You have to expect that TCU will most likely be a loss just as much as Iowa St and Kansas will most likely be victories. That leaves three potentially tough games with Texas, Texas Tech, and K State. If we lose all three of those, then this season is a bust and we probably need to find a new coach. Win just one of those three, and it becomes iffy whether we give Holgerson another year or not. If we win at least two of those three games and end up either 7-5 or 8-4, I'd Holgerson would absolutely get another year.
I fully agree with your 1st two sentences. At 7-5 (4-5, conference), though, I think we need to look at how we looked. If we win 2 squeakers among UT, TTU and KSU not because we are playing better but because they manage to be more mistake-prone and inefficient than we are, I will see it differently than if we win two well-played ballgames. We have to consider that a 4-5 conference record will represent a step backwards from last season even though the overall record is identical (Alabama > Georgia Southern). It would also mean we have posted losing conference records 3 of our 4 Big 12 seasons and have an overall conference record of 15-21.
That would be 15 wins when we have played Kansas, ISU and TTU a total of 12 times. Just winning less than 10 of those games is underachieving, and even if we win all three of them this year we would only be 8-4 in those games. There are numerous non-Power 5 teams that could equal that.
We would also be 7-17 against the rest of the conference. You can talk all you want about how tough the Big 12 is but winning less than 1 out of 3 against the top half of this conference is "unspinnable" into anything but poor. And, let's be honest, Texas has been way down since we joined, Oklahoma has been down compared to its history, TCU has had 1 1/2 good seasons, OSU is a slightly above average program and only Baylor has managed to put together (assuming it finishes strong) three straight good years.
If we were 10-2 against the bottom 3 and say even 10-14 against the top 6, I could see believing we have not seriously underachieved. but, in a league with 2 cupcakes a year, averaging only 3.7 wins a year is not good.