Some stats from the Maryland game

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Here's how the individuals performed in the context of the team, as used by the coach.

Player	To Date Performance Rating​	NU Pts Scored vs MD​	Pts Allowed vs MD​	Minutes vs MD​
Elyjah Williams	1.570​	22​	14​	12.3​
Ryan Greer	1.270​	36​	21​	17.5​
Ryan Young	1.185​	16​	13​	11.0​
Boo Buie	1.047​	56​	53​	33.6​
Chase Audige	1.021​	48​	47​	26.8​
Julian Roper	0.993​	21​	18​	13.8​
Pete Nance	0.986​	54​	47​	31.0​
Ty Berry	0.975​	19​	25​	19.2​
Casey Simmons	0.974​	21​	19​	15.9​
Robbie Beran	0.860​	42​	45​	25.2​

Coming into the Maryland game, our most successful two man combos had been Ryan Young with Elyjah Williams and, in the backcourt, Ryan Greer with Boo Buie.
In the Maryland game, Young was on the bench with foul problems, so the combo with Williams went 9-7 over 5.5 minutes of action. Overall they are 60-41 thru 4 games vs Power 5 competition.
Playing with Pete Nance, Williams "won" 13-7 over 7 minutes. That frontcourt combo is now up 34-19 in 19 minutes of gametime.
Buie and Greer succeeded again, going 25-13 over about 11 minutes. They were good in the first half and Collins paired them at the end of the game. Against Power 5 competition, they have gone 139-101 in 66 minutes of action.

 

[NUCat320]

Where’s Nicholson?

 

[Alan Smithee_rivals156293]

Where’s Nicholson?

11:30 on a Monday…probably in class.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Where’s Nicholson?

Because his playing time is so limited, I didn't include him.
I only evaluate the guys in the rotation.
Same as last year.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

These are just +/- stats with a rate thrown in, right?

Very hockey. Do you have a way of balancing for opponent players?

Also, what would you use these numbers for? WOuld you advocate for succeeding backups to get more reps against the opposing #1s or is it merely a tool to get a different look at who did well and who did poorly in their existing role? Is this tracked elsewhere or is this something you do?

Legitimately looking to learn.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

These are just +/- stats with a rate thrown in, right?

Very hockey. Do you have a way of balancing for opponent players?

Also, what would you use these numbers for? WOuld you advocate for succeeding backups to get more reps against the opposing #1s or is it merely a tool to get a different look at who did well and who did poorly in their existing role? Is this tracked elsewhere or is this something you do?

Legitimately looking to learn.

Yes. The Performance rate is just the ratio of points scored to points allowed when each guy is on the floor.

I use the numbers to evaluate players generally and to evaluate combinations. Some would insist that I use them as a way to criticize Chris Collins use of his roster, but that is simply a byproduct of the data.

There is no way, based on the data, that Robbie Beran should be playing more than Ryan Young, for example. This year, it is crystal clear (so far) that we have played much better when Williams is at the 4 instead of Beran. (That fact surprises me because I thought Williams wouldn't do much).

I don't adjust for the players on the other team. Its just way too much work - you would have to go thru each of the box scores of each opponent! No thanks!

My philosophy is that basketball is a team game and good players help their team outscore their opponent. Team offense, Team defense. Intangibles. It is NOT "who would win a game of one on one?"

And yes, you have indicated an important insight - the "+/-" value of each player is highly influenced by the players with whom the coach teams him. A great example of that is how badly Boo Buie's stats last season were affected by the lineups that Collins "stuck him with." When you adjusted for that, it was clear that Buie, Young and Nance were our top 3 guys and actually "above average" players in the league.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Thanks much. Obviously flaws and drawbacks to this approach but very interesting to look at and consider as part of holistic consideration. Looking forward to following this through the year!

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Thanks much. Obviously flaws and drawbacks to this approach but very interesting to look at and consider as part of holistic consideration. Looking forward to following this through the year!

Thanks.
You can only do so much with the data, but play by play data is much more useful than looking at a box score and trying to adjust based on recollections from the game.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Thanks.
You can only do so much with the data, but play by play data is much more useful than looking at a box score and trying to adjust based on recollections from the game.

Even with drawbacks it's just better to have numbers as a basis of a conversation, ie. "players x y and z played well and have outscored opponents by q% together this year" rather than "my eyes tell me x, y, and z is or isn't a good combo of players" as the basis of a conversation. Numbers can lie and we could argue about WHY (ie, the answer could be well they're our 6-8 guys and are better than the other 6-8 guys but it doesn't mean they should become the 1-3 guys) but it's just a better grounding for discussion.

This is a super NU thread.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Here's how the individuals performed in the context of the team, as used by the coach.

Player	To Date Performance Rating​	NU Pts Scored vs MD​	Pts Allowed vs MD​	Minutes vs MD​
Elyjah Williams	1.570​	22​	14​	12.3​
Ryan Greer	1.270​	26​	14​	14.2​
Ryan Young	1.185​	16​	13​	11.0​
Boo Buie	1.047​	56​	53​	33.6​
Chase Audige	1.021​	48​	47​	26.8​
Julian Roper	0.993​	21​	18​	13.8​
Pete Nance	0.986​	54​	47​	31.0​
Ty Berry	0.975​	29​	32​	19.2​
Casey Simmons	0.974​	21​	19​	12.4​
Robbie Beran	0.860​	42​	45​	25.2​

Coming into the Maryland game, our most successful two man combos had been Ryan Young with Elyjah Williams and, in the backcourt, Ryan Greer with Boo Buie.
In the Maryland game, Young was on the bench with foul problems, so the combo with Williams went 9-7 over 5.5 minutes of action. Overall they are 60-41 thru 4 games vs Power 5 competition.
Playing with Pete Nance, Williams "won" 13-7 over 7 minutes. That frontcourt combo is now up 34-19 in 19 minutes of gametime.
Buie and Greer succeeded again, going 15-6 over about 8 minutes. Interestingly, they did not play together in the 2nd half. Against Power 5 competition, they have gone 129-94 in 63 minutes of action.

How do you collect these minute by minute stats for each player? I assume you have some sort of computer program that automates it?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

How do you collect these minute by minute stats for each player? I assume you have some sort of computer program that automates it?

No, actually not.
There is someone out there, an NU fan, who has been producing play-by-play box scores for all of our games going back to the 2013-14 season, I think.
Those things include all the substitutions, the times, who scored, who turned it over, who fouled. Very Impressive and dedicated.
CappyNU uses that data as well and knows who does that work.

Using those box scores, I manually input the lineup changes, times and scores into an excel spreadsheet and run macros to generate all the individual, two man, 3 man, 4 man and 5 man results. I find it very useful as it corrects my "impressions" quite often. It also enables some cool insights that I would never come up with on my own. People can only see so much while watching a game and tend to grade players on a very limited set of statistics, even as bad as "That was a great dunk - he's our best player." The box scores take a very cold, unbiased look at actual results in a team sport.

I only stumbled onto this when I joined WildcatReport last year. For me, it was a real eye-opener.

Whoever does those box scores is awesome. This is the only place I know to find them.

2025-26 Men's Basketball Schedule - Northwestern Athletics

The official 2025-26 Men's Basketball schedule for the Northwestern Wildcats

nusports.com

 

[xxxbobxxx]

No, actually not.
There is someone out there, an NU fan, who has been producing play-by-play box scores for all of our games going back to the 2013-14 season, I think.
Those things include all the substitutions, the times, who scored, who turned it over, who fouled. Very Impressive and dedicated.
CappyNU uses that data as well and knows who does that work.

Using those box scores, I manually input the lineup changes, times and scores into an excel spreadsheet and run macros to generate all the individual, two man, 3 man, 4 man and 5 man results. I find it very useful as it corrects my "impressions" quite often. It also enables some cool insights that I would never come up with on my own. People can only see so much while watching a game and tend to grade players on a very limited set of statistics, even as bad as "That was a great dunk - he's our best player." The box scores take a very cold, unbiased look at actual results in a team sport.

I only stumbled onto this when I joined WildcatReport last year. For me, it was a real eye-opener.

Whoever does those box scores is awesome. This is the only place I know to find them.

2025-26 Men's Basketball Schedule - Northwestern Athletics

The official 2025-26 Men's Basketball schedule for the Northwestern Wildcats

nusports.com

One good use, IMHO, is to find options when things aren’t going well. Does it mean it will work? No. But if we are getting are teeth kicked regularly, can’t hurt to run out there some statistically success options and see what happens.

That’s what angers me. We have sucked. And I hope the coaches have advanced analytics available. So why not run a game with a heavy dose of nance young? And so on.

And in games against cupcakes, why not run’ next years lineup’ just to see how they do - play the regulars as backups and see what happens. Gonna have injuries, gonna have next year, gonna maybe have surprises. Instead of trying to blow out a cupcake 100-12, experiment. Cuz at some point, the regular starters are just out there show boating anyway.

You can always fall back to the ‘trusted’ lineup of things get to close.

 

[freewillie07]

I have no statistics to back this up, but just a casual observation that it does almost feel like NU aims to play two different styles of offense with the starters and then the second unit, which is very much focused on getting Ryan Young touches and going from there. I think the play of Young and Williams together can work in shorter spurts as a smash-mouth type post offense, and then Boo-Berry-Audige-Beran-Nance play faster and spread the floor.

The way Young plays in the post is very physically demanding, obviously. I don’t think he has to get 25+ minutes per game to be most effective with the depth we have. There’s value in keeping guys fresh.

 

[NUCat320]

I have no statistics to back this up, but just a casual observation that it does almost feel like NU aims to play two different styles of offense with the starters and then the second unit, which is very much focused on getting Ryan Young touches and going from there. I think the play of Young and Williams together can work in shorter spurts as a smash-mouth type post offense, and then Boo-Berry-Audige-Beran-Nance play faster and spread the floor.

The way Young plays in the post is very physically demanding, obviously. I don’t think he has to get 25+ minutes per game to be most effective with the depth we have. There’s value in keeping guys fresh.

I think this is correct. I pointed out in a near-jinx in the game thread that the ‘second team’ (Greer, Roper, Williams, Young, with Berry then Audige) had a very good stretch in the second half on Sunday.

Young got the ball with a chance to initiate from the block a few times, lots of bodying up. He did definitely get a chance to be the focal point in that group.

 

[GatoLouco]

I think this is correct. I pointed out in a near-jinx in the game thread that the ‘second team’ (Greer, Roper, Williams, Young, with Berry then Audige) had a very good stretch in the second half on Sunday.

Young got the ball with a chance to initiate from the block a few times, lots of bodying up. He did definitely get a chance to be the focal point in that group.

That lineup sucked for a couple of minutes as it seemed it was 4 guys not used to initiate anything just waiting for Young to make something happen. Then Audige comes in for Berry, scores two baskets in a row, there’s a 3 from Williams at some point and we have a nice little run.

I think this second unit of bench players is a dangerous solution. I’d much rather see a rotation that keeps 3 starters, at least 2 on the floor at all times.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I think this is correct. I pointed out in a near-jinx in the game thread that the ‘second team’ (Greer, Roper, Williams, Young, with Berry then Audige) had a very good stretch in the second half on Sunday.

Young got the ball with a chance to initiate from the block a few times, lots of bodying up. He did definitely get a chance to be the focal point in that group.

The thing is, one could easily argue that a team of Young, Williams, Buie, Greer and Audige would defeat a team of Nance and Beran and clones of Buie, Greer and Audige.

If we could clone guys ,I am quite certain that a team of Young and Nance with 3 players would beat anything else we could come up with like Beran or Williams and Nance plus those 3 cloned players.

So that tells me Young and Nance should start. With Buie, Audige and either Berry or Greer.

Its a no-brainer, in my opinion.

 

[CSCatFan1]

The thing is, one could easily argue that a team of Young, Williams, Buie, Greer and Audige would defeat a team of Nance and Beran and clones of Buie, Greer and Audige.

If we could clone guys ,I am quite certain that a team of Young and Nance with 3 players would beat anything else we could come up with like Beran or Williams and Nance plus those 3 cloned players.

So that tells me Young and Nance should start. With Buie, Audige and either Berry or Greer.

Its a no-brainer, in my opinion.

Thanks for sharing. We’d have never guessed.

 

[SDakaGordie]

That lineup sucked for a couple of minutes as it seemed it was 4 guys not used to initiate anything just waiting for Young to make something happen. Then Audige comes in for Berry, scores two baskets in a row, there’s a 3 from Williams at some point and we have a nice little run.

I think this second unit of bench players is a dangerous solution. I’d much rather see a rotation that keeps 3 starters, at least 2 on the floor at all times.

To me, this suggestion would take away our depth advantage. We are playing better in the second half for a reason - depth.

 

[GatoLouco]

To me, this suggestion would take away our depth advantage. We are playing better in the second half for a reason - depth.

There’s something to having fresher legs for sure. I’m not advocating not giving 10 minutes to a lot of our guys, just a different rotation that does not leave 4 guys out there that are not used to carry the load offensively.

We’re talking about a very small sample of games anyway. It’s still very fresh in my mind how prone we were to long droughts last year. We had a 10 minute stretch against WF where we scored 2 points.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Thanks for sharing. We’d have never guessed.

Tool

 

[timbfischer]

No, actually not.
There is someone out there, an NU fan, who has been producing play-by-play box scores for all of our games going back to the 2013-14 season, I think.
Those things include all the substitutions, the times, who scored, who turned it over, who fouled. Very Impressive and dedicated.
CappyNU uses that data as well and knows who does that work.

Using those box scores, I manually input the lineup changes, times and scores into an excel spreadsheet and run macros to generate all the individual, two man, 3 man, 4 man and 5 man results. I find it very useful as it corrects my "impressions" quite often. It also enables some cool insights that I would never come up with on my own. People can only see so much while watching a game and tend to grade players on a very limited set of statistics, even as bad as "That was a great dunk - he's our best player." The box scores take a very cold, unbiased look at actual results in a team sport.

I only stumbled onto this when I joined WildcatReport last year. For me, it was a real eye-opener.

Whoever does those box scores is awesome. This is the only place I know to find them.

2025-26 Men's Basketball Schedule - Northwestern Athletics

The official 2025-26 Men's Basketball schedule for the Northwestern Wildcats

nusports.com

So, because you are doing this manually, it would be interesting to see how this changes based only in situations where the game is close/early. There is a reason that hockey's Corsi and Fenwick don't include situations where the game is lopsided late or power play situations. Just curious if that would change anything.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Thanks for sharing. We’d have never guessed.

You may find this hard to believe, but you are not the center of the universe.

 

[Sec_112]

Buie and Greer succeeded again, going 15-6 over about 8 minutes. Interestingly, they did not play together in the 2nd half.

Just so your facts are straight, Buie and Greer played 11:05 together going 25-13.

 

[CappyNU]

Yeah, Boo was -9 on the floor without Greer, and +12 with him. Berry had a real rough game, it may be time for him to come off the bench and put Simmons back in the starting lineup as Collins did to start the 2nd half. Greer was +15 in only 17:32 in a game we won by 6, he has come a real long way in his career.

Boo-Audige-Beran-Nance and...
Berry: -8 in 6:32
Greer: +8 in 4:44
Roper: +2 in 4:20
Simmons: -2 in 1:49

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Just so your facts are straight, Buie and Greer played 11:05 together going 25-13.

Thanks - I messed up the substitution at 3:21 where Buie came in for Berry, not Greer.
Thanks a lot for pointing that out.
I'll correct the grid for the game.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

So, because you are doing this manually, it would be interesting to see how this changes based only in situations where the game is close/early. There is a reason that hockey's Corsi and Fenwick don't include situations where the game is lopsided late or power play situations. Just curious if that would change anything.

All I really do is throw out garbage time where scrubs are playing and occasionally free throw shooting situations where one team extends the lead significantly.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

This is good stuff- thanks for sharing. As you said, it can't tell you everything, but it's a good data point to consider when looking at which players are getting playing time and different combinations of players.

 

[freewillie07]

Yeah, Boo was -9 on the floor without Greer, and +12 with him. Berry had a real rough game, it may be time for him to come off the bench and put Simmons back in the starting lineup as Collins did to start the 2nd half. Greer was +15 in only 17:32 in a game we won by 6, he has come a real long way in his career.

Boo-Audige-Beran-Nance and...
Berry: -8 in 6:32
Greer: +8 in 4:44
Roper: +2 in 4:20
Simmons: -2 in 1:49

Not sure how a Audige-Simmons pairing would fare. Did that happen last game? If so, I don't remember it.

Berry is nice to slot alongside Audige as he can try to pick his spot to knock down a 3 on the off-chance that Chase decides to look to pass.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Simmons and Audige played less than 2 minutes together, to open the 2nd half with Nance, Beran and Buie.
That lineup was outscored 7-5.

Berry and Audige got beat 18-12 in about 10 minutes.

Audige's best stint was a 7-0 run early in the 2nd half with Young, Williams, Roper and Greer.

Its just one game - too soon to draw any conclusions.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Yes. The Performance rate is just the ratio of points scored to points allowed when each guy is on the floor.

I use the numbers to evaluate players generally and to evaluate combinations. Some would insist that I use them as a way to criticize Chris Collins use of his roster, but that is simply a byproduct of the data.

There is no way, based on the data, that Robbie Beran should be playing more than Ryan Young, for example. This year, it is crystal clear (so far) that we have played much better when Williams is at the 4 instead of Beran. (That fact surprises me because I thought Williams wouldn't do much).

I don't adjust for the players on the other team. Its just way too much work - you would have to go thru each of the box scores of each opponent! No thanks!

My philosophy is that basketball is a team game and good players help their team outscore their opponent. Team offense, Team defense. Intangibles. It is NOT "who would win a game of one on one?"

And yes, you have indicated an important insight - the "+/-" value of each player is highly influenced by the players with whom the coach teams him. A great example of that is how badly Boo Buie's stats last season were affected by the lineups that Collins "stuck him with." When you adjusted for that, it was clear that Buie, Young and Nance were our top 3 guys and actually "above average" players in the league.

Numbers for Nance and Roper look off. More points scored than allowed but <1 performance rating?

Simmons as well.

Puts into question the precision in your modelling.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Thanks for sharing. We’d have never guessed.

Wow, you're becoming more and more like Corbi. That's not a compliment.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Numbers for Nance and Roper look off. More points scored than allowed but <1 performance rating?

Simmons as well.

Puts into question the precision in your modelling.

The Performance Rating is an aggregate of all games so far vs Power 5.
The Pts Scored and Points Allowed are only for the game against Maryland.

 

[EvanstonCat]

The Performance Rating is an aggregate of all games so far vs Power 5.
The Pts Scored and Points Allowed are only for the game against Maryland.

Ah, misunderstood. Would be good to get the performance rating calculated for MD game to go side by side to more easily understand the discrepancy.

Yes, I like to nit.

Good work though.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Ah, misunderstood. Would be good to get the performance rating calculated for MD game to go side by side to more easily understand the discrepancy.

Yes, I like to nit.

Good work though.

I can add that column next time. Not going to use the numbers for New Jersey Tech though. Not a Power 5 team and some of our guys light it up against guys who can't guard them!

 

[NREPP Fraud]

Here's how the individuals performed in the context of the team, as used by the coach.

Player	To Date Performance Rating​	NU Pts Scored vs MD​	Pts Allowed vs MD​	Minutes vs MD​
Elyjah Williams	1.570​	22​	14​	12.3​
Ryan Greer	1.270​	36​	21​	17.5​
Ryan Young	1.185​	16​	13​	11.0​
Boo Buie	1.047​	56​	53​	33.6​
Chase Audige	1.021​	48​	47​	26.8​
Julian Roper	0.993​	21​	18​	13.8​
Pete Nance	0.986​	54​	47​	31.0​
Ty Berry	0.975​	19​	25​	19.2​
Casey Simmons	0.974​	21​	19​	15.9​
Robbie Beran	0.860​	42​	45​	25.2​

Coming into the Maryland game, our most successful two man combos had been Ryan Young with Elyjah Williams and, in the backcourt, Ryan Greer with Boo Buie.
In the Maryland game, Young was on the bench with foul problems, so the combo with Williams went 9-7 over 5.5 minutes of action. Overall they are 60-41 thru 4 games vs Power 5 competition.
Playing with Pete Nance, Williams "won" 13-7 over 7 minutes. That frontcourt combo is now up 34-19 in 19 minutes of gametime.
Buie and Greer succeeded again, going 25-13 over about 11 minutes. They were good in the first half and Collins paired them at the end of the game. Against Power 5 competition, they have gone 139-101 in 66 minutes of action.

Boo is better than Greer! Much quicker! Stats are misleading! Boo is better than Bmac any day of the week!

 

[NREPP Fraud]

Not sure how a Audige-Simmons pairing would fare. Did that happen last game? If so, I don't remember it.

Berry is nice to slot alongside Audige as he can try to pick his spot to knock down a 3 on the off-chance that Chase decides to look to pass.

Berry is beastly! Give him and Boo 28 minutes a game and Greer 12!

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Berry is beastly! Give him and Boo 28 minutes a game and Greer 12!

I will admit that I thought Berry was our 4th best player before the season started.
Greer and Buie are making a strong case to be the primary backcourt.
But is it very early in the season.