I'd love to see AP do it, but usually one of these stamina longshots pulls off the win. Who is it going to be this year so I can place my bet accordingly?
The Belmont
- Thread starter KYBorn&Raised
- Start date
I have two bets.
$2 Exacta box 1. Mubtaahij
5. American Pharoah
8. Materiality $12
$2 Exacta box 3. Made From Lucky
6. Frosted
8. Materiality $12
I have Materiality in both, not exactly for the upset (he can), but I think he hits the Place spot. He had a rough trip in the derby, lost a shoe and still finished 6th.
Mubtaahij is a horse I liked in the Derby (bad idea), but I think this distance is his race. He had just got here from Dubai and had to adjust to the weather, track, and travel. He has had over a month, so he if ever is going to be that horse, and a threat (if I did my homework right) and dismiss the bad Derby showing as just that. His workouts have been real solid, if he has a clean trip, look out, lot of value with this horse. A little worried about his competition over there.
Made From Lucky has the bloodlines for the distance and is very fresh, could pull the upset as the closer.
Frosted arguably had one of the worst Derby trips ever, and still after all the bumping, boxing in, was closing. I dismiss that trip as a bad set up, with only 8 horses, he is the one to watch if AP misses on the triple crown. Horses by nature if the are a front runner, when passed by another horse, they tend to give up, thus the leaving AP out of the second exacta. If he does not win, I think he fades.
To be noted, I did not cash a ticket for the Derby, but did hit the 1,5 exacta for the Preakness. Cashed a $124.40 ticket. Not bad for a $12 bet. Not a professional handicapper, but I do really study and pay attention to the horses, definitely not a novice. One key to look for in playing exactas is watch the Tote board and look for value horses. Usually the best chances / payouts are finding 2 horses that can beat the favorite that are in a range from 4-1 to 8-1. The Public loves betting favorites and love betting long shots for the miracle ticket, in the middle is where value is. Find the horses that CAN win and most bettors are not betting down. Most novice bettors will not give Frosted a look after his derby run, the just look at finishing order.
$2 Exacta box 1. Mubtaahij
5. American Pharoah
8. Materiality $12
$2 Exacta box 3. Made From Lucky
6. Frosted
8. Materiality $12
I have Materiality in both, not exactly for the upset (he can), but I think he hits the Place spot. He had a rough trip in the derby, lost a shoe and still finished 6th.
Mubtaahij is a horse I liked in the Derby (bad idea), but I think this distance is his race. He had just got here from Dubai and had to adjust to the weather, track, and travel. He has had over a month, so he if ever is going to be that horse, and a threat (if I did my homework right) and dismiss the bad Derby showing as just that. His workouts have been real solid, if he has a clean trip, look out, lot of value with this horse. A little worried about his competition over there.
Made From Lucky has the bloodlines for the distance and is very fresh, could pull the upset as the closer.
Frosted arguably had one of the worst Derby trips ever, and still after all the bumping, boxing in, was closing. I dismiss that trip as a bad set up, with only 8 horses, he is the one to watch if AP misses on the triple crown. Horses by nature if the are a front runner, when passed by another horse, they tend to give up, thus the leaving AP out of the second exacta. If he does not win, I think he fades.
To be noted, I did not cash a ticket for the Derby, but did hit the 1,5 exacta for the Preakness. Cashed a $124.40 ticket. Not bad for a $12 bet. Not a professional handicapper, but I do really study and pay attention to the horses, definitely not a novice. One key to look for in playing exactas is watch the Tote board and look for value horses. Usually the best chances / payouts are finding 2 horses that can beat the favorite that are in a range from 4-1 to 8-1. The Public loves betting favorites and love betting long shots for the miracle ticket, in the middle is where value is. Find the horses that CAN win and most bettors are not betting down. Most novice bettors will not give Frosted a look after his derby run, the just look at finishing order.
I would like to see him win, but I can't stand baffert. Rest assured, if he wins he will speak as if he were the horse that won the race.
Article came out and the math geeks crunched the numbers and said he will not win today. Hope they are wrong.
Actually AP's breeding shows that he's not bred to go 1 1/4 mile but the way he won in the Preakness makes me think he wins this anyway.
I think it's bull crap that these chicken shat trainers set their horses out of the Preakness in hopes to spoil a Triple Crown bid at the Stakes.
IMO if the horse competes at the Derby then they should be required to take part in the Preakness also in order to do the third leg.
I hope American Pharoah wins for the same reasons I pulled for Big Brown and the horse from last year. They took part in all three races and it wasn't fair for the other owners to hold out in attempts at spoiling their shot.
IMO if the horse competes at the Derby then they should be required to take part in the Preakness also in order to do the third leg.
I hope American Pharoah wins for the same reasons I pulled for Big Brown and the horse from last year. They took part in all three races and it wasn't fair for the other owners to hold out in attempts at spoiling their shot.
When I worked at Keeneland they told me that's how it always used to be, and the change is why no one can win the Triple Crown anymore. Crying shame.
I did not get on AP in the Derby or the Preakness. I've probably made it impossible for AP to win the Triple Crown today, because I bought twelve (12) $2.00 WIN tickets on AP today -- a souvenir for each of my grandchildren in case he wins.
He may win but he really doesn't stack up with the greats. Secretariat is the first horse I remember watching. I realize no horse compares to him but his preakness time would have beaten AP by 11 lengths. Affirmed and Seattle Slew would have beaten him by about 8 lengths. In the Derby, Secretariat would have won by 7 lengths, Seattle Slew would have won by 1.5 lengths and Affirmed would have won by almost 4 lengths. I know every race is a little different, but the great horses have all performed much better. His derby time was 55th fastest, not too impressive. I usually root for a triple crown win, but I don't really want him to. It will be like UL winning the 13 NC. A mediocre team in a mediocre year. I want to see a super horse, who knows, maybe he'll prove it today.
I realize the race is over, I think, I'm at work and won't see the race til I get home.
I realize the race is over, I think, I'm at work and won't see the race til I get home.
Finally another triple crown winner but here's the real winner
Definitely a very good horse and was far better than any others around this year. But, I admit I was pulling against AP just because of his cruddy owner who has a very questionable background. Maybe that isn't that important but I just didn't care to see that owner become the one to break the 37 year drought. But, congrats to the best horse in 2015 and one of the best trainers.
Not sure you can count his Preakness time against him considering the track conditions. Today's Belmont time is 2nd only to secretariat if I heard the announcers correct. He just did something no other horse has done in 37 years, not sure the need downplay his accomplishments.
As someone who used to work around trainers at Churchill, Baffert is a lot better than some of them.
Great horse. 2nd fastest time ever.
Great horse. 2nd fastest time ever.
See, told ya so...
What's the questionable background of the owner? I don't know the story.
Major gambling debts that he refused to pay back totaling near $2 million. Was brought to court but dismissed only because the guy suing him had a lawyer who filed past the deadline which doesn't mean AP's owner was innocent, just lucky. It is a well known fact that he has a major gambling addiction which is never good when connected to sporting events. There may be more than that but that's the most recent news on him. They even mentioned him as a "controversial owner" after the race was over tonight.
Congratulations to the connections. Not a Baffert fan but the win is good for racing.
I guess running the 2nd fastest triple crown winning Belmont isn't good enough, either. (Faster than Affirmed). His time is also good enough for 6th in history at 2:26.65. Note the second fastest Belmont of all time is 2:26. And this horse had another gear left in the tank, as it wasn't even CLOSE at the end. Led from start to finish. I don't see one person on here comparing him to Secretariat. No horse has come close, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been other really good horses. (American Pharoah included)
So did Michael Jordan....who the flip cares? Anyone who follows up one of the greatest moments in sports in the last 30 years with..."yeah but his owner has a gambling problem" is a miserable arse.
Well thanks for such a miserable post and calling me an "arse". Don't see where that is called for at all. I did say in my original post that maybe this isn't even that important but it was something I had thought about all along and the reason I wasn't a fan of this owner. Why do you have such a problem with the opinion of another person and then relate it to Michael Jordan. Huh? Don't get that connection at all. I also stated and gave credit to the horse for being the best out there and deserving the win but you must have only focused only on my statement about the owner. Maybe you need reading comprehension lessons???
Thanks for answering my question. Sometimes you ask something and nobody helps.
Oh well, as you said, today is about AP.
Thank you, I guess the other poster calling me an arse missed the entire point of my original post. It is all about the horse today and his fantastic accomplishment.