Yorkville
(13) Fenton at (4) Maple Park Kaneland
(12) St. Ignatius at (5) Phillips
(15) Wauconda at (2) Antioch
(10) Belvidere North at (7) Lakes
(14) Crystal Lake South at (3) Niles Notre Dame
(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Prairie Ridge
South Bracket
(16) Peoria at (1) Oak Lawn Richards
(9) Crete-Monee at (8) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin
(13) Providence Catholic at (4) Chicago Kenwood
(12) Lemont at (5) Normal Community West
(15) Reavis at (2) Chatham Glenwood
(10) Springfield at (7) Shepard
(14) Rock Island at (3) Washington
(11) Bloomington at (6) Quincy
Class 5A
Largest school: Dunlap
Smallest school: Hyde Park:
In: Champaign Central (huge win over Peoria), Chicago Phoenix (another tough read in the CPL), Solorio Academy (See Phoenix), Dunlap (was in 6A).
Out: Chicago Brooks (Points problems), Woodstock Marian (costly loss to Carmel), Chicago Westinghouse (narrow loss is costly), Evergreen Park (now in 4A)
Note: The geography line between north and south is super narrow between these two brackets could be interpreted in a number of different ways.
North Bracket
(16) Phoenix Military at (1) Sterling
(9) Sycamore at (8) Elmwood Park
(13) Amundsen at (4) Montini
(12) De La Salle at (5) St. Francis
(15) Glenbard South at (2) Rockford Boylan
(10) St. Patrick at (7) Hyde Park
(14) Woodstock North at (3) Payton
(11) Solorio at (6) Back of the Yards
South Bracket
(16) Mattoon at (1) Hillcrest
(9) Rich Central at (8) Decatur MacArthur
(13) Vocational at (4) Cahokia
(12) Dunlap at (5) Marion
(15) Rich East at (2) Highland
(10) Mascoutah at (7) Carbondale
(14) Peoria Notre Dame at (3) Metamora
(11) Champaign Central at (6) Morton
Class 4A
Largest school: Evergreen Park
Smallest school: Paris (coin flip required)
In: Illinois Valley Central (upset win gets them in), Evergreen Park (was in 5A)
Out: Bishop McNamara (now in 3A), Clinton (now in 3A)
North Bracket
(16) Plano at (1) IC Catholic
(9) Raby at (8) Genoa-Kingston
(13) Elgin St. Edward at (4) Marengo
(12) Chicago Sullivan at (5) Stillman Valley
(15) Wheaton Academy at (2) Richmond-Burton
(10) Johnsburg at (7) Dixon
(14) Evergreen Park at (3) Urban Prep-Bronzeville
(11) Clemente at (6) Agricultural Science
South Bracket
(16) Illinois Valley Central at (1) Paris
(9) Rochester at (8) Effingham
(13) Olney Richland County at (4) Pontiac
(12) Murphysboro at (5) Breese Mater Dei
(15) Salem at (2) Taylorville
(10) Herrin at (7) Freeburg
(14) Mount Zion at (3) Coal City
(11) Breese Central at (6) Columbia
Class 3A
Largest school: Clinton
Smallest school: Vandalia
In: Herscher (big win over Peotone puts them in), Pickneyville (still has some points issues to survive), Bishop McNamara (was in 4A), Clinton (was in 4A).
Out: Marine (loss to Phoenix puts them out), Peotone (serious points problems now), Seneca (last minute loss puts them out), St. Thomas More (Week 7 loss proves costly)
North Bracket
(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron
(9) Prairie Central at (8) Poplar Grove North Boone
(13) Herscher at (4) Dunbar
(12) Clark at (5) Lisle
(15) Urban Prep/Englewood at (2) Farmington
(10) Spring Valley Hall at (7) Elmwood
(14) Princeton at (3) Bishop McNamara
(11) Wilmington at (6) Monmouth-Roseville
South Bracket
(16) Clinton at (1) Carlinville
(9) Vandalia at (8) Anna-Jonesboro
(13) Wood River (East Alton) at (4) DuQuoin
(12) Newton at (5) Williamsville
(15) St. Joseph-Ogden at (2) Monticello
(10) Eureka at (7) Paxton
(14) Pinckneyville at (3) Beardstown
(11) Greenville at (6) West Frankfort
Class 2A
Largest school: Fairfield
Smallest school: Jacksonville Routt
In: Chicago Harlan (Big win this week gets them in), Watseka (last-minute win over Seneca helps them in)
Out: Decatur Lutheran (has points issues), Chicago Christian (points issues)
North Bracket
(16) Watseka at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(9) Tri-Valley at (8) Hamilton West Hancock
(13) Rockford Christian at (4) Sterling Newman Central Catholic
(12) Fieldcrest at (5) Collins
(15) Harlan at (2) Eastland-Pearl City
(10) Mercer County at (7) Clifton Central
(14) Knoxville at (3) Orion
(11) Rockridge at (6) Hope Academy
South Bracket
(16) Alton Marquette at (1) Illini West
(9) Bismarck-Henning at (8) Eldorado
(13) Jacksonville Routt at (4) Fairfield
(12) Marshall at (5) Pana
(15) Staunton at (2) Decatur St. Teresa
(10) Pleasant Plains at (7) Chester
(14) Rushville at (3) Maroa-Forsyth
(11) Nashville at (6) Athens
Class 1A
Largest school: Tuscola
No field changes
North Bracket
(16) Polo at (1) Ottawa Marquette
(9) Stockton at (8) Forreston
(13) Dakota at (4) Salt Fork
(12) Orangeville at (5) Orr
(15) Fulton at (2) Princeville
(10) Aurora Christian at (7) Fisher
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Milledgeville
(11) Kewanee Wethersfield at (6) Lena-Winslow
South Bracket
(16) Edwards County at (1) Argenta-Oreana
(9) Sesser-Valier at (8) Warrensburg-Latham
(13) Moweaqua (Central A&M) at (4) Red Hill
(12) Cerro Gordo at (5) Concord Triopia
(15) Greenfield at (2) Tuscola
(10) Toledo Cumberland at (7) Arcola
(14) Georgetown-Ridge Farm at (3) Camp Point Central
(11) Carrollton at (6) Madison