Team sheets used by NCAA selection committee

[UKErik]

These numbers were put together before the start of conference tournament action this week. By bad losses, I mean a loss to a team that won't be in the NCAA tournament. Teams are listed in order of RPI ranking

1. UK...11-0 Top 50...20-0 Top 100...no bad losses
2. KU...11-6 Top 50...17-7 Top 100...Kansas State
3. VIL...11-1 Top 50...15-2 Top 100...Seton Hall
4. UW...8-2 Top 50...16-2 Top 100...Rutgers
5. DU...10-2 Top 50...16-3 Top 100...maybe Miami
6. VIR...8-2 Top 50, 13-2 Top 100...no bad losses
7. ARZ..6-0 Top 50...15-1 Top 100...UNLV, Oregon State, Arizona State

I didn't include the Zags because they seem to have zero shot at a top seed. Their schedule only features games against seven top 50 opponents (and three of those are BYU)...only 11 vs. top 100 opponents. Their best win is SMU. I think they're last among the two seeds no matter how the weekend plays out.

So based on that info, you have to figure Arizona has the longest road to travel for a top seed. Only six games vs. top 50 teams. Three poor losses.

Virginia has the fewest number of games vs. top 100 teams. Their star is injured. They've lost two out of their last three games.

Villanova has played (according to RPI numbers) a surprisingly difficult schedule...the best win % against top 50 opponents (outside of Kentucky of course).

So based on all of that, if Villanova, Wisconsin, and Kansas win out, the most likely scenario seems to be;

Midwest Regional
1. Kentucky
2. Gonzaga

East Regional
1. Villanova
2. Duke

South Regional
1. Virginia
2. Kansas (closer to Houston than Cleveland)

West Regional
1. Wisconsin
2. Arizona

I give Virginia the nod over Duke because they won the ACC regular season title and Duke didn't win any titles, but I could see the committee flipping them based on the Anderson injury.

GBB!!!

Team sheets

 

[bvmcmanus]

How are you getting either Duke or UVA from going to Cleveland as a 2? It is closer to both campus than Syracuse.

 

[UKErik]

EDIT
This post was edited on 3/14 1:19 AM by UKErik

 

[UKErik]

I think the distance is so close that it won't matter.

GBB!!!

 

[BourbonBalz]

Originally posted by UKErik:
These numbers were put together before the start of conference tournament action this week. By bad losses, I mean a loss to a team that won't be in the NCAA tournament. Teams are listed in order of RPI ranking

1. UK...11-0 Top 50...20-0 Top 100...no bad losses
2. KU...11-6 Top 50...17-7 Top 100...Kansas State
3. VIL...11-1 Top 50...15-2 Top 100...Seton Hall
4. UW...8-2 Top 50...16-2 Top 100...Rutgers
5. DU...10-2 Top 50...16-3 Top 100...maybe Miami
6. VIR...8-2 Top 50, 13-2 Top 100...no bad losses
7. ARZ..6-0 Top 50...15-1 Top 100...UNLV, Oregon State, Arizona State

I didn't include the Zags because they seem to have zero shot at a top seed. Their schedule only features games against seven top 50 opponents (and three of those are BYU)...only 11 vs. top 100 opponents. Their best win is SMU. I think they're last among the two seeds no matter how the weekend plays out.

So based on that info, you have to figure Arizona has the longest road to travel for a top seed. Only six games vs. top 50 teams. Three poor losses.

Virginia has the fewest number of games vs. top 100 teams. Their star is injured. They've lost two out of their last three games.

Villanova has played (according to RPI numbers) a surprisingly difficult schedule...the best win % against top 50 opponents (outside of Kentucky of course).

So based on all of that, if Villanova, Wisconsin, and Kansas win out, the most likely scenario seems to be;

Midwest Regional
1. Kentucky
2. Gonzaga

East Regional
1. Villanova
2. Duke

South Regional
1. Virginia
2. Kansas (closer to Houston than Cleveland)

West Regional
1. Wisconsin
2. Arizona

I give Virginia the nod over Duke because they won the ACC regular season title and Duke didn't win any titles, but I could see the committee flipping them based on the Anderson injury.

GBB!!!

That is exactly how I see it playing out, assuming Wisconsin and Villanova win out.

 

[UKErik]

I mean....Syracuse and Cleveland are almost the same distance from Duke and UVA...less than a hundred miles.

GBB!!!

 

[BourbonBalz]

Another fly in the ointment could be Notre Dame. If they beat UNC tomorrow, could they knock a team off the 2 seed line? Maybe Kansas or Gonzaga? They only have 5 losses and some very good wins. Plus they would be the ACC Champs.

 

[UKErik]

If Kansas wins, I can't see them getting knocked off the two seed line. The Big 12 is the alleged best conference in college basketball. KU will have won both championships and played the toughest schedule in the nation.

I could see Notre Dame being the #2 in the Midwest though. Definitely a possibility. That would allow the committee to leave Gonzaga out west as the #3.

GBB!!!