Stock Advice Thread

AustinTXCat

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Anyone here dabble in I-Bonds? Just reading about them briefly, and it seems like a good (albeit minuscule) way to get a little bit of savings during a high inflationary period. Sure beats a 0.5% interest rate in a HYSA.
Yes, purchased $5K last year. May purchase another $5K today. Have not checked on interest accrual in account yet.
 

AustinTXCat

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Are we in bear market territory yet? I've got cash sitting on the sidelines.

How about some ideas?

Good luck to everyone, by the way.
 

LineSkiCat14

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I've been eyeing some ETFs that started a little too high (VTI for example), and am basically just buying the dips. This is just in my brokerage account in hopes that in 10-20 years I got some play around money in it (and in the event the global economy is effed and I'm not working)... haven't done anything with my retirement accounts
 

lz

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Are we in bear market territory yet? I've got cash sitting on the sidelines.

How about some ideas?

Good luck to everyone, by the way.
Maybe Capitulation #1 coming, but keep under control, maybe raise more cash, hopefully 6-9 months to go? Nothing working long enough to brag about, Austin.
 

bluthruandthru

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I bought U, MU, ADBE, MELI this week and looking at MRNA and GOOG.

Those are all add-ons except for MRNA which I've wanted to start.

Things are getting cheaper. I'm still holding back some cash in case things get worse. (Which I'm sure they will)
 

jameslee32

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I bought U, MU, ADBE, MELI this week and looking at MRNA and GOOG.

Those are all add-ons except for MRNA which I've wanted to start.

Things are getting cheaper. I'm still holding back some cash in case things get worse. (Which I'm sure they will)
I was worried that I had too much cash in 2 accounts after a net selling spree for about a year and a half.
 

bluthruandthru

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I was worried that I had too much cash in 2 accounts after a net selling spree for about a year and a half.
I wish I had sold at least 1/4 of my positions back in Feb of '21. I saw my total investments graph in a straight line up. I said this is crazy. But damn if I didn't just sit tight. And now I've paid the price.
 

jameslee32

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I wish I had sold at least 1/4 of my positions back in Feb of '21. I saw my total investments graph in a straight line up. I said this is crazy. But damn if I didn't just sit tight. And now I've paid the price.
I've never had any luck timing the market when to get out and back in. The best results for me have been buying regularly and taking gains regularly. Not exactly dollar cost averaging in anything but my mutual funds but rather using limit orders at intervals higher and lower. A growth stock interval might be 25% whereas another stock might be only 10%. I only have 1 stock that I've never sold, AAPL.
 
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rbs

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I made some adjustments when the market opened and during the day when the S&P dipped down further toward 2850 or so and SPY dipped down to 385 … that’s a scary drop..

I am thinking/hoping today is a short-term low and we get a bump up for a ‘period’ of time … how long and how high is the unknown.

SPY has a couple of supply zones where sellers will kick in around 420 and also at 430, might be asking a lot to get thru that 420 area with sentiment being so negative …. would be nice to get back up at least to 420 or so before the market decides what it wants to do after that … we will see, nobody really knows what’s going to happen.
 
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jameslee32

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My wild prediction is because the futures are higher yet again, either the market rolls over and goes negative by hundreds by noon OR rallys 800 DOW points or more.

Or both.
 
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Get Buckets

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I wish I had sold at least 1/4 of my positions back in Feb of '21. I saw my total investments graph in a straight line up. I said this is crazy. But damn if I didn't just sit tight. And now I've paid the price.
No one can consistently time the market. Especially not a casual investor.
 

lz

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My wild prediction is because the futures are higher yet again, either the market rolls over and goes negative by hundreds by noon OR rallys 800 DOW points or more.

Or both.
Perilous time to jump in those waters, maybe nibble but it’s early, imo, at least want to get through mid term elections and see what happens with Covid over another winter. Maybe 2023 will bring us happy times. James is always cautious!
 

jameslee32

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Perilous time to jump in those waters, maybe nibble but it’s early, imo, at least want to get through mid term elections and see what happens with Covid over another winter. Maybe 2023 will bring us happy times. James is always cautious!
I have an appetite for risk assets, been burned and learned hard lessons. Trust me.

Glad to see a rally if nothing else than to help people rebalance or take those small bets on great businesses.
 
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Elbridge

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Anyone getting in on Amazon now that the stock has split and it has become affordable to buy? I am buying 100 shares today after the market opens and my other trade clears.
 

lz

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Anyone getting in on Amazon now that the stock has split and it has become affordable to buy? I am buying 100 shares today after the market opens and my other trade clears.
Long term you’re good, I’m not excited about retailers or much of anything while in this economic mess, but it, too, shall pass 1-2 years out…good lesson on investing patience that I got around 2000. Oil stocks no brainer buys for now, I still like ag related stocks, too.
 

jameslee32

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Bad news is no longer destroying stocks and the pattern of rallying after a morning selloff has emerged. Sure beats the alternative.
 

BlueRaider22

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Are we in bear market territory yet? I've got cash sitting on the sidelines.

How about some ideas?

Good luck to everyone, by the way.


I think you'll have until the mid-term elections to have plenty of buying opportunities. Around that time I think the Ukraine/Russia thing will have reached a certain point, Biden will have tried to buy votes by forgiving some school loans, and mid-term elections. Plus, I think we're currently in a recession......which most of them last just shy of a year. Soooooo, I think that come 2023 we'll see the economy start to really take off again.
 
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Rex Kwon Do

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*** preface with I have a great FA now who has done a great job and I have discussed this with him….just appreciate y’all’s insights ***

Just curious at this threads’ take on the impending recession etc and what types of positions to be in….my home is paid off, owe several hundy on the purchase of my business, and have a couple hundy in non retirement equities and cash.

FA offered me a buy in of Blackstone REIT at a minimum of $50K and can only get in/out once a month. Target return is 4-5%….says it’s a good hedge and worth having in my portfolio as BR is continuously buying up real estate….and I have no stomach for direct real estate investing.

Trying to stay ahead of the current inflation and what I perceive to be a pretty crazy recession in front of us.

What are your thoughts from my position and/or what are you guys doing? Sorry if this has been discussed, I haven’t read back through the thread.
 

jameslee32

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*** preface with I have a great FA now who has done a great job and I have discussed this with him….just appreciate y’all’s insights ***

Just curious at this threads’ take on the impending recession etc and what types of positions to be in….my home is paid off, owe several hundy on the purchase of my business, and have a couple hundy in non retirement equities and cash.

FA offered me a buy in of Blackstone REIT at a minimum of $50K and can only get in/out once a month. Target return is 4-5%….says it’s a good hedge and worth having in my portfolio as BR is continuously buying up real estate….and I have no stomach for direct real estate investing.

Trying to stay ahead of the current inflation and what I perceive to be a pretty crazy recession in front of us.

What are your thoughts from my position and/or what are you guys doing? Sorry if this has been discussed, I haven’t read back through the thread.
1. Separate your personal debt from your business debt.
2. Pay down the debt of both.
3. Stay or get cash flow positive in both.
4. Lots of REITs out there are a lot more liquid than what you're being sold.
5. I see nothing wrong with owning the BX common stock in this cycle under $120 and a 3.84% yield. If you achieve just the average analyst estimate of $148, you're looking at a 24% gain.
6. Inch in to your investments.
7. Diversify.
8. Just my .02 cents
 
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Rex Kwon Do

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Do you consider the business purchase business debt or personal debt? I would think it is personal, I bought my business from my Mom after my Dad passed away…it’s my name on the note.

I know that’s kind of an oddball question.
 

lz

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1. Separate your personal debt from your business debt.
2. Pay down the debt of both.
3. Stay or get cash flow positive in both.
4. Lots of REITs out there are a lot more liquid than what you're being sold.
5. I see nothing wrong with owning the BX common stock in this cycle under $120 and a 3.84% yield. If you achieve just the average analyst estimate of $148, you're looking at a 24% gain.
6. Inch in to your investments.
7. Diversify.
8. Just my .02 cents
James always gives good investing advice here. The only thing I might add is do you have an interest rate on the business loan that is less than your 4-5% return?
 
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lz

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Do you consider the business purchase business debt or personal debt? I would think it is personal, I bought my business from my Mom after my Dad passed away…it’s my name on the note.

I know that’s kind of an oddball question.
I don’t know your tax situation, but you probably should show it as a business loan for deductibility, plus it likely is considered business if you’re paying your mom a fair interest rate (in the eyes of the IRS). You probably should have and use a good accountant if you own a business anyway.
 
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jameslee32

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I wouldn't focus on things out of my control as well. Instead of recession fear, think growth, profitability and a clean balance sheet. Although I've never owned a successful business, I think this way in companies I invest in. Those businesses that have none of these things don't deserve your time and money. Even if you're outright gambling, don't bet more money than you're willing to lose.
 

AustinTXCat

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Went shopping today.

76 shares WBD at 14.01. Already owned 24 shares via T spinoff.

Need income to replace HY fund. Purchased:

100 ACV at 19.07
100 AVK at 13.04
100 MPW at 15.08

Stay tuned.
 
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lz

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I was bemoaning my oil and gas stocks Friday, stumbled on some coal stocks of companies east of the Miss River, and was astounded how well they’ve done-I bought several shares of ARCH & METC, then read an article last night about some European countries planning to switch more to coal and LNG. This morning I added ARLP & AMR. Check the 1-3 year performance of those 4 stocks.
 
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lz

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Those coal stocks are very volatile, Morgan Stanley downgraded a bunch of commodities, though it seems foolish to me they included food, ag and energy related items with construction/industrial use types like copper, aluminum, etc.

• Commodity collapse: falling prices on corn, soy, copper, lumber. Morgan Stanley says much more to come zinc, aluminum, nickel, iron, copper, coal.
 

Beatle Bum

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I was bemoaning my oil and gas stocks Friday, stumbled on some coal stocks of companies east of the Miss River, and was astounded how well they’ve done-I bought several shares of ARCH & METC, then read an article last night about some European countries planning to switch more to coal and LNG. This morning I added ARLP & AMR. Check the 1-3 year performance of those 4 stocks.
Do you think that the European decisions are a short term fix and we will see them follow France’s lead in more nukes?
 

jameslee32

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Those coal stocks are very volatile, Morgan Stanley downgraded a bunch of commodities, though it seems foolish to me they included food, ag and energy related items with construction/industrial use types like copper, aluminum, etc.

• Commodity collapse: falling prices on corn, soy, copper, lumber. Morgan Stanley says much more to come zinc, aluminum, nickel, iron, copper, coal.
It's possible we get a commodity bounce once China fully opens. The problem with that is it could be short lived as their homegrown vaccines are no match for Covid.
 
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lz

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I’ve somewhat tried to fight Mr Market, can’t win when downswings make little sense, I need to patiently just wait until these interest increases near their end before buying or selling.
 

jameslee32

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I’ve somewhat tried to fight Mr Market, can’t win when downswings make little sense, I need to patiently just wait until these interest increases near their end before buying or selling.
I wish you luck as always.
 
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rbs

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Those coal stocks are very volatile, Morgan Stanley downgraded a bunch of commodities, though it seems foolish to me they included food, ag and energy related items with construction/industrial use types like copper, aluminum, etc.

• Commodity collapse: falling prices on corn, soy, copper, lumber. Morgan Stanley says much more to come zinc, aluminum, nickel, iron, copper, coal.
The market (manipulation) is doing everything it can to try and lower inflation ... steel getting hit hard along with others ... lot of manipulation.
 
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lz

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The market (manipulation) is doing everything it can to try and lower inflation ... steel getting hit hard along with others ... lot of manipulation.
Sounds like staying patient should work out for me (sometime?).
 
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UKWoodford

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Been in the market 100% since the planes hit the buildings in 2001 and the market crashed. Picked up solid dividend stocks at bargain basement prices and never looked back.
 

lz

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Been in the market 100% since the planes hit the buildings in 2001 and the market crashed. Picked up solid dividend stocks at bargain basement prices and never looked back.
Still been holding those same stocks or shuffle things some?
 

UKWoodford

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Still been holding those same stocks or shuffle things some?
Small amount of shuffling, but definitely had to watch closely so as not to get burned. I held AT&T for 7 years worth of dividends and got out just above my purchase price. As soon as they "froze" the dividend instead of continuing to raise it, I knew a cut was probably coming. It did (50%). It's not a bad buy right now but I don't trust Stankey as he might eliminate it with all that debt.
 
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