The battle for 4th place (Warning--Long!)

[mikewebb68]

For the double-bye in the BTT it looks like it is down to three teams competing for 4th place; Minny, MSU and us (Michigan is technically n contention, but the loss to Minny kills them in tiebreakers, and being 2 back with 3 out of 4 on the road remaining likely, renders their chances unworthy of discussion)

Here are the remaining schedules and some commentary from me, with KenPom rankings as of this writing in parenthesis

Northwestern (33)

@ lolIllinois (72)-- they've only beaten Iowa and us (sans Scottie) in the last 5 weeks, and though they won the last time out, that is actually a positive from a trend perspective, since they have not won back-to-back BIG regular season games in nearly two calendar years. After they beat us, they completely laid an egg at home vs. Penn State. All of this, combined the fact that Collins has probably had this game circled since the last handshake with Groce and the fact that we are at full strength adds up to a victory to me.
@ Indiana (45)-- another team playing out the string, they've actually have had less BIG wins than the lolIllini in the last month. Their ONE BIG win in their last SEVEN games came in triple OY at home vs. Penn State when Penn State when the Nittany Lions could simply not make free throws. I know that it is Indiana in Bloomington, but I just don't see a team that is playing so badly and may have quit on their coach righting the ship against a team that handled them on the road (yes, I know it was without Blackmon, but he has not been the same player since his return anyway), even if they do beat Iowa before playing us.
vs. MIchigan (27) -- I am hoping that yet another crushing road loss vs. Minny tonight has gotten indie the heads of a team that has won one road game all season (vs. Indiana, which was in the midst of their current tailspin). If this game was at their place I think we would be routed, but on the road they were soundly beaten by the lolIllini (!!!). Plus, they will be in a brutal stretch of 4 of 5 on the road. Their only home game? Just before they play us, vs. Purdue. Game could not set up better for us.
vs. Purdue (11)-- OK, I got nuttin. Well except for the one Purdue fan who came over to our board and said we would split with them. Wish I could agree....

Conclusion: The average Kenpom of our remaining schedule is tough (38.75), but three of the four game set up extremely well for us, and being at full strength and not having lost three in a row all season, full strength or not, works in our favor. Thinking 3-1 or 2-2. And, though this doesn't matter for purposes of getting the double-bye,it is important to understand for tourney purposes that none of these team can damage our Kenpom all that much...

Michigan State (53)

vs. Nebby (79)-- on paper, this seems like a rout, but Nebby has won 2 in a row, had demonstrated some proficiency on the road (wins at Maryland and OSU). Furthermore as we have seen with our team, the first few games after losing a leading score (as MSU has with Eron Harris) can be challenging. But this is an absolute must-win game for MSU; if they lose not only are they out of contention for the double bye, but possibly first four out as well given their remaining schedule (below), Thus, can't see the Spartans losing this one
vs. Wisky (15)-- if they played this game when we did, when Wisky had won 8 straight and was going to hit a rough patch, I would have given this one to MSU, But Wisky, has righted to ship, and this one will be a tall, tall order the second game without Harris.
@ lolIllinois (72)- this is just a mismatch in every sense of the word. They only way I see the Spartans possibly losing this one is if....never mind scratch that, no way on earth they are losing this game.
@ Maryland (31)-- Maryland has an easy stretch of lead-in games (vs. Iowa, @ Rutgers) and also gets a week off to play this in a game that may be meaningful to the BIG regular season championship. Another tough, tough test for the Spartans.

Conclusion-- though the average KenPom of their schedule is easier than ours (49.25), they are probably going to need a 3-1 finish to beat us (since they are a full game back, even though they have the tiebreaker over us if we finish with identical records). Though it is not impossible, 2-2 seems far, far more likely without their third leading scorer.


Minnesota (39)

@ Maryland (31)-- only two days to prepare for a long trip to Maryland; will their be any gas left in the tank after an overtime game vs. Michigan this evening that was exhausting to watch let alone play? Maryland was flat after their last loss to a ranked team, but that was on the road at Penn State, this one is at home vs. a team they already beat on the road Signs are pointing to a Gopher loss for me, after having won 5 in a row vs. mostly meh BIG competition.
vs. Penn State (80)-- the end of a brutal stretch of three games in seven days, and the Gophers did lose their first meeting to the Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan, which, is essentially playing a neutral site game. But Penn State has not beaten anyone in the BIG on the road with a pulse, and managed to give away a game to Indiana on the road for Indiana's only win in their last seven. Thus I don't see Minny being swept here.
vs, Nebby (79)-- Minny gets a week off to prep for their only meeting with Nebby. Thouhg Nebby is certainly capable of pulling off the upset, I would give the nod to the Gophers in the Barn, where they have played well.
@ Wisconsin (15)- Minny has the size to match up with the Badgers, but their bigs seem too prone to foul trouble to win the war on the road vs Happ and Co. in a game that will most certainly be important to the Badgers for seeding purposes This game also sets up nicely for Wisconsin as the second of back-to-back home games, with the first vs. Iowa. Not thinking this is going to be as close as Minny's loss to Wisky at home.

Conclusion: easiest KenPom schedule of the three contenders (average: 51.25), which is why I was hoping that Michigan would have pulled out the win vs. Minny, especially since Minny, like MSU, owns the tiebreaker vs us (and we lose a three-way tiebreak with these two teams, obviously, which was not the case with Michigan if we beat them). However, being one game behind us, Minny will likely need to go 3-1 here, and with Wisky and Maryland both on the road, 2-2 just seems more likely

Thus, if you made it this far, I believe we have an excellent shot at the double bye! End walls of text.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Minny will upset a team in next two weeks

 

[backdoorpass]

Michigan State (53)
...
Conclusion-- though the average KenPom of their schedule is easier than ours (49.25), they are probably going to need a 3-1 finish to beat us (since they are a full game back), and though it is not impossible, 2-2 seems far, far more likely without their third leading scorer.

Don't forget that Michigan State wins the tie-breaker against us (due to the loss in our only head-to-head matchup). If we tie for 4th, they get the 4 seed and the double-bye.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Nice breakdown, Mike. Appreciate the insight.

 

[mikewebb68]

Don't forget that Michigan State wins the tie-breaker against us (due to the loss in our only head-to-head matchup). If we tie for 4th, they get the 4 seed and the double-bye.

Correct, I mention all the tiebreakers at the end of the post., but will edit so that it is more clear. But they are still a game behind us so still need to finish one game better than us (e.g if we go 2-2, they must win at least 3, which is a tall order given their schedule and the fact that they just lost their third leading scorer). That is why beating Rutgers was so important.

 

[ricko6543211]

For the double-bye in the BTT it looks like it is down to three teams competing for 4th place; Minny, MSU and us (Michigan is technically n contention, but the loss to Minny kills them in tiebreakers, and being 2 back with 3 out of 4 on the road remaining likely, renders their chances unworthy of discussion)

Here are the remaining schedules and some commentary from me, with KenPom rankings as of this writing in parenthesis

Northwestern (33)

@ lolIllinois (72)-- they've only beaten Iowa and us (sans Scottie) in the last 5 weeks, and though they won the last time out, that is actually a positive from a trend perspective, since they have not won back-to-back BIG regular season games in nearly two calendar years. After they beat us, they completely laid an egg at home vs. Penn State. All of this, combined the fact that Collins has probably had this game circled since the last handshake with Groce and the fact that we are at full strength adds up to a victory to me.
@ Indiana (45)-- another team playing out the string, they've actually have had less BIG wins than the lolIllini in the last month. Their ONE BIG win in their last SEVEN games came in triple OY at home vs. Penn State when Penn State when the Nittany Lions could simply not make free throws. I know that it is Indiana in Bloomington, but I just don't see a team that is playing so badly and may have quit on their coach righting the ship against a team that handled them on the road (yes, I know it was without Blackmon, but he has not been the same player since his return anyway), even if they do beat Iowa before playing us.
vs. MIchigan (27) -- I am hoping that yet another crushing road loss vs. Minny tonight has gotten indie the heads of a team that has won one road game all season (vs. Indiana, which was in the midst of their current tailspin). If this game was at their place I think we would be routed, but on the road they were soundly beaten by the lolIllini (!!!). Plus, they will be in a brutal stretch of 4 of 5 on the road. Their only home game? Just before they play us, vs. Purdue. Game could not set up better for us.
vs. Purdue (11)-- OK, I got nuttin. Well except for the one Purdue fan who came over to our board and said we would split with them. Wish I could agree....

Conclusion: The average Kenpom of our remaining schedule is tough (38.75), but three of the four game set up extremely well for us, and being at full strength and not having lost three in a row all season, full strength or not, works in our favor. Thinking 3-1 or 2-2. And, though this doesn't matter for purposes of getting the double-bye,it is important to understand for tourney purposes that none of these team can damage our Kenpom all that much...

Michigan State (53)

vs. Nebby (79)-- on paper, this seems like a rout, but Nebby has won 2 in a row, had demonstrated some proficiency on the road (wins at Maryland and OSU). Furthermore as we have seen with our team, the first few games after losing a leading score (as MSU has with Eron Harris) can be challenging. But this is an absolute must-win game for MSU; if they lose not only are they out of contention for the double bye, but possibly first four out as well given their remaining schedule (below), Thus, can't see the Spartans losing this one
vs. Wisky (15)-- if they played this game when we did, when Wisky had won 8 straight and was going to hit a rough patch, I would have given this one to MSU, But Wisky, has righted to ship, and this one will be a tall, tall order the second game without Harris.
@ lolIllinois (72)- this is just a mismatch in every sense of the word. They only way I see the Spartans possibly losing this one is if....never mind scratch that, no way on earth they are losing this game.
@ Maryland (31)-- Maryland has an easy stretch of lead-in games (vs. Iowa, @ Rutgers) and also gets a week off to play this in a game that may be meaningful to the BIG regular season championship. Another tough, tough test for the Spartans.

Conclusion-- though the average KenPom of their schedule is easier than ours (49.25), they are probably going to need a 3-1 finish to beat us (since they are a full game back, even though they have the tiebreaker over us if we finish with identical records). Though it is not impossible, 2-2 seems far, far more likely without their third leading scorer.


Minnesota (39)

@ Maryland (31)-- only two days to prepare for a long trip to Maryland; will their be any gas left in the tank after an overtime game vs. Michigan this evening that was exhausting to watch let alone play? Maryland was flat after their last loss to a ranked team, but that was on the road at Penn State, this one is at home vs. a team they already beat on the road Signs are pointing to a Gopher loss for me, after having won 5 in a row vs. mostly meh BIG competition.
vs. Penn State (80)-- the end of a brutal stretch of three games in seven days, and the Gophers did lose their first meeting to the Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan, which, is essentially playing a neutral site game. But Penn State has not beaten anyone in the BIG on the road with a pulse, and managed to give away a game to Indiana on the road for Indiana's only win in their last seven. Thus I don't see Minny being swept here.
vs, Nebby (79)-- Minny gets a week off to prep for their only meeting with Nebby. Thouhg Nebby is certainly capable of pulling off the upset, I would give the nod to the Gophers in the Barn, where they have played well.
@ Wisconsin (15)- Minny has the size to match up with the Badgers, but their bigs seem too prone to foul trouble to win the war on the road vs Happ and Co. in a game that will most certainly be important to the Badgers for seeding purposes This game also sets up nicely for Wisconsin as the second of back-to-back home games, with the first vs. Iowa. Not thinking this is going to be as close as Minny's loss to Wisky at home.

Conclusion: easiest KenPom schedule of the three contenders (average: 51.25), which is why I was hoping that Michigan would have pulled out the win vs. Minny, especially since Minny, like MSU, owns the tiebreaker vs us (and we lose a three-way tiebreak with these two teams, obviously, which was not the case with Michigan if we beat them). However, being one game behind us, Minny will likely need to go 3-1 here, and with Wisky and Maryland both on the road, 2-2 just seems more likely

Thus, if you made it this far, I believe we have an excellent shot at the double bye! End walls of text.

Yeah this is all great stuff, thanks. I was also looking at the schedule. I came to the conclusion that 2-2 leaves us with about a 50/50 shot of getting the double bye -- basically Minn MSU each have two tough games left, but if either goes 3-1 they'd pass us due to tiebreak, or else if Mich runs the table with a win over us we could lose it. 3-1 and 12-6 would make us close to a certainty to secure the double bye, unless Minn or MSU wins out. (Mind you Minny has won 5 in a row as of now so that's possible.)

If we go 1-3 we will not be getting any double bye, and also will have dealt ourselves some uncertainty on selection Sunday.

I do agree with you Mike that we should be smallish favorites in the first 3 games (maybe slightly more @IL), and a small to moderate underdog against Purdue. 2-2 is likely the median outcome, anything better would be excellent.

 

[SmellyCat]

Can I just say how much I like that we're having this conversation on Feb. 20?

 

[mikewebb68]

Yeah this is all great stuff, thanks. I was also looking at the schedule. I came to the conclusion that 2-2 leaves us with about a 50/50 shot of getting the double bye -- basically Minn MSU each have two tough games left, but if either goes 3-1 they'd pass us due to tiebreak, or else if Mich runs the table with a win over us we could lose it. 3-1 and 12-6 would make us close to a certainty to secure the double bye, unless Minn or MSU wins out. (Mind you Minny has won 5 in a row as of now so that's possible.)

If we go 1-3 we will not be getting any double bye, and also will have dealt ourselves some uncertainty on selection Sunday.

I do agree with you Mike that we should be smallish favorites in the first 3 games (maybe slightly more @IL), and a small to moderate underdog against Purdue. 2-2 is likely the median outcome, anything better would be excellent.

Good post. The only thing I will mildly disagree with is the Minny steeak, as they have beaten questionable competition,; I can state with a fair degree of confidence that they will not win nine in a row, as they are underdogs to even make it 6 in a row. .

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

Thanks for breaking this down, Mike. Great post! I thought I point out one small thing.

And, though this doesn't matter for purposes of getting the double-bye,it is important to understand for tourney purposes that none of these team can damage our Kenpom all that much...

Pom's numbers (in some manner) are likely to become part of the selection committee's power metric(s) in the future, but that change won't take place until 2017-18, at the earliest. The reason I brought this up is because there are sizeable differences between the numbers for Indiana (45 Pom; 90 RPI) and Michigan (27 Pom; 55 RPI).

We still have to deal with RPI exclusively for one more season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/at-las...lly-embracing-advanced-metrics-193136189.html

 

[NURoseBowl]

Can I just say how much I like that we're having this conversation on Feb. 20?

DING DING DING!!! We have a winner!!!

 

[ricko6543211]

Good post. The only thing I will mildly disagree with is the Minny steeak, as they have beaten questionable competition,; I can state with a fair degree of confidence that they will not win nine in a row, as they are underdogs to even make it 6 in a row. .

oh i just meant that generally teams can win ~ 4 in a row in the B1G, not so much that they specifically would win 4 more straight. we ran off a streak of 5 earlier this season too. agreed both Minn and MSU have tough opponents mixed in though, so it won't be easy, but just saying 12-6 isn't a guarantee. we've seen Tom Izzo teams do far more unexpected things than that....

 

[mikewebb68]

Thanks for breaking this down, Mike. Great post! I thought I point out one small thing.



Pom's numbers (in some manner) are likely to become part of the selection committee's power metric(s) in the future, but that change won't take place until 2017-18, at the earliest. The reason I brought this up is because there are sizeable differences between the numbers for Indiana (45 Pom; 90 RPI) and Michigan (27 Pom; 55 RPI).

We still have to deal with RPI exclusively for one more season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/at-las...lly-embracing-advanced-metrics-193136189.html

Agreed, but I believe that the point remains valid that no losses the rest of the way are going to be all that damaging to any of our rankings, especially since the two weakest teams we play are on the road. The most damaging team would have been Rutgers, and now we are past that. And this excercise was primarily related to the double-bye chances at any rate.