Teddy G article on the season
- Thread starter SteveNU
- Start date
He missed the graduation of Lumpkin and absence of anyone recruited who could replace his particular skill set. He does cite loss of Rap and lack of development of Benson as problems, but while he identifies the no point guard issue, he misses the absence of a power forward as a specific issue.
1. Boned by the administration
2. Injury to Ash
3. Injury to Nance
4. Injury to Falzon
5. Players shoot bad
6. Conference is hard
None of this is on the coaching staff. You could have the best coaching staff in America, and they couldn’t have played through this.
You think anybody else in America is dealing with injuries to bench players and freshmen?
2. Injury to Ash
3. Injury to Nance
4. Injury to Falzon
5. Players shoot bad
6. Conference is hard
None of this is on the coaching staff. You could have the best coaching staff in America, and they couldn’t have played through this.
You think anybody else in America is dealing with injuries to bench players and freshmen?
The current team's primary issue is that it can't score. I don't think Lumpkin would have changed that at all. He benefitted from being on a team where he was the fifth option and got wide open looks. I don't doubt that they missed his leadership and intangibles last year but you aren't going to win many games scoring in the 50's. We need more guys that can put the ball in the basket other than on wide open looks (and even then we struggle). Guys that can penetrate and either finish at the basket or draw defenders. This is one of the worst finishing teams I have seen since the really dark years. There have been so many times this year when we have had an advantage on a fast break only to get a shot blocked or pass stolen and the other team converts an easy basket. An athletic point guard certainly would help.
Having Benson start at Iowa, Nebraska and OSU and at home against Rutgers speaks to this deficit. I am not saying it is the most important deficit, but not having a true power forward has put extra pressure on Pardon defensively, and the duplicative talent of 4 wings and no PF has allowed team to extend their defense at the perimeter since the only player who can establish position low is Pardon.
I think you are underestimating Lumpkin on what he brought to the offense. Yes, he wasn’t much of a shooter, but I recall him being strong on the offense glass and keeping all kinds of balls alive for second changes and eventually other teammates capitalized on.
Teddy slipped in this tidbit: “Lathon was slated to replace him, but the school revoked his admission after an incident on his recruiting visit.“
That statement seems to imply that something happened that was egregious enough to revoke his scholarship during his visit. Water under the bridge now but the effects of which we are still feeling.
That statement seems to imply that something happened that was egregious enough to revoke his scholarship during his visit. Water under the bridge now but the effects of which we are still feeling.
Assuming "boned by the administration" is in reference to Lathon... yeah, having him enroll would have been completely untenable.
Oh, please!! Can we stop with the Lumpkin madness?!?!
Lumpkin was "a guy." He's already been replaced.
Since nobody wants to look at the statistics, let me throw them out there for you - Lumpkin vs. Gaines in conference.
Lumpkin (senior season)
5.1 p/game
28% from 3 (25 attempts)
62% FT (29 attempts)
67% from 2 (39 attempts)
9.3 TRB%
500 mins
9 steals
84 rebounds
4 blocks
11 turnovers
.105 win shares/40m
103.1 defensive rating
Gaines (this year)
11 p/game
25% from 3 (36 attempts)
80% FT (65 attempts)
36% from 2 (88 attempts)
10.2 TRB%
527 mins
17 steals
94 rebounds
8 blocks
17 turnovers
.089 win shares/40m
102.1 defensive rating
And Gaines is only a sophomore!! Want to compare Lumpkin's sophomore numbers to Gaines? One hint: Lumpkin's defensive rating was 112.7 in conference.
Yea, there's a really big difference there. And Gaines arrived as Lumpkin exited the building. So that was really tough to find.
Lumpkin was "a guy." He's already been replaced.
Since nobody wants to look at the statistics, let me throw them out there for you - Lumpkin vs. Gaines in conference.
Lumpkin (senior season)
5.1 p/game
28% from 3 (25 attempts)
62% FT (29 attempts)
67% from 2 (39 attempts)
9.3 TRB%
500 mins
9 steals
84 rebounds
4 blocks
11 turnovers
.105 win shares/40m
103.1 defensive rating
Gaines (this year)
11 p/game
25% from 3 (36 attempts)
80% FT (65 attempts)
36% from 2 (88 attempts)
10.2 TRB%
527 mins
17 steals
94 rebounds
8 blocks
17 turnovers
.089 win shares/40m
102.1 defensive rating
And Gaines is only a sophomore!! Want to compare Lumpkin's sophomore numbers to Gaines? One hint: Lumpkin's defensive rating was 112.7 in conference.
Yea, there's a really big difference there. And Gaines arrived as Lumpkin exited the building. So that was really tough to find.
Thank you for providing a much more measured assessment than me.
For those of you digging for the reasons, you really don't need to go beyond the best three or four players. The problems don't begin because we have a lack of role players on a good team. The Cats have plenty of those.
And you're silly if you think the 11th, 12th and 13th scholarships will make some vast difference.
I’ll cite Court-Jester’s conference free throw differential stats as correlating to absence of a power forward:
2016-17 -1.39
2017-18 -5.23
2018-19 -8.69
Maybe there is not causation, but the only change in the starting 5 from 2016-17 to 17-18 was Lumpkin.
I personally put all the blame on Collins. Maybe 20% recruiting failures (I don't blame him for Lathon, though) and 80% a complete inability to put anything together resembling an offense. A healthy Ash, Falzon, and Nance don't really move the needle. How we can look so lost on offense with Law, Pardon, Taylor, and Gaines out there is baffling. The next couple of years are going to be brutal given how bad we were *with* those guys. I'll always have a great appreciation for that first class and getting us to the tourney, but I'm starting to think more and more that he is incapable of re-producing the enthusiasm that brought him that first class or the lightning in a bottle of the tourney year team.
I'll definitely renew my season tickets this year, but it's nowhere near as sure a thing as it used to be when they were far far cheaper. I'd watch pretty much anything for a couple hundred bucks a year back then.
I'll definitely renew my season tickets this year, but it's nowhere near as sure a thing as it used to be when they were far far cheaper. I'd watch pretty much anything for a couple hundred bucks a year back then.
Well this is a new one.
Let me be generous.
Are you trying to say there was less of a difference between the number of FTs attempted by NU compared to its opponent because of Lumpkin? In other words, Lumpkin played "some" ... part ... in helping the team get more FT attempts, while also preventing more FT attempts?
If so, you might want to look at your numbers because the -8.69 has nothing to do with that.
If I understand the black hole we're traveling for the Lumpkin story, I think the numbers you're looking for are:
16-17 -2.63 attempts/game
17-18 -2.59 attempts/game
18-19 -1.03 attempts/game
If you want to go down this bumpy road about free throws attempted, the reality is you also might want to look at how many FTs Law and McIntosh attempted last year.
I know. Those prickly little details and facts surrounding injuries can really throw things off.
What I am saying is that maybe having a power forward instead of a bunch of wings made a difference in defense and in how other teams defended the Cats, and losing a physical presence on the front line hurt them. Can you explain why in Conference Collins started Benson along with Pardon 5 times this season except to say the other rotations lack some muscle low?
Lumpkin’s individual stats don’t necessarily tell the whole story.
Last edited:
Our offense stinks because we stink at shooting. Lumpkin's 1.5 offensive rebounds and 2 tip-backs would not change that sad fact. Other folks claim this team lacks fire. I thought that was an issue last year. In the games I have attended this year, I thought the team played very hard, especially on defense. They just lack scorers. It's painful to watch and obviously much more painful for the players on the court. It has to wear on them through the course of a season. They couldn't get a big basket at the end of the Indiana, Oklahoma and Michigan games, all games they could have won. Since then, our confidence has decreased and our shooting has gotten worse.
We obviously have only one player that is an inside factor. I love Gaines, but he is a different player than Lumpkin. No idea why Gaines keeps being tossed out there as the “replacement”. If Lumpkin was on this team, he would be starting and so would Gaines. Rolling out stats doesn’t tell the whole story. Some guys put up gaudy stats and I personally wouldn’t want them on my team because he don’t do the little things that make a team better. Worse yet, they make mistakes at the most critical times. Other players make teams better without filling the stat sheet. You know a clutch shot, being able to get a stop when it is absolutely necessary and tipping an offensive board out to the PG who drains a 3.
NU clearly needed a PG to do anything this year, but don’t omit the fact that there was second glaring hole at PF.
NU clearly needed a PG to do anything this year, but don’t omit the fact that there was second glaring hole at PF.
Yes, the Cats have not shot well when open. They also have not gotten as many good looks as one would hope because they cannot penetrate off the dribble and the defense has been able to take away passing lanes from the ball handler to other players, and because there is no second power player Pardon has gotten doubled a lot and lost some effectiveness in the post and there is no one who can first post up and break out for intermediate jumpers.
Saying the problem is that they cannot shoot is an oversimplification. If you want to simplify, say the Cats have one decent post player, a bunch of wings and no point guard or lead guard who can penetrate. This has led to problems in getting decent shots,problems on d against some teams, and problems closing out games. And, by the way, a few of the wings are only streaky shooters who do not shoot well on the move, so yes, they also have problems shooting.
Last edited:
I don't blame Collins' schemes or his play calling. I think he has a really sharp basketball mind and I think we miss a lot of open shots. And at some point, it comes down to beating your defender.
I do blame him, though, for our offensive struggles and have two primary concerns. I think that his intensity wears on some players and makes them hesitant to take chances offensively, especially the freshmen. If you are already wound tight from a shooting slump, seeing your coach agonizing over every play doesn't help. More importantly, I am concerned that he doesn't know how to evaluate and develop lesser talent. He spent a decade recruiting and coaching the best players in the country. Does he know how to evaluate the players in the 75 to 300 range and does he have the patience to develop them? Law, Pardon, McIntosh and Lindsey were great recruits. Since then, he has yet to recruit a B1G starter in my opinion. Kopp and Nance should develop into good players but the rest of the recruits are role players. Gaines is a nice guy to have coming off the bench or perhaps a starter on a loaded team. Falzon may have developed into a multi-dimensional player but we will never know. Even in his freshman year when he was healthy, he was pretty much a 3-point specialist who was not a good defender. Even his transfers look like role players.
I obviously hope I am wrong and it was just bad luck. Next year is really a critical year. Nance and Kopp have to make huge strides and at least two of the freshmen need to contribute immediately. Otherwise, it's going to be harder to convince recruits that they he can get them to the tournament. On the plus side, I don't see Duke hiring him...
About three posts ago, you dismissed the idea that there was no replacement for Lumpkin’s skill set by saying the current players can’t shoot (“our offense stinks because we stink at shooting”).
Now you are going into a diatribe about evaluating middle level players, the psychology of development and te effects of both on individual players. Could you possibly step back and look at the idea that recruiting for complementary skill sets is important and the current team does not reflect that? Lumpkin and his skills helped the team. So did BMac’s.
I am taking my stats from court jester. Are they wrong? If so, I apologize. I assumed having a power forward instead of a wing made a difference on both sides of the court. His (her?) stats backed that up. If they are wrong, and there has not been an increase in free throw deficit the last two years in conference, I take back what I said about the absence of a power forward and will go back and ask jester if he is taking any medications we should be aware of.
Last edited:
You make some good points but I couldn't disagree more that Lumpkin would make a meaningful difference in this offense. I honestly can't believe we are having this discussion. He wasn't a power player and he didn't post up. Skelly posted up and had some success from time to time. Lumpkin took some bigger players off the dribble, ran the fast break well, got some offensive put backs and made the occasional wide open 3. If we were getting 40 to 45 points from our starting point guard, shooting guard and small forward like in 2015-2016, the offense could support a player like Lumpkin. We are barely getting 25 points in some conference games from those 3 positions. We need a power forward that can be a primary scorer on the team. Lumpkin was never close to being that player. He had 3 points and 0 rebounds in our tournament win and 2 points and 4 rebounds against Michigan, arguably our two biggest wins. He was never double-teamed in his college career. I have no doubt that he set good screens if you want to try to make that point, but I don't think that would solve our current problems.
And of course we miss McIntosh. He was the single biggest reason we had an success on offense.
And when does a post become a diatribe? I think they are legitimate concerns.
I believe he visited in Dec or Jan, but the administration revoked his admission in late May or early June 2018. Practice starts in September. He commited in June of 2017. That is a year of planning rosters and playing styles and around a player removed 3 months before practice starts and almost a year after the main recruiting period. crippling timing.
as far as untenable, there is definitely not a consensus that anything was untenable at all.
i think Gaines is a solid starter. can defend multiple positions, push the ball, and and be a toughness guy, and gets to the free throw line - and is pretty efficient for what he does
per game: 27 mpg, 56/156 (6.8 ppg), 4.5 reb, 2.2 asst, 0.8 stl, 1.2 to, 35% fg, 77% ft
per year: 29 games, 785 min, 132 reb, 63 asst, 22 stl, 36 to, 17 blk
other B1G guys who are not "star" guards with the most similar minutes:
Gaines (NU) - 29 games, 785 min, 56/156 (6.8 ppg) 132 reb, 63 asst, 22 stl, 36 to, 17 blk
wieskamp (iowa) - 29 games, 769 min, 106/213 fg (11.1ppg), 137 reb, 31 asst, 26 stl, 34 to, 12 blk
mcbrayer (minn) - 28 games, 867 min, 84/230 (9.1 ppg), 60 reb, 82 asst, 29 stl, 39 to, 3 blk
kalscheur (minn) - 29 games, 878, 100/234 (10.1 ppg), 57 reb, 37 asst, 24 stl, 33 to, 11 blk
Allen (neb) - 29 game, 875 min, 96/220 (8.7ppg), 81 reb, 59 asst, 38 stl, 29 to, 6 blk
eastern (pur) - 29 games, 820 min, 78/164 (5.5 ppg), 163 reb, 69 asst, 35 stl, 43 to, 11 blk
jordan (ill) - 29 games, 787 min, 71/196 (8.1 ppg) 138 reb, 42 asst, 27 stl, 23 to, 13 blk
iverson (wisc) - 28 games, 660 min, 61/120 (5.7), 113 reb, 24 asst, 26 stl, 28 to, 11 blk
muhammad (osu) - 28 games, 800 min, 77/201 (8.4), 78 reb, 53 asst, 29 stl, 42 to, 2 blk
ayala (mary) - 30 games, 855 min, 85/190 (8.5), 83 reb, 69 asst, 10 stl, 50 to, 8 blk
mathis (rut) - 28 games, 654 min, 91/237 (9.0), 82 reb, 31 asst, 21 stl, 35 to, 6 blk
matthews (mich) - 28 games, 897 min, 132/303 (12.8) 144 reb, 39 asst, 31 stl, 48 to, 12 blk
mcquaid (msu) - 26 games, 787 min, 77/189 (8.8) 83 reb, 61 asst, 14 stl, 20 to, 3 blks (similar per minute stats for a mcdonalds all amercan)
durham (ind) - 28 games, 786 min, 72/173 (7.8) 53 reb, 44 asst, 12 stl, 39 to, 6 blk
dread (psu) - 29 games, 845 min, 87/222 (8.8) 79 reb, 34 asst, 19 stl, 22 to, 3 blk
bolton (psu) - 29 games, 792 min, 107/275, (12.1) 58 reb, 43 asst, 17 stl, 76 to, 2 blks
1. Too many guys on this team haven't been able to hit wide open looks (at least consistently).
2. What this team is missing is scoring efficiency (aside from Pardon). Lumpkin had a FG% of .588 his last season; .705 from inside the arc, so Lumpkin's prime method of scoring was the tough way.
Thought he held himself back from attempting more shots, which likely wouldn't be as much of an issue w/ this team.
Exactly.
The only reason people compare Gaines to Lumpkin is b/c of their physicality (for their respective sizes) and ability to play D.
Lumpkin could defend all 5 positions and provided the crucial 2nd physical body up front (which the 'Cats are lacking).
Also, Gaines' FG% is .359; not even coming close to replacing Lumpkin.
For inside the arc, Gaines is at .389, which is way below Lumpkin's .705.
Now, some may say compare Lumpkin's 2nd (or 3rd) yr to Gaines, but that wouldn't exactly follow the argument of Gaines being a suitable replacement (since he would have to be replacing Lumpkin as he is and not what he was).
Lumpkin in his 2nd yr. was .441 in 2P FG% and .617 his 3rd yr., so still higher than Gaines.
Sanjay may not have posted up (was a bit short for that), but was a power player.
Despite Gavin having more post moves, Lumpkin had a higher efficiency from 2pt range.
.705 for Lumpkin and .568 for Gavin during the Tourney season (the next season, Gavin's efficiency dropped to .457).
Last edited:
How has this devolved into a thread about Sanjay?
This is the worst shooting team, based on team FG%, since Collins’s first year, and it’s not close. It’s very possible that when the season is over, that number will be below 40%, compared with 45% just a couple of years ago. That’s the difference of at least a couple of shots going in, which would have given NU wins @Indiana, @Iowa and vs Michigan and Oklahoma.
This is the worst shooting team, based on team FG%, since Collins’s first year, and it’s not close. It’s very possible that when the season is over, that number will be below 40%, compared with 45% just a couple of years ago. That’s the difference of at least a couple of shots going in, which would have given NU wins @Indiana, @Iowa and vs Michigan and Oklahoma.
^ Well, some here like to continually denigrate/dismiss what Sanjay, and for that matter, Tap, brought to the program.
Aside from the centers, Lump and Tap had the highest FG% on the Tourney team.
That combined 10.5 ppg was even more important on the basis of the # of possessions it took.
Aside from the centers, Lump and Tap had the highest FG% on the Tourney team.
That combined 10.5 ppg was even more important on the basis of the # of possessions it took.
Lumpkin is mentioned a ridiculous amount as an irreplaceable guy. My discussion is that he's very replacable and already has been.
Both of them are tough players who depend on defending multiple positions. I think that makes them VERY comparable.
Lumpkin could guard four positions. No, he didn't guard the one well.
Gaines is guarding four positions. He doesn't guard the five.
And unlike Lumpkin, he's producing on both ends of the court in his sophomore year.
Lumpkin was nowhere near the player in his sophomore year that he eventually became.
The stats speak for themselves. Fine, you want to say Sanjay had some type of intangible. I'll go with it. It doesn't change the similarity in their stats and purpose on the floor.
My point is not who is the better player. But let's get over this idea that Lumpkin is irreplaceable.
They are not wrong. I'm questioning what the difference in free throw attempts per game between OOC vs B10 - Jester's original point - has to do with an evaluation of Lumpkin.
Whoever said he was irreplaceable? It probably should have been the easiest guy to replace off that roster, but it hasn’t happened. A rather innocent comment that Teddy didn’t mention Lumpkin has devolved into a Debate on his value.
My take has always been that the biggest issue is the lack of a PG to set up the offense. After the ball crosses midcourt, it goes backwards more often than forward. There are reasons the entire team except Pardon have worse shooting percentages than we expected. They aren’t getting the ball in great spots to shoot or the clock is at 3 seconds left. Miss some and their confidence is shot. I am not buying this wide open looks stuff in most games. Some yes, most no.
Nothing, but I was pointing out that the big in conference deficit started the year after Lumpkin graduated, and a fair assumption would be the loss of his defense. Essentially, the deficit went from -1 to -5 and now almost -9. I put forward the hypothesis the first jump was loss of defense, the second absence of a point guard leading to loss of offense.
So let me see if I got this straight. Jester's stat - the difference in free throw attempts per game, OOC vs. B10 games - has "nothing" to do with an evaluation of Lumpkin.
But it's a fair assumption that the loss of Lumpkin's defense contributed to the increase in that same stat.
That's an interesting path.
And Purple Driver wonders why I feel the need to clear up some ... shall we say, misconceptions.
He was considered to be NU’s top target to replace BMac? It was a blow that he chose Stanford instead.
I love Sanjay. Big fan. He was great. But this thread is nuts. He is not what we are missing this year. He was an excellent versatile defender and grit guy. We are pretty darned good at defense this year. It’s just that our offense is atrocious, particularly against the good B1G defenses. His grit might have helped us be tougher and pull out a tight game or two. But he would not have solved our fundamental issue of having no scorers on offense.
Someone said we lack people who can make shots... we lack that and also people who can create shots. Sanjay would not have helped that. Katatonic you must know your comparisons are silly, comparing Sanjay eFG% on very low volume when most of those were layups or open 3’s created by others.
Another person suggested that Sanjay’s ability to play the 4 would have made a difference. First of all, I loved that he could defend up and down the lineup, but he was what 6-5 or 6-6? And more importantly, it’s not like we are only losing to teams that have multiple bigs. We are losing to everyone that has a decent basketball team. It’s not matchup problems inside on D (or O) that are the issue. It’s that we cannot score.
Just to repeat, I love Sanjay, he was huge for the tournament team and we wouldn’t have made the run we did without him. But he is not what this year’s team is missing on the court. His intangibles would have helped a bit I’m sure, but they would not have overcome the glaring issues we have on offense.