The number is 4.
- Thread starter CTStall
- Start date
I was going to but thought the on point play would add some intrigue. If you would bet the point it certainly would pay better odds. Probably double odds.
on this board (83% PSU fans) maybe should have made it 5... at 4 I am instantly taking the over, 5 would make me think a little more
Over for me 6 champs I think. 7 #1 seeds and Blaze. Chance at 8. Over/under 5.5 would be the # I think
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How could you possibly be the number? There are no co-champions to my recollection.
Over. I think 6 but would not be surprised by 7.
I wrote it fuc*ed up no worries
4 is my number for PSU Champs.
You have 3 plays.
Under
Over
On Point(4). Editouble Odds
Well,, What's your play??
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You guys are all forgetting that we need 8 or else we’re doomed.
Four is a pretty good number. How many times in history have teams had 4 champs? How many did we have last year?
Even if you’re a solid favorite, it’s not a slam dunk. As good as we’ve been over this run, we’ve had our share of #1s not win. I would venture if we took our hit rate for #1 seeds and multiplied it by 7, it would fall between 4 and 5. Now Marcus could add to that (maybe .25?), but Cole and Braeden aren’t.
Very, very low chance that we end up with 7 and not much higher for 6. A chance, but not likely at all. Hope people temper their reactions if that’s the case.
Even if you’re a solid favorite, it’s not a slam dunk. As good as we’ve been over this run, we’ve had our share of #1s not win. I would venture if we took our hit rate for #1 seeds and multiplied it by 7, it would fall between 4 and 5. Now Marcus could add to that (maybe .25?), but Cole and Braeden aren’t.
Very, very low chance that we end up with 7 and not much higher for 6. A chance, but not likely at all. Hope people temper their reactions if that’s the case.
All 10!!!
Yes, I were Blue/White glasses all day during the winter season.
Yes, I were Blue/White glasses all day during the winter season.
I’ll take the double odds and say on point.4 is my number for PSU Champs.
You have 3 plays.
Under
Over
On Point(4). Edit
Well,, What's your play??
Hate getting older , the mind is the second thing that goes. Duke is a lock
When you factor in injuries, you can’t really have anybody higher than 90% to win a championship.
Let’s give Mitch 90
Barr - I think he may be as likely as Mitch, but nobody has seen him wrestle Novak(who is really long) and Elam yet, so 80 at best
Levi has been in 2 tight matches with Minto this year, plus Karchla with maybe a 10% chance - 70 at best
SVN from quarters on he will face threats. Navigating all 3 successfully is probably 50/50 ( he just beat McNeil 11-10, and needed a late stall call to avert another loss). 50 is generous.
Luke has Peterson who has a 10% chance, Seymour, Spratley or Robinson who might be able to take 1 in 3 or 4 and then could face a couple of guys who took him to OT in the finals. I’ll give him 50 even though that’s too high statistically.
PJ - hard to tell but it’s not 50%. Too many unknowns Shapiro, Larkin, and he’s already taken a loss to the field. 40.
Rocco is 50/50 if he makes the finals. He’s not 100% to make them. 35 at best.
Marcus - no way he is higher than 25% to win.
All those numbers are probably generous statistically, yet they tell us that the most likely number of champs we end up with is 4. Anything more will be outstanding and even claiming 4 will be an achievement and will likely see us breaking the scoring record.
Let’s give Mitch 90
Barr - I think he may be as likely as Mitch, but nobody has seen him wrestle Novak(who is really long) and Elam yet, so 80 at best
Levi has been in 2 tight matches with Minto this year, plus Karchla with maybe a 10% chance - 70 at best
SVN from quarters on he will face threats. Navigating all 3 successfully is probably 50/50 ( he just beat McNeil 11-10, and needed a late stall call to avert another loss). 50 is generous.
Luke has Peterson who has a 10% chance, Seymour, Spratley or Robinson who might be able to take 1 in 3 or 4 and then could face a couple of guys who took him to OT in the finals. I’ll give him 50 even though that’s too high statistically.
PJ - hard to tell but it’s not 50%. Too many unknowns Shapiro, Larkin, and he’s already taken a loss to the field. 40.
Rocco is 50/50 if he makes the finals. He’s not 100% to make them. 35 at best.
Marcus - no way he is higher than 25% to win.
All those numbers are probably generous statistically, yet they tell us that the most likely number of champs we end up with is 4. Anything more will be outstanding and even claiming 4 will be an achievement and will likely see us breaking the scoring record.
Over.4 is my number for PSU Champs.
You have 3 plays.
Under
Over
On Point(4). Edit
Well,, What's your play??
I think the team wins 165,174, 197 pretty certainly.
I like the chance of winning 2 of Luke, Blaze, SVN, Duke, Rocco better than any other likelihood among those 5.
I always hated reading and writing as I have gotten older I don't care at all and never proofreadYou do that a lot!
. Sometimes I go back and read what I wrote when someone replies and I am like wtf did I do there 
Over. No brainer.4 is my number for PSU Champs.
You have 3 plays.
Under
Over
On Point(4). Edit
Well,, What's your play??
Where did you come up with your odds? Bookies in Vegas see things totally different than you.
Thank you for the reverse jinx, Dice! By pretending to be a wimpy pessimist, you are ensuring at least 7 champs!
