Penn State is an extreme team. They are 1st in the country at not turning the ball over, and they are 3rd-worst in the country at forcing turnovers. They are dead last in the country at offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line. They shoot the 5th most 3-pointers as a % of their total shots of any team in the country, and they have the 10th-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. Lastly, they are the most experienced team in the country, with four of their five top guys by minutes played being in their 5th year, a 4th-year senior who is nearly 23, and a 5th year bench player who has played for five different universities in his career. They average 15 minutes per game where their tallest player on the court is 6'6". Like I said, extreme.
Penn State wins games when they shoot the lights out. They have seven players who shoot 40% from 3 or better in conference play (small sample size for three of them, but still)., led by Jalen Pickett. He plays 37 minutes per game and has the 2nd-best shooting percentage of anyone in the conference. He's also the best passer in the Big Ten. Seth Lundy was a 44% shooter from 3 before going 0-11 against Rutgers last game. He's probably not going to do that again.
They don't win games when their effective FG% is less than 54% - they haven't beaten a major-conference team this year when that happens. If they shoot less than 50% from 2 or 40% from 3, it's lights out. We need to make sure that we don't get out of position going for steals, or they will eat us alive. Another area where they are susceptible is when teams can get to the free throw line against them. They've only won once when a team has a FTrate of 35% or higher, and that was at home against Nebraska. Likewise, the magic number on D for them seems to be 33.3% from 3 - when they allow P6 teams to shoot better than that, they are 2-10, though those 2 wins came in the last week at Minnesota and OSU.
Hopefully we can rally behind the crowd, get their shooters rattled, drive the lane, and make just enough shots to pull out the senior day victory.
Penn State wins games when they shoot the lights out. They have seven players who shoot 40% from 3 or better in conference play (small sample size for three of them, but still)., led by Jalen Pickett. He plays 37 minutes per game and has the 2nd-best shooting percentage of anyone in the conference. He's also the best passer in the Big Ten. Seth Lundy was a 44% shooter from 3 before going 0-11 against Rutgers last game. He's probably not going to do that again.
They don't win games when their effective FG% is less than 54% - they haven't beaten a major-conference team this year when that happens. If they shoot less than 50% from 2 or 40% from 3, it's lights out. We need to make sure that we don't get out of position going for steals, or they will eat us alive. Another area where they are susceptible is when teams can get to the free throw line against them. They've only won once when a team has a FTrate of 35% or higher, and that was at home against Nebraska. Likewise, the magic number on D for them seems to be 33.3% from 3 - when they allow P6 teams to shoot better than that, they are 2-10, though those 2 wins came in the last week at Minnesota and OSU.
Hopefully we can rally behind the crowd, get their shooters rattled, drive the lane, and make just enough shots to pull out the senior day victory.
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