So, How do We Beat Purdue?

[scoobycat]

Edey is by far best player on the floor. We need our guys to win their matchups against their other guys. Both Rutgers & Purdue won their individual matchups outside of Edey and ended up beating them. We have better guards, just need them to play like it

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

To add to what others have indicated, regarding the NET - a Quad 1 loss is a Quad 1 loss - doesn't matter if you lose by 20 or 2 in quadruple OT. Doesn't matter if the refs called so many fouls on your team that Gus Hurlburt was playing center against Zach Edey.

The computer algorithms usually see it differently. A 1 point loss is MUCH better than a 21 point loss. However since many of these algos weight each game equally, the impact on your team rating is not huge. A 20 point difference in the final score will move your team rating about a point if you have played 20 games. So you might move 5 spots up or down against the rest of the teams as a result of a lopsided outcome.

The bad part is that (for Sagarin) a 38 point win over Chicago State in November, when the ratings say we should have won by 19 is just as impressive as a 14 point win over Purdue in a February game Purdue should win by 5.

 

[Titanium999]

Purdue gets most of their minutes from 8-9 guys.

Zedey leads in minutes, points, rebounds, and shoe size, but he has no leg speed. He accounts for 30% of PU's points.

2 guys scoring in double figures (Zedey and freshman guard Loyer).

Braden Smith, freshman guard, and Mason Gillis, wing forward, both shoot over 40% from 3.

Zedey went off for 33 and 18 vs IU, but PU still lost with 16 turnovers and 10-17 from the stripe. They shot 14-38 from the field when Zedey wasn't shooting.

That's probably the blueprint: pressure the young guards and try to turn it over. See if Big Matt can keep Zedey away from the basket and make him work.

I think we'll have to score 75 to beat them.

Leg speed! We rule in the 3rd and 4th quarters of all our games this year! Wear em down!

 

[CappyNU]

The difference between Purdue and OSU is that OSU has maybe 2 guys who can reliably hit the 3, and Purdue has 5 of them.

If we want to beat them, forcing them into turnovers is essential. In 13 games when they turned the ball over on fewer than 18% of possessions, they won by 3 or less only once. In the 12 games where they were above 18%, they won by 3 or less five times which includes both losses. Magic number for turnovers is 12, if we can get above that, we've got a chance. Edey personally is susceptible to turnovers, having at least three in 9 of 14 conference games this year.

Back to Edey, in 5 out of 14 games he's been held to fewer than 10 shots. Purdue won those games by margins of 3, 18, 22, 20, and 14. I do not think it will be beneficial to try and limit him to the extent that we can't guard the outside shooters.

Regarding Loyer, he has really struggled shooting the past 7 games, only 24% from 3. Hopefully he doesn't rediscover his stroke against us. In the Rutgers loss, they limited him to only 1 shot inside the arc when he averages 6 per game. Rutgers did the same to the PG, Smith.

We have to play a perfect game if we want to win, really. On paper it's a bad matchup. Purdue is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference, we're 2nd worst at defensive rebounds. We're the best at getting to the foul line, but they're the best at not fouling (somehow, this is shocking to me given the nature of literally every Painter-coached team). They're the best at moving the ball on offense, and we force teams to move the ball more than anyone else. They're the 2nd-best shooting team, we're 4th-worst at defensive FG%.

But...that's why we play the games, isn't it?

So, in summary:

• 3 of Purdue's 5 long-range shooters made 3s, none after the first 10 and a half minutes of the game.
• Purdue turned the ball over 16 times for a TO% of 24.6
• Edey had 6 turnovers, tying a career high
• Edey took 10 shots
• Loyer did not rediscover his stroke, shot 1-6 for the game with no 3s
• Smith shot 1-7 and completely melted down late in the game
• Purdue only got 30% of their missed shots, their 5th-worst mark on the season
• We got to the foul line more than any other team has against Purdue this year
• They had assists on 88.2% of their made shots
• We held them to their 3rd-worst shooting performance on the season

By no means was it a perfect game, but...that's why we play the games.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

• They had assists on 88.2% of their made shots

We have a poster around these parts who has rightly pointed out (harped on?) that this is the dumbest of all the offensive statistics.

 

[NUCat320]

So, in summary:

• 3 of Purdue's 5 long-range shooters made 3s, none after the first 10 and a half minutes of the game.
• Purdue turned the ball over 16 times for a TO% of 24.6
• Edey had 6 turnovers, tying a career high
• Edey took 10 shots
• Loyer did not rediscover his stroke, shot 1-6 for the game with no 3s
• Smith shot 1-7 and completely melted down late in the game
• Purdue only got 30% of their missed shots, their 5th-worst mark on the season
• We got to the foul line more than any other team has against Purdue this year
• They had assists on 88.2% of their made shots
• We held them to their 3rd-worst shooting performance on the season

By no means was it a perfect game, but...that's why we play the games.

Most FT attempts of the season. That’s awesome, and practically unheard of prior to this season.

NU doubled soooo aggressively and it was glorious.

 

[NUCat320]

• They had assists on 88.2% of their made shots

We have a poster around these parts who has rightly pointed out (harped on?) that this is the dumbest of all the offensive statistics.

@Dugan15 hasn’t done his requested homework yet (lol), but I wonder if a high opponent assist rate is actually an indicator of strong defense. If a lot of buckets are getting assisted, it probably means the defense is making the offense work.

 

[GatoLouco]

NU doubled soooo aggressively and it was glorious.

I said during the game thread it pleased me to see the marks on Edey's arms.

I find it abhorrent endangering other players. But I find it a part of the game being physical and making them feel your breath during the game. Marks like those happen when you are physical. Don't need to see them, but they are proof we are bringing it to them.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I'll just post this here:

I love the General RmK. What a hoot

 

[rwhitney014]

OSU hit a ton of 2s at a very high rate last night, while shooting atrociously from 3. They more or less wrote the 3 off in the last 15 or so minutes of the game. We won. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing if one guy goes off for a big game - it just means you need to stop the other guys from getting to double digits themselves.

We do need to do a much better job cleaning the glass than we did last night. Edey averages more than 5 offensive boards a game. Can we keep him below that number? Largely limit Purdue to one attempt per possession? That would help.

I too had the foul trouble thought, but Edey hasn't had more than 3 fouls in a conference game this year. Which is amazing. Makes me wonder if Painter would even lift him if we got 2 quick fouls on him anyway.

They do turn the ball over a lot. We'll have to force 15+ and score 20-25 points off them. We'll have to hit open shots - not much margin for error. It will be hard, of course, but beating a #1 should be! This is a cake game. Lose and no one really bats an eye, but win and we'll open a lot of them.

Since no one else will, can I give myself some credit here?

- Edey had 3 offensive rebounds, 2 below his season average.
- Each team had 9 offensive boards, so we did not have an imbalance on number of attempts.
- Edey got his points, but only one other Purdue player got to 10. And it was only 10, compared to Chase’s 15 as our #2 scorer.
- We did get 3 fouls on Edey, not that it affected the game.
- We forced 16 turnovers and scored 22 off them. Nailed it.
- Eyes wide open.

 

[No Chores]

In last night's coverage, Brando and Jackson kept making the good point that one of the consequences of our double teams is that it keeps our bigs out of foul trouble. I think if we let our guys go 1-on-1 against Edey, we will be left with Brooks Barnhizer playing center by the end. Tyus will foul out in 46 seconds.

I think you do make Edey work. He will still get his 25-30 points, but make him work really hard. When I see a big guy dominate the way he does, I always wonder why a team would ever run a play that doesn't involve just giving it to him in the post? I guess it must be because eventually those big guys wear down. So, let's wear him down.

Our rotations out of the double team have gotten much better as of late, so I'm hoping we focus on their top shooters out of the rotation and just hope that their third option doesn't have a career shooting night. You also have to look out for Loyer cutting to the basket.

The other challenge with Edey is that he is a force on the defensive end and will hurt the ability of Boo and Chase driving into the paint. Maybe they can get into his body and force some fouls, but he is just so tall that he can swat them away from an arm's length.

This all said, the one team that plays defense like us is Rutgers and they beat this Purdue team in West Lafayette. Never say never Cat fans!!

Nice job here - everything you said in this post proved to be true.

 

[TheC]

Nice job here - everything you said in this post proved to be true.

I know... I'm scared too!