Stock Advice Thread
- Thread starter dgtatu01
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The cost basis is what I paid for the stock. When the price increases a significant amount, let's say 50%, I could start selling some of the stock to recover the money I invested. When a stock price doubles, I have the opportunity to sell enough to recover my initial investment and let the other 50% go higher, lower or sell it as well. If you get to that point and hang on to the rest, it's called "playing with the houses money". A good outcome no doubt.
You’re taking money out of the market in the form of taxes you will never recover, correct?
No, I'm selling a stock in the form of cash dollars and later paying the long term capital gains rate on the gain if I've held the stock longer than a year. This is the best case scenario but I'm never afraid of the tax man if I have a winner on my hands. Especially if I have a loss to report as well.
Yeah true plus nefarious accounting is not my strong suit.
I hold a minor in business administration. Had fun with both accounting classes (financial and managerial) back in the day. Worked on an MBA until my last employer proposed an offer and I changed majors. They paid for my grad minor in InfoSec. Took 2 additional undergrad investment courses ("Investments" and "Foundations of Finance") relatively later in life.
Aside from the basics, one must also examine cash flows. My major problem is that I'm so conservative, and therefore so risk averse. I see low P/Es and forget trends. Perhaps my big bets on GIS are misguided. But my plan is dollar cost averaging will hopefully mitigate gut feelings.
Seems to me GIS has been a solid winner over time and the rotation into growth stocks can't last forever. But diversification is also your friend as my 2 year engineering degree tells me it is. Ultimately I'm here to learn too.
It’s hard to be a pure value investor these days with the S&P so heavily weighted to tech, back when Peter Lynch was The Guru of stock picking, many of us beginners tried to imitate him. Sadly perhaps, I blend various styles as I’ve entered my 70s, just can’t stop enjoying some growth, but my wife and I have no kids, so I can take some risk. A couple of you mentioned CSCO, think you are the ones causing my wife’s ANET to go down, read that CSCO’s taking market share from competitors.:weary: I was a holder of STZ, better company than stock currently but nice choice long term, really hasn’t moved much the past year, LT debt to equity ratio already high before making the recent cannabis company buy, supposedly at too high a price, so I sold and gambled a bit on TLRY, started buying 8/20/18 at $33.52, accumulating 300 sh at $40, sold 150 shares today when it crossed $80, so I can play with house money on the remaining 150 sh...haven’t been that lucky that fast since the dotcom days!
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I keep reading that a recession is inevitable, with many thinking sometime in the next 12-18 months. I've asked a few friends what they plan to do with their retirements and longer term investments. Some are starting to move money out little by little into bonds and safer investments, where as some are just going to take their lumps and be ready for when it bottoms out.
Assuming you aren't 65+, what's everyone's play if a recession is really on the horizon?
Assuming you aren't 65+, what's everyone's play if a recession is really on the horizon?
I feel like Weed will be the next dot.com frenzy...
Great opportunity to make some money, a gold rush, bubble, crash, disappearing of a lot of riff raff companies/stocks, then eventually some real steady winners will appear and the industry will settle in.
Question is who's who in the marijuana race right now? Who's going to be the FANG type of companies? Who's going to be poo.com, make a lot of money overnight, maybe make a few doofus founders into billionaires, but not make the long term cut?
Great opportunity to make some money, a gold rush, bubble, crash, disappearing of a lot of riff raff companies/stocks, then eventually some real steady winners will appear and the industry will settle in.
Question is who's who in the marijuana race right now? Who's going to be the FANG type of companies? Who's going to be poo.com, make a lot of money overnight, maybe make a few doofus founders into billionaires, but not make the long term cut?
EVOP is doing great for me since I brought it up!
Love it.
Love it.
I'll probably just increase my cash position. I don't expect much out of bonds and currently sit at just 8% in an IRA.
You seem hell bent on trying to time the market. At your age just keep buying all the time.
Marlboro or Pfizer will win the race. It's a lot more subtle than the smoking products though. The real money is in generating a frenzy in the medical space.
It's kinda stupid, because everyone made fun of stoners for years. now everyone wants to jump on the weedwagon.
Weed stocks getting crushed today, there will be opportunities to buy, but nobody likely can tell us at what prices. Losing money on my remaining TLRY today, but would love for it to drop considerably more. I believe it will keep bouncing back at least until another big liquor company buys one of the top three or four Canadian public weed companies.
Honestly, I probably won't do anything. More curious. The stuff I want to do with my money is minute:
1. Manage my Fidelity 401k on my own, to minimize fees.
2. Move savings into an online bank with a decent rate around 1.7 to 2.0%
3. Take some recently acquired money and open a Schwab account. Buy some stocks of companies I work with. Only a few hundred which I'm prepared to lose, but I just want to see the entire process and get in the habit of watching individual stocks.
FWIW, I see articles from all over the place about moving investments during a time of uncertainty. I get that it's "timing" and I'm probably not ready to make the call.. but it seems to be a big talking point. It seems to me that it's just taking a conservative approach and adjusting your ratios.
TLRY down more than 10% earlier, my stock pick, but it’s been the latest and greatest, so nothing surprising.
Sounds like a decent, out of the rat race approach in an extended bull, good thinking about buying in companies you have knowledge. I had a patient pal who dived in during his 50s with lots of cash when the market was way down, doubled his money and never has made another move as he’s now early 70s. Different strokes...my brother in law realizes he’s too impatient in the stock market, had the cash to buy 11 nice properties in Fl when the real estate crash occurred early 2000s, hired a rental company to handle them, makes a nice income in his retired mid 60s, can sell them whenever.
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I have about 10% in a cash position with my IRA, my advisor said to keep it there for now. I drip a little, not alot, into a few dividend paying stocks. I max out my company 401k, so I've been putting my extra cash to pay off my house figuring I'll at least save that interest and set myself up for no house payment. Once that's done, I'm not sure what I'll do, maybe an alternate investment if I can find something. I have one rent house and don't want another one.
That’s why I waited for a company to emerge as a clear leader. I don’t mind a little risk from my play monies but not that much. Right now my CGC stock is up ~40%.
Not a bad idea now that it’s gotten much tougher to itemize expenses on your tax return. After maxing out our 401K contributions where we could only select mutual funds, I slowly accumulated money in a taxable account for trading individual stocks, then unfortunately, got a late start on Roth IRAs. In retirement we got by about five years on withdrawing those monies (cap gain taxes only), my taxable pension, then SS at 62, before touching the regular IRAs to avoid paying taxes on it as long as possible.
Honestly, I'd start a "Personal Finance" thread if I knew it be worth while.. But I figure this topic can be used for both for now.
My biggest hurdle is just learning the lingo for now. If I don't know what the word means google it until it sticks and makes sense. Furtures, shorting etc.
I've seen cash "position" used a few times now. had to read up, but still confused as to what 10% cash position" entails. Does that mean you invested 10% of your IRA into a Money Market Account?
My biggest hurdle is just learning the lingo for now. If I don't know what the word means google it until it sticks and makes sense. Furtures, shorting etc.
I've seen cash "position" used a few times now. had to read up, but still confused as to what 10% cash position" entails. Does that mean you invested 10% of your IRA into a Money Market Account?
Pretty much, although I wouldn't say "invested", it's just sitting in a money market account within the portfolio. If I decided to use it today, it's liquid enough that I could buy right away since it's just cash. I wouldn't have to sell it, then take the proceeds to buy a fund, etf, etc.
Btw, I could definitely do a personal finance thread, it's one of my favorite topics and different than investing. I'm a hawk when it comes to our finances, although it's a delicate balance in cutting/managing costs and not going overboard to piss off the wife.
I wouldn’t worry too much about options and shorts, don’t over complicate, just get your basics down, sounded like you already have some knowledge. I like the obvious first, est sales growth, eps growth for a couple of years, then things like gross margin % change compared with the same period a year previously, long term debt to stockholders’ equity ratio, comparative PE for industry, etc.
Exactly, and I don’t worry too much about the % holding unless I’ve set myself a goal (going into the elections, much higher for me than normal, about 50%, but again, I’m retired). Get through 2018 and I may be back to 75%+ by early 2019, at least throogh April or so.
Oh, I was talking more about Positions. It's really just seeing what's out there. What's this mean? How does this work? I find it pretty interesting, actually.
Reading this book now. But honestly, not much of a fan so far. Isn't telling me much I don't know, and the guy is kind of pretentious in his writing.
Positions? I’m not exactly sure what you are saying. I own stocks in several sectors, try to stay somewhat current with robotics picks, cloud picks, medical, petcare, etc. The Wealthy Barber a pretty neat book to read and own.Oh, I was talking more about Positions. It's really just seeing what's out there. What's this mean? How does this work? I find it pretty interesting, actually.
Reading this book now. But honestly, not much of a fan so far. Isn't telling me much I don't know, and the guy is kind of pretentious in his writing.
This will absolutely happen. I was already regretting not buying more after my wife urged me too. Haven’t even bothered telling her I could be up more or that I’m up at all.
One of the very few times she “allowed” me to spend and I didn’t.
Sold 1/3 of RDN this week in my IRA. Nice 45% gain but maybe too great of a risk in a rising interest rate environment. Over 10% cash now in that account. So ready for more tariff pain and buys down the road.
TLRY has had another fine week, a few dollars per share away from a 3 bagger in 3 weeks, would be too hot for me to handle if I hadn’t sold off half after last week’s 2 bagger...guess it could volatilely run up some more at least until medicinal sales are allowed in Canada in mid October, probably takes a rest, then who knows?