Seth Davis on NU

[NJCat]

The from the mailbag in The Athletic today:

I watched in misery the IU-Northwestern game last week. I’ve followed Chris Collins for as long as I can remember (he and I are the same age), and I’m convinced he can be a great college coach. What’s he gotta do to turn that program around? — David H.

No doubt it has been another tough winter in Evanston, but Collins has a lucrative, long-term guaranteed contract, so he’s not going anywhere. He’s also closer to getting this thing going again than people realize, provided he can fight off the transfer monster and keep his core together. Collins has no seniors in his rotation, and the Wildcats have shown enough to make me believe that in a year or two they could be back in the NCAA Tournament. I realize fans who cheer for this team (and populate the sports media business) don’t like to be reminded that four years ago Collins took Northwestern to its very first NCAA Tournament. They just want to know when he’s doing to do it again. If the current trajectory continues, I say it will happen within the next two years.

https://theathletic.com/2390171/202...a-college-basketball-national-player-of-year/

 

[SmellyCat]

That's great and all, but I for one am really worried about the Transfer Monster after this year.

 

[CappyNU]

That's great and all, but I for one am really worried about the Transfer Monster after this year.

Well, there's been ~1000 transfers each year in D1 the past few years, so given that there's 357 teams statistically it shouldn't be surprising if we had up to 3 transfers, so don't freak out if it happens.

 

[SmellyCat]

I won't freak out, but I'm not banking on the fact that our young team will be better next year because our underclassmen will become upperclassmen. I won't speculate on any one player, but who knows if someone we're really counting on next year will move on for whatever reason.

 

[Styre]

I realize fans who cheer for this team (and populate the sports media business) don’t like to be reminded that four years ago Collins took Northwestern to its very first NCAA Tournament. They just want to know when he’s doing to do it again.

This framing pops up all the time when people talk about Collins, as though he's just barely missed the tournament every year since 2017 and hasn't been rolling out one of the very worst teams in the conference every year. I agree it would be unrealistic at this point for fans to demand annual NCAA appearances. I do not think fans are being silly for wanting us to finish higher than 13th place.

 

[GatoLouco]

That's great and all, but I for one am really worried about the Transfer Monster after this year.

Careful because last time I showed concern for that I got quite a beating in this board.

 

[TheC]

The from the mailbag in The Athletic today:

I watched in misery the IU-Northwestern game last week. I’ve followed Chris Collins for as long as I can remember (he and I are the same age), and I’m convinced he can be a great college coach. What’s he gotta do to turn that program around? — David H.

No doubt it has been another tough winter in Evanston, but Collins has a lucrative, long-term guaranteed contract, so he’s not going anywhere. He’s also closer to getting this thing going again than people realize, provided he can fight off the transfer monster and keep his core together. Collins has no seniors in his rotation, and the Wildcats have shown enough to make me believe that in a year or two they could be back in the NCAA Tournament. I realize fans who cheer for this team (and populate the sports media business) don’t like to be reminded that four years ago Collins took Northwestern to its very first NCAA Tournament. They just want to know when he’s doing to do it again. If the current trajectory continues, I say it will happen within the next two years.

https://theathletic.com/2390171/202...a-college-basketball-national-player-of-year/

I can't imagine Seth Davis watches a ton of NU basketball these days. I think he's wrong that we are only a year or two away from being back in the NCAAs. I'd love for him to be right, but I just don't see it.

 

[IMC Cat]

Davis: "I realize fans who cheer for this team (and populate the sports media business) don’t like to be reminded that four years ago Collins took Northwestern to its very first NCAA Tournament. They just want to know when he’s doing to do it again."

This quote bothers me as well. Seth Davis is essentially saying "Look, you're historically the worst power conference basketball program in existence, so the success of 2016-2017 should still keep you happy and satisfied for a long time. But don't worry, you'll get back there soon, trust me"

He's telling us that we should have zero expectations for success for years at a time because NU is a special kind of pathetic. That the "First Dance" was so magical/flukey that we can all die happy and forget about holding Collins accountable for 4 straight embarrassing seasons.

For our geriatric season ticket holders in the good seats, Davis is probably spot-on. For the rest of us, this free pass given to Collins rings hollow.

 

[NUera]

This quote bothers me as well. Seth Davis is essentially saying "Look, you're historically the worst power conference basketball program in existence, so the success of 2016-2017 should still keep you happy and satisfied for a long time. But don't worry, you'll get back there soon, trust me"

I see it as simply being realistic. Like it or not, we’re trying to build a program with one hand behind our back. That’s our choice. What he’s essentially saying is, you can do that, but then you need to accept that it’s boom and bust. Sometimes you’re gonna be up, the rest of the time you’re either gonna be down... or way, way down.

 

[peatymeanis]

I see it as simply being realistic. Like it or not, we’re trying to build a program with one hand behind our back. That’s our choice. What he’s essentially saying is, you can do that, but then you need to accept that it’s boom and bust. Sometimes you’re gonna be up, the rest of the time you’re either gonna be down... or way, way down.

You must be one of the geriatrics IMC Cat is talking about

 

[willycat]

This quote bothers me as well. Seth Davis is essentially saying "Look, you're historically the worst power conference basketball program in existence, so the success of 2016-2017 should still keep you happy and satisfied for a long time. But don't worry, you'll get back there soon, trust me"

He's telling us that we should have zero expectations for success for years at a time because NU is a special kind of pathetic. That the "First Dance" was so magical/flukey that we can all die happy and forget about holding Collins accountable for 4 straight embarrassing seasons.

For our geriatric season ticket holders in the good seats, Davis is probably spot-on. For the rest of us, this free pass given to Collins rings hollow.

"The Dance" !!!

 

[willycat]

I see it as simply being realistic. Like it or not, we’re trying to build a program with one hand behind our back. That’s our choice. What he’s essentially saying is, you can do that, but then you need to accept that it’s boom and bust. Sometimes you’re gonna be up, the rest of the time you’re either gonna be down... or way, way down.

Sometimes it feels like two hands!

 

[SDakaGordie]

You must be one of the geriatrics IMC Cat is talking about

I wish for the day that Cats turn it around for good, despite the odds. At that time, would it keep you from insulting more fellow alums?

 

[Sec_112]

You can't tell me this is closer than people realize, then reference the evil transfersaurus rex in the next sentence. It can't be that close if you're concerned about transfers.

But I din't think this is the first time the Duke grad, Davis, has been overly-generous to CC.

 

[blockm2]

I can't imagine Seth Davis watches a ton of NU basketball these days. I think he's wrong that we are only a year or two away from being back in the NCAAs. I'd love for him to be right, but I just don't see it.

college basketball isn't the sort of sport where you can even have a great idea of what your roster/lineup will be in 2 seasons down the road. I mean you know what you have this year. You have a pretty good idea of what you will have next season, though even that can have a decent amount of uncertainty. But at this point thinking you are looking good for the 2022-23 season would seem fool hardy at best.

For Northwestern the tourney ain't happening this season and the only question with Collins IMHO is whether you think it looks like he can probably do it next season or not.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I won't freak out, but I'm not banking on the fact that our young team will be better next year because our underclassmen will become upperclassmen. I won't speculate on any one player, but who knows if someone we're really counting on next year will move on for whatever reason.

The carnage!

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

You must be one of the geriatrics IMC Cat is talking about

You must have crappy seats.

 

[NUera]

Sometimes it feels like two hands!

Count me among those who no longer give a fig about admissions standards / exceptions for athletes. Duke has been willing to let in partial qualifiers for at least 20 years (partial qualifiers!!!) and it hasn’t lowered the institution’s academic reputation one bit. Seriously, when have you ever heard of Pfizer or whoever saying they were gonna give Duke a multi-million dollar research grant... but then they heard about Sean Dockery’s SAT score? (In fact, the university’s profile only increased as the the basketball program ascended.)

“But NUera, it’s gonna be so much sweeter when we win!” No it’s not. It’s gonna be exactly the same. At this point our “virtuousness” is either dumb, elitist or dumb and elitist. The world has changed. Enough with the blue-bloody snobbery.

 

[hoosboot]

college basketball isn't the sort of sport where you can even have a great idea of what your roster/lineup will be in 2 seasons down the road. I mean you know what you have this year. You have a pretty good idea of what you will have next season, though even that can have a decent amount of uncertainty. But at this point thinking you are looking good for the 2022-23 season would seem fool hardy at best.

For Northwestern the tourney ain't happening this season and the only question with Collins IMHO is whether you think it looks like he can probably do it next season or not.

For me, it's not whether he can probably do it next season or not...it's whether NU can be reasonably competitive more often than not. That means being in the running for an NIT bid more often than not and occasionally being in the running for the NCAAs and even more occasionally being in the running for more. Have to walk before the program can run and the last couple of years have been barely crawling.

 

[blockm2]

For me, it's not whether he can probably do it next season or not...it's whether NU can be reasonably competitive more often than not. That means being in the running for an NIT bid more often than not and occasionally being in the running for the NCAAs and even more occasionally being in the running for more. Have to walk before the program can run and the last couple of years have been barely crawling.

I don’t disagree, just saying if you are looking at a roster and a recruiting class and trying to guess the future that looking anywhere beyond next year is silly. No program can really say anything much about their roster 2 or 3 years from now.

As for Collins overall, it seems his tenure has been long enough you can already tell what he will likely deliver long term. I can’t imagine another 2 or 3 years of data would change opinions much. He obviously made the tournament once, could do it again, seems unlikely to contend for it with any regularity.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

"The Dance" !!!

Definitely one of the geriatrics

 

[SDakaGordie]

Count me among those who no longer give a fig about admissions standards / exceptions for athletes. Duke has been willing to let in partial qualifiers for at least 20 years (partial qualifiers!!!) and it hasn’t lowered the institution’s academic reputation one bit. Seriously, when have you ever heard of Pfizer or whoever saying they were gonna give Duke a multi-million dollar research grant... but then they heard about Sean Dockery’s SAT score? (In fact, the university’s profile only increased as the the basketball program ascended.) At this point our “virtuousness” is either dumb, elitist or dumb and elitist. The world has changed. Enough with the blue-bloody snobbery.

I’d love to be able to say we can get close to the “and both” of football, but after decades of trying, it just doesn’t seem possible except in very exceptional circumstances. We need to remove this main obstacle to find continued success. Hopefully, we won’t find other issues.

 

[NUera]

I’d love to be able to say we can get close to the “and both” of football, but after decades of trying, it just doesn’t seem possible except in very exceptional circumstances. We need to remove this main obstacle to find continued success. Hopefully, we won’t find other issues.

It’s hard enough convincing kids to take an interest in our program. The least we can do is say yes to the ones who want to come.

 

[ohiovalleycat]

Count me among those who no longer give a fig about admissions standards / exceptions for athletes. Duke has been willing to let in partial qualifiers for at least 20 years (partial qualifiers!!!) and it hasn’t lowered the institution’s academic reputation one bit. Seriously, when have you ever heard of Pfizer or whoever saying they were gonna give Duke a multi-million dollar research grant... but then they heard about Sean Dockery’s SAT score? (In fact, the university’s profile only increased as the the basketball program ascended.)

“But NUera, it’s gonna be so much sweeter when we win!” No it’s not. It’s gonna be exactly the same. At this point our “virtuousness” is either dumb, elitist or dumb and elitist. The world has changed. Enough with the blue-bloody snobbery.

I concur with you to an extent, but I want to note that I will consider being an outstanding athlete or outstanding musician or outstanding artist or outstanding humanitarian to be part of the profile of a student seeking admission. If a student applied for NU with a 2.8 and a 22 ACT and they happened to have an academy award, would they be rejected by the School of Music? If a student applied with a 2.7 and 23 ACT and they had been nominated for the Nobel Peace for Peace for their work on youth violence and gang prevention, would they be rejected by the School for Education and Social Policy? So you have an outstanding athlete with marginal academic qualifications who was All-State or All-American or even qualified for the Olympic Trials or Olympics in a given sport and we will rejected them because they don't have a 3.5 and 95% percentile test score? I don't know what NU admissions considers too low, but I would consider outstanding athletes credentials along with their academics like a sliding scale.

I understand there is a point where someone may simply be unqualified for admissions, because they may not have the basic skills (e.g. reading, writing, math) to succeed at the University...but there are many applicants who are marginal vis-à-vis the general applicant pool who are qualified and may even be middle-of-the-pack students at other schools who warrant consideration with the outstanding non-academic credentials they bring to the university.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I suspect too many applicants that are outstanding in one specific area are denied admission for some egghead that fits the mold of the GPA/ test score they are looking for. How diverse is NU really? You can trumpet the number of states and countries your students are from, but underneath the hood the engine looks quite similar.

 

[TheC]

Count me among those who no longer give a fig about admissions standards / exceptions for athletes. Duke has been willing to let in partial qualifiers for at least 20 years (partial qualifiers!!!) and it hasn’t lowered the institution’s academic reputation one bit. Seriously, when have you ever heard of Pfizer or whoever saying they were gonna give Duke a multi-million dollar research grant... but then they heard about Sean Dockery’s SAT score? (In fact, the university’s profile only increased as the the basketball program ascended.)

“But NUera, it’s gonna be so much sweeter when we win!” No it’s not. It’s gonna be exactly the same. At this point our “virtuousness” is either dumb, elitist or dumb and elitist. The world has changed. Enough with the blue-bloody snobbery.

I've said this before on here. Northwestern should be synonymous with excellence. If you are one of the best in the world at what you do, there should be place for you at Northwestern no matter your grades or SAT scores.

 

[GatoLouco]

My 2 cents:
1) A college should also be in the business of upward mobility
2) It's an elitist enough position that it bothers me
3) Make the standards for staying in reasonably demanding, make the standards for getting in on par with others
4) Be upfront with recruits about #3
5) Help the kids who want to be helped. The ones who don't, there's #3 and #4

I'd understand it if we were in the Ivy. As there would be a case for having to comply not only with what the school feels it's important standards wise, but also the brand image of the league and its academic institutions. Not in the B1G

 

[Curdog7]

My 2 cents:
1) A college should also be in the business of upward mobility
2) It's an elitist enough position that it bothers me
3) Make the standards for staying in reasonably demanding, make the standards for getting in on par with others
4) Be upfront with recruits about #3
5) Help the kids who want to be helped. The ones who don't, there's #3 and #4

I'd understand it if we were in the Ivy. As there would be a case for having to comply not only with what the school feels it's important standards wise, but also the brand image of the league and its academic institutions. Not in the B1G

Ivy League actually has a quantitative way to assess admissions for athletes (Academic Index). An athlete has to be within one standard deviation of the average AI of the entire student body. Each school is allowed a certain number of slots for athletes that fall outside this range (there is a floor AI where an athlete won’t be admitted under any circumstance).

traditionally, the schools used the exception slots for football but Harvard decided to use them for basketball when they hired Amaker. Voila, Harvard becomes an Ivy League powerhouse in bball.

I’m not in favor of this approach, but my bet is NU does something similar, but less formal in structure.

http://www.abrome.com/blog/academic-index

 

[GatoLouco]

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/college-athletes-dont-get-paid-racial-inequities

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Ivy League actually has a quantitative way to assess admissions for athletes (Academic Index). An athlete has to be within one standard deviation of the average AI of the entire student body. Each school is allowed a certain number of slots for athletes that fall outside this range (there is a floor AI where an athlete won’t be admitted under any circumstance).

traditionally, the schools used the exception slots for football but Harvard decided to use them for basketball when they hired Amaker. Voila, Harvard becomes an Ivy League powerhouse in bball.

I’m not in favor of this approach, but my bet is NU does something similar, but less formal in structure.

http://www.abrome.com/blog/academic-index

What’s the graduation rate of those exceptions?

 

[Curdog7]

What’s the graduation rate of those exceptions?

Well, I’m not an expert but the average graduation rate of all Ivy League athletes is 98%

 

[willycat]

What’s the graduation rate of those exceptions?

Hey maybe Strotz had it right. Just kidding. I think,

 

[NUera]

What’s the graduation rate of those exceptions?

If our graduation rate dips because people leave early for the pros, I’m okay with that.

 

[NUChicago]

Me thinks Seth hasn’t watched much of our games but this is laughable.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

If our graduation rate dips because people leave early for the pros, I’m okay with that.

I am thinking Harvard B Ball exceptions graduate too. These are athletic teams not the academic bowl. Let the kids in.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Well, I’m not an expert but the average graduation rate of all Ivy League athletes is 98%

I guess their exceptions aren’t hurting their academic reputation.