Suckers bet. I would never trade or invest on borrowed money of any kind.
Stock Advice Thread
- Thread starter dgtatu01
- Start date
Glad you’re back! Looked at TTD as my niece’s first full time job just out of college is selling digital advertising...just got her business card and have high hopes for her. TTD blew out eps today, certainly one to watch, I’ll look at your others. Recently, I’ve nibbled into two small cannabis stocks, IIPR & OGRMF, added to CRM, CGC, IRBT, PYPL, REMX, bought AMED and STNE, reduced AMZN, GOOGL, BRK.B, WDAY and dumped JAZZ.
Since we’re living off our rolled over 401Ks, pensions and SS in retirement, I can’t endorse it, nor would 99% of articles I’ve read, but a personal decision.
Sold 1/2 of it, he and Munger in a slump with KHC, AAPL, IBM, etc. They’ll get it right long term, but I wanted to deploy some money elsewhere for a few months at least.
Just read a headline that he lost $4 billion today just from his KHC investment. Wonder which pot stock he buys first?? Haha
IIPR had a great day! Except for the week before Christmas and Valentines Day, it just won't quit making it tough for me to get in. Great choice! Kudos!
Think I'll wait until St. Paddy's day.
99% of people who write articles and give financial advice can't take 5 figures and turn it into 7 figures in 5 years.
There are those who teach and sell advice, and there are those who take risk and do things others can only dream about.
Each man has to decide for himself and tune out the noise.
Ever known a successful business that used leverage to start out, grow, etc.? Sure you do. Lots of business failures and then there's the small % who didn't listen to the folks who said "it can't be done" and made it happen. I know many of folk who started with 5 figures scratched for, borrowed (including knocking on doors after friends and family had been exhausted) and turned a business idea into 7 figures, 8 figures, even 9.
I go back to the question about being young enough to lose it all and have the rest of your life to recoup it all. That's not me so it's not something I can do. I have 3-10 years left to work full time. But it does surprise me all these years later that I would risk 5 figures in a cloud company yet speculation is also a part of investing. Probably depends on where the money comes from and what percentage of your assets is in jeopardy. As far as borrowing how many of those borrowers had margin calls on money they borrowed from their 401k? Idk how it works or care to know but I've also had friends who've taken it all out, paid the taxes and started over in middle age. It is very subjective. No question.
I obviously like IIPR and PYPL; CRM's a winner; OGRMF I know folks who like it a lo;, IRBT rings a bell, but I can't place it; I think I need to look at STNE because that doesn't ring a bell at all and I know you uncover gems, and while I traded CGC and don't have any more shares at this moment, I did just pick-up a few call options this afternoon for trading purposes. I need to study CGC's chart in-depth over the weekend and make a decision on whether the "when" is within sight. I know when I studied it a few weeks back, I could see a run to $60 in the not-so-distant future, with an $80 target being possible.
Today was one of those days......I went into the day having recently picked up call options on TTD on the day it sold down to under $150; call options on DATA that I picked-up when folks overreacted and sold it down to under $120; and then Swing trade call options on the following names in which I do not own shares over in my "investment" account: AMRN, IQ, INSY, HUYA, CSIQ; then there's the line I took on W and ZG back on Jan. 9th........
TTD, ZG, W all up around 25% - 30% today.
One thing I did do today that was fun: I actually sold and converted to cash 75% or more of all of those option plays mentioned (plus the extra shares I added this week in TTD). Now I get to spend all weekend researching and studying to find the next batch of swing plays. Nothing on margin, although I did have to use margin to throw out that line on TTD the other day when the Stiffel analyst came out with that downgrade. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: Do you wonder how much he got paid-off?
If there are any haters out there, or even the folks who know that things don't go up every day and pull backs are a normal occurrence......don't worry, I took out insurance (UVXY calls and SQQQ calls) and I don't hesitate to go short or swing with puts when the tape suggests. I have the scars and battle wounds from days gone by. [cheers]
I feel like a kid in a candy store. Gotta enjoy it while one can. Vamos muchachos!
Certainly agree with you.....it is not for most folks and you are absolutely right, there are so many variables that go into making a risk assessment. My point is, and you allude to it, one size does not fit all. What's right for Krazy is not necessarily right for the next 99 out of 100 guys. Also, many folks don't know the difference between taking risk and calculated risk.
Some walk to the beat of a different drum, and it's not always wrong.
I have posted what I bought over in my investment account, which are shares, and I think I did so mostly on the days I bought them. I rarely ever post on here my option trading as: 1) I'd never get any trading done; and 2) I don't believe most folks here have an interest in swing trading with options.
Here are the symbols I started buying on Jan 9th in my non-trading account, and I'm fairly certain I posted it back then:
MU, W, ZG, MYGN, DLR, CGC. So started out with those 6 on Jan. 9th with partial positions ( I believe in scaling-in an investment position).
Then soon after I started adding the following, which I'm pretty sure I also shared here: AMD, STM, CRNT, then ZS, TTD, XLNX, SPLK, TWLO, KEYS, VEEV, AYX, PYPL
TTD is an impressive looking chart in what appears to be secular grower. W is probably in a similar boat. ZG's gain appears on the surface to be event driven and those in the know would want to think that a CEO resignation was certainly possible in a bad housing market. Nicely done!
Don't think that I shared that I ended-up adding one other name in the "investment" account, as it was after the initial January setting things up: TSM
One I believe I mentioned when I bought it, but failed to list in the previous post: SHOP
Oh, I am out of CGC in my investment account. I did post when I sold the majority of the shares, but I don't think I posted the last bit, which was a little before the ER when the shorts were piling on and the skittish started selling. I did pick up a small amount of CGC trading call options this afternoon, but I really need to study the technicals over the weekend before I commit any size again yet. I will do so, just don't know the when at the moment, but can certainly post it when I do if you'd like.
All the companies in my "investment" account, I have studied the fundamentals and have set-up a file to collect info, etc. For example, when you mention ZG's CEO resignation, you may or may not know that he is one of the 3 original founders who have all still been on the Board and active since inception. One of the 3, who was CEO previously during the initial years before going public, etc., is now stepping back into those shoes while the other becomes just an active board member again.
Also, I believe that I posted awhile back that ZG, MYGN and DLR from my original Jan. 9th group of 6 were lagging and that I was going to reduce the size of each position. I did do that, lightened up and guess what----I outsmarted myself. :smiley:
IRBT is the best vacuum robot company and recently announced they will sell a robotic lawn mower...can bet it will be better than the competitors. The stock’s price zoomed a bit too fast, leveled off recently, I’m holding.
Ah yes, I remember it came across a trading resource news flash and the exact same day someone here (if I recall correctly) made a comment about the company and even posted a link to some news on it. I never followed-up on the company, but that's why it rang a bell.
One needs a photographic memory, or an assistant to keep track of all the amazing companies and what they are doing these days.
STNE a Brazilian tech payments company that Buffet has been buying the last two quarters, wanted something else besides PYPL...stupidly sold my V just as it went up much more.
I want to make clear, and while I know from interacting with a few here that they know the difference, the names I mentioned above as strictly option trades, i.e., I don't also own shares, I have not researched their fundamentals, and only initiated swing trades based on the the stock's chart.
In other words, do your own due diligence and remember that I don't know much, or even anything, about the fundamentals for the likes of CSIR, IQ, AMRN, INSY, HUYA, etc.
If you look at what I have purchased shares of, then yes, I know the story behind those companies.
lz, jameslee, blueraider, you three I've gotten a feel for through exchanging posts since early January. You may or may not recall that I mentioned that 1/2 my investment account became all cash last year from the all-cash buyout of a privately-owned company. What I never mentioned is that I still have the other 1/2 in one publicly traded company; although I did mention the company once when I said I was going to buy a few speculative pre-earnings report options (which are in the red by-the-way, even though ER was stellar).
What I'd like to do is share it here without saying anything else, and if any or all 3 of you are willing, tell me what you think after kicking the tire so to speak.
I'd like to solicit some unbiased feedback, plus, if it goes up 50% one week, I don't want anyone to say: gee, thanks for not sharing, or sure you owned that one after the fact, buddy.
Game?
What I'd like to do is share it here without saying anything else, and if any or all 3 of you are willing, tell me what you think after kicking the tire so to speak.
I'd like to solicit some unbiased feedback, plus, if it goes up 50% one week, I don't want anyone to say: gee, thanks for not sharing, or sure you owned that one after the fact, buddy.
Game?
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BlueRaider, a pet peeve of mine is not answering a question directly, and I may have responded without giving a direct answer.
If I had high balance, high interest rate credit card debt, combined with being in a down or choppy market, combined with somewhat limited investment choices within an employer-sponsored 401(k), then yes, I would absolutely consider doing it.
School loan, well my school loan, which I paid off over 120 monthly payments, had a very low fixed interest rate, so no to that one.
Again, I don't do the cookie-cutter, one size fits all financial advice stuff. Take each unique set of variables and run an unbiased, lack of prejudice thought process. There are times and a set of variables where I would pay down or off high balance, high interest rate credit card debt via a loan from my 401(k). Does one's 401(k) beat 29% being invested in mutual funds during a down cycle? I think not......
Folks can call me an idiot for the way I think....at least I think. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
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You don't need to share anything afaic but I appreciate the insight nonetheless. All I can tell you is I will look at the chart and maybe a few other metrics. I likely won't be buying anything myself right now and rather selling in to strength but it depends on the opportunity of course. Normally I think 50% of anything is too much risk in a single name.
Thanks for the reply. Of course it's too much risk in a single name....for 98% of the folks out there, but also keep in mind it's 50% of one investment portfolio, not one's net worth.
You said something that gives me pause, and I want to double-check to clarify just in case. You said, "I likely won't be buying anything myself...". I want to inquire, did I come across as selling something? If I came across as some anonymous internet poster here to pump a stock or try to drum-up others to buy something, then I prefer not to proceed any further. I don't want to be associated with those types of charlatans.
Shoot it straight...is that how you took my post, or did I mis-read the "I likely won't be buying anything myself" part?
I want to clarify....I am solely looking for unbiased feedback. Why? I'm obviously not unbiased. Disclosure: I did share the chart with a few traders who trade technicals only, they all came back with something negative to say. They did not bother to consider anything other than the stock's chart. Here's the dig....I look at the chart and come up with a read quite differently than each one of them did. They were all ho-hum, looks like it's a loser, etc.
Of course...I didn't bother to point out the errors and what they overlooked or completely are ignorant of from the chart. Better to keep my mouth shut, than to look the fool. :smiley:
Of course...I didn't bother to point out the errors and what they overlooked or completely are ignorant of from the chart. Better to keep my mouth shut, than to look the fool. :smiley:
I didn't take it that way at all. It's about me. I have less than 10% cash in all my investment accounts so I'm as close to fully invested as I want to be in these accounts. Started buying early in the correction in October. I primarily use this thread for education and shared experiences.
I’ve always loved everyone’s input on this thread. My functional knowledge of investing has grown by leaps because of this single thread. And obviously nobody can keep their pulse on everything going on in the world so it’s great to have others thoughts.
You nailed it, Blue, glean all the knowledge you can get about any interests, including investing, and it doesn’t matter what age a person is, IMHO.
I’m not much of a chartist, but looks like a possible breakout point, and I think it was somewhat influenced by last week’s revelation that Buffet had added to his STNE position at BRK.B.
I meant what do you get literally, i.e., 1) do you see a chart for STNE; and 2) are you logged into my account where you can see my other charts and my account info, etc.? I'm asking you for privacy concerns as to whether I need to delete or not. If all you get is the one STNE chart and are not logged into my account, then I'm good to go and will offer my take on the chart and what I am going to do with it on Monday.
Hey Bucket and lz, thanks for confirming no personal account info you two---much appreciated.
lz, I hope you don't mind, but I'd like to use the STNE Chart to demonstrate to others one of the many set-ups I look for when seeking and deciding whether to Swing Trade a stock relying on its Chart only.
1. I notice from chart it's a recent IPO, which doesn't stop me, but tells me among other things 1) there could be better than average volatility; 2) the resistance and support areas aren't as severe/strong. Seeing such, I tell myself that I will not commit more than 2% of my swing trading portfolio should I decide to initiate a swing trade.
2. Next, I notice that the stock shows a nice trend reversal candlestick on Dec. 24th, which we now know to be as the day of the overall markets reversal as well, i.e., we are now in an uptrend that came off the same bottom as the general indices.
3. Next I notice a platform range consolidation and I draw two red parallel horizontal lines to indicate such: bottom red line at around 20.78 and top red line at around 23.60.
4. Next I notice that this past Wed., the 20th, the price broke out from the platform above 23.60, and then I look down at the green volume bar to see that it did so on increased volume. I drew a downward red arrow at the bottom of the candlestick for the 20th to show the move upward out of the platform, and then another red arrow pointing down at the green volume bar for that day to show that it was the highest amount of volume on any day for the past couple of months. Volume is a key indicator in which I place a major emphasis.
5. I then look to see that the A/D line and the OBV indicators show a new upward swing that led Wed.'s move by a day and a half. Which is confirmed by the MACD crossover.
6. You then see where I have drawn an upward red arrow pointing to where the 8-day moving average crosses over the 13-day moving average last week, Wed - Thur. Such a crossover is a set-up signal to initiate a swing trade.
7. I then draw 3 more horizontal lines showing where there should be resistance; the top two horizontal red lines are now my targets for this stock, i.e, $29 and then $32.
7. Based on reviewing the chart, had I been actively following STNE for a swing trade opportunity, the buy/initiate signal for a Swing Trade would have resulted in opening the trade on Wed - Thur somewhere between/within the 24 - 25 a share price range, with a target range of 29 and then on to 32.
8. The stock closed at 26.26 and I'm late; if I initiate on Monday or Tuesday, do I wait to see if there is a pull back down below that resistance line at 26.02 that it just crossed on Friday, maybe even a nice pullback back closer to 25, i.e., it takes a day or two breather? Do I go full blast knowing that I missed $1-2 of the move? Do I say yes I missed the first part of the move, but at least I have my confirmation, so I should initiate a 1/2 Swing Trade position and let the subsequent action dictate whether I complete now or not?
9. If I am going to Swing this stock, because I Swing Trade with Options, I need to verify that 1) there are options available; 2) that there is some degree of liquidity in the options; 3) that I can get a favorable Delta given the Implied Volatility at strike prices within where I see the stock moving to within the next 3 - 6 weeks.
Stay tuned, as I need to go check the Stock's option chain and determine whether it meets my reward vs risk requirement.
In the interim, if any of you here want to chime in, ask questions, point out what you see, etc., please feel free to do so.....actually I encourage it.
lz, I hope you don't mind, but I'd like to use the STNE Chart to demonstrate to others one of the many set-ups I look for when seeking and deciding whether to Swing Trade a stock relying on its Chart only.
1. I notice from chart it's a recent IPO, which doesn't stop me, but tells me among other things 1) there could be better than average volatility; 2) the resistance and support areas aren't as severe/strong. Seeing such, I tell myself that I will not commit more than 2% of my swing trading portfolio should I decide to initiate a swing trade.
2. Next, I notice that the stock shows a nice trend reversal candlestick on Dec. 24th, which we now know to be as the day of the overall markets reversal as well, i.e., we are now in an uptrend that came off the same bottom as the general indices.
3. Next I notice a platform range consolidation and I draw two red parallel horizontal lines to indicate such: bottom red line at around 20.78 and top red line at around 23.60.
4. Next I notice that this past Wed., the 20th, the price broke out from the platform above 23.60, and then I look down at the green volume bar to see that it did so on increased volume. I drew a downward red arrow at the bottom of the candlestick for the 20th to show the move upward out of the platform, and then another red arrow pointing down at the green volume bar for that day to show that it was the highest amount of volume on any day for the past couple of months. Volume is a key indicator in which I place a major emphasis.
5. I then look to see that the A/D line and the OBV indicators show a new upward swing that led Wed.'s move by a day and a half. Which is confirmed by the MACD crossover.
6. You then see where I have drawn an upward red arrow pointing to where the 8-day moving average crosses over the 13-day moving average last week, Wed - Thur. Such a crossover is a set-up signal to initiate a swing trade.
7. I then draw 3 more horizontal lines showing where there should be resistance; the top two horizontal red lines are now my targets for this stock, i.e, $29 and then $32.
7. Based on reviewing the chart, had I been actively following STNE for a swing trade opportunity, the buy/initiate signal for a Swing Trade would have resulted in opening the trade on Wed - Thur somewhere between/within the 24 - 25 a share price range, with a target range of 29 and then on to 32.
8. The stock closed at 26.26 and I'm late; if I initiate on Monday or Tuesday, do I wait to see if there is a pull back down below that resistance line at 26.02 that it just crossed on Friday, maybe even a nice pullback back closer to 25, i.e., it takes a day or two breather? Do I go full blast knowing that I missed $1-2 of the move? Do I say yes I missed the first part of the move, but at least I have my confirmation, so I should initiate a 1/2 Swing Trade position and let the subsequent action dictate whether I complete now or not?
9. If I am going to Swing this stock, because I Swing Trade with Options, I need to verify that 1) there are options available; 2) that there is some degree of liquidity in the options; 3) that I can get a favorable Delta given the Implied Volatility at strike prices within where I see the stock moving to within the next 3 - 6 weeks.
Stay tuned, as I need to go check the Stock's option chain and determine whether it meets my reward vs risk requirement.
In the interim, if any of you here want to chime in, ask questions, point out what you see, etc., please feel free to do so.....actually I encourage it.
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Impressive, Dayton, did you ever mix teaching among your pursuits? You could have.