The Path to a Bowl Game
- Thread starter ok-cats-computer
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I think UK can still get to a bowl game, but the margin of error got alot smaller. No doubt UK should have held on to the lead against USM, the defense had a huge letdown. But it wasn't just the defense, the offense didn't score again after scoring 35 in less than a half, so it was a total team letdown, not just a defensive letdown.
But after watching this weekend, the only team on the schedule that looks out of reach is Bama. UT looked pretty bad in a win, USC didn't look like world beaters against Vandy in their win, poor offensive showing, UF was in trouble against UMass for 3 quarters, UGA won but it wasn't anything overwhelming but most UGA fans were happy with the win. Vandy looked punchless against USC, Missouri and MSST both looked bad in losses. UL looked pretty good in a bad game, but that's what good teams are suppose to do to bad teams.. Overall, SEC looked to have 1 great team, 3-4 decent teams and the rest lumped in a group below that. SEC East doesn't look very good again this year and 4 of the West teams lost their opener, wasn't a good opening weekend for the SEC, 7-7.
But after watching this weekend, the only team on the schedule that looks out of reach is Bama. UT looked pretty bad in a win, USC didn't look like world beaters against Vandy in their win, poor offensive showing, UF was in trouble against UMass for 3 quarters, UGA won but it wasn't anything overwhelming but most UGA fans were happy with the win. Vandy looked punchless against USC, Missouri and MSST both looked bad in losses. UL looked pretty good in a bad game, but that's what good teams are suppose to do to bad teams.. Overall, SEC looked to have 1 great team, 3-4 decent teams and the rest lumped in a group below that. SEC East doesn't look very good again this year and 4 of the West teams lost their opener, wasn't a good opening weekend for the SEC, 7-7.
A good portion of the emotional overreaction to the Southern Miss game is coming from people who didn't listen when we tried to warn them. Many were predicting a blowout. Many kept saying Nick Mullens is overrated. But every credible expert rated Southern Miss above Kentucky in national ratings. I said on numerous threads that Kentucky could not get into a shootout with Mullens. In order to win, Kentucky needed a credible running game and an effective pass rush. When the Vegas betting line plunged from 6.5 to 3.5 on Saturday morning, that was the smart money coming in. So the loss to Southern Miss should not surprise anyone. Kentucky still has a path to a bowl, but we can't get there without significant defensive improvement and better offensive game planning. Our lines are still not up to SEC standards. Unless Lamar Jackson breaks his leg, I don't honestly see us having a reasonable chance to beat Louisville at their place. People talking about beating Tennessee and Florida don't understand how poorly we match up with those teams. To win 6, we need to beat New Mexico State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vandy, Austin Peay. I don't believe our team can beat Missouri in Columbia, because Missouri still has a great defensive line and an effective pass rush. But it isn't completely impossible.
This path to the Larry's Seed and Feed Auto Parts Bowl:
To qualify for a bowl game, UK will have to play better football and win enough games.
To qualify for a bowl game, UK will have to play better football and win enough games.
Spot on analysis. People every year hate on the SEC and say how overrated it is but they just might have a point this year, if the first weekend of the season is any real indicator. We'll see how things develop as the season moves along. As for UK's margin of error getting much smaller for making a bowl game, that's an understatement. I just don't see us recovering well from losing a 35-10 lead against an inferior opponent, don't see us going to a bowl game at all this year.
Simple in theory, but very difficult in reality considering our play and what is ahead on our schedule. I sincerely hope that our team proves me wrong.
I hate having to depend on beating Louisville for the 6th win...that has not worked out the last 2 yrs...the rest I agree with expect for beating MSU...that will be tricky! I still think somewhere there is 6 wins available!
on
Everyone understands the path to 6 wins just got narrower. Aside from that, I guess I am mainly on the other side of this debate. Granted, this might not be a historically great year for the SEC. But it is probably not realistic to think a team with Kentucky's weaknesses on both lines can beat Tennessee or Florida on the road just because those teams had some kinks to work out in week #1. I won't be shocked if Kentucky gets to 6 wins by beating New Mexico State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vandy, Austin Peay. But I don't expect that. Missouri will be tougher in Columbia than people think. Before the season started, I said on numerous threads that we don't have enough defensive athletes on our front 7 to get to a bowl this year. I tried to explain why 2017 should be Stoops' best season. But people kept responding with emotional BS about Southern Miss being overrated and how good Courtney Miggins is. Now, our team's fundamental shortcomings are out there and can't be denied. We will get better, but so will everyone else. To win, you still have to block and tackle just like Coach Claiborne taught me. This team doesn't do those things very well.
No way UK should schedule anyone in the top 200 in FB at this point. We need 4 winnable games + SEC maybes to have any chance at bowl for now.
The most likely way for this team to get to a bowl game is to buy tickets to the game of their choice. We have zero margin for error at this point, and I don't trust us to be perfect from this point on.
This post makes the most sense - these 4 teams mentioned are our best shot at 4 SEC wins. Only downside - even in the Brooks era (the golden age), 3-5 was our best SEC record.
The path to a bowl game is play 12 games, wash and dry the uniforms and turn on the tv. That is the only bowl game available at this moment. No game is a gimme with the current talent.
Plus, how many times have we 'caught a break' with a starting TB or QB going down, only to have their backup put up career numbers? It's what we do...
I always appreciate your posts Grumpy. You're one of the best fans from another team that posts on this board. I really don't think we have any chance against Gerogia this year. Assuming Chubb has made a full recovery, I suspect we won't have any answer for him. While I think it is still possible for the Cats to make a bowl, I'm not considering a possible win against Georgia in my projections.
Also, I'm glad that Georgia beat UNCheats this weekend. I hate the Tarheels.
But you still only have a sample size of 1 for the current test group. What happened in 2006 means jack squat. Doesn't matter that it happened here in Lexington and it doesn't matter that it happened here with Brooks. That outcome has zero to do with this group's future outcome.
If you want to hope based on the sample of 1 go ahead. But what most of us saw was pure garbage and we'll be holding out for more data. At least till Saturday when the sample size doubles itself.
The arrogance of any UK fan suggesting we can go to Louisville and win is humorous. You need to just put UL in with FL, UT, AL, and UGA in the ain't gonna happen area. That means we have to go 6-0 in the other 6, including 4-0 in swing games against other crappy SEC teams.
Hope is still alive! MSU looked like garbage against Auburn today. I really think we get win number 4 in two weeks. We beat MSU, and the games against Mizzou and Austin Peay are all we need to get to a bowl. The path to a bowl is actually a lot clearer than I thought it would be after the Southern Miss game.