The number is 4.
- Thread starter CTStall
- Start date
Hey dice, your post is right on, historically speaking, though PSU's performance during the Cael years is better than the average.
From 1979 to Present;
-- 4 times in 46 years, the winning team had exactly 4 individual champions
-- 5 times in 46 years, the winning team had exactly 5 individual champions
-- Once, in 2021, the team runner-up had exactly 4 individual champions
-- From 1979 to present, the #1 seed wins a national championship 53% of the time
-- PSU has had 30 #1 seeds during the Cael years. 23 (77%) won an individual championship, 4 came in 2nd, 2 came in 3rd, and 1 DNP.
You are not being paid true odds by Vegas. You are being paid less otherwise they couldn’t make money. And the vig is higher on low volume betting action like college wrestling.
Also, Luke is now paying out like 50/50, when he started out as guy with a 33% chance to win. People bet the payout down but the opening odds were likely more in line with reality. Vegas is currently paying people to bet the field (giving them a bigger payout) so they can even up the money. People like to bet favorites. Vegas likes when favorites lose (mostly).
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So, the average team crowns about 3.5 champions with 7 #1 seeds and we are more like 5. Although you would think at some point we may see regression towards the norm. Maybe.
I say this years team is special and will keep widening the gap. 6 for sure I'm saying
I would love to take 90% of the guys on this site’s bets but then I wouldn’t be able to root for 8 champs when I’m in Cleveland.We need Dice to put out lines.
Hopefully we defy what the stats say again this year.
If the expected number is 5, 6 may not be such a long shot. But not easy even for this year’s team.
I was told there would be no math when I became a wrestling fan, I’ll wear my blue and white glasses and go with the over
Over under for me is 5.5.
I'm taking the over and guessing 6.
I'm taking the over and guessing 6.
we need someone to outperform their seed... I vote for Marcus as a champ!
Let's say all 7 top seeds plus Blaze makes it to semis.
We go 6-2 in semis and 4-2 in finals. That is tremendous winning percentage against the best in the country.
To go to the next level with some basic understanding of how good the competition will be late Friday and Saturday they would have to go 7-1 and then maybe 6-1. Possible but probably not practical.
Maybe somewhere in between those 2 hypotheticals.
We go 6-2 in semis and 4-2 in finals. That is tremendous winning percentage against the best in the country.
To go to the next level with some basic understanding of how good the competition will be late Friday and Saturday they would have to go 7-1 and then maybe 6-1. Possible but probably not practical.
Maybe somewhere in between those 2 hypotheticals.
He musta got it.
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I like this guys' way of thinking. Getting 8 to the semis is incredible. Sending 6 to the finals and 4 winning is awesome. People need to understand that a majority of this team is YOUNG. Let that marinate for a bit.
I'm going with Luke, PJ, Messenbrink, and Barr. I give Haines and SVN 50% chance and Rocco 25%. Blaze is 10%. I like to keep my expectations low and be pleasantly surprised when they are exceeded.
Not so sure about that ... 6-2 in semis will mean the title is clinched possibly Friday night, but definitely before the finals even start.
True. Still see it leading to a freak out for some.
Realism and logic on a board of the rabid. I like it. Four champs and a few more top 3’s will be a fabulous week. Injuries, cradles, a single misstep, and every opponent on their own vision quest make no one a lock, and each title precious. Is it Thursday yet?
This. Wouldn't bet against him, but Haines has had a pair of nail-biters with Minto and Karchla has a puncher's chance. SVN has had to come back late on several guys who shouldn't be in his league and was not impressive overall at Big-10s - nobody should beat him, but could see him make an early mistake (against literally anyone in the field) that he can't come back from. 184 and 133 are anybody's game. There are four elite guys at 184 - two of whom I'd argue are, right now, more talented wrestlers than Rocco (his advantage is inside his head) - any of whom could win on any given day. Blaze hasn't gotten remotely close to taking down Davino in 20 minutes on the mat this year, Seidel is no pushover, and Larkin could surprise some people...then there is Forrest.
Call me a troll, IMO low of 3 and high of 7; I'm sticking to 4, with 9 AAs and another landslide team championship. I wait for this weekend all year; it's my bday weekend and we have my best friend coming over Saturday with his family for a BBQ.
Fair point. But what about if we factor in that Columbus is a long, 2+ hours bus ride from Cleveland? So that’s one less team for us to worry about. If we do the similar factoring for every team, I think we can get the numbers to 99%.
Bunch of pessimistic puusies. 8 champs,10 AAs, 200 points, championship #14, 5th in a row, 3rd in a row setting teams scoring record!
Coach of the Year: Anybody not named Cael (too many accolades rule).
Wrestler of the Year: Jessie Mendez (too many Penn State accomplishments rule)
Freshman of the Year: Ben Davino (despite Blaze and Duke winning Davino wins award based on most exciting semi-final loss to Blaze) (see above Penn State accomplishments rule).
Coach of the Year: Anybody not named Cael (too many accolades rule).
Wrestler of the Year: Jessie Mendez (too many Penn State accomplishments rule)
Freshman of the Year: Ben Davino (despite Blaze and Duke winning Davino wins award based on most exciting semi-final loss to Blaze) (see above Penn State accomplishments rule).
Think this link fits this thread at least somewhat well. Predictions coming tonight:
www.on3.com
Key questions for Penn State wrestlers heading into NCAAs: Breaking down who's a lock and more at 165-285 pounds
Penn State wrestling heads to NCAAs this week with seven No. 1 seeds. Four of them are in the final five weight classes.
Mine is light grey'ed out, not available. For some reason I can only access the three dots but not any options they give either.
Barr and Mitchell I would put above 80 percents odds. Why? Because you never know.
Anyone else would be nice to see crowned as champ, but all have tough competition.
I cant think that what happened at bigs could happen again. Taylor davino mcilleny, etc are tough outs.
Anyone else would be nice to see crowned as champ, but all have tough competition.
I cant think that what happened at bigs could happen again. Taylor davino mcilleny, etc are tough outs.
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Or hit the 3 dots located to the right of that icon and then select gif. You can punch in what you are looking for then hit the gif and it will pop up
My predictions. There is a separate thread with the audio/video podcast version of this written article, but I'll also link them below.
www.on3.com
Penn State predictions for the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships: Will the Lions have a record number of champs?
Penn State wrestlers look to become the first team to ever have seven champions at NCAAs. Will they do it? Here are our predictions.
New BWI wrestling show links:
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The last time NCAA’S were in Cleveland…every #1 & #3 seed for PSU won a title 