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S&P+ Week 1 Projection: Southern Miss -3

J

JasonS.

All-American
Oct 10, 2001
41,813
7,192
0
I'm a big fan of Bill Connelly/Football Study Hall. Takes a while for these "advanced stats" models to shake out (not unlike the KemPom/RPI in basketball), so no reason to get too worked up about Week 1 projections. That said, it's interesting ... and not all that surprising, given how low we ranked in all the computer rankings at the end of last season (S&P+ had us 95th nationally).

Anyway, for Saturday S&P+ favors Southern Miss by 3. The F/+ (of which the S&P+ is a component) favors Southern Miss by 2.

Connelly cites our game as one of the one of the the week's more interesting S&P+ projections (relative to the spread):

Southern Miss by 2.9 over Kentucky (per S&P+). S&P+ really, really doesn’t like the Wildcats this year. And it’s not that hard to see why. Experience in the receiving corps, a former blue-chipper at QB, and some new offensive coaching could lead to solid offensive success and massive UK overachievement compared to projection. But if it doesn’t, then this season could go horribly in Lexington.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/9/1/12748262/college-football-schedule-tv-listings-vegas-picks
 
J

jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
0
Quick, this is an emergency!!! How do you get in touch with them to bet on the game?

Oh never mind, I think I remember them having a betting service once, but it only lasted one game before it folded.
 
W

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
I like Connolly's analyses because he puts a little narrative in his numbers compared to Steel, Sagarin, et. al. And, for whatever reasons, his numbers really don't like the Cats as much as others which make the Cats about an 11 point fav. However, I have seen 1 or 2 handicappers advising take the Eagles +6.

Peace
 
J

JasonS.

All-American
Oct 10, 2001
41,813
7,192
0
We're 86th nationally in rolling 5-year S&P average and 95th nationally in returning production (Louisville is #1 nationally, FWIW). Those are significant parts of the Connelly projections ... and so yeah, we're not going to be any good if those are major inputs in your model.

If I had to guess where we are at the end of the year, I'd guess the 60-80 range ... not mid 80s where he has us.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,455
0
JasonS. said:
We're 86th nationally in rolling 5-year S&P average and 95th nationally in returning production (Louisville is #1 nationally, FWIW). Those are significant parts of the Connelly projections ... and so yeah, we're not going to be any good if those are major inputs in your model.

If I had to guess where we are at the end of the year, I'd guess the 60-80 range ... not mid 80s where he has us.
Click to expand...
So much has changed for both teams, in my opinion the changes are net negative for USM and net positive for UK, that I don't know how anyone is making a realistic prediction on this game.
 
W

wer4usm

All-American
Oct 28, 2002
8,515
5,755
0
BigBlueFanGA said:
So much has changed for both teams, in my opinion the changes are net negative for USM and net positive for UK, that I don't know how anyone is making a realistic prediction on this game.
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I'm not sure how you calculated net negatives as we have a 4 year starter at QB and our best running back as well. One of the top centers in the nation and plenty of receivers with experience. I get the bigger OL but so did Miss State have that last year and wasn't able to pound the ball on our "smaller" Dline. I get all the home school stuff as I've done that myself. But the unbiased media seem to be calling this a closer game than KY folks want to believe. I think if KY wins then it's a great sign that good things are to come as you've been challenged by a good ball team. But this over at half time stuff may be assuming that we don't come to fight. And generally that is not how we play. The cheer that you don't want to hear coming from the USM fans is "Nasty Bunch". That's a sacred label that all USM D's try to earn. Hopefully this team will show the same tenacity as those teams honored with that cheer.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,455
0
WER4USM (n10ac) said:
I'm not sure how you calculated net negatives as we have a 4 year starter at QB and our best running back as well. One of the top centers in the nation and plenty of receivers with experience. I get the bigger OL but so did Miss State have that last year and wasn't able to pound the ball on our "smaller" Dline. I get all the home school stuff as I've done that myself. But the unbiased media seem to be calling this a closer game than KY folks want to believe. I think if KY wins then it's a great sign that good things are to come as you've been challenged by a good ball team. But this over at half time stuff may be assuming that we don't come to fight. And generally that is not how we play. The cheer that you don't want to hear coming from the USM fans is "Nasty Bunch". That's a sacred label that all USM D's try to earn. Hopefully this team will show the same tenacity as those teams honored with that cheer.
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I say a 10 point game. I've already been over your list of negatives. You can find that elsewhere.
 
C

carolinacat

All-Conference
Nov 7, 2007
4,869
4,655
113
By the second half of the season, his numbers will be more reliable. This game, like many early season games, is a crapshoot. Southern Miss is a dangerous opponent..no doubt about that.
 
A

anon_7tbtqcx308nxh

All-Conference
Jan 15, 2013
3,634
1,846
0
JasonS. said:
We're 86th nationally in rolling 5-year S&P average and 95th nationally in returning production (Louisville is #1 nationally, FWIW). Those are significant parts of the Connelly projections ... and so yeah, we're not going to be any good if those are major inputs in your model.

If I had to guess where we are at the end of the year, I'd guess the 60-80 range ... not mid 80s where he has us.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Also, S&P+ is measured on a play-by-play basis. That won't favor a team like UK that had a boom-or-bust offense AND a bend-don't-break defense.
 
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2330859

All-American
Nov 28, 2002
12,145
9,804
0
I continue to be amazed at how so many UK fans have discounted So Miss football. It is one thing to pick your team to win, which in this case is quite likely that UK will prevail. However the margin will likely range from 3 to 6 points. If UK loses, there will be many throughout the rest of the country that will not see it as an upset at all.

Give your opponent respect.
 
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B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,455
0
2330859 said:
I continue to be amazed at how so many UK fans have discounted So Miss football. It is one thing to pick your team to win, which in this case is quite likely that UK will prevail. However the margin will likely range from 3 to 6 points. If UK loses, there will be many throughout the rest of the country that will not see it as an upset at all.

Give your opponent respect.
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I said 10 and I do respect USM football. The bigger margin than you prefer and showing respect to USM are not mutually exclusive.
 
T

ThunderCat98

All-American
Jun 23, 2007
23,417
9,129
0
For those writing SoMiss off, look no further than the EKU game last year, or the UT v. Appy game last night. SoMiss is a much better team/program than EKU. We don't take them seriously, we lose this game.

Hopefully, we finally see our recruiting success start to pay off. If we look like we did last year, SoMiss wins by 10+.
 
DelkBowl

DelkBowl

Heisman
Oct 4, 2015
10,412
11,318
101
It makes me sad that we are home dogs to teams like southern miss. smh
 
R

richbrookstomato

Heisman
Sep 13, 2003
23,905
33,655
0
If Coach Stoops can't beat this team that has his former Off. Coord. that we let go after ONE SEASON by 2 scores at home, then the UK Football Program is not where any of us want it to be.

This game is the BIGGEST opener we've had since Stoops has been here.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,455
0
ThunderCat98 said:
For those writing SoMiss off, look no further than the EKU game last year, or the UT v. Appy game last night. SoMiss is a much better team/program than EKU. We don't take them seriously, we lose this game.

Hopefully, we finally see our recruiting success start to pay off. If we look like we did last year, SoMiss wins by 10+.
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What does last year have to do with this year?
 
D

dorkmeister

Junior
Oct 25, 2006
6,668
396
0
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
 
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T

ThunderCat98

All-American
Jun 23, 2007
23,417
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BigBlueFanGA said:
What does last year have to do with this year?
Click to expand...

Nothing, and no one was comparing last year's team to this year's.

The point is, you can't take anyone lightly. Come out flat, or thinking this is just some CUSA team, and you might end up getting punched in the mouth.
 
S

SanAntonioCat_rivals376502

All-Conference
Oct 1, 2001
5,199
1,898
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ThunderCat98 said:
Nothing, and no one was comparing last year's team to this year's.

The point is, you can't take anyone lightly. Come out flat, or thinking this is just some CUSA team, and you might end up getting punched in the mouth.
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We will not be punched in the mouth. We will be challenged and must be ready to play. The whole southern football world regards our football program as an SEC train wreck. Now is the time. Now is the time to rise. Now is the time to win.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,455
0
ThunderCat98 said:
Nothing, and no one was comparing last year's team to this year's.

The point is, you can't take anyone lightly. Come out flat, or thinking this is just some CUSA team, and you might end up getting punched in the mouth.
Click to expand...
That was never misunderstood. I'm just saying I don't think this years team will have the same lapses as last years team.
 
OldRed

OldRed

All-Conference
Jun 7, 2001
17,775
4,543
113
dorkmeister said:
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
Click to expand...
I've not seen anything to make me believe that we can score 48 points on anyone and I am not at all convinced that we can get pressure on their QB with our DL. I picked us to win in the prediction contest but I don't have a lot of confidence. Following Kentucky in FB is like being Charlie Brown and having Lucy hold he ball for you.
 
D

Dakota25

All-Conference
Nov 24, 2014
2,460
1,027
0
dorkmeister said:
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
Click to expand...
Yeah you are definitely a Louisville fan. Probably making fun of these post on their boards.
 
M

Monroe Claxton

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2015
3,021
4,685
0
If Kash and Landon play early, we will roll and the gane will not be close. If Stoops will be stubborn and not let them play we will be looking at a nail-biter
 
A

anon_7tbtqcx308nxh

All-Conference
Jan 15, 2013
3,634
1,846
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On his podcast this week Connelly said he thinks his numbers are wrong in this case and picks UK. Around 15 mark. Podcast Ain't Played Nobody.
 
S

SouthernMiss3613

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2008
3,556
47
0
I will give you that USM is currently the 3rd best team in the state, but Ole Miss is about to go on probation and Prescott just graduated from State. Over the last 20 years USM was the best team 75% of the time. Ask any Ole Miss or State fan and they will agree.
 
S

shutzhund

All-Conference
Nov 19, 2005
29,202
2,619
0
dorkmeister said:
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
Click to expand...


Your optimism is admirable. Your football acumen is suspect.
 
M

MADISON EAGLE_rivals88189

Senior
Aug 28, 2001
1,183
456
0
dorkmeister said:
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
Click to expand...
Dork is right
 
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N

nerdcat_rivals308595

Senior
Mar 27, 2009
901
914
0
dorkmeister said:
I'm sick of all this "respect" for So Miss. They are not as good as us and we should win by at least 21. We have out recruited them by miles and we have our coaches in place and at a great comfort level finally. Stoops players have been in the program for a long enough time to know what is expected and how to perform on and off the field.

This game wont be close. I'm not being disrespectful to tell the truth. We win easy. I predict 48-13
Click to expand...
You were so close.
 
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