Thoughts on the Tesla Model 3?

[CatDaddy4daWin]

So it looks like Tesla is blowing the doors off with this car based on the pre-orders. They are up to nearly 325,000 pre-orders. Last year the #1 car (Camry) sold 360,000.
http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/7/11385146/tesla-model-3-preorders-375000-elon-musk

Now obviously all of those pre-orders won't turn into actual orders but they did have to put a $1,000 down which is not pocket change and definitely shows a very likely intent of following through on the order.

For an electric, it blows the doors off everything else out there. The all glass top is incredible.

I've usually kept my cars under 20k and get a nice used one that is 4+ year old but man, it is tempting to get on the Tesla bandwagon here. Anyone else contemplating it?

The more good looking electrics that are reasonably priced are going to start taking off. I could see more and more folks getting an electric for a 2nd car. Range of 200+ is not bad, but I'd really like to see that pushed over 300. If I could drive to Chicago without recharging that's a win.

 

[d2atTech]

i'd wait. elon has a nasty habit of over promising, under delivering

 

[joeyrupption]

They are awesome. My buddy has a mid-range S and it makes me want commit to a bunch of lifestyle changes in order to acquire one.

They are cars conceived by rocket scientists and it shows in every way.

 

[mashburned]

I think they could've made one that didn't look like a hyaundai.

 

[DSmith21]

No Ludicrous mode (A.K.A. Squirt mode), no care.

Not to be outdone, Tesla one-upped itself again earlier this year with the Model S P90D, which goes from 0 to 60 mph in just 2.8 seconds. That's called "ludicrous mode."

http://www.techinsider.io/tesla-model-s-insane-mode-vs-ludicrous-mode-2015-9

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I like the front, kind of a hybrid between the '05-'10 Infiniti front ends and a Porsche. But, if this car becomes as common as a Camry, or more, as the sales show, you're going to have a fair amount of people bail. I happened to see a few tech friends put a down-payment on it today (they shared it on FB), and those same people won't pull the trigger if it's a car for the common folk.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

i'd wait. elon has a nasty habit of over promising, under delivering

On timing yes, not on awesomeness of the cars. If you signed up for one today, probably won't get it until 2019, maybe later.

 

[d2atTech]

On timing yes, not on awesomeness of the cars. If you signed up for one today, probably won't get it until 2019, maybe later.

even on the awesomeness of the cars my friend. the more you know, the less you get impressed. autopilot = sucks.

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

even on the awesomeness of the cars my friend. the more you know, the less you get impressed. autopilot = sucks.

I guess you can't impress everybody [pfftt]

The technology in this thing beats any car on the market. I am worried about the timeline though. They will have to SERIOUSLY ramp up to meet that kind of demand. If they don't start producing cars till 2017 gotta figure it will take them 2 years easy to make that many. This is a good thing though. Could be the final push other carmakers need to start taking electric even more serious. Need more charging stations. Looks like there is only 1 in Louisville.

My only complaint is I don't like the current way the display sits in the car though. I'm hoping this is just preproduction and it will actually be housed inside the dash like the other Teslas.

 

[BernieSadori]

My Dads wifes grandson (got it) owns a Tesla he paid 90k for. I rode in it and that was the quickest car I've been in. Got over 60 quickly on a side street in the Highlands.

He asked if I wanted to drive it but I was blitzed.Told him and we agreed maybe another time.

Inside was awesome. Huge touch screen that updates when new technology is released and a great sound system.

Still, that kind of coin....no thanks.

 

[TransyCat09]

The Chevy Bolt will, more than likely, be a safer bet. And the Volt, while not fully electric, is a much better option at this point

- It will have a massive dealer/repair network in place
- The interior won't be absolute dogshit like Tesla's
- The quality control will almost *have* to outclass Tesla's
- Similar range
- Base model will be more expensive, but anything above that (i.e., what almost every Tesla buyer will want) will be similar in price or cheaper

Also, Tesla has two big problems. 1) Their price tag for the bottom of the barrel model is based on tax incentives that almost certainly won't be around by the time the Model 3 hits the market. So for a Model 3 with "mid-tier" options, you will probably be looking at closer to $45k. And 2) You probably won't get it until 2020, anyway. Tesla can't maintain production schedules and even a modicum of quality control on their relatively small current output

I like the idea of fully electric cars and am glad Tesla has pushed car manufacturers in this direction. Musk and Tesla are a good kickstart and will certainly reap the profits of selling batteries down the line. That said, Tesla is not a reliable auto manufacturer (yet?).

$.02

 

[d2atTech]

The Chevy Bolt will, more than likely, be a safer bet. And the Volt, while not fully electric, is a much better option at this point

- It will have a massive dealer/repair network in place
- The interior won't be absolute dogshit like Tesla's
- The quality control will almost *have* to outclass Tesla's
- Similar range
- Base model will be more expensive, but anything above that (i.e., what almost every Tesla buyer will want) will be similar in price or cheaper

Also, Tesla has two big problems. 1) Their price tag for the bottom of the barrel model is based on tax incentives that almost certainly won't be around by the time the Model 3 hits the market. So for a Model 3 with "mid-tier" options, you will probably be looking at closer to $45k. And 2) You probably won't get it until 2020, anyway. Tesla can't maintain production schedules and even a modicum of quality control on their relatively small current output

I like the idea of fully electric cars and am glad Tesla has pushed car manufacturers in this direction. Musk and Tesla are a good kickstart and will certainly reap the profits of selling batteries down the line. That said, Tesla is not a reliable auto manufacturer (yet?).

$.02

yeah but keep in mind tesla isn't a car company (and likley never will be) but chevy is. from that perspective, it is much more tolerable. the money isnt to be made in the car for tesla, so they just wont care.

 

[TransyCat09]

What is much more tolerable?

I also mentioned that Tesla is more concerned about selling batteries, long term, than cars

 

[UKGrad93]

I can't wait for the first idiot to electrocute himself trying to be a shade tree mechanic on one of these. You know it will happen as the price point brings these to the masses.

On a more serious, but related note, the lack of places for service would be a drawback.

I still think that a hybrid Camry is probably the best bang for the buck.

 

[d2atTech]

What is much more tolerable?

I also mentioned that Tesla is more concerned about selling batteries, long term, than cars

yup agree with you 100% on tesla batteries, and I should have been more clear.. I claim Chevy is better at making cars, and tesla will never beat them. meanwhile tesla is good at making batteries, and chevy will never beat them. while you pay more for less car by buying a tesla, what makes is tolerable is that you have more guarentees that your model will have continued battery replacement support. tesla has the best (at perhaps the only) infrastructure to support this. as for me, i'm sticking with gas powered cars. hell of a lot cheaper.

 

[TransyCat09]

^^^ Gotcha

I still contend the Volt, now that they have redesigned it, is the best option for anyone looking for an affordable(ish) electric car. I can't imagine why anyone *needs* a fully electric car over a hybrid*, unless you demand longer charging times and more limited range.


*Yes, I know Tesla's aren't about practicality and they are a status symbol/conversation piece as much as they are fuel cost reducer.

 

[arasco]

I was told (by a friend who made a deposit) that the $1,000 is fully refundable. The sales may not be that solid, given you just have to park a grand and you can still back out.

That said, the proposed build out of charging infrastructure is very impressive. Accomplishing this build out would be huge.

Also, it's impressive to generate this buzz while gas is cheap. We may be seeing a significant shift in the transportation and energy business.

 

[Free_Salato_Blue]

I'd take a Tesla over a GM product. Sadly the archaic car dealer lobbies has hampered their expansion in many states.
The consumer should be able to skip the middle man and buy direct.

For now I'll stick with my Subaru.

 

[jockstrap_mcgee]

As long as it can carry a bunk bed from Ikea, I'm sold.

 

[We-Todd-Did]

I can't wait for the first idiot to electrocute himself trying to be a shade tree mechanic on one of these.

One of the best podcasts I ever heard was an interview with the lead engineer of the Volt. The way he described the handling of the batteries sounded like methods used for military ordinance. Locked cages for storage, only certain people could be around the installation area, etc.

 

[Big_Blue79]

I'd take a Tesla over a GM product. Sadly the archaic car dealer lobbies has hampered their expansion in many states.
The consumer should be able to skip the middle man and buy direct.

For now I'll stick with my Subaru.

As someone involved with some GM bankruptcy/ignition switch litigation stuff, I'd agree. Not that they haven't improved or learned lessons, just that I'm forever scarred.

Probably getting a car soon, and trying to talk my wife into a WRX wagon. Wanted a WRX for years, never quite pulled the trigger.

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

The Bolt is not a bad little electric but it's no Tesla. I also like the new look of the Volt. That was the car I was originally intrigued by when it first came out but the difference between the pre-production model and the final turned it into just another boring hybrid.

The way the Volt was designed is pretty awesome though. If you only do small trips that tank of gas could last you a 1000 miles or more if you mostly took small trips.

 

[goose41]

The tax incentive for the Model 3 is not included in the $35k base price. The tax incentive also goes away in "waves," so even if you aren't one of the first 200,000 buyers, you can still get a reduced credit afterwards.

 

[DSmith21]

Why are we giving tax breaks for cars that run on power generated primarily by coal and natural gas? They should stand on their own.

 

[MoreheadEagle]

When we were shopping for a car last year, I took a test drive in a Nissan Leaf. It is what it is. A small commuter car with very little in the way of frills and we almost got it because a commuter car was all we needed. IIRC it got better range than the Volt.

Anyway. I love the look of Teslas and I love what they're doing to shift the market more towards electric cars. I just don't think I can convince myself to pay that much for one of their cars.

 

[Big_Blue79]

Why are we giving tax breaks for cars that run on power generated primarily by coal and natural gas? They should stand on their own.

There's a lot (trillions overall, likely) in market distortions for just about everything. To wit, a lot of US treasure has gone into helping ensure stable oil supplies (note: this isn't the dimwitted "blood for oil" argument). Not to mention second and third order costs, like unstable regimes. Hard to judge such things in a vacuum.

 

[TransyCat09]

When we were shopping for a car last year, I took a test drive in a Nissan Leaf. It is what it is. A small commuter car with very little in the way of frills and we almost got it because a commuter car was all we needed. IIRC it got better range than the Volt.

Anyway. I love the look of Teslas and I love what they're doing to shift the market more towards electric cars. I just don't think I can convince myself to pay that much for one of their cars.

It has more pure electric range than the Volt, but the Volt has the gas backup. Again, if you just have to have all electric then the Tesla or even Leaf makes sense.

The tax incentive for the Model 3 is not included in the $35k base price. The tax incentive also goes away in "waves," so even if you aren't one of the first 200,000 buyers, you can still get a reduced credit afterwards.

Those "waves" only last a few months. Tesla is projected to pass the 200k car mark sometime next year (it is total production, not per model). After that, they have 6 months-ish of reduced credits. After that, they are gone. The Model 3 most likely won't make market until 2019, so they will almost certainly not be eligible for the credit. Even if they are, it will only be the very first pre-orders

 

[goose41]

Here is a good summary of how the tax credits work.

This is the tax credit timeline in summary form:

Full tax credit applies until the automaker reaches 200,000 sales and titled deliveries.
The full credit also applies to the end of the sales-hit-200,000 quarter and the quarter beyond.
The credit is halved (from $7,500 to $3,750 for most EVs) for the next two quarters.
The credit is halved again (to $1,875) for two more quarters.
The credit then ends five-plus quarters after the 200,000th sale and delivery.
EVs sold before 2010 (a handful of Tesla Roadsters) don’t count toward the 200,000 cap

Link

 

[ky8335]

I work near a Tesla quick charging station and would love to own a model 3 once a few hands on reviews come out. By that time the wait might be until 2020 or longer. We'll see if they're able to scale up production.

I've been an avid follower of the Space X program and if Musk can land a rocket on a boat I'll buy one of his cars.

 

[Free_Salato_Blue]

As someone involved with some GM bankruptcy/ignition switch litigation stuff, I'd agree. Not that they haven't improved or learned lessons, just that I'm forever scarred.

Probably getting a car soon, and trying to talk my wife into a WRX wagon. Wanted a WRX for years, never quite pulled the trigger.

First car I bought was an entry level Chevy. The engine ran well enough but seemed like little things started to fall apart after the warranty was over.
I'd differently get a Subaru wagon, with a coupe you always wishing you had more space unless you have a truck on the side to drive.
"Honey it's a family car, never mind the hood scoop and turbine whine coming under it." kay:

 

[dgtatu01]

I have a 2008 Toyota Camry Hybrid. Thinking about a new ride right now and while this Teala intrigues me I really want a Subaru. The car junky in me wants a 6 cylinder Legacy, but the practical family man in me wants a 6 cylinder Outback.

 

[We-Todd-Did]

A big plus would be if it comes with one of these. Star Trek didn't have anything this cool.

 

[Free_Salato_Blue]

That's like some weird car porn.

 

[ukalum01]

I also mentioned that Tesla is more concerned about selling batteries, long term, than cars

Yep. This is more about the batteries.

 

[pikespeak1]

The Chevy Bolt will, more than likely, be a safer bet. And the Volt, while not fully electric, is a much better option at this point

- It will have a massive dealer/repair network in place
- The interior won't be absolute dogshit like Tesla's
- The quality control will almost *have* to outclass Tesla's
- Similar range
- Base model will be more expensive, but anything above that (i.e., what almost every Tesla buyer will want) will be similar in price or cheaper

Also, Tesla has two big problems. 1) Their price tag for the bottom of the barrel model is based on tax incentives that almost certainly won't be around by the time the Model 3 hits the market. So for a Model 3 with "mid-tier" options, you will probably be looking at closer to $45k. And 2) You probably won't get it until 2020, anyway. Tesla can't maintain production schedules and even a modicum of quality control on their relatively small current output

I like the idea of fully electric cars and am glad Tesla has pushed car manufacturers in this direction. Musk and Tesla are a good kickstart and will certainly reap the profits of selling batteries down the line. That said, Tesla is not a reliable auto manufacturer (yet?).

$.02

Nissan Leaf is far better than the Volt.

 

[TransyCat09]

For commuting exclusively in a city? Sure.

For using it like most people use their cars? Absolutely not

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

For commuting exclusively in a city? Sure.

For using it like most people use their cars? Absolutely not

Most people average 40 miles or less a day. Perfect situation for an electric. All electrics need to do is get to that 300+ mile range mark and you'll begin to see a shift in the market. That range would cover 98% of use cases.

But I agree that the Volt is a nice compromise for those worried about range. Gas engine is still dirtier and has more moving parts that could break vs an electric motor.

The next step is to start 'gridifying' the highway system to collect energy and then using that energy to power cars as they drive as well as lights and other signage requiring electricity.

I can see electric and fuel cells ultimately being the next evolution. Gas engines will eventually be a thing of the past.

 

[TransyCat09]

Most people average 40 miles or less a day.

You're right, most people *average* 40 miles a day. Which means roughly 50% of the days, the average person, will necessarily be driving further than 40 miles. Given that the real world range of a Leaf is 65-ish miles driving 55+ MPH, I would say most people couldn't drive it every single day.

Hell, my commute to work is MAYBE 4 miles, roundtrip. But at least once a week, I end up driving a lot more than that for various reasons and would be out of the Leaf's range.

I still like the idea of electric cars and can't wait until they are truly competitive. I just think every option right now as at least one critical drawback for most buyers. If you're a buyer that isn't hit by one of those drawbacks, then you should definitely buy one