This is Strange...

[CastleRubric]

...and strangely.....overlooked?

Tampa News - Empty Houses

apparently a phenomena across the US with other cities showing similar statistics etc

i get the vague feeling this is actually pretty important - but i’m not sure why

 

[HymanKaplan_rivals48997]

Rising interest rates, high unemployment, unstable buying market = homeowners riding out the storm.

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

high unemployment

?????

It's 3.6%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[Hank Camacho_rivals115797]

To some degree, I'm not sure we really know what exactly happened during the pandemic since all of the normal interactions were suspended, services paused, etc.

It is a little like Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina -- a puzzle.

 

[catlanta33]

This was from the lending tree article linked and what my guess is why there are high vacancies in FL. One of my biggest customers just got into buying up single family homes. The vacation rental market in FL is insane and only getting bigger.

On the flip side, high vacancy rates and high home prices can suggest that an area has unique characteristics, such as being a vacation hot spot or targeted by investors. Meanwhile, high vacancy rates and low home prices might mean an area is experiencing socioeconomic hardships.

 

[KentuckyStout]

The Tampa housing market is doing just fine. Big equity gains throughout the state right now.

Overall, there is somewhat of a housing shortage in the US.

 

[American Dragon]

Rising interest rates, high unemployment, unstable buying market = homeowners riding out the storm.

Add in rate of inflation and cost of housing far outraising rate of pay even before the inflation rate recently became high.

Older folks who were able to buy or build houses decades ago moving out into retirement/nursing facilities or downsizing and are having to sell to people who don't make nearly as much as their ancestors when adjusting for inflation.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Just guessing but probably a couple of things:

Vacation/Airbnb rentals

The concerning and unusual decision for a large investment company (blackrock?) to buy up as many residential properties as they can to hold as investment. I haven't seen anywhere that they're having these properties managed in any way.

Financial/economic concerns. Inflation is insane right now and who knows where/if it will end. Automation is about to take all kinds of both blue collar and office jobs.

Birth rate is apparently down. Many assumed there would be a giant pandemic baby boom but apparently it went the other direction.

 

[American Dragon]

I mean like look at that article. Median home costs $261,000. We lived lower middle class to low mid middle class growing up with both parents working (before my father had to retire early because of health issues), ain't no way in hell we could have afforded the cost of a median home in Florida when adjusted for inflation.

 

[American Dragon]

Just guessing but probably a couple of things:

Vacation/Airbnb rentals

The concerning and unusual decision for a large investment company (blackrock?) to buy up as many residential properties as they can to hold as investment. I haven't seen anywhere that they're having these properties managed in any way.

Financial/economic concerns. Inflation is insane right now and who knows where/if it will end. Automation is about to take all kinds of both blue collar and office jobs.

Birth rate is apparently down. Many assumed there would be a giant pandemic baby boom but apparently it went the other direction.

The whole prediction of a pandemic baby boom never made sense to me. Most people are sensible, why are they going to be having babies they hadn't previously planned on having just because they are sitting at home when people are losing jobs left and right? Costs a lot of money to have a baby and raise it, going to cost even more when you lose your job and health insurance.

 

[bbncal02]

I mean like look at that article. Median home costs $261,000. We lived lower middle class to low mid middle class growing up with both parents working (before my father had to retire early because of health issues), ain't no way in hell we could have afforded the cost of a median home in Florida when adjusted for inflation.

Winner winner. Homes are too damn expensive. I was just looking at houses (just for curiosity) in the Louisville area and there were some absolute garbage looking runs down houses selling for 200k.

It’s out of control. Millennials are renting because the economy absoltuely screwing them.
And then our lovely politicians can’t figure out why the renting population is so high.

DUH. Look around.

 

[bbncal02]

The whole prediction of a pandemic baby boom never made sense to me. Most people are sensible, why are they going to be having babies they hadn't previously planned on having just because they are sitting at home when people are losing jobs left and right? Costs a lot of money to have a baby and raise it, going to cost even more when you lose your job and health insurance.

The birth rate in general is declining. This is what happens when you have a top heavy economy. Too many extremely wealthy folks having too much crap.

And I’m not an “eat the rich” guy either. I’m a lover of history. And we’ve seen this all before. In France. In Rome.

We’re just too stupid to learn.

 

[JumperJack]

I believe in free markets. But the housing stock being snapped up by investors is bad, downright dangerous. When young people have no hope of getting a starter home, they become detached from the system, and soon become enemies of the system.

 

[HymanKaplan_rivals48997]

If you think unemployment is at a legitimate 3.6 percent, well. LOL

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

If you think unemployment is at a legitimate 3.6 percent, well. LOL

Unemployment as defined by the government probably is around there. The trick is how they define it. Tons of people with no jobs fail to meet the definition, so they're not considered "unemployed"

 

[Saguaro Cat]

Add in rate of inflation and cost of housing far outraising rate of pay even before the inflation rate recently became high.

Older folks who were able to buy or build houses decades ago moving out into retirement/nursing facilities or downsizing and are having to sell to people who don't make nearly as much as their ancestors when adjusting for inflation.

I hope no old people are holding onto a house waiting for it to get better. Even adjusting for inflation at twice the amount, old people would still be making a killing selling their houses. There is a shortage, and houses are selling above asking price the day they are listed.

 

[catlanta33]

Overall, there is somewhat of a housing shortage in the US.

There is. Multi-family and Residential can't be built fast enough right now. Most of the apartments we do work on in new construction are fully booked before they even have CO. That used to be unheard of now you expect it. Granted these are in the hottest markets in the US so that should be taken into account as well. But even then, places like Montana and Idaho are having their own booms with multi-family right now. They're getting the folks that can't afford to live in Cali or Washington from the incredibly high real estate prices combined with the incredibly high taxes.

Since the housing market collapsed, apartment rents have been going up. Now that single family has basically rebounded from the collapse of the housing market, apartment rents have increased to the point where it's not necessarily the less expensive alternative it once was.

Then you have trends and the trend of younger people is more to live, work, play instead of house with a big yard/maintenance. So multi-family is stuck in a perpetual shortage right now because they can't build fast enough to keep up with demand and the renter is out of options because they can't buy or rent a house for the asking price, either.

I don't know what this means going forward. We work with a lot of developers and they aren't showing any signs of slowing down. MOF- most tell us to be ready because they are buying more.

 

[Saguaro Cat]

If you think unemployment is at a legitimate 3.6 percent, well. LOL

If you think more people can't find a job today than a year or two ago, well LOL.

companies are poaching from each other. Can't get product out the door because of labor shortages. There's a lot of volatility in prices and availability as the economy starts to pickup. But unemployment is a problem for less people today.

 

[American Dragon]

I hope no old people are holding onto a house waiting for it to get better. Even adjusting for inflation at twice the amount, old people would still be making a killing selling their houses. There is a shortage, and houses are selling above asking price the day they are listed.

It's an atrocious buyer's market. I can't find it, but many financial people who have always said buy instead of rent are saying now it's better off to rent.

 

[bbncal02]

It's an atrocious buyer's market. I can't find it, but many financial people who have always said buy instead of rent are saying now it's better off to rent.

It’s just of control. Waay out of control.

I sqw like a 1100 sq ft house (not very big) for like 180,000. That’s INSANE.

 

[august-west]

In 2016 I bought my house in Paducah, which was listed at 115,000$, paid 91,500 in a cash deal. 1500sqft, 1/4 acre lot, older neighborhood but one that had a lot of potential for new growth. Now everything I can find lists the value between 135-145. I’d be willing to bet we could list it on the high side and get an offer(s) at higher than asking. I’ve thought of selling, taking the full profit to put down on another place and upgrading, but hate the thought of making another house payment.

Point is, if this market has risen like it has it is hard to fathom what it’s like in bigger/major markets.

 

[UK till Death]

?????

It's 3.6%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Labor force participation is the number that actually matters.

 

[UK till Death]

It’s just of control. Waay out of control.

I sqw like a 1100 sq ft house (not very big) for like 180,000. That’s INSANE.

Central Kentucky ... 1500 sq. ft. Listed at $295k. Pretty sure it's already sold. Insane.

 

[The-Hack]

...and strangely.....overlooked?

I’m not surprised. Of the total nationally, most of them may be in smalltowns.

Kentucky passed House Bill 422 just 5 years ago, which gave small towns a constitutional framework to issue citations for neglected and abandoned properties.

One community with which I work has demolished twenty old houses, most of which were completely abandoned by owners/creditors. The total demolished is about 2 percent of the private homes within the city.

The biggest cause?

The economic crises of 2008-10 left many houses abandoned and in foreclosure . . . and then many of the “banks” holding the notes vanished completely, or were merged into other banking institutions, many failing to complete the foreclosure procedures, leaving empty houses in limbo.

Another main driver has been the abandonment of smaller, older houses by those who have moved up and out of dilapidated neighborhoods. As the neighborhood was rough to begin with, the first ten years a house was abandoned mattered little to anyone: then 15/20 years down the road, the abandoned house starts to lean or collapse into itself, creating an obvious public nuisance.

My largest municipal client was taken all the way to the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals in one case where we demolished a house that was causing “imminent danger” to the neighborhood. We won in Lexington Federal Court and in the 6th Circuit last Fall, establishing the first federal test case of the application of House Bill 422.

Dozens of intermediate and small towns are now considering adopting House Bill 422 in their communities, to deal with a problem that appears to be universal to small towns.

Drive through about any town of less than 20K people in Kentucky, and head to the poorer neighborhoods. You won’t have much problem finding abandoned houses, or houses that should be abandoned.

Our 2% rate of demolishment is well below the national average rate of 11/12 percent unoccupied, but we have many that are in limbo: unoccupied, but with vacant owners or neighbors keeping the grass mowed and the doors/windows shut, hence no public nuisance (yet).

 

[CastleRubric]

I’m not surprised. Of the total nationally, most of them may be in smalltowns.

Kentucky passed House Bill 422 just 5 years ago, which gave small towns a constitutional framework to issue citations for neglected and abandoned properties.

One community with which I work has demolished twenty old houses, most of which were completely abandoned by owners/creditors. The total demolished is about 2 percent of the private homes within the city.

The biggest cause?

The economic crises of 2008-10 left many houses abandoned and in foreclosure . . . and then many of the “banks” holding the notes vanished completely, or were merged into other banking institutions, many failing to complete the foreclosure procedures, leaving empty houses in limbo.

Another main driver has been the abandonment of smaller, older houses by those who have moved up and out of dilapidated neighborhoods. As the neighborhood was rough to begin with, the first ten years a house was abandoned mattered little to anyone: then 15/20 years down the road, the abandoned house starts to lean or collapse into itself, creating an obvious public nuisance.

My largest municipal client was taken all the way to the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals in one case where we demolished a house that was causing “imminent danger” to the neighborhood. We won in Lexington Federal Court and in the 6th Circuit last Fall, establishing the first federal test case of the application of House Bill 422.

Dozens of intermediate and small towns are now considering adopting House Bill 422 in their communities, to deal with a problem that appears to be universal to small towns.

Drive through about any town of less than 20K people in Kentucky, and head to the poorer neighborhoods. You won’t have much problem finding abandoned houses, or houses that should be abandoned.

Our 2% rate of demolishment is well below the national average rate of 11/12 percent unoccupied, but we have many that are in limbo: unoccupied, but with vacant owners or neighbors keeping the grass mowed and the doors/windows shut, hence no public nuisance (yet).

That’s a lot of good stuff

The rundown didn’t include morbidity / mortality and probably should have - also potentially condemned areas

PS - i hate the gators

 

[The-Hack]

The rundown didn’t include morbidity / mortality and probably should have - also potentially condemned areas

15 years ago, we found a house on the edge of one of our small towns that had been abandoned, abruptly in the 1970’s, but never stood out as a nuisance as a neighbor or two kept the yard mowed.

I and other public officials were asked to investigate who owned it. It was spooky . . . closets full of 1970’s clothes . . . furnishings and fixtures just like those I remembered from my teen years in the 70’s . . . you expected Greg or Marsha Brady to come around every corner.

It had belonged to a woman who had died with only cousins to inherit, and they lived far away. The cousins couldn’t get along good enough to speak to one another, and each had assumed the other had filed an estate to dispose of the property.

 

[The-Hack]

That’s a lot of good stuff

The Middlesbrough/Pineville area is one familiar to me.

If your ever back down in your home town/County, it would be easy to find abandoned homes in some of the rougher areas of the towns.

 

[bbncal02]

Central Kentucky ... 1500 sq. ft. Listed at $295k. Pretty sure it's already sold. Insane.

63 dollars a square foot. Basically a quarter of a days pay per square foot for a lot of people. Crazy. I see a lot of repossessions forth coming. I don’t know where people are finding that kind of house payment. That’s nearly 900 bucks a month on a 30 year. And that’s without interest . They say 30 percent of your take home pay should be mortgage. So, just doing rough math, that’s eighth 3 k a month take home. Which is roughly about 48,000. So it’s not completely nuts but for that small of a house it is.

And consider the median income is 50k in Kentucky, there’s a lot of people who fall below that line especially starting out or with families to take care of.

 

[bbncal02]

In 2016 I bought my house in Paducah, which was listed at 115,000$, paid 91,500 in a cash deal. 1500sqft, 1/4 acre lot, older neighborhood but one that had a lot of potential for new growth. Now everything I can find lists the value between 135-145. I’d be willing to bet we could list it on the high side and get an offer(s) at higher than asking. I’ve thought of selling, taking the full profit to put down on another place and upgrading, but hate the thought of making another house payment.

Point is, if this market has risen like it has it is hard to fathom what it’s like in bigger/major markets.

I know of apartments in Nashville that are like 1500/month. For like studio apartments. I mean you could buy a decent sized house in most places for that kind of money.

It’s unsustainable. It just can’t continue. And it’s going to collapse in epic style.

 

[CastleRubric]

15 years ago, we found a house on the edge of one of our small towns that had been abandoned, abruptly in the 1970’s, but never stood out as a nuisance as a neighbor or two kept the yard mowed.

I and other public officials were asked to investigate who owned it. It was spooky . . . closets full of 1970’s clothes . . . furnishings and fixtures just like those I remembered from my teen years in the 70’s . . . you expected Greg or Marsha Brady to come around every corner.

It had belonged to a woman who had died with only cousins to inherit, and they lived far away. The cousins couldn’t get along good enough to speak to one another, and each had assumed the other had filed an estate to dispose of the property.

I’m right now supporting my brothers, sisters in law, wife & others as we enter week 4 of getting my momma - who’s in year 3 of alzheimer’s — transitioned from a 3-4 month stretch of hospital/stark covid ward & nursing home settings — into better more familiar cycles in her home near Cumberland Gap

 

[UK till Death]

You're a good man, @CastleRubric

 

[HymanKaplan_rivals48997]

As a recent retiree, I'm loving the fact that a LOT of folks that are much younger than me don't want to "participate"' in the labor market.

I have decades of experience, in a wide array of job sectors, need minimal training and virtually no supervision. I will show up on time, all the time, am a fast learner, self-motivated, and don't require benefits, because I already have them.

IOW - I'm worth a lot of money to most employers.

 

[CastleRubric]

As a recent retiree, I'm loving the fact that a LOT of folks that are much younger than me don't want to "participate"' in the labor market.

I have decades of experience, in a wide array of job sectors, need minimal training and virtually no supervision. I will show up on time, all the time, am a fast learner, self-motivated, and don't require benefits, because I already have them.

IOW - I'm worth a lot of money to most employers.

and ALLEGEDLY - you’re clearance worthy

i bet you compartmentalize your own head space & do what i call “skip thinking” ,, muchacho

I’d hire you -
Fk yea
And get into a fist fight w/you by end of week 2
THEN coordinate our NSA hack

 

[The-Hack]

the fact that a LOT of folks that are much younger than me don't want to "participate"' in the labor market.

I keep thinking (and telling local farmers) we are going to have to start putting 20 hours or more into local factory work, or we might lose our factories.

I was taught as a teen by men in their 60’s and even 70’s how to work. It was my early 20’s before I could outdo most of them, and I obviously did not brag.

 

[The-Hack]

if any y’all are going thru anything similar - God bless

Lost my Mom at 92 years old 27 months ago.

She had dementia, but non-Alzheimer’s.

God Bless you all!

 

[The-Hack]

IOW - I'm worth a lot of money to most employers.

8 years ago I was working with a 45 year “work-brickle” friend and a 17 year old clearing an old fence line. The 17 year old was scared of briars and was worthless. I kept telling him to lose his fear of them, and they wouldn’t gig as bad.

He asked me what I meant.

I took off my coat and shirt and laid down on a stack of them bare chested, got up and none came with me. He told me I was crazy. I told him 40 years ago I knew men who would have chewed through briars to show their toughness.

A gent I cut tobacco with 40 years ago told me recently, “I’m not half the man my daddy was, and my son ain’t half the man I am . . . so where are we headed.”

A thought!!

 

[CastleRubric]

8 years ago I was working with a 45 year “work-brickle” friend and a 17 year old clearing an old fence line. The 17 year old was scared of briars and was worthless. I kept telling him to lose his fear of them, and they wouldn’t gig as bad.

He asked me what I meant.

I took off my coat and shirt and laid down on a stack of them bare chested, got up and none came with me. He told me I was crazy. I told him 40 years ago I knew men who would have chewed through briars to show their toughness.

A gent I cut tobacco with 40 years ago told me recently, “I’m not half the man my daddy was, and my son ain’t half the man I am . . . so where are we headed.”

A thought!!

Like It

Do you think toughness can quickly return to a population that’s been “softened” ?

Sometimes not at all -

 

[The-Hack]

Sometimes not at all -

Toughness is and was rare. I had city/suburban cousins in the 60’s as soft a marshmallow.

The real farm boys/girls are pretty tough, still.

 

[Get Buckets]

In 2016 I bought my house in Paducah, which was listed at 115,000$, paid 91,500 in a cash deal. 1500sqft, 1/4 acre lot, older neighborhood but one that had a lot of potential for new growth. Now everything I can find lists the value between 135-145. I’d be willing to bet we could list it on the high side and get an offer(s) at higher than asking. I’ve thought of selling, taking the full profit to put down on another place and upgrading, but hate the thought of making another house payment.

Point is, if this market has risen like it has it is hard to fathom what it’s like in bigger/major markets.

I take it you didn’t get that land from your long lost relative?

 

[HymanKaplan_rivals48997]

I should have said there is ONE exception to my worthiness as an employee.

I will NEVER EVER cut tobacco again.

That is the most back-breaking work I have ever done in my life. I don't care if it pays 50 dollars an hour, Dad can't hack that now. LOL

I would be in traction by lunch time, Day one.