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No argu
No argument here. On the other hand, the potential is there to reach a bowl.
Good article that is pretty much on point. If our unproven players reach or exceed their potential it should be a good year for us. If we do not improve on offense and if our front seven fails to improve over last years performance then it could be a ugly season that does not bolster the perception of our greatly improved roster and potential.
The key to a successful year is Gran and Hinshaw developing our talented QB, WR's, RB's, and OL into a cohesive unit that are all on the same page. An offense that makes fewer mistakes and holding onto the ball while moving the chains and scoring would do wonders for a defense that is in desperate need of experience in the front seven would go a long, long way in securing a bowl bid.
The key to a successful year is Gran and Hinshaw developing our talented QB, WR's, RB's, and OL into a cohesive unit that are all on the same page. An offense that makes fewer mistakes and holding onto the ball while moving the chains and scoring would do wonders for a defense that is in desperate need of experience in the front seven would go a long, long way in securing a bowl bid.
I posted this yesterday in HoB and the reax there are much different than here. Much more defensive there. Just noting because the difference is very interesting to me.
FWIW, in his 2015 UK preview his system projected UK to win 4.1 games which he said seemed too low. I wonder if UK "underachieving" in his eyes last year has made him even more bearish for them in 2016?
FWIW, in his 2015 UK preview his system projected UK to win 4.1 games which he said seemed too low. I wonder if UK "underachieving" in his eyes last year has made him even more bearish for them in 2016?
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I'm a huge Bill C./FSH fan. He's the best.
If nothing else, that preview reminds us in rather matter-of-fact terms how bad last season was on all fronts: offense, defense and special teams. Per the S&P+ overall, we were the third worst Power 5 team (h/t Colorado and Kansas). Almost have to be better this season ... right?
If nothing else, that preview reminds us in rather matter-of-fact terms how bad last season was on all fronts: offense, defense and special teams. Per the S&P+ overall, we were the third worst Power 5 team (h/t Colorado and Kansas). Almost have to be better this season ... right?
Really good read. UK is going to be very hard to predict this year, with numerous question marks, and numerous opponents with major question marks. It does seem like a pivot point, one way or the other. Go Cats!
I have been reading Bill's site for last couple of years. Always good stuff, he puts so much work into it. I was hoping he would have our Cats rated a little higher this year, but tough to argue with his logic.
If Barker can play a lick we should be better than we were last year and that should be enough to pick up that elusive extra win that we didn't get the last two years.It is by no means a sure thing or a done deal(this is after all UK football we are talking about) but it is doable
Bill C. did a brilliant job of statistically pointing out the ineffectiveness of the 2015 Cats and extrapolating that ineptness into the 2016 season. I am cautiously optimistic that a new offensive regime, noticeably better S&C results, and another year of experience will enable the Cats to exceed everyone's very low expectations. I like the fact we are traveling way under the radar.
His analysis of individual position groups strengths and weaknesses may be correct, but his game by game projections are silly.
26% chance of beating Missouri w/ a projected margin of -11? Missouri didn't score much more than 11 points per game last year and lost a couple of key guys from the offense. The % and the margin seem ridiculous. He's basically projecting a shut out.
Why is South Carolina favored over us? We've beaten them two years in a row and there's nothing to suggest they won't be atrocious again this year.
26% chance of beating Missouri w/ a projected margin of -11? Missouri didn't score much more than 11 points per game last year and lost a couple of key guys from the offense. The % and the margin seem ridiculous. He's basically projecting a shut out.
Why is South Carolina favored over us? We've beaten them two years in a row and there's nothing to suggest they won't be atrocious again this year.
UK's offense finished last season ranked 92nd in his S&P+ system, while Missouri's defense finished in the top 15. That's why the margin is so high. It's based on his system.
My guess as to why SCAR is rated higher is based on the weighted five year average that factors into S&P+. That's a good example of why stats and the "eye test" compliment each other. It's hard to believe SCAR will be much better, if at all, than UK this season.