While this happened in 2019, it’s not a given (that loser of Big 10 title games goes Rose Bowl, if winner in CFP). I personally think it’s going to be Wiscy who represents the West and if they lose to OSU (especially if it’s not close), could absolutely see PSU getting Rose Bowl bid given Wiscy would have 4 losses, including loss to PSU.
Agreed IF (big IF) that happens. If we beat Mich and MSU (and Rutgers) AND OSU wins out, Iowa would still loom as a possibility. If Wisconsin and Iowa win out, Wisconsin will be 9-3 and Iowa 10-2, Wisconsin gets to B10 champ game with tiebreaker. Let's say they lose and finish 9-4. Yes, between PSU and Wisconsin - PSU should go with their h2h win. But you've also got an Iowa who'd be a a game better than us and have the h2h win.
The counter argument to Iowa is that IF we were to win out, we'd have wins over Auburn, Wisconsin, MSU, and Michigan--while Iowa would have wins over us and Iowa State (who could win out and be 9-3 and possibly in B12 champ game). Our resume would be better but 1 less loss and h2h would probably mean more to CFP.