The Bubble

[Goomlah]

The IHSA says there's 99 spots remaining: Well, let's break this down. 4 spots are left to the Chicago Conferences in the Public League (see my other post on this), leaving 95 spots remaining. Let's see all the 5-3 teams 1st. For sanity, I am not including the Chicago conferences and the points bubble will be really low since Soucie says so,...

All 69 5-3 teams In points order: Edited with Hubbard Win

Sycamore 46 plays 7-1 Sterling WIN-IN
Stevenson 46 plays 4-4 Mundelein WON-IN
Warren 45 plays 3-5 LZ LOST?-IN
Marist 44 plays 7-1 JCA LOST-IN
Solorio 43 plays 6-2 Morgan Park LOST- IN
Richards 43 plays 1-7 Oak Lawn WIN-IN
Glenbard S 42 plays 7-1 RB LOSS-IN
Cerro Gordo 41 plays 6-2 Maroa-Forsyth LOST 62-0 OUCH. STILL IN
Lyons 41 plays 3-5 York LOST-IN
Bartonville Limestone 40 plays 4-4 Pekin LOST-IN
St Teresa 40 plays 3-5 Warrensburg-Latham WON-IN
Dunlap 40 plays 3-5 Canton WIN-IN
Normal West 39 plays 2-6 Bloomington WON-IN
Grayslake N 39 plays 4-4 Woodstock N WON-IN
Crystal Lake S 39 plays 7-1 Cary Grove LOSS-IN
Princeville 38 plays 8-0 Stark County LOSS-IN
Trenton 38 plays 4-4 Carlyle WIN-IN
Bradley-Bour 38 plays 3-5 Andrew WIN-IN
Rockford Christian Life 38 plays 6-2 Deer Creek Mackinaw LOST-IN
St. Edward 37 plays 4-4 Elmwood Park WIN-IN
Kaneland 37 plays 3-5 Rochelle WIN-IN
Marion 37 plays 1-7 Rich South IN-Saturday
Belleville East 37 plays 3-5 Collinsville WIN-IN
Tolono Unity 36 plays 2-6 Carthage WIN-IN
Breese Central 36 plays 7-1 Herrin LOSS-IN
Knoxville 36 plays 3-5 Abingdon-Avon WIN-IN
Lake Forest 36 plays 3-5 Zion-Benton WIN-IN
Plainfield S 36 plays 6-2 Oswego LOST-IN
Farmington 36 plays 6-2 Rushville Industry LOST-IN
Decatur Eisenhower 35 plays 2-6 Springfield WON-IN
Fremd 35 plays 4-4 Schaumburg LOST-IN
Sullivan-Okaw Valley 35 plays 4-4 Clinton LOST-IN
Rockridge 35 plays 3-5 Kewanee WON-IN
Olney 35 plays 2-6 Casey Westfield WON-IN
Savanna West Carroll 35 plays 8-0 Lena-Winslow LOSS-IN
Leroy 35 plays 0-8 Colfax WIN-IN
Warren Coop 35 plays 4-4 Milledgeville WIN-IN
Quincy 35 plays 6-2 QND WIN-IN
Chatham Glenwood 35 plays 5-3 (35) Jacksonville Jacksonville won, BOTH IN
Hononegah 35 plays 4-4 Guilford WON-IN
Genoa-Kingston 35 plays 7-1 Richmond-Burton LOSS-IN
Belvidere 35 plays 1-7 Rockford East WIN-IN
Alton Marquette 34 plays 5-3 (32) Mt Olive ALTON WON-IN MT. Olive BUBBLE
Carterville 34 plays 0-8 Frankfort WIN-IN
Georgetown-Ridge Farm 34 plays 6-2 Westville LOST-IN
Johnston City 34 plays 5-3 (32) Fairfield JC WON-IN Fairfield BUBBLE
Auburn 34 plays 1-7 Pittsfield WIN-IN
Pleasant Plains 33 plays 4-4 Athens LOST-IN?
Herscher 33 plays 3-5 Streator WIN-IN
Wheaton Academy 33 plays 3-5 ACC WIN-IN
Hubbard 33 plays 4-4 Lane WIN-IN for sure
WV 33 plays 3-5 Wheaton North LOST-Still IN (I think?)
Oneida 33 plays 7-1 Kewanee LOST-BUBBLE
Hinsdale South 33 plays 3-5 Morton WON-IN
Centennial 32 plays 7-1 Central LOSS-BUBBLE
Winchester W-Central 31 plays 0-8 Beardstown WIN-IN
Hampshire 30 plays 2-6 Woodstock Got the WIN they needed, IN
El-Paso 30 plays 2-6 Heyworth WIN-IN
West Aurora 30 plays 3-5 Metea LOSS-BUBBLE
Deerfield 29 plays 0-8 Maine East WIN-IN
Sparta 28 plays 2-6 Red Bud Need to LOST-OUT ON POINTS
Oswego East 27 plays 1-7 Romeoville WIN-IN
Rolling Meadows 27 plays 4-4 Hersey WON-Conference Rep which eliminates Wheeling
Caitlin Salt-Fork 27 plays 1-7 Fithian WON-IN
Willowbrook 25 plays 3-5 Leyden LOSS-OUT ON POINTS
Vernon Hills 24 plays 1-7 Round Lake WON-IN

 

[GEPreps]

If 34 points is the cutoff for 5 win team, I would argue that West Aurora is already in and is assured five more points to add to their current 30 points with a loss.

1 point - from losing to Metea Valley
1 point - Glenbard East v Bartlett
1 point - West Chicago v South Elgin
1 point - Geneva d Larkin
1 point - Plainfield East d Plainfield Central
0 point - Elgin loss to St Charles North
0 point - Aurora East loss to St Charles North

 

[Goomlah]

Ok 69 5-3 teams. Leaving 26 spots left. UPDATED WITH CPS Games I will try to update this as much as possible Friday night.

The 75 4-4 Teams (plus the 1 3-5 team that can be a conference rep-I'll put it in With Hersey) and my predictions:

DLS 48 plays 7-1 Bishop Mac LOSS-OUT
TF South 45 plays 6-2 Tinley Park OT LOSS-OUT
LWC 45 plays 7-1 Thornton LOSS-OUT
Mercer County 44 plays 6-2 Monmouth United WON-IN
Hoffman Estates 42 plays 7-1 Barrington LOSS-OUT
Schaumburg 42 plays 5-3 Fremd WON-IN
Ignatius 41 plays 6-2 Depaul Prep WIN-IN
GBE 41 plays 4-4 (39) Bartlett BARTLETT WON FOR THE FRESHMAN
Erie Prophetstown 41 plays 6-2 Spring Valley Hall LOSS-OUT
Mattoon 41 plays 1-7 Jersey WIN-IN
Peru St Bede 41 plays 7-1 Sterling Newman LOSS-OUT
Decatur Lutheran 40 plays 3-5 Oblong WIN-IN
Carlyle 40 plays 5-3 Trenton Wesclin LOST-OUT
Lake Park 40 plays 7-1 Naperville Central LOSS-OUT
Prairie Central 40 plays 8-0 St. Joe's Ogden LOSS-OUT
O'Fallon 40 plays 3-5 ESL WIN by forfeit
Pekin 39 plays 5-3 Bartonville Limestone WON-IN
Momence 39 plays 4-4 (36) Clifton Central MOMENCE WON
Addison Trail 38 plays 8-0 GBW LOSS-OUT
Winnebago 38 plays 1-7 Mendota WIN-IN
Concord-Triopia 38 plays 7-1 Carrollton LOSS-OUT
Alden Hebron 38 plays 6-2 Westminster Christian Saturday
Wauconda 38 plays 1-7 North Chicago WON-IN
Belleville West 38 plays 1-7 Alton WIN-IN
Monmouth Roseville 38 plays 7-1 Monticello LOSS-OUT
Mahomet Seymour 37 plays 3-5 Effingham LOSS-OUT
Galesburg 4-4 37 plays 6-2 Canton, MI Saturday
Bolingbrook 37 plays 8-0 HF Well this I wasn't expecting-WIN IN
Coal City 37 plays 2-6 Seneca WIN-IN
Williamsville 37 plays 2-6 Riverton WIN-IN
North Boone 37 plays 8-0 Marengo LOSS-OUT
Milledgeville 37 plays 5-3 Warren Coop LOSS-OUT
Joliet West 37 plays 3-5 Lockport LOSS-OUT
Hillsboro 36 plays 8-0 Pana LOSS-OUT
Litchfield 36 plays 6-2 Carlinville LOSS-OUT
Woodstock North 36 plays 5-3 Grayslake North LOSS-OUT
Uplift 36 plays 6-2 Raby They lost 28-0 already, they LOST AGAIN-OUT
Athens 36 plays 5-3 Pleasant Plains WON-IN
Ashton Franklin 36 plays 6-2 Stockton LOSS-OUT
Vandalia 36 plays 3-5 Greenville LOSS-OUT
DGN 36 plays 1-7 PW WIN-IN
Flora 36 plays 4-4 (36) Red Hill RED HILL WON-IN
Guilford 36 plays 5-3 Hononegah LOSS-OUT
Freeport 36 plays 7-1 Auburn LOSS-OUT
Hillcrest 36 plays 7-1 Oak Forest LOSS-OUT
Tremont 35 plays 1-7 Flanagan WON-IN
Niles North 35 plays 3-5 Highland Park WON-IN
South Fulton 35 plays 7-1 Elmwood Brimfield LOSS-OUT
Hardin Calhoun 34 plays 8-0 Brown County WIN-IN
Shepard 34 plays 1-7 Bremen WON-IN
Ottawa 33 plays 3-5 Yorkville LOSS-OUT
Moline 33 plays 6-2 Normal Univ. WIN-IN
Hersey 33 plays 5-3 Rolling Meadows LOSS, Which Eliminates Wheeling-Hersey IN
Toledo Cumberland 33 plays 1-7 Arthur Lovington WIN-IN
Lane 33 plays 5-3 Hubbard LOST-OUT
Collins 33 plays 6-2 Simeon LOST-OUT
Camp Pt Central 33 plays 2-6 North Greene WIN-IN
Clinton 32 plays 5-3 Sullivan-Okaw Valley WIN-BUBBLE
St Francis 31 plays 3-5 Fenwick WON-BUBBLE
Mundelein 31 plays 5-3 Stevenson LOSS-OUT
TF North 31 plays 7-1 Lemont LOST-OUT (Sorry Edgy)
Peoria Heights 31 plays 0-8 Varna WIN-IN
Robeson 31 plays 6-2 King LOSS-OUT
Freeport Aquin 30 plays 0-8 South Beloit WIN-BUBBLE
Minooka 30 plays 6-2 PFN WIN-BUBBLE
Pinckneyville 29 plays 1-7 Dupo WIN-BUBBLE
Dwight Coop 29 plays 2-6 Argenta Oreana WIN-BUBBLE
Bureau Valley 28 plays 3-5 Morrison WIN-BUBBLE
Antioch 28 plays 2-6 Grant WIN-BUBBLE
Elmwood Park 27 plays 5-3 St. Edward LOSS-OUT
Bunker Hill 23 plays 2-6 Kincaid LOSS-OUT
Cuba North Fulton 22 plays 1-7 Havana Coop WIN-OUT ON POINTS

I have 34 4-4 teams that will win. Leaving 8 out. Jesus No wonder Why Soucie has the point cutoff so low. (Edit, goodness this is what I get for doing this at 12am)

 

[Goomlah]

If 34 points is the cutoff for 5 win team, I would argue that West Aurora is already in and is assured five more points to add to their current 30 points with a loss.

1 point - from losing to Metea Valley
1 point - Glenbard East v Bartlett
1 point - West Chicago v South Elgin
1 point - Geneva d Larkin
1 point - Plainfield East d Plainfield Central
0 point - Elgin loss to St Charles North
0 point - Aurora East loss to St Charles North

I said probably. I think you're right

 

[WDTT1215]

Great job!

 

[mchsalumni]

GBE 41 plays 4-4 (39) Bartlett Well, I guess someone has to win. I'll take Bartlett for the freshman

I see what you did there, and it made me lol.

 

[Goomlah]

I'm going to post the 3-5 teams as well just in case. There's 10 listed by the IHSA. Since I just looked at this the way this year is going it might get this far:

Macomb 48 plays 7-1 BCC LOSS
Fenwick 47 plays 4-4 St Francis LOST
York 47 plays 5-3 Lyons WON
Waterloo 43 plays 6-2 Breese Mater Dei LOSS
Collinsville 43 plays 5-3 Belleville East LOSS
Lake Zurich 43 plays 5-3 Warren LOSS
Yorkville 42 plays 4-4 Ottawa WIN
Fulton 42 plays 2-6 Amboy WIN
Brooks 41 plays 7-1 Curie LOST-OUT
ACC 41 plays 5-3 Wheaton Academy LOSS

 

[hdj all the way]

Thank you for doing this. Great job.

 

[oldfan123]

Lockport will beat Joliet West by at least 3 touchdowns.Shepard I hope avoids the upset and beats Bremen(forget the records.Bremen comes from the tougher conference) Those kids really have come on

 

[Goomlah]

Thank you for doing this. Great job.

No problem

 

[Goomlah]

Lockport will beat Joliet West by at least 3 touchdowns.Shepard I hope avoids the upset and beats Bremen(forget the records.Bremen comes from the tougher conference) Those kids really have come on

I'll take your word for it

 

[Goomlah]

Now it is officially 95 teams since the Chicago Conferences are officially locked up.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

Why do you think the playoff points are so low this year? Since 2008 it's gone up every year from 36 to 41, I believe. This year it's at 34, allegedly. Any reason to this rhyme? Or Rhyme to this reason?

 

[Goomlah]

Why do you think the playoff points are so low this year? Since 2008 it's gone up every year from 36 to 41, I believe. This year it's at 34, allegedly. Any reason to this rhyme? Or Rhyme to this reason?

None to be honest. Just how it is

 

[GEPreps]

Previous years with number of at large 5-4 qualifiers and minimum points :

2014 : 45 teams - 39 points
2013 : 48 teams - 36 points
2012: 40 teams - 38 points
2011: 35 teams - 40 points
2010: 46 teams - 39 points
2009: 38 teams - 38 points
2008: 55 teams - 36 points
2007: 65 teams - 36 points
2006: 51 teams - 38 points
2005: 63 teams - 35 points
2004: 59 teams - 37 points
2003: 51 teams - 32 points
2002: 46 teams - 28 points
2001: 54 teams - 34 points

 

[Goomlah]

Starting to update: God I'll be up all night.

 

[Goomlah]

Goodness This is a pain-5-3's are done

 

[Goomlah]

I have 9 teams out with 2 games remaining Saturday assuming my math is right.

 

[Goomlah]

And I think I can say which 9 teams as well, Sparta, Willowbrook, Cuba, Antioch, Bureau Valley, Dwight Coop, Pickneyville, Minooka, Freeport Aquin. SOUCIE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

 

[Goomlah]

I said there were 9 teams (for now) but they weren't all right:

Cuba North Fulton
Willowbrook
Bureau Valley
Antioch
Pinckneyville
Sparta
Dwight
Freeport Aquin
St. Francis

35 points is the cutoff and St. Francis has about the longest of waits possible if they win a tiebreaker. Catalyst Maria (who they beat) plays St. Joe's at 5:30 tonight (scheduling conflict with Elmhurst University). If Maria wins, it puts Francis on 35. There are 2 other games that affect the field: Galesburg playing Canton MI and Alden-Hebron playing Westminster Christian. EDIT: SINCE ST. FRANCIS DOESN'T WIN THE TIEBREAKER, THEY'RE OUT.

The teams on 35 points currently:
Clinton
Minooka
West Aurora
Peoria Heights
Toledo Cumberland