I'll highlight this as I believe it is more than worth highlighting that, for the most part, things are pretty cordial on this board. And that's no small feat on the interweb.
Teddy channels Phillips on CC
- Thread starter JournCat
- Start date
I'll highlight this as I believe it is more than worth highlighting that, for the most part, things are pretty cordial on this board. And that's no small feat on the interweb.
Yeah, it seems that he's tightened up the rotation during conference play, the numbers I got are for full-season. No easy way to get conference-only numbers from kenpom.
Early wins against the likes of Merrimack, Radford and Hartford could have given this team a bit of mojo. Could have also had wins vs. DePaul, Indiana and Purdue. 12-9 would certainly look pretty darn good about now.
But how many close B1G games have we had that were close to 50/50? Nebraska, @Indiana, Purdue, @Illinois, prooobably Maryland and OSU (we ended up losing by 10+ but were ahead for a long time). So that gives us 6 games. We have been soundly beaten @MSU, Iowa, @Purdue, @Minn. You could possibly argue home MSU cause we only lost by 5, but that game did not ever feel like we would win in the 2H, we were just clinging close and had some late shots - maybe trade in one of those for Maryland or OSU if you want. If we split the 6 evenly, we are 3-8. If you include MSU you end up at 3.5 - 7.5
Look at the B1G standings - that puts us at 13th out of 14 still. If we win slightly more than half then 4-7 is T-12 with Michigan. The only way that "better mojo" gets us to a respectable level is if we win all of our tossups and somehow miraculously get to 5 or 6 wins.
It is a very tough conference this year. We are fighting hard, and have played a lot of good first 20-30 minutes (it's also possible that we are not getting teams' best shot until the 2H). But even if we were at 3-8 and tracking for 5-6 conference wins, that would not make this a good season. It would make it better than last year's and marginally tolerable, but the "state of the program" would still be in question - we would be looking towards next year and thinking that we really need our young talent to develop.
Functionally I don't see a huge difference between 3-17 and 6-14 tbh - sure 6-14 would feel better, but the focus is on player development. Which has been mixed to date. Which feeds back into the importance of next year. I don't think CC is on the hot seat right now (or should be), but I think if we fail to see meaningful improvement next year, then he goes onto the hot seat. And if we still fail to see meaningful improvement the year after, then that's 5 straight down years and I would potentially / probably (I still reserve the option to change my mind based on circumstances) think it is time to make a switch.
(for the record, "meaningful improvement" does not require us making the tournament, but I think it requires us being close to .500 in conference and in contention for the tourney (ie make the NIT). if we go 5 straight years without being in meaningful contention, that is pretty damning evidence that something is going wrong and this regime has run out of excuses.)
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1-3-5 wins does not, indeed, functionally, make a big difference. Does not move us above 13th.
But it sure would make me feel better about our coach being able to... coach. Which, right now, I have a lot of doubts he can. Poor coaching will cost you 3-5 wins.
Furthermore, the players need to believe they are in good hands. If not, it’s incredibly destructive. It’s pure speculation but I wonder if, by now, they still trust the coach.
But it sure would make me feel better about our coach being able to... coach. Which, right now, I have a lot of doubts he can. Poor coaching will cost you 3-5 wins.
Furthermore, the players need to believe they are in good hands. If not, it’s incredibly destructive. It’s pure speculation but I wonder if, by now, they still trust the coach.
Recruiting is going to tell the story imo. If he can maintain what we’ve seen in the last two and this upcoming class, plus hit on a transfer here or there I think CC can get us on solid footing. If the recruiting slips backwards then we aren’t going to be much better given the strength of the Big 10 and the calls for his replacement will grow.
Success to me would be a solid middle of the pack Big 10 team with spikes that result in tourney trips. If he can get to that stage then the next step is possible.
It does seem like our luck could have certainly been better with Taylor and Turner. Both seemed like huge gets on the transfer market. Spencer, on the other hand, has been better than anyone could have hoped.
Good thread.
If NU had beaten Indiana or Purdue, the season would feel at least a little different. For me, tho, the frustration is that it’s not “mojo” that was needed — just competence.
It’s always a guard’s game, and NU is still relying on a freshman and a lacrosse player as the primary ball handler — paying for past sins, certainly — and the play at that position has contributed to those losses.
That said, I feel so much better today than I did a year ago. Kopp is a player. Young is not just a tall guy with a lame offer list. Boo shows he could have mojo. Beran plays like Coble.
If those four guys simply advance, next year’s team will be better. If Berry is good or Nance accelerates or Jones takes a leap or Audige is good or Nicholson continues his apparent trajectory, well, shoot, there’s a real rotation there.
“Real rotation” feels like a not-so-unlikely result. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel. It’d just be more apparent if NU stole a few the rest of the way (any win will be thievery, I think).
If NU had beaten Indiana or Purdue, the season would feel at least a little different. For me, tho, the frustration is that it’s not “mojo” that was needed — just competence.
It’s always a guard’s game, and NU is still relying on a freshman and a lacrosse player as the primary ball handler — paying for past sins, certainly — and the play at that position has contributed to those losses.
That said, I feel so much better today than I did a year ago. Kopp is a player. Young is not just a tall guy with a lame offer list. Boo shows he could have mojo. Beran plays like Coble.
If those four guys simply advance, next year’s team will be better. If Berry is good or Nance accelerates or Jones takes a leap or Audige is good or Nicholson continues his apparent trajectory, well, shoot, there’s a real rotation there.
“Real rotation” feels like a not-so-unlikely result. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel. It’d just be more apparent if NU stole a few the rest of the way (any win will be thievery, I think).