The question now is does Mississippi
- Thread starter CalNaughtonJr.sixpack
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Cains Major
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cutbaitdawg said:
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If we win 2 games (UGA and UK), we're most likely in. If we win 3 (UGA, UK, and likely MSU), then we're definitely in. We don't have to win the tourney to get in.
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Cains Major
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...but, you are the one who doesnt know what she is talking about. Ole Mis is most likely NIT bound. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
cutbaitdawg said:
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I think we're NIT bound as well, but I think that's because we'll choke in the SEC tourney. But if we win 2 games in the SEC tourney, then we'll be in. If we go 2-1 in the SEC Tourney, we'll be 23-10 with an RPI in the low 40s or high 30s. 23 wins and a Top 50 RPI would likely be enough. 24 wins would definitely be enough. So no, we don't have to win the SEC tourney.
As I said before though, you won't have to worry about it though, because we'll choke before we win 2 games, which will mean NIT.
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No we arent competing for a spot but Ole Miss and their record against the top 100, their overall record and RPI are all favorable and better than ours. What hurts them is the "what have you done for me lately" argument ie last 12 games but thats the point of the RPI as well to show a snapshot of the whole season. They finished 7-9 and Arkansas did that last year and got in over us. Ole Miss needs to win two games and they will be seriously considered.
RebelBruiser said:
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Technically, you would need an upset of UK to improve your chances of getting in, not a choke. You have a chance of choking in your first round game against UGA.
Right now, MSU, UT, and Vandy are all in. Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all have work to do. The UK-UF game tomorrow is huge for both teams. The loser will probably have to make a lot of noise in the tourney to have a shot at an at large. And even the winner probably won't get in without a win or two in the SECT. Arkansas probably just needs to avoid going 1 and done in the SEC tourney, but they'll probably have to face Vandy in their first game, which will be difficult.
I think the SEC gets 5 in. Whichever of Arkansas, Florida, UK, and Ole Miss do the best in the tourney will get in as at larges, and honestly I'd say Arkansas has the best shot at an at large, and Florida has the worst. UK and us are on about the same footing for opposite reasons, which could make our game with them in the 2nd round (assuming we get there) an elimination game.
I think the SEC gets 5 in. Whichever of Arkansas, Florida, UK, and Ole Miss do the best in the tourney will get in as at larges, and honestly I'd say Arkansas has the best shot at an at large, and Florida has the worst. UK and us are on about the same footing for opposite reasons, which could make our game with them in the 2nd round (assuming we get there) an elimination game.
Now I don't know how they do math in Desoto County, but in what amounts to a 16 game season, a 5 game margin is not anywhere near equal.
But you can't ignore a five game lead in the conference standings. That kind of margin makes the two teams far from equal. You will realize that when the seedings come out.
williecunningham said:
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What he's saying is that we're both 21-9 overall and your RPI is 39, while ours is 43 currently. That's not a big difference. Now, the 5 game difference over the 16 game portion of the schedule that is conference play (only a little over half of the entire resume) is what is making you a lock to the tourney and what has us on the bubble.
But the original point is that it's not that far fetched for us to be able to get an at large when you consider that you are a lock for a bid, and our resume is not that far behind yours except in the area of conference record.
And if you look at record against the Top 50, our record is better than most bubble teams in that category. Now the opposite end of that spectrum, we have too many 100+ RPI losses, but that's what makes us a bubble team.
Like most bubble teams, we have quite a few stats that are not favorable for us (conference record, record vs. 100+), but we also have quite a few that are very favorable (overall record, RPI, Top 50 record)
williecunningham said:
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That's what you're missing. No one is ignoring that stat. And that's why MSU is a lock and we still have work to do. If it weren't for that stat, we'd be a lock. No one is saying that we'll have a higher seed or that we'll even get in, just that it's not too far fetched for us to get a bid when you guys are a lock with a similar resume in multiple categories.
Of course, if you look at common opponents, you only have a 3 game lead on us. And yes there is more to a resume than conference play. If conference play was the only thing that mattered, UK would be a lock right now, but their pre-conference performance has them squarely on the bubble.
If they somehow lose tomorrow they are in serious trouble because they were on shaky ground already. They need a good run in the SECT to get in.
"Their resume is equal to ours when you look at it as a whole. " I know what that means. And I disagree.
All I'm saying is if we can be considered a sixth seed with our resume they should at least be in the tournament or be right there near the last four out.
