The General Consensus-MSU Preseason Predictions

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It seems like only yesterday that I got off the phone with Stallion4Tigaaahs, explaining to him how another West Championship and trip to Atlanta was inevitable, entering the 2001 season. Where have those heady days gone? Mississippi State is yet aGAIN wallowing in a sea of mediocrity the likes of which hasnt been seen since before the Jackie Sherrill era began here, and based on what this years team has to offer, things arent looking up. Lets have a look at the 2003 Bulldogs, and see if we can determine what progress, if any has been made.

Offense

First off, lets be honest. Neither of the quarterbacks competing for the starting job here would start at any other Western Division school. Kevin Fant, for all his hype, has done exactly nothing in his career here, save pile up yardage his sophomore season against two of the worst defenses in recent college football history. His record as a starter is an abysmal 3-11. And while it is true he took a pounding last year, even early in the season, he displayed poor decision making, forcing throws that werent there and not taking care of the ball when scrambling. Kyle York showed he had a better pocket presence than Fant, but aGAIN, he threw too many ill-advised passes, resulting in nearly three times as many picks as touchdowns. I feel it is safe to say this position is a liability for MSU.

The best MSU quarterback of the past 10 years is easily Wayne Madkin, and his success came from NOT forcing the issue, rather, making plays within himself, and keeping mistakes to a minimum. That is exactly what whoever lines up under center this year needs to do. If we have to start slinging the ball all over the field, it means were losing, and were forcing a position of limited talent to win games for us. The good teams Jackie has had here have been able to win games on the ground.

Luckily, MSU is blessed this year with a trio of solid running backs. Of the three, I feel it is Jerious Norwood who should be starting. (More on why Nick Turner isnt later.) He showed the kind of explosiveness and fluidity that can be a mainstay of any successful running attack last year. In the one game where he saw true feature back duty, he riddled the Kentucky defense for over 100 yards. The knock on Norwood is his lack of size, but he has the quickness and moves to go around and by would-be tacklers without them making solid contact. The Bulldogs would be well advised to scrap any notion of rotating tailbacks and concentrate on putting the ball in Norwoods hands 20-25 per game. Fred Reid is solid, but seems more suited to a third down/scatback role. He is even smaller than Norwood, so the idea of him pushing the pile on third and short doesnt work for me. Hes plenty quick, and has good hands. Reid could thrive in a Dave Meggett type role. If we simply must have a big running back, then lets throw true freshman Jason Jude in the mix. Hes built in that Kevin Bouie mold, not huge like a Michael Davis, but a solid 225 pounder. His question mark is how full a recovery he has made from a knee injury that cut short his high school playing days. At fullback, Darnell Jones has played well in his time here and transfer Nick Signaigo looks as though he was carved from granite. It will be interesting to see if those two can fill the void left by Justin Griffith. Neither is as good a receiver, so many of the safe dumpoffs #31 took in last year will have to go elsewhere.

If being a wide receiver were only about speed, MSU would boast three first round picks. However, the ability to catch the ball is a wideouts greatest attribute, and that, more than anything else, has derailed the MSU offense from its record setting 2000 days. Simply put, Justin Jenkins, Ray Ray Bivines, and Antonio Hargro have dropped more balls than any three receivers I have ever seen. Jenkins could have been first team All SEC if he had caught half of his drops the past two years. Each of those three brings something different to the table, Jenkins is smooth, with deceptive speed, Bivines is quick, able to change directions on a dime, and Hargro possesses freakish size for one so fast. Throw in Tee Milons and Brandon Wright, who showed a lot of promise in their true freshman seasons, and newcomer Will Prosser, and you have the kind of depth the two lines can only dream of. New wide receiver coach Guy Holliday needs to unravel the mystery that has been the dropped pass. If he can do so, the MSU offense could go from headache for us Bulldog fans to headache for opposing defensive coordinators. 2003 will mark the first year since 1999 that MSU will not line up Donald Lee at tight end to be ignored. This years candidate for Most Open Receiver Never Thrown To is Aaron Lumpkin, who has seen little playing time in his tenure here. Lumpkin has the tools, but is inexperienced. Judging by the past 12 years however, MSU could line up Tony Gonzales out there and he wouldnt get any looks, so as long as Lumpkins blocking stays up to snuff, he should be all right.

As it is with any offense, it all depends on the line, and saying last years line was horrible is insulting to horrible offensive lines everywhere. Injuries decimated the Bulldogs trenchmen last season, and even players who went the whole year healthy didnt play well. This season, MSU has fallen back in line with the rest of the college football world, and put the line under the tutelage of one position coach, Steve Campbell. And the starting five looks solid, with Richard Burch, Chris McNeil, Blake Jones, Brad Weathers, and Dave Stewart leading the charge, however, as of this writing, it looks as though McNeil will be tried at center, and the loser of the Jones/McNeil battle may not start. Only at MSU can a preseason Rimington Award nominee be threatened with losing his job, not to mention the fact that sitting the loser takes one of your best linemen out of the starting lineup. If anyone has any sense, the five guys I listed will start. Upper classmen Johnny Wadley, James Redmond, Will Rogers, and Avery House, along with redshirt freshmen Otis Riddley and Monte Collins will be called upon to provide depth, a concern with any team, but even more so here, with the transfer of the Thompson brothers and Donald Tucker, and subsequent dismissal of Manuel Dickson for academic issues. Freshman Donovan Davis may be asked to play early if the injury bug returns to MSU this fall. A Parade All American, Davis is massive, tipping the scales at nearly 340 pounds.

What MSU Will Do

Morris Watts is nothing if not experienced, and with that experience comes the foresight to adjust to your talent. At LSU, with the mobile Herb Tyler at QB and strong runners like Kevin Faulk and Rondell Mealey, Watts ran the ball more often than not, mixing powers and draws with the option, and throwing off play action. At Michigan State, blessed with future top 10 picks at wideout like Plaxico Burress and Charles Rogers, Watts threw deep, using his players superior skills to run wild through opposing secondaries. He also made use of bulldozing first rounder T.J. Duckett in his pro-style attack. So it would seem MSUs offense is in capable hands. It would seem, but it would be wrong. I, like a growing number of Bulldog fans, feel that the final play-calling ends up at JWS, hence the eerily similar offenses we have seen since Watson Brown left in 1992. Did anyone watch that Browns playoff game last year, with Kelly Holcomb slinging the ball to the tune of 400+ yards? That was Bruce Arians calling the plays, the same guy who was famous for the third and long draw here at MSU. I will be shocked to see any changes in the MSU philosophy, that is, run, run, play action, and start throwing a lot once youre down. I dont doubt Watts has the playbook to open it up, I doubt Jackie has the willingness to let him do it.

What the General Would Do

As previously stated, the deepest position on offense is wideout. So it seems to me the smart move is too put as many wideouts on the field as possible, in hopes one of them will finally catch a pass. I dont doubt Fants arm strength, and I think a quick fire passing game would suit him well. So I would be running a lot of three wide, single back, or three wide, no tight end, split back formations with Norwood and Reid, putting as much speed on the field as possible. I think State would be more successful with the quick hitting dives and traps, rather than the slower powers and isos, to take advantage of Norwoods initial burst of quickness. For the passing game, more slants, and slip screens, where our receivers can put their elusiveness to work for them. The leash has to be shorter for these drops; we have the depth to bench guys who cant hang on to the ball. Problem is, one drop, and you get to thinking about, and thats it. But God knows something must be done, team hypnosis anyone?

The Consensus

Youll know in the first drive if my hypothesis about play calling is correct. If we run it on third and +5, then Watts is nothing more than a figurehead. And if thats the case, then it means power running game for MSU, a style that clashes with the personnel. Didnt somebody get fired over something like that? As always, the line is key. I have faith in the starters, but guys like House and Rogers must finally justify their scholarship after 3 and 4 years respectively. If those two, plus the other backups can fill in and play well, then a weakness today becomes strength tomorrow. The X factor is the receivers; can they finally get past the mental stumbling block that making the catch has become? If so, then the Bulldog offense should be all right.

Defense

You would think that if you were 6 foot 7 inches tall, weighed 280 pounds, and ran the 40 in a time that makes tight ends jealous, that preseason accolades would pile up like ants on a Sunday picnic, but that has been the case for Tommy Kelly. An absolute freak of nature, he plays with the demeanor of your average choirboy, unable or unwilling to shed blocks, rush the passer, or clog running lanes. Unless he has a trust fund Im not aware of, this year Kelly will have to step it up if he wants the multi-million dollar reward of a NFL contract. He will line up at defensive end in new defensive coordinator Ron Coopers 4-2-5 scheme, looking to rejuvenate the Bulldog pass rush that got lost on the way to Oregon last season, and was never found. Hes joined by Ronald Fields, Willie Evans, and Kamau Jackson, pending an appeal to the NCAA over his eligibility. (Hint to MSU coaches, this sort of thing should be researched and taken care off earlier than 50 days before kickoff of his last season.) Evans and Fields both have shown promise, but Jacksons career has been a disappointment, partly due to a position shift from linebacker to lineman. Jackie spoke so highly of this guy at the 2000 Jackson signing day party, but like many others, the hype was never realized. (Jadice Moore) Lennie Day, Markell McKinley, Roosevelt Tate and true freshmen Corey Clark and Devrick Hampton will be among the first to see action as backups, as Cooper has promised to create a two deep rotation to minimize the effects the lack of depth is sure to cause. While talented, the only reserve with any previous playing experience is Day. The X factor here is Deljuan Robinson, returning from off season heart surgery. If hes at full speed, its another big body to shuffle in, and from all accounts, a damn talented football player.

Depth is less of a concern at linebacker, where all SEC candidates T.J. Mawhinney and Jason Clark lead the Bulldogs. However, one cant help but wonder if Clark is playing out of a position at the LB/DB hybrid spot, more commonly called a drop linebacker. If you are not familiar with that term, simply look at LSUs defensive stats from 1997-1999. They used a similar scheme to Coopers under Lou Tepper, and it was a disaster, with linebackers locked in man coverage with wide receivers. Somehow, the thought of Clark lined up on Michael Clayton, Decori Birmingham, Chris Collins, or either of Auburns Unpronounceables to me, isnt a good thing. Also looking to start is heralded sophomore Marvin Byrdsong, who may end up being the best of the three. As far as reserves, there are plenty of them, but they are mostly unproven, with Kenny Kern and Brandon Downing leading the way, along with a finally healthy Clarence McDougal. If McDougals play in the spring game was any indication, Clark may indeed move back inside. McDougal showed little effect from the devastating injury that kept him on the sidelines the past two years. If hes one hundred percent, it is a huge boost to an already strong position.

At this point, youre asking yourself, when is this guy going to talk about Nick Turner, so here it comes, the first really controversial thing in this report. It is my opinion that Nick Turner should be moved to cornerback. I just feel that we have enough depth at tailback to be safe there, and Turner and Norwood are such splendid athletes, that the effort must be made for both of them to see a lot of playing time. Turner was a fine DB in high school, and we can still put the ball in his hands in the return game. Face facts, we need to do something, because if were pinning our hopes on Slovakia Griffith, were in for a lot of long touchdown passes over his head. Hes just not suited to play corner. If worse comes to worse, we can always put Turner back on offense, or hell, let him try it both ways. Jackie always says he wants to put players in positions to make plays, this is a perfect example of how to do that. Take the guy who is by all accounts the best athlete you have, and turn him loose, offense, defense, special teams.

As for the rest of the secondary, its in solid hands. Darren Williams is one of the best young football players in America. Kevin Dockery has moved to strong safety, where his height wont be such a liability. His play was the most surprising of 2002, a guy most people wrote off as a tagalong with high school teammate Deljuan Robinson, who ends up entrenching himself as a starter. JUCO transfer Chris Swain adds depth, along with incoming JUCO safety Eric Fuller. The other corners are Odell Bradley (Official Favorite Player of the Six Pack) and Demetric Big Pimpin Wright. Wright returns after receiving a medical redshirt, and he has yet to display the form that made him a JUCO All American. Bradley didnt start any last year after falling down the depth chart due to injury. The Pack has faith in their boy to stay on top this year, but we have no idea how good he is. Remember the last time we didnt return a starting corner? That was 2001, not a banner year for pass defense here. Hope may arrive in the form of three true freshmen, Adrian Griffin, Jeramie Johnson, and Quentin Culberson, who will move from his high school position of safety. Culberson was MSUs most highly touted signee this past recruiting season, and looks to be able to contribute right away.

What MSU Will Do

The days of the sellout blitz on third and 23 are gone at MSU, long live zone coverage. Ron Cooper emphasizes a veritable boatload of schemes, to create the mismatch that leads to sacks and turnovers. And hes got some talent to work with. If Kelly could ever retrieve his head from his ***, he could be All-American. From the looks of him, John Blake may be the coach to do just that. The linebacking corp is deep, experienced, and talented. The secondary is weak at the corners and strong at safety, so look for the Bulldogs to emphasize a lot of zone, and to mix blitzes in more wisely than Joe Lee Dunn did. The one concern is Clark in coverage; hes got speed for a big man, but not enough to hang with wideouts and backs. Ill presume Cooper knows this, and wont make the same mistakes Lou Tepper did.

What the General Would Do

Just so I have this straight, our thinnest position is the D-line, our deepest is linebacker. Doesnt that just scream for a 3-4-4 defense? The linebacking corp of Byrdsong, Clark, Mawhinney, and McDougal sounds pretty fierce to me, although Clarence would need to bulk up, or one of the Clarksdale guys could step in. It allows a current starter, probably Kamau Jackson, to go to the bench from the line, artificially creating more depth. It also creates a better matchup for Willie Evans, whose quickness, currently negated against most tackles while he plays end, could be disruptive for centers. And of course, Turner at cornerback seems to answer a huge question we currently have.

The Consensus

This is the side of the ball with the most question marks. As of 1 month to kickoff, we dont know who will be starting at cornerback. It may come down to some incoming true freshman, which probably makes the like of Jimbo Fisher and Randy Sanders smile. Cooper was a hire I wasnt too high on, but seeing him on the practice field was enlightening. Hes intense, and I dont think hell tolerate a lot of the poor play we have seen. Thats a good thing, but its also a bad thing, as when he pulls a starter, for the most part, the guy backing him up hasnt played. We need that first 11 to come together and regain some of the respect MSU had just 3 seasons ago, or it will be a long autumn in Starkville.

Special Teams

Finally, a bright spotfor the most part. Brent Smith has erased the embarrassing memory of John Michael Marlin. (Is he still on scholarship? Why? Theyd pull me out of the stands to kick before him.) Jared Cook and Robert Wallis punted well for the most part, when not lining it directly into the arms of Derek Abney and Jason Armstead. And the Dogs have a motherlode of fleet footed would be returners. Special teams may get the shortest write-up, but its the strongest squad on the team.

What MSU Will Do

Not going to lie, after watching the Kentucky game last year, I have no idea what Jackie is going to do this year. Lets hope we learned some lessons. I know that if it comes down to a field goal, I feel confident with Brent Smith back there. As far as return men go, I would go with Turner, and since Ray Ray cant seem to catch catch the ball ball on passes, lets let him have a go on returns. After all, he only has one year left on JWS statement that he would break Tony James records.

What the General Would Do

What can you say here? Kick away from Abney, yes I would do that. Let Ray Ray and Turner return kicks, another good idea. Revoke John Michael Marlins scholarship, works for me. The players are in place on special teams to make this a definite strength area.

There was a time when I felt MSU could be less talented than their opponent and still win, so great was my faith in Jackie Sherrill. Now playing Troy State concerns me. It is ridiculous how this program has gone to hell, and the blame must be placed on the shoulders of the head coach. Say what you want, hes the man that the team and staff answer to. Theres no denying this is a make or break season for JWS. I simply dont see how the administration could keep him on after another losing season, especially with the NCAA in town. I dare say donations and season ticket sales would bottom out if 3 wins doesnt lead to a new coach.

That being said, only the most delusional Ole Miss fan could deny the fact that there is talent on this MSU team. It seems to be more a mental struggle then anything else. Look at the 1999 team. They knew how to win. This team doesnt, it hasnt learned how yet. What this team needs is to pull out a close game with Oregon, to instill that confidence that you get from coming from behind, from snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. I daresay that a game ending field goal by Brent Smith against the Ducks would go a long way towards making the end of the season more palatable.

So now its prediction time, Ill be returning week to week during the season to talk about each game, so lets just look at the season as a whole. To be honest, the past two years have eliminated any chance of me predicting a return to glory, so Im saying 4-8. Yes, that is how little faith I now have in Jackie Sherrill. Further, the only reason Im saying four wins is because of my personal unwillingness to predict an Egg Bowl defeat. I just dont see us taking advantage of our personnel on offense, and the lack of any proven corners is a huge problem. I just cant help but think that the 100th edition of the Battle for the Golden Egg will be the last time we see Jackie on the sidelines as head coach here. Hey Coach, make this internet hack happy, and prove me wrong

Until next week, where the column will be considerably shorter, this is the General. Dismissed.
 
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