SEC Bowl Projections - UK: Belk Bowl or Birmingham Bowl

[akaukswoosh]

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/sec-...vell_AJC&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

We’re nearly halfway through the regular season, and the bowl picture is now beginning to take shape for the SEC teams expected to become bowl-eligible.

It’s now consensus that Alabama will play Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinals, and that fellow unbeaten Texas A&M is destined for a Sugar Bowl clash with former Big 12 rival Oklahoma. Tennessee was projected to either the Orange or Cotton bowls by all six sites polled, and five of six are pegging Ole Miss to get the Citrus Bowl bid.

After that, things get a little murkier, but this week should help clear that up with Arkansas hosting Ole Miss and Missouri traveling to Florida.

SEC Country has compiled expert predictions made by multiple media outlets, including ESPN (Mark Schlabach and Brett McMurphy), CBS Sports, SB Nation, 247Sports and our own set of projections.

Through six weeks, here’s where SEC squads could be headed during bowl season:

 

[Dakota25]

Wow I'm surprised UK is projected. They have to beat both Miss. State and Missouri to go and the chances are slim.

 

[tluck28]

Wow I'm surprised UK is projected. They have to beat both Miss. State and Missouri to go and the chances are slim.

Miss st has lost to South Alabama and Missouri isn't that good either, and Austin P should be an an easy win.....why cant they get to a bowl? Its crazy if they dont.

 

[Tannerdad]

I would take either and run with it.

 

[Nuke99m.]

Georgia at home would be feasible if we can rediscover the passing game. (I still think 5 wins is in our future again though.)

 

[docholiday51]

Georgia at home would be feasible if we can rediscover the passing game. (I still think 5 wins is in our future again though.)

It is hard not to think 5 is the number,but we are about 60 years overdue for a good break so maybe this is the year

 

[akaukswoosh]

I would take either and run with it.

I'd say Stoops would too.[winking]

 

[gamalielkid]

Miss st has lost to South Alabama and Missouri isn't that good either, and Austin P should be an an easy win.....why cant they get to a bowl? Its crazy if they dont.

If you were forced to bet on the games straight up - who would you take? I would definitely take Kentucky over Mississippi State. Definitely take Kentucky over Austin Peay. Then it becomes harder. Missouri at home will be dangerous and will probably be the favorite. Georgia at UK will be very interesting. If UK wins the next two, then, IMO, Georgia suddenly becomes an opportunity for UK to win. Now this is were it gets crazy. If UK were to win all three of these games - then the Tennessee game could decide the SEC East! We could see UK, Florida and Tennessee all with 6-2 records! I know this is quite a pipe dream and I don't want to go out saying we are going to be 6-2 in the SEC now - but a fumble or interception at the right time, an unforseen injury, etc. and we could get the breaks to end up with that kind of record. I know what many will say - no way we win over 5 games.

The Tennessee game should be an unwinnable game for us, but in reality Tennessee could easily be 2-4 right now - they did come back and win three games late after being down by two or more touchdowns. Sometimes these things even out!

Go Big Blue!

 

[ukgrad83]

Miss st has lost to South Alabama and Missouri isn't that good either, and Austin P should be an an easy win.....why cant they get to a bowl? Its crazy if they dont.

Right now Kentucky sits 20 spots lower than Miss St. or Missouri in the Sagarin Ratings. UG is 27 ahead, while UT and UL are 60+. The only sure win left is against Austin Peay. Realistically I see UK winning only one against MSU, Mizz, and UG. Hope they prove me wrong.

 

[Anon1660081258]

Wow I'm surprised UK is projected. They have to beat both Miss. State and Missouri to go and the chances are slim.

They must when 3 out of the remaining 6 games. Pretty sure that means they can lose to one or both, and still make it happen... not that I think it will come to that. The really slim chance is that they lose to both, and still finish 6-6.

 

[Anon1660081258]

Right now Kentucky sits 20 spots lower than Miss St. or Missouri in the Sagarin Ratings. UG is 27 ahead, while UT and UL are 60+. The only sure win left is against Austin Peay. Realistically I see UK winning only one against MSU, Mizz, and UG. Hope they prove me wrong.

Pretty sure our Sagarin rating is suffering mightily from the first three games. We are (say whatever you like about the competition) one of the most improved teams in the country over games 4-6. Get us back to some productivity in the passing game, and at least 4 of 6 remaining games are contests, and given the youth of the team, some continued progress with the squad might make UT and U of L more interesting than expected.

 

[ukgrad83]

Pretty sure our Sagarin rating is suffering mightily from the first three games. We are (say whatever you like about the competition) one of the most improved teams in the country over games 4-6. Get us back to some productivity in the passing game, and at least 4 of 6 remaining games are contests, and given the youth of the team, some continued progress with the squad might make UT and U of L more interesting than expected.

Most improved over the last 3 games? While I appreciate your optimism, I'm not buying it. It'll take more than a lackluster performance at home against a Vandy team that we should have beaten by 20 points to convince me otherwise. Trust me, I want this program to win as much as anybody, but I'm just not seeing the development that I feel is necessary to get there.

 

[docholiday51]

If you were forced to bet on the games straight up - who would you take? I would definitely take Kentucky over Mississippi State. Definitely take Kentucky over Austin Peay. Then it becomes harder. Missouri at home will be dangerous and will probably be the favorite. Georgia at UK will be very interesting. If UK wins the next two, then, IMO, Georgia suddenly becomes an opportunity for UK to win. Now this is were it gets crazy. If UK were to win all three of these games - then the Tennessee game could decide the SEC East! We could see UK, Florida and Tennessee all with 6-2 records! I know this is quite a pipe dream and I don't want to go out saying we are going to be 6-2 in the SEC now - but a fumble or interception at the right time, an unforseen injury, etc. and we could get the breaks to end up with that kind of record. I know what many will say - no way we win over 5 games.

The Tennessee game should be an unwinnable game for us, but in reality Tennessee could easily be 2-4 right now - they did come back and win three games late after being down by two or more touchdowns. Sometimes these things even out!

Go Big Blue!

We are in good position to pick up a win against Miss St,if we can do that the next thing we have to guard against is being overconfident(don't fall out of you chair laughing) but we have done that too often in the past.We win 2 or 3 in a row then lay a big egg against a team that we should be able to beat(Miss St has played that role more than once as has South Carolina and even Missouri a couple of years ago)

Maybe if we stay behind the 8-ball we are comfortable there,we haven't handled what limited success we have had in football very well.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

Really want to throw a wrench in it - Will NCAA allow bowl participants in the Belk (Charlotte) Bowl?

I am wishing and hoping for Charlotte - because I WILL GO - Birmingham bowl - I'll watch on television

 

[Bluetick2100]

Chances of going to a bowl ......15%

 

[gamalielkid]

Most improved over the last 3 games? While I appreciate your optimism, I'm not buying it. It'll take more than a lackluster performance at home against a Vandy team that we should have beaten by 20 points to convince me otherwise. Trust me, I want this program to win as much as anybody, but I'm just not seeing the development that I feel is necessary to get there.

We could have beaten this team by 20 with some breaks for sure. But Vanderbilt is no slouch - Florida beat them by 6 points. They beat Western at Western - who had a higher rated team at the time. So, make no mistake about it - Vandy and South Carolina had decent defenses. Plus as I said in an earlier post we played Bama pretty tough! Their fans were very upset over them not beating us by 50 plus. We had three fumbles and an open pass miss. We change just two of those and that game could have easily been only a two touchdown loss.

Go Big Blue!

 

[Johnfarrel]

Most improved over the last 3 games? While I appreciate your optimism, I'm not buying it. It'll take more than a lackluster performance at home against a Vandy team that we should have beaten by 20 points to convince me otherwise. Trust me, I want this program to win as much as anybody, but I'm just not seeing the development that I feel is necessary to get there.

Florida only beat Vandy by 7, the same as Kentucky did. Either Flordia got a whole lot worse since the Kentucky game or Kentucky got a whole lot better.

 

[MrKentucky]

Beggars can't be choosers, but Charlotte > Birmingham and that's a fact.

 

[NCukcat62]

While I really hope this team goes to a bowl, we still have a lot of games left that aren't in our favor. The down stretch of the schedule will definitely be interesting to watch on how our team comes together

 

[ukgrad83]

Florida only beat Vandy by 7, the same as Kentucky did. Either Flordia got a whole lot worse since the Kentucky game or Kentucky got a whole lot better.

Transitivity does not apply to football games and Florida isn't very good this year. Like I said, I'm not buying yet.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

Chances of going to a bowl ......15%

I say prove the # 15% with math ....and do it on the board Lil Johnny.......

 

[lex cath]

I don't give a damn where we go, I'll be there and thankful :americanflag:

 

[Shydog]

Florida only beat Vandy by 7, the same as Kentucky did. Either Flordia got a whole lot worse since the Kentucky game or Kentucky got a whole lot better.

I think KY got much better and I am gonna say something about our game with the Gators. I can't come up with words to describe how hot it was at the Swamp that day. I mean miserable hot, was it hot for their players also, yes but I'll tell you what their fans didn't seem to be bothered nearly as bad as our fans were so I would say it was the same for the players! I would never ever go back to the Swamp for an afternoon game in early fall. this coming from a guy who ordinarily loves hot weather but that was at another level!

 

[carolinacat]

I say prove the # 15% with math ....and do it on the board Lil Johnny.......

If you believe it all hinges on the next two games...i.e. we have zero shot against UGA/UT/UL (unrealistic IMO), and that Austin Peay is a virtual certainty, then the math is easy. Just estimate the probability of winning against each team. For my money, we should be slight faves against MSU and a slight dog against Missouri. Call it a toss up and the odds of winning both games is .25 or 25%. I believe we have shot against UGA, and a lesser shot against UL and UT, although we were in the last two games against the filthy Cards. Conservatively speaking, I think we have a 35% chance of getting to six wins. Not great odds, but worth watching and paying attention. I believe it boils down to QB play....if Johnson's last game was an aberration, or if Drew can come back and perform at a decent level, I think we can get there. If Drew can't come back, I am not sure that Johnson has enough upside to steal a win against the big three on our schedule.

 

[NavyCat88]

MSU is the key because it is at home, at night, we're coming off a bye week, and MSU is coming off a trip to BYU. IF, with those advantages, we can't/don't win that game, we're in trouble this year.

 

[Anon1660081258]

Most improved over the last 3 games? While I appreciate your optimism, I'm not buying it. It'll take more than a lackluster performance at home against a Vandy team that we should have beaten by 20 points to convince me otherwise. Trust me, I want this program to win as much as anybody, but I'm just not seeing the development that I feel is necessary to get there.

The offense was disappointing against Vandy, and that explains the close margin all by itself. My optimism springs from my confidence in Gran and Hinshaw to restore some balance and point production to the attack. The way the D played, we should have won by 24+.

 

[EnPassant]

Really want to throw a wrench in it - Will NCAA allow bowl participants in the Belk (Charlotte) Bowl?

I am wishing and hoping for Charlotte - because I WILL GO - Birmingham bowl - I'll watch on television

The NCAA controls the events that are official NCAA run events - football bowl games aren't. That's a reason why there is no officially recognized NCAA D-1 football champ - the NCAA doesn't run the postseason at all.

Most people have a limited knowledge of what "the NCAA" is and does.

 

[willievic]

Most improved over the last 3 games? While I appreciate your optimism, I'm not buying it. It'll take more than a lackluster performance at home against a Vandy team that we should have beaten by 20 points to convince me otherwise. Trust me, I want this program to win as much as anybody, but I'm just not seeing the development that I feel is necessary to get there.

UK83, how did Vandy do against Florida?

OLD STOLL FIELD GUY!

 

[akaukswoosh]

MSU is the key because it is at home, at night, we're coming off a bye week, and MSU is coming off a trip to BYU. IF, with those advantages, we can't/don't win that game, we're in trouble this year.

Yep. Getting to six wins starts with beating MSU. No ifs, ands or buts.

 

[ukalum1988]

Beggars can't be choosers, but Charlotte > Birmingham and that's a fact.

I've always wanted to experience Legion Field in early January.[eyeroll]

 

[BigBluePhantom]

I experienced it for the Pitt game and I can assure you that it is much worse than you can imagine. It wasn't just a crappy stadium in the middle of the hood. It was a terrible atmosphere. That said, I will take any bowl over staying at home because Stoops desperately needs to show progress and that would be a sign to recruits that the program is moving in the right direction.

 

[football follies]

Right now Kentucky sits 20 spots lower than Miss St. or Missouri in the Sagarin Ratings. UG is 27 ahead, while UT and UL are 60+. The only sure win left is against Austin Peay. Realistically I see UK winning only one against MSU, Mizz, and UG. Hope they prove me wrong.

Where is south alabama sitting?

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

The NCAA controls the events that are official NCAA run events - football bowl games aren't. That's a reason why there is no officially recognized NCAA D-1 football champ - the NCAA doesn't run the postseason at all.

Most people have a limited knowledge of what "the NCAA" is and does.

And I am correct in my assumption that this also includes the NCAA having a limited knowledge of what the "NCAA" does...examples - see UNC Tarheels STILL HAVE SPORTS PROGRAMS!

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

If you believe it all hinges on the next two games...i.e. we have zero shot against UGA/UT/UL (unrealistic IMO), and that Austin Peay is a virtual certainty, then the math is easy. Just estimate the probability of winning against each team. For my money, we should be slight faves against MSU and a slight dog against Missouri. Call it a toss up and the odds of winning both games is .25 or 25%. I believe we have shot against UGA, and a lesser shot against UL and UT, although we were in the last two games against the filthy Cards. Conservatively speaking, I think we have a 35% chance of getting to six wins. Not great odds, but worth watching and paying attention. I believe it boils down to QB play....if Johnson's last game was an aberration, or if Drew can come back and perform at a decent level, I think we can get there. If Drew can't come back, I am not sure that Johnson has enough upside to steal a win against the big three on our schedule.

 

[ukgrad83]

Where is south alabama sitting?

They're at 112.

 

[CB3UK]

Im glad to see outsiders see some promise. We need to beat Mississippi State plan and simple. Then we need to get over that and focus on picking up that elusive SEC road win @ Faurot Field the following weekend. This bye week came at exactly the right time...get these two wins and the mentality of the team and fans will change and then who knows, maybe we can take down Georgia and finally win one we shouldn't. But trite or not we HAVE to take this one game at a time. #BeatState

 

[JW PRPcoach]

We can win at least 3 of our remaining games if we can quit turning the ball over!!

Vandy had ZERO offensive TD's - we just keep the dang ball we prob win by 17+

 

[JC CATS]

If you were forced to bet on the games straight up - who would you take? I would definitely take Kentucky over Mississippi State. Definitely take Kentucky over Austin Peay. Then it becomes harder. Missouri at home will be dangerous and will probably be the favorite. Georgia at UK will be very interesting. If UK wins the next two, then, IMO, Georgia suddenly becomes an opportunity for UK to win. Now this is were it gets crazy. If UK were to win all three of these games - then the Tennessee game could decide the SEC East! We could see UK, Florida and Tennessee all with 6-2 records! I know this is quite a pipe dream and I don't want to go out saying we are going to be 6-2 in the SEC now - but a fumble or interception at the right time, an unforseen injury, etc. and we could get the breaks to end up with that kind of record. I know what many will say - no way we win over 5 games.

The Tennessee game should be an unwinnable game for us, but in reality Tennessee could easily be 2-4 right now - they did come back and win three games late after being down by two or more touchdowns. Sometimes these things even out!

Go Big Blue!

I like it! Stoops is on the hot seat, he goes on to win the SEC East, upsets Alabama and then...oops just woke up

 

[catzfanjim]

I think KY got much better and I am gonna say something about our game with the Gators. I can't come up with words to describe how hot it was at the Swamp that day. I mean miserable hot, was it hot for their players also, yes but I'll tell you what their fans didn't seem to be bothered nearly as bad as our fans were so I would say it was the same for the players! I would never ever go back to the Swamp for an afternoon game in early fall. this coming from a guy who ordinarily loves hot weather but that was at another level!

So are you saying that Kentucky got drilled that day because you think it was hot for them?