There's a great website called hoop-explorer.com that I think I've referenced before. You can pull out a ton of info from it if you know how to work the tools - not the most intuitive system. I was able to get a comparison though between our 5 games against non-P5 competition and our 6 P5 opponents, so here's some nuggets I found:
1. The offense basically performs the same when adjusted for competition against both groups. One big difference is that we shoot 3% fewer 3-pointers and 3% more midrange jumpers against P5 teams, and the other big difference is that we have 26% of our possessions in transition against non-P5 vs 19% against P5.
2. The defense, on the other hand...yikes. Against non-P5 teams, we're great. Holding teams to just 40% shooting, barely fouling, getting turnovers on 21% of possessions, forcing teams into a ton of bad midrange shots while keeping them away from the rim, and blocking 1 out of 8 shots when they do get to the rim. Against P5 teams, we are atrocious, and it's all on the interior. We allow 20 more points per 100 possessions against P5 vs non-P5 when adjusted for competition. Teams have 17% of possessions in transition vs just 8% against non-P5. We let teams get to the rim way too often, where they are shooting 63%, and when they miss shots, they are rebounding 39% of their own misses. We also foul at an insanely high rate and don't force very many turnovers. It spells trouble, big-time, for conference season.
3. Nick Martinelli - P5 teams have been successful at forcing him into midrange jumpshots and floaters - 46% of his shots are midrange against P5 vs 33% against non-P5, along with getting the ball out of his hands - assist rate is doubled against P5 compared to non-P5 (12% vs 6%). He also only hits 39% of those midrange shots against P5 vs 57% against non-P5. P5 teams have completely squashed his transition opportunities as well, at just 6% of his possessions vs 16%, along with his ability to get catch-and-shoot 3s off (2.5% vs 11%). We need to do a better job of getting him opportunities to get downhill if we want to be successful.
4. Arrinten Page - Against P5 teams, he turns the ball over twice as much (13% vs 6%), gets offensive boards at half the rate (6% vs 12%), and gets to the FT line significantly less (FTRate of 28 vs 69, yeesh). Like Martinelli, P5 teams are forcing him away from the rim, though he has been excellent from 2-point range, but just 3-14 from distance. He's also rebounding much less on the defensive side while fouling a lot more. His offensive game looks pretty much the same, just less efficient.
5. Jayden Reid - Let's start with the positives. His 3-point shooting is much better against the P5 teams than the others, 39% vs 10%. He's also taking 1/3 of his shots as 3s against P5 vs 24% against non-P5. His assist rate is also much higher against P5 - 36% vs 31%. Unfortunately, there's a lot of negatives too. Turnovers on 22% of possessions is very high for a PG on a CC-coached team, he's barely forcing any steals, is fouling at an unbelievable rate and shoots just 32% at the rim. He's another player who has really been hurt by not getting transition opportunities, as 24% of his possessions against non-P5 are in transition but just 12% against P5 - and even when he does get them, he is woefully inefficient at finishing.
6. Playing time/rotation - Martinelli is averaging 36mpg against P5 teams vs 30mpg against non-P5. Page is at 30mpg vs 26, Reid is at 28mpg vs 25. Singleton has been steady at 23mpg. After that it gets more interesting. Gelo is at 27mpg against P5 vs just 16mpg against non-P5, KJ was at 15 vs 17 until he essentially didn't play the past two games, Mullins got 20mpg against DePaul and Virginia before only getting 4mpg in the next 4 P5 games, and Clayton went from not playing in 3 P5 games to now logging 23mpg against both P5 and non-P5.
We have 20 games left to play, and 12 of them are against Quad 1 opposition. Right now per Torvik, the Wisconsin road game is rated as our 8th-toughest out of 10 while the OSU home game is our 5th-toughest home game of the 10. That is to say, don't expect a lot of wins the rest of the way unless we suddenly learn how to play much better team defense.
1. The offense basically performs the same when adjusted for competition against both groups. One big difference is that we shoot 3% fewer 3-pointers and 3% more midrange jumpers against P5 teams, and the other big difference is that we have 26% of our possessions in transition against non-P5 vs 19% against P5.
2. The defense, on the other hand...yikes. Against non-P5 teams, we're great. Holding teams to just 40% shooting, barely fouling, getting turnovers on 21% of possessions, forcing teams into a ton of bad midrange shots while keeping them away from the rim, and blocking 1 out of 8 shots when they do get to the rim. Against P5 teams, we are atrocious, and it's all on the interior. We allow 20 more points per 100 possessions against P5 vs non-P5 when adjusted for competition. Teams have 17% of possessions in transition vs just 8% against non-P5. We let teams get to the rim way too often, where they are shooting 63%, and when they miss shots, they are rebounding 39% of their own misses. We also foul at an insanely high rate and don't force very many turnovers. It spells trouble, big-time, for conference season.
3. Nick Martinelli - P5 teams have been successful at forcing him into midrange jumpshots and floaters - 46% of his shots are midrange against P5 vs 33% against non-P5, along with getting the ball out of his hands - assist rate is doubled against P5 compared to non-P5 (12% vs 6%). He also only hits 39% of those midrange shots against P5 vs 57% against non-P5. P5 teams have completely squashed his transition opportunities as well, at just 6% of his possessions vs 16%, along with his ability to get catch-and-shoot 3s off (2.5% vs 11%). We need to do a better job of getting him opportunities to get downhill if we want to be successful.
4. Arrinten Page - Against P5 teams, he turns the ball over twice as much (13% vs 6%), gets offensive boards at half the rate (6% vs 12%), and gets to the FT line significantly less (FTRate of 28 vs 69, yeesh). Like Martinelli, P5 teams are forcing him away from the rim, though he has been excellent from 2-point range, but just 3-14 from distance. He's also rebounding much less on the defensive side while fouling a lot more. His offensive game looks pretty much the same, just less efficient.
5. Jayden Reid - Let's start with the positives. His 3-point shooting is much better against the P5 teams than the others, 39% vs 10%. He's also taking 1/3 of his shots as 3s against P5 vs 24% against non-P5. His assist rate is also much higher against P5 - 36% vs 31%. Unfortunately, there's a lot of negatives too. Turnovers on 22% of possessions is very high for a PG on a CC-coached team, he's barely forcing any steals, is fouling at an unbelievable rate and shoots just 32% at the rim. He's another player who has really been hurt by not getting transition opportunities, as 24% of his possessions against non-P5 are in transition but just 12% against P5 - and even when he does get them, he is woefully inefficient at finishing.
6. Playing time/rotation - Martinelli is averaging 36mpg against P5 teams vs 30mpg against non-P5. Page is at 30mpg vs 26, Reid is at 28mpg vs 25. Singleton has been steady at 23mpg. After that it gets more interesting. Gelo is at 27mpg against P5 vs just 16mpg against non-P5, KJ was at 15 vs 17 until he essentially didn't play the past two games, Mullins got 20mpg against DePaul and Virginia before only getting 4mpg in the next 4 P5 games, and Clayton went from not playing in 3 P5 games to now logging 23mpg against both P5 and non-P5.
We have 20 games left to play, and 12 of them are against Quad 1 opposition. Right now per Torvik, the Wisconsin road game is rated as our 8th-toughest out of 10 while the OSU home game is our 5th-toughest home game of the 10. That is to say, don't expect a lot of wins the rest of the way unless we suddenly learn how to play much better team defense.
