This shows the most important stat for predictive success

[satcheluk]

Below are Vandy's offensive stats/rankings from last year. They were mostly crap and not dissimilar from UK's offensive rankings, except for the last one. If you are near the top there, then you are going to a bowl. The rest of the stats will determine the difference between 6 wins and more.

• Scoring: 27.3 (No. 73 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.37 (No. 50 overall)
• Success Rate: 40.3% (No. 94 overall)
• EPA/Play: 0.04 (No. 65 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 5.31 (No. 102 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 3.83 (No. 96 overall)
• Yards Per Pass: 7.6 (No. 46 overall)
• Snaps Per Game: 58 (No. 129 overall)
• Run Play Percentage: 60.25% (No. 12 overall)
• Havoc Rate Allowed: 10.7% (No. 72 overall)
• 20+ yard plays: 41 (No. 118 overall)
• Red Zone TD Percentage: 71.11% (No. 21 overall)
• Turnovers: 7 (No. 1 overall)

Now compare that with their defensive stats, which are significantly lower than UK's last year and it proves how important turnover margin is.

• Scoring: 23.4 (No. 49 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.52 (No. 91 overall)
• Success Rate: 44.9% (No. 116 overall)
• EPA/Play: 0.09 (No. 108 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.00 (No. 95 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 4.29 (No. 75 overall)
• Yards Per Pass: 7.9 (No. 105 overall)
• Snaps Per Game: 61 (No. 21 overall)
• Havoc Rate: 11.9% (No. 45 overall)
• 20+ yard plays: 64 (No. 105 overall)
• Red Zone TD Percentage: 57.89% (No. 57 overall)
• Takeaways: 16 (No. 77 overall)

 

[Deeeefense]

Net TOs per game last season:
Vandy +.6 24th
Kentucky -.6 112th

 

[K_TIME]

I think this is a great breakdown....and Vandy was not a ton better than UK...UK for sure had more talent. But their QB was a winner, kept drives alive and converted the downs when they needed. But UK used to be that team that could extend drives and keep the chains moving....need to get back to that team.

 

[Shydog]

Aren't turnovers committed much more important for slower moving offenses like ours and Vandy's than for teams with a much quicker tempo?

 

[FireWentOut]

It appears that they managed to control time of possession.

Snaps Per Game: 58 (No. 129 overall)

Means they were executing plays as well as not turning the ball over. No discipline and poor execution are UK's number one and two problems.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

All goes back to running the ball, controlling the clock and protecting the ball when you are at a talent disadvantage. Shortening the game to give you a better chance to win.

 

[4Frusciante#]

Aren't turnovers committed much more important for slower moving offenses like ours and Vandy's than for teams with a much quicker tempo?

Yeah, same as in any sport, the more possessions you have the less impact of any specific mistake.

 

[bigblueinsanity (the real)]

All goes back to running the ball, controlling the clock and protecting the ball when you are at a talent disadvantage. Shortening the game to give you a better chance to win.

Exactly. Crazy thing is UK was elite at doing exactly that. We changed, and its been downhill since.

Those turnovers last year were devastating when you consider how close we were in most of those games.

 

[satcheluk]

Aren't turnovers committed much more important for slower moving offenses like ours and Vandy's than for teams with a much quicker tempo?

Vandy isn't more uptempo than us. It just appears that way. UK took 835 snaps in 2024, while Vandy took 851 which equates to just over 1 snap per game and our snap count was disproportionately affected to the negative with so many 3 and out drives.

 

[Shydog]

Vandy isn't more uptempo than us. It just appears that way. UK took 835 snaps in 2024, while Vandy took 851 which equates to just over 1 snap per game and our snap count was disproportionately affected to the negative with so many 3 and out drives.

Agree, I said offenses like ours and Vandys.

 

[gg4uk]

Yards Per Play (YPP) is the single best stat to evaluate teams. YPP captures a teams ability move or stop the ball from being moved. If you take OFF YPP minus DEF YPP and the result is 0.0 then. Good teams have a solid + result while bad teams are negative. Assuming the two teams being compared have faced similar competition the team with the larger YPP margin wins the game. The only exception is is when Turn Overs or non-offensive scores occur.

In the last five seasons teams that have had a “non-positive” turnover margin four straight years 75% of the time they have a 5th. UK has had four straight years of non positive TO ratio for the season. I personally believe UK will be in that 25% at the end of 2025.