The Key To PSU's Dominance...

[Wrestleknownothing]

I am about to reveal the secret sauce.

If you want to beat PSU earn higher seeds. Boom.

Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064).

The mistake everyone keeps making is letting PSU be the higher seed. When PSU is the higher seed under Sanderson they are 424 - 59 (87.8%). Of course the field is 4,064 - 3,658 when the higher seed (52.6%).

It is so simple, I am not sure why the other coaches haven't thought of it, just be the higher seed.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

I am about to reveal the secret sauce.

If you want to beat PSU earn higher seeds. Boom.

Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064).

The mistake everyone keeps making is letting PSU be the higher seed. When PSU is the higher seed under Sanderson they are 424 - 59 (87.8%). Of course the field is 4,064 - 3,658 when the higher seed (52.6%).

It is so simple, I am not sure why the other coaches haven't thought of it, just be the higher seed.

Are you, and not Willie Saylor, the true Seed King

 

[PSU Mike]

I am about to reveal the secret sauce.

If you want to beat PSU earn higher seeds. Boom.

Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064).

The mistake everyone keeps making is letting PSU be the higher seed. When PSU is the higher seed under Sanderson they are 424 - 59 (87.8%). Of course the field is 4,064 - 3,658 when the higher seed (52.6%).

It is so simple, I am not sure why the other coaches haven't thought of it, just be the higher seed.

I’m trying to re-do the math by breaking out Field’s results against PSU and not. Or are your Field records already the Field not against PSU?

 

[1995PSUGrad]

I am about to reveal the secret sauce.

If you want to beat PSU earn higher seeds. Boom.

Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064).

The mistake everyone keeps making is letting PSU be the higher seed. When PSU is the higher seed under Sanderson they are 424 - 59 (87.8%). Of course the field is 4,064 - 3,658 when the higher seed (52.6%).

It is so simple, I am not sure why the other coaches haven't thought of it, just be the higher seed.

So they win the matches they are supposed to win and don't win the matches they aren't supposed to win.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I’m trying to re-do the math by breaking out Field’s results against PSU and not. Or are your Field records already the Field not against PSU?

The field minus PSU, so non-PSU vs non-PSU only.

 

[PSU Mike]

The field minus PSU, so non-PSU vs non-PSU only.

ok

 

[Dogwelder]

… Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064). …

The post is funny. But is the premise even true? Or is it facetious? Are the numbers correct? I remember reading many times that even though Penn State has so many number one seeds, Penn State still exceeds its seeds, by some type of measure, better than anyone else.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Other coaches have the singular responsibility of bringing prepared competition to the arena for the PSU gladiators to dispatch for PSU fans' entertainment.

 

[AgSurfer]

Some very good advice for the statistically inclined person. For those who are not so good with statistics, there is another good approach to increase your chances of winning at the NCAA tournament - watch what Iowa does and do the opposite.

 

[SRATH]

I am about to reveal the secret sauce.

If you want to beat PSU earn higher seeds. Boom.

Under Cael Sanderson PSU is 73 - 91 at the NCAA tournament when they are the lower seed. That 44.5% win percentage is below the field win percentage for the lower seed (47.4%, 3,658 - 4,064).

The mistake everyone keeps making is letting PSU be the higher seed. When PSU is the higher seed under Sanderson they are 424 - 59 (87.8%). Of course the field is 4,064 - 3,658 when the higher seed (52.6%).

It is so simple, I am not sure why the other coaches haven't thought of it, just be the higher seed.

I say we create the 59 Club, so we can know for sure who hasn’t met the standard. It would be interesting to see which matches comprise the 59 and what that average gap is to the rest of the field.

Seriously, completely shocking stat. Cael wins 76.8% of the time, regardless of seed.

 

[Corby2]

I say we create the 59 Club, so we can know for sure who hasn’t met the standard. It would be interesting to see which matches comprise the 59 and what that average gap is to the rest of the field.

Seriously, completely shocking stat. Cael wins 76.8% of the time, regardless of seed.

I believe it's 80% 12 titles in 15 tournaments as a team. I know that's not what you were figuring but its impressive .
Career Cael is 12 for 18. Gable was 15 for 21.
So if Penn st wins the next 3 titles Cael will tie Gable at 15 for 21.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

I believe it's 80% 12 titles in 15 tournaments as a team. I know that's not what you were figuring but its impressive .
Career Cael is 12 for 18. Gable was 15 for 21.
So if Penn st wins the next 3 titles Cael will tie Gable at 15 for 21.

And Cael wasn’t figuratively born on 3rd base as a coach like Saint Dan was - I.e. handed the reins of a back-to-back championship team. In one instance he inherited the broken down jalopy driven by Troy Sunderland.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

The post is funny. But is the premise even true? Or is it facetious? Are the numbers correct? I remember reading many times that even though Penn State has so many number one seeds, Penn State still exceeds its seeds, by some type of measure, better than anyone else.

Both those things can be true at the same time because they measure different things. I showed individual match outcomes, you are referring to multiple match outcomes.

As for performance relative to seed it matters how you count. How do you assign a numerical value to unseeded wrestlers? What finish do you credit someone in the blood round? 9th? 12th? etc.

But, if you assume the midpoint of the range for both starting position and ending position when unknown, then yes, PSU outperforms it seed under Sanderson with an average seed of 6.9 and an average finish of 6.7.

Now here is the crazy stat, since 2010 when the #1 seed meets the #2 seed in the final, the #1 seed wins 67.6% of the time (25 - 12) when neither are from PSU. But when PSU is the #1 seed the win percentage jumps to 92.3% (12 -1).

 

[Corby2]

And Cael wasn’t figuratively born on 3rd base as a coach like Saint Dan was - I.e. handed the reins of a back-to-back championship team. In one instance he inherited the broken down jalopy driven by Troy Sunderland.

And I was posting about how impressive his career has been. And you gotta make it a negative congratulations for winning the di*k of the day award. It's early in the day but I think you got this

 

[Cali_Nittany1]

And Cael wasn’t figuratively born on 3rd base as a coach like Saint Dan was - I.e. handed the reins of a back-to-back championship team. In one instance he inherited the broken down jalopy driven by Troy Sunderland.

Don't forget that Gable was an assistant coach under Kurdelmeier. The Hawkeyes were not a major wrestling power with 0 championships before Kurdelmeier/Gable. Gable wasn't "born on 3rd base". He was instrumental in establishing Iowa as a powerhouse with Kurdelmeier.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Some very good advice for the statistically inclined person. For those who are not so good with statistics, there is another good approach to increase your chances of winning at the NCAA tournament - watch what Iowa does and do the opposite.

Or as my dad used to say about my swimming, if I want to do better I should swim faster. He would then leave me to work out the details.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Don't forget that Gable was an assistant coach under Kurdelmeier. The Hawkeyes were not a major wrestling power with 0 championships before Kurdelmeier/Gable. Gable wasn't "born on 3rd base". He was instrumental in establishing Iowa as a powerhouse with Kurdelmeier.

Oh, that is duly noted. Dan was probably the driving force behind the in-state/out-of-state scholarship calculation magic that acted like a fuel injector for their rise to powerhouse status.

 

[shotofespresso]

I believe it's 80% 12 titles in 15 tournaments as a team. I know that's not what you were figuring but its impressive .
Career Cael is 12 for 18. Gable was 15 for 21.
So if Penn st wins the next 3 titles Cael will tie Gable at 15 for 21.

Isn’t it 12 titles in the past 14 tournaments (or 12 titles in the last 15 years as there was no tournament in 2020)?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Trivia question related to my above post.

Without looking it up, can you name the sole PSU #1 seeded wrestler in the Sanderson Era who lost in the final to a #2 seed?

I could not. I had to look it up.

 

[AgSurfer]

I say we create the 59 Club, so we can know for sure who hasn’t met the standard. It would be interesting to see which matches comprise the 59 and what that average gap is to the rest of the field.

Seriously, completely shocking stat. Cael wins 76.8% of the time, regardless of seed.

Splitting hairs here, but Cael won 100% of the time. Let's give everyone credit - the Penn State team led by Cael wins 76.8% of the time.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Trivia question related to my above post.

Without looking it up, can you name the sole PSU #1 seeded wrestler in the Sanderson Era who lost in the final to a #2 seed?

I could not. I had to look it up.

I’m going to go McIntosh-Cox, but not sure if Cox was #2 or 3

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

And I was posting about how impressive his career has been. And you gotta make it a negative congratulations for winning the di*k of the day award. It's early in the day but I think you got this

If my post was that upsetting to you, you should probably avoid Hawkeye Report - they’re real meanies over in the cesspool

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I’m going to go McIntosh-Cox, but not sure if Cox was #2 or 3

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

 

[Corby2]

Don't forget that Gable was an assistant coach under Kurdelmeier. The Hawkeyes were not a major wrestling power with 0 championships before Kurdelmeier/Gable. Gable wasn't "born on 3rd base". He was instrumental in establishing Iowa as a powerhouse with Kurdelmeier.

Don't let the facts get in the way. He obviously doesn't know Iowa wasn't good in the 60s and early 70s

 

[Corby2]

Isn’t it 12 titles in the past 14 tournaments (or 12 titles in the last 15 years as there was no tournament in 2020)?

He was hired in April 2009. They didn't win in 2010 (9th) , 2015 (6th) or 2021(2nd) . And no tournament in 2020 which wasn't counted. They've won 4 in a row 3 different times

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Don't let the facts get in the way. He obviously doesn't know Iowa wasn't good in the 60s and early 70s

I did know that (the Cyclones were king of the state at that time) and I also know their fan base was putrid at the time (worse than ours during our doldrums).

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

That match was frustrating as Cox was just an impenetrable brick wall on defense. MM was a fun big man to watch - one of the very few with wins against both Snyder and JDen

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Are you, and not Willie Saylor, the true Seed King

Wille Saylor? Short, bald guy, lip full of chaw? Nope, never heard of him.

 

[PUR158]

So they win the matches they are supposed to win and don't win the matches they aren't supposed to win.

So just like James Franklin then...win the games you are supposed to.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Some very good advice for the statistically inclined person. For those who are not so good with statistics, there is another good approach to increase your chances of winning at the NCAA tournament - watch what Iowa does and do the opposite.

So, you mean use a purple shoe to demonstrate from the bench instead of a yellow shoe?

 

[El_Jefe]

That match was frustrating as Cox was just an impenetrable brick wall on defense. MM was a fun big man to watch - one of the very few with wins against both Snyder and JDen

The only one in folk and probably none in free -- and he beat them both in a 2-week stretch, Snyder at B10s and Cox at NCAAs.

That loss to Cox in his SR finals was so hard to take. He's the one guy on the team who never got a title, that you wish had.

 

[Goggles Paisano]

The key to our dominance?



You have to admit there is a resemblance.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

The key to dominance is easy, all you need to do is get one of the greatest wrestlers if not the greatest wrestler of all time who happens to be potentially the greatest coach of all time and hire him. Then he proceeds to train people up along with getting the best wrestlers to come to their program.
It's a simple procedure to follow.

 

[Dogwelder]

… Now here is the crazy stat, since 2010 when the #1 seed meets the #2 seed in the final, the #1 seed wins 67.6% of the time (25 - 12) when neither are from PSU. But when PSU is the #1 seed the win percentage jumps to 92.3% (12 -1).

An even crazier stat is that when the #1 seed meets the #2 seed in the semifinal, the #2 seed wins infinity % of the time whether either wrestler is from from PSU or not!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

An even crazier stat is that when the #1 seed meets the #2 seed in the semifinal, the #2 seed wins infinity % of the time whether either wrestler is from from PSU or not!

I know that sounded funny, but when I was putting this together I was coming up with some contradictory numbers. Then it hit me, the #1 can also meet the #2 on the backside.

That has happened to a PSU wrestler three times in the Sanderson era, and two of those were just last year. Lilledahl beat Ramos in the third place match and Kasak beat Shapiro in the consi semi. The third one is related to my earlier trivia question.

McIntosh beat Cox in the consi semi (2015) the year before losing to him in the final (2016). In both instances the #2 knocked off the #1.

 

[manatree]

Are you, and not Willie Saylor, the true Seed King

You must be a city slicker. DeKalb is the true seed king.

 

[Corby2]

You must be a city slicker. DeKalb is the true seed king.

Grew up in DeKalb county no better soil in America.

 

[AgSurfer]

How about the opposite - the key to NOT gaining dominance. One way is to con recruits into joining your program, which at one point in the past was the dominant program, and then retrain them to wrestle only your style, even if it doesn't suit their particular abilities. Then you put them through brutal practices where they begin to develop a series of injuries that hamper their ability to compete. Along with this, you let a loud mouthed outsider with money to burn come in and displace wrestlers that you've recruited with mercenaries who are bribed to join the program. Then, you subject those same mercenaries to the same brutal training so that their usefulness is very limited. Adhering to this formula will guarantee not putting wrestlers with good potential at the top of the podium in March.

 

[Corby2]

How about the opposite - the key to NOT gaining dominance. One way is to con recruits into joining your program, which at one point in the past was the dominant program, and then retrain them to wrestle only your style, even if it doesn't suit their particular abilities. Then you put them through brutal practices where they begin to develop a series of injuries that hamper their ability to compete. Along with this, you let a loud mouthed outsider with money to burn come in and displace wrestlers that you've recruited with mercenaries who are bribed to join the program. Then, you subject those same mercenaries to the same brutal training so that their usefulness is very limited. Adhering to this formula will guarantee not putting wrestlers with good potential at the top of the podium in March.

When you bring other athletes in those there have a choice to make. Just like Ryder and Beard that's what has been said here . But it's only a negative when others do it . The job of the staff is to get the best guys possible. And that happens at Penn st and Iowa as well as many other places. Not sure why Iowa is still on your mind after winning 12 titles in 15 years but here we are .

 

[El_Jefe]

When you bring other athletes in those there have a choice to make. Just like Ryder and Beard that's what has been said here . But it's only a negative when others do it . The job of the staff is to get the best guys possible. And that happens at Penn st and Iowa as well as many other places. Not sure why Iowa is still on your mind after winning 12 titles in 15 years but here we are .

At this point, I assume 83% of the Iowa posts are experiments to see how quickly you'll jump in.