My two cents:
I was kind of stunned at the chicken-little, sky-is-falling, fire Collins now rhetoric on this board after the Pitt loss. Seemed like an over-reaction to me. Similarly, while I was happy at the team's play in their first three Big Ten wins, I think talk of an NCAA tournament bid was premature.
I tend to take a middle-of-the-road approach. Yes, these last few losses were bad. But they were to teams that are very, very good. We can debate all we want about whether IL is a Final Four team and whether Iowa or Michigan is the best team in the Big Ten. We didn't play our best in any of the three losses and we ran into teams that played much better than we did.
But I'm not sure many of us would have predicted a .500 record after 6 games in conference play at the beginning of the season. Honestly, given this opening schedule: MSU, Indiana, OSU, Iowa, Michigan, IL - how many of us would have predicted a split? Especially coming off last season.
Based on the games I've watched, here is my assessment: we are a better team than we were last year. We have better talent and depth overall than last year, and the team has a better mental fortitude than last year in terms of closing out wins when we have the lead and not faltering when other teams make a run. Last season, we folded pretty much every time the other team made a run at us. This year, we have held on at times.
The talent gap in the Big Ten is narrow from top to bottom. If a middle of the pack team (us) plays well, it has a chance to knock off a top tier team. If a middle of the pack team plays poorly, it is likely to get demolished. If a top tier team brings its "A" game, only another top tier team will likely have a chance to win.
We played some of our best basketball against MSU, Indiana and OSU. I don't think we actually played that poorly against Iowa - they just simply got hot from outside. (Some of Bohannon's 3s were just ridiculous.) Michigan and IL played well and we were overmatched, plain and simple. Yes, we played a terrible 2nd half against IL. It happens, even to the most talented teams in the country - that's why we rarely see a team have a perfect season - almost everyone, even Final Four level teams, drop a game or two.
In the end, I don't think this points to any particular deficiency in our lineup or any particular flaw in the coaching staff. We are in the toughest conference in the country. In order to win, we need to at least have a B+ game in any given night. If we play our A game, I like our chances with anyone in the conference. But our margin for error is slim. The margins of error for most teams in the Big Ten is slim as well.
I remain cautiously optimistic about our season. I think we will have a better record than last year. I think our team is moving in the right direction and I like the players we have. They're not perfect, but they have the talent to compete and are starting to learn how to win. But it's still a learning process for them. I think Coach Collins is the right coach for Northwestern. He's not perfect, but then I don't think any coach is. But college basketball, even more than football, is dependent on recruiting. And I think he has proven to be a good recruiter. Over time, I think he will get our team to be consistently competitive in the Big Ten, which is saying a lot, given how tough this conference is.