Can someone tell me why Northern Illinois has a slightly higher RPI than the Cats? They are 17-8 with a solid loss AT Missouri, a team that we beat, and their schedule has hardly been laced with cupcakes including Roosevelt! Got their best win by one at home against 20-5 Akron the other night, but their conference has no one even close to the top 25 and no one that's beaten anybody of note all year.
rpi question
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Dude, what does it matter? Neither team is any good.
The MAC is really bad this year. Akron's best win was vs. Arkansas in a tourney. The rest of the league hasn't beaten anyone and no, NIU's schedule is very comparabler to NU's (Chi State is on theres too). I'm just trying to figure the thing out because it does affect NIT chances, doesn't it?
NJCat, how many B10 teams are going to the NCAA tournament?
EDIT: Let me cut to the chase. Six teams are definitely going. Seven teams are probably going and I'd feel VERY comfortable betting eight. Ohio State will have 19 wins and 10 wins before the tournament. Wisconsin will have a minimum of 18/10 and playing as well as anyone in the B10.
That leaves who for the NIT? Are we going to say the NIT will not have a B10 team?
That is just another among the several reason I've already outlined that NU is - at worst - on an NIT bubble if they beat all the crappy teams left on their schedule. And if there's one thing NU has shown, they can beat crappy teams.
EDIT: Let me cut to the chase. Six teams are definitely going. Seven teams are probably going and I'd feel VERY comfortable betting eight. Ohio State will have 19 wins and 10 wins before the tournament. Wisconsin will have a minimum of 18/10 and playing as well as anyone in the B10.
That leaves who for the NIT? Are we going to say the NIT will not have a B10 team?
That is just another among the several reason I've already outlined that NU is - at worst - on an NIT bubble if they beat all the crappy teams left on their schedule. And if there's one thing NU has shown, they can beat crappy teams.
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1-4 finish? Only win being Rutgers, I assume. That's some serious pessimism.
If you want to dig into the details, check out the links below. These detail the exact impact that every team in the NCAA has on our current and expected RPI. Right now, NU's games against Chicago State (343), Mississippi Valley State (330), SIU Edwardsville (306) and 2 games vs Minnesota (239) are having the biggest drag on our overall RPI. On the other hand, the two losses to Maryland (6) are giving our RPI the biggest boost. However, those losses are not giving our RPI as much of a boost, for instance, as Northern Illinois is getting from going 1-1 against Akron (45).
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Northwestern.html
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Northern Illinois.html
Looking at the hard data gives you a better appreciation for scheduling and the negative impact of playing really bad teams, even when you beat them.
Yes. Collins made a big mistake in creating such an awful non-conference schedule. And to think it was made before it was known that Law would be out for the season..... a very bad move. Not to mention the disinterest generated by the bums of the week coming into WR in November/December. Brutal.
Win @Michigan? No.
Win @PSU? Maybe, but performance in Evanston says unlikely.
Win over RU? Lock.
Win over Nebby? Tough game.
First round Big 10 Tourney? Right now NU would play either OSU or MSU. Not liking their chances at all against MSU, but an upset of OSU is possible.
So I disagree that 1-4 is overly pessimistic given who they play and where.
Collins was always playing for the NIT IMHO. I think he was hoping to improve to 8 or 9 Big 10 wins this season, which could still happen. He knew even with Vic that this team wasn't ready for a tough schedule. He already had 4 tough road games: UNC, Mizzou or KSU, DePaul and Va Tech. Where was he going to get another Power 5 or high mid-major to come to Evanston? I think he played his hand perfectly and the problem is he is losing winnable Big 10 games (OSU twice, PSU and MD). Win those games and then no one is discussing the weak OOC schedule.
Thanks. I still think it's a little skewed. Don't they take games vs. common opponents into account? NU beat Mizzu and NIU lost convincingly to them Akron's ONLY big time win was against a .500 Arkansas team on a neutral court. And then there is Ohio, ranked 84th. They've lost to all the decent teams they played, but they didn't schedule any really bad Chicago States or SIU-Eds (which beat SIU, by the way), so it looks like the idea is to schedule a lot of mediocre to bad teams and beat them.
Maybe if you play a few halfway decent teams in the OOC then maybe you get better and at least find out who can really play on your team. Perhaps the team is actually able to win a few of the so called winnable games in the B10. And I will always discuss a putrid OOC schedule like NU 2015-16 because as a season ticket holder I find these November/December games a complete waste of time when the opponents suck so bad.
I didn't buy season tickets at the start of the season specifically because of the terrible non-conference schedule. Once they offered a B1G-only season ticket for football season ticket holders, I went and bought those. I'm hoping enough others did the same to send a message that the scheduling needs to improve.
The played a few "halfway decent teams" in OOC and beat 'em all. Columbia is in second in the Ivy, Va Tech has a wining record, won @DePaul, gave UNC a good game. The problem has been a) injuries, and b) a slump by one of their best players, Tre. But I do agree that there were plenty of suck games OOC in WRA (which also sucks big time).
Is it possible to anticipate the difference between teams in the 180 range and teams in the 300+ range when you're putting together a schedule? In other words, while he was trying to build a strong non-con record, is it likely Collins and the staff knew exactly how staggeringly crappy the opponents would be?
Yes. They knew exactly what they were doing. There would have been no reason to believe UMass Lowell, MVSU, SIUE, UNO, CSU, Sacred Heart, or Loyola would be anything but bottom ranked programs based on recent seasons. Collins said all of their OOC games on the road were challenging for one reason or another and that they needed to schedule confidence builders at home. I don't think either he or Phillips are stupid, so they did what they did for a reason. I believe the reasons were a) to show progress overall record-wise to keep recruiting momentum up, and b) to make a run at the NIT. Time will tell if this was a good decision.
The reason is that RPI is not a sophisticated way of ranking teams.
The RPI has three components: a team's own winning percentage (25%), opponent winning percentage (50%), and opponent's opponent winning percentage (25%), with no rewards for margin of victory or anything else. As a consequence, games against the top teams in small conferences (win or loss) are especially useful, while 40-point victories against 5-25 teams can be very harmful, indeed. For example, going 0-20 against the "top 10" teams losing by 50 points/game, would be better RPI-wise than going 20-0 vs bottom-feeders winning by 50. Interestingly, RPI doesn't count games against non-D1 opponents, so you can actually get away with playing worse teams than the ones we've played without screwing up your RPI!
Neither of the schedules mentioned above are particularly realistic, so the issues with RPI usually cancel themselves out over the course of a season. And, it's a lot easier to calculate an RPI than to make a "smart" computer ranking system, so the RPI will probably remain a part of the discussion for some time to come!
Our struggles at Penn State were more visible under DeChelis (mainly because of the 2-3 vs the PO). The Nittany Lions are slowly improving under Chambers, but they aren't close to world beaters. We knocked off Nebraska on their floor and the multiple computer models have the 'Cats winning that match up by double digits. There's a decent chance of the 'Cats meeting Ohio State again in Indy 9 (which you alluded to). Nebraska is in the mix to finish right around 8/9 place which could mean another match up with them as well.
We agree on Rutgers.
NU has been playing better of late (pushing both Ohio State and Purdue on the road) and
as Sec 112 said, the 'Cats have proven to be quite effective against RPI 100 teams or worse, including the bottom half of the BIG. 1-4 seems like the absolute worst case scenario, thus the serious pessimism comment.
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42 years of being a Cats fan have taught me the "worst case scenario" is usually the most probable season-ending scenario.....
And the actually "worst case scenario" includes a loss to Rutgers!
I looked at both teams' profiles quickly on KenPom, where NU is ahead in the overall rankings by 60 spots. NIU has played 12 games this season against opponents KenPom 200+. Northwestern has played nine. We played six games against KenPom 300+, while NIU has also played six against KenPom 300+ or teams off the board. My understanding is RPI rewards playing tough opponents more than KenPom does, which is why we do better in the KenPom system. Either way, we have played a really crappy schedule. You have to wonder if going up against some tougher teams in the non-conference might have helped us now that we have faltered against every good team we've played except for Wisconsin.
NU needs 3 more wins for NIT. If they get them, they are likely in. If not, not. And having those 3 more wins would not have gotten us into NCAA regardless of how tough the OOC schedule was. So enough of how the weak OOC schedule was a mistake.
So let me get this straight. NU will be 18-11 after Michigan and Rutgers (fingers crossed). And you're supposedly (not quite) counting them out against two equally sub-.500 teams in conference - one team they already beat. Against the other team, they played their worst game of the year, shot 11% from three against and still only lost by nine.
Talk about unrealistic.
I'm not saying it's not an uphill battle. I'm not saying the low RPI isn't a problem. I'm somewhat with others who say 20 wins may not get them in.
OTOH, history says they have a good shot with 20 wins.
And watch out if OSU is invited to the NCAA tournament and 20-win NU has the best record of the remaining teams.
Thanks for all the input on this. It would seem like both RPI and KenPom should be used to evaluate teams for postseason play and that rpi has some obvious flaws. I was struck by how MAC teams could be ranked ahead of NU based on having beaten NO power 5 teams or even Big East, Atlantic Ten or Mo Valley ones (and not playing many of them either). Like many of you, I look forward to an upgrade of NU's schedule for next year, but if they get to twenty wins this year (no easy task), I do believe they deserve NIT consideration. By the way, Missouri just beat South Carolina last night, an SEC team that was highly ranked for much of season.
"History" says NU struggles at the end of a long season due to lack of depth. NU has 2 guards who play nearly the entire game. Will they wear down? Getting 8 days off before UM will help. For whatever reason, NU seems to struggle against PSU, who always seem to have big physical guys even if they aren't overly skilled. Winning in State College will be a challenge. And beating a Big 10 team twice in the same season isn't easy. Nebraska had a second half lead in game 1 and collapsed. Think they aren't looking forward to the rematch?
We agree to disagree. The great thing is, we'll know the answer in a few weeks time.
You obviously don't think there is anything to be gained in terms of getting better by playing good competition. You also apparently don't think that figuring out who your good players are by seeing them against good competition has any value. I disagree. The OOC schedule this year was a joke and a mistake.
I am saying we play plenty of good competition in the BIG. Whether we get to post season depends on what we do in conference just like it always does. If we win 8 we are in the postseason. IF no, we are not. Might need one additional BIG win to get to NCAA than we would have but I did not see us getting there any way, After we got a few games (say 5) into the BIG season, any advantage of the preseason being tougher or lessons to be learned because we played one or two tougher games was likely over. So tell me. Which of the 3 games we lost in that stretch would we have won?
I am not suggesting that it never makes a difference. Just that this year, probably did not, If you want to say that the home schedule was pretty weak, I will agree but much of that is a fluke of the schedule where our ACC challenge was on the road as well as our game against DePaul.
Again, the difference might be one or two games at the most. Since most of the games were at home, who are you going to get to come? Maybe a Butler, Creighton or Dayton?
Geez, I just think it might be more possible to get to 9, 10 or 11 wins in the Big Ten schedule if you actually play enough of an out of conference schedule that you actually know what you have and are not just a fraud of a team getting smoke blown up your *** just because you are something like 12-1 going into that B10 schedule. I can't think of a sport where it doesn't help to actually compete against better competition if the goal is to be better at the end.
This is the "Collins has lost this team!" guy. Predicting 1 win down the stretch is actually optimistic for him.
+1
BTW, our NIT game will be against Nebraska imo. If we beat Rutgers, UNL, I think we get in the NIT. Our signature win will be against Wisconsin, which may be the BT Champ.
42 years of being a Cats fan have taught me the "worst case scenario" is usually the most probable season-ending scenario.....
And the actually "worst case scenario" includes a loss to Rutgers!
Heh, fair enough.
One quibble: No scenario could include a loss to Rutgers because I'm confident no team has ever fell to the Scarlet Knights.
Neverconsideredthisafinal4 team because we went 12-1 OOC and I do not see having a relatively easy OOC being what keeps us from having 10 or 11 win conference record. Could it have made a 1 game difference? Maybe but I even doubt that. Law was alredy down. Losing Olah led to burning of Pardons shirt and in any event, he would have had no game experience prior to the BIG. Ash had a Staff infection so doubt it would have helped him. So who could it have helped? Falzon, maybe? Just saying that this year, it really would not have made much difference. I am not saying this for any year, but I am saying it for this year.
OK. I guess the OOC scheduling was the right thing for this year. Coach thinks the team is not good so schedule the worst you can. I will go along with his reasoning and accept it. I'll get excited for a season next time I see a schedule that is halfway respectable. Maybe that's next year? I know I'm not going to any more of those stinky November/December games.
All indications are that next year's schedule is going to be much better. We're in a tournament with Texas, Colorado, and Notre Dame, we'll get an ACC team at home, we'll be in the Big East series (probably against Marquette), we're supposedly playing Dayton at the United Center, and we'll get DePaul at home.
Part of the problem with this year's schedule was bad luck, since every major conference team we faced except for UNC was unusually weak.