Seem strange to me to compare in that way as, by definition, when you fire a coach, you're rebuilding, At any rate, CC improved our win total in each of his first four years, winning the most games in school history two years ago. So by this measure and the many others I have detailed, he has improved the team
Time for Collins to go
- Thread starter torque-cat
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Seem strange to me to compare in that way as, by definition, when you fire a coach, you're rebuilding, At any rate, CC improved our win total in each of his first four years, winning the most games in school history two years ago. So by this measure and the many others I have detailed, he has improved the team
But by the only measure that matters at the end of the day, he has had losing records 3 of his first 5 years, which is not an improvement over the previous 5 years.......the vector isn't pointing up.
Find me some coaches who improved their team's win total in each of their first four seasons as a coach. I suspect that the list will not be large..
And if you think that things aren't looking up under CC relative to Carmody, I can't help you.
It is, whether you believe it or not. They are called rebuilds when you fire a coach for a reason.
It wasn't a rebuild. It was a "take it from point B to Point C". And Collins got it to Point C. But if you step back and look at the totality, NU's W's and L's aren't different in the 5 years of the Collins regime versus the end of the Carmody regime. And while my heart wants to say the Cats are in a different place, with the "arrow pointing up", in reality the W's and L's don't agree.
I don't think BC was fired "rebuild" since he took the program to the most competitive it's ever been, he was fired because he probably couldn't take the program to the next level. So the comparison is to see to what degree CC has done that. Of course he got the tourney bid, which is exactly what he came here for--but the long term trend remains to be seen. But I don't think there are any magic bullets out there. Just like with Fitz, you need to take the long road, ride the ups and downs and keep building the foundation. Even Fitz is a couple of plays from mediocrity that past 2 seasons. The margin between success and failure is miniscule when at Northwestern since we don't generally have access to the 'Bama/Clemson or Duke/Kentucky or even MSU superstars.
Well, he was 13-19 in the season that he was fired, our worst record in six seasons. That season, we had such luminaries on our roster as Mike Turner, Chier Ajou, and Aaron Liberman and lost our last NINE games in a row. Sounds more like a rebuild job to me than a program that simply couldn't be taken to the next level.,..
Agree to disagree I guess. I see a distinct upward trend. We'll see if I'm right.
Sorry that your lack of emotional intelligence prevents you from discerning between banter and real discourse. Each time you use the word Koolaid, you make yourself the laughingstock of this board. Try to hold on to your screen name next time, IGNORE.
Emotional intelligence. Nice. Happy to be that joke.
Hope you are right. When you can’t spot the mark, it’s probably you.
Love this Id. But will wager on things I believe in. Feel free to take a chance
I will see them and raise you BMac, Scottie, Pardon, Law, etc.
I believe that you're the one that has been discussing competitive depth a lot lately, correct? . Look at the weakest three scholarship players on that roster compared to the weakest three scholarship players on the current roster. Night and day. Carmody's roster was a mess, with players who should have not been anywhere near a BIG scholarship. Collins' starter minutes seem downright low compared to some of the minutes Demps et.al. played when the roster was six-deep...
Of course conveniently ignoring something you well know Mike because you watch the team closely. That year’s team was crushed by injury.
This thread was inevitable--just a matter of time. NU ALWAYS loses their BBall coaches. Given something (who knows what) inherent about NU BBall, it may never be possible to be Duke, or even close. Although I'd stick with one coach for a while since any alternative is not likely to produce better results than doing that. And that is my totally uninformed opinion.
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I mean, I generally agree with you on direction of the program, but the way you are arguing this almost makes me want to disagree with you. The 5 years pre Collins to his first 5 years is a totally logical comparison. Citing bottom of the roster players in a derisive manner, when you can find some marginal guys on most any roster, also seems unnecessary.
I think we are going in the right direction too, but it is 100% fair to observe that to date the conference W and Ls aren't much different overall than the tail end of BC's regime. The one big difference is that we made the tournament once, which was awesome.
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I think most reasonable fans (if those exist) would agree that by most measures the program is going in the right direction. We made the tourney once, talent level is better, recruiting better players, better facilities etc... I think the fact that the last 5 yrs of BC had almost an identical record (including in conference) to CC is simply tempers the arguments a bit with actual facts.
After starting two threads on the topic, I think it makes sense to give Collins the nod for 2 more seasons, assuming he wants to stay for that period. A number of people have made that argument pretty persuasively, and it makes sense to me. I appreciate thoughtful dialogue. I do think this year will play out below .500 in conference, and next year will be really difficult given the loss of Pardon, Law, and this year’s transfers.
Next year will say a lot. Going back over history, the first two years Collins was here, he was able to recruit based on his Duke connection and family lineage. He is now at a point where he is recruiting on the strength of his accomplishments and talents as a head coach. If, by the end of next year, a point guard and pivot player are showing signs of being competitive in the B1G, he and the program will probably have crossed the Rubicon. If not, he has earned another year to do so.
I will say that after reaching the tournament, to have last year, this year, and probably next year as sub .500 in the conference does make it a stretch to say the program is on an upward trend. I think a better characterization is to say the program is, due to some success, recruiting, and facility investment, at a point where sustained success is possible but not certain.
He is under contract through 2024-25. I seriously doubt NU will buy out 4 years at around $3 million per.
Welsh Ryan renovation cost how much? After 2021, if the result is bottom third of the conference, I imagine a buyout could be reached or Collins could be nudged to move on.
If he would finish 2021, after 8 years as coach, with 7 losing conference seasons, 6 overall losing seasons, and one postseason invitation, would you want to keep him? And seeing how hard it is atN U, would he want to stay?
Thanks for giving coach Collins two more years. Maybe we should call you West Coast AD rather than east baycat99.
In a decade, group-thinking homers will still be invoking the name of one Bill Carmody to deflect any criticism of whomever is the NU coach at that time. Mark it down. Frankly, I think we should blame all this losing on the real culprit: Ricky Byrdsong. Had he never climbed up into the stands and set back the program even further, this program would be further along now and with a credible point guard.
That and the Rex Walters transfer.
That and the Rex Walters transfer.
Wow, I was answering a question from another poster. You really seem to want to make everything about Carmody. It must have been a tough time for you. Did you feel the same about Snyder, Winters, Falk, Foster, Byrdsong and O’neill. None of those had winning B1G seasons either, but it was a different era. Though thinking about it, everyone I know wanted O’Neill gone 5 minutes after he was hired, so take him off the list.
Yes, and they finally got rid of him because even at his peak, in which he recorded (to that date) the three winningest seasons in program history and more postseason berths than all of his predecessors combined, they decided that still wasn't good enough. And that's a good thing! A Big Ten program, even one as historically troubled as NU, should aspire to more than NIT berths and a maximum of 20 wins in a season. (I used to argue otherwise and I was wrong about that.) But the point is that NU wants to play with the big boys now. They're paying Collins like one of the best coaches in the conference, if not the country, and they sunk over $100M into facilities upgrades. They're not doing that so they can continue winning games at the same rate as the previous regime.
All that being said, the jury is still out and I wouldn't want to make any decision on Collins until after the 2020-21 season, since we know this season and next are likely going to be struggles.
Yeah it's hard to disagree with your points.
Essentially we're going to find out whether CCC can build the program that we hope to have for the long run. I'll admit that much of my faith is a somewhat blind belief that he can get the players needed and do a better job coaching by 2021-2022.
Ultimately the real test will be whether he can recruit the guys needed while we're not winning this year and possibly next and whether he can develop another tourney team over the next couple of years.
As far as the job safety calculations go, I'm just going to offer that I expect the AD to be focused on a mega-budget stadium renovation soon, and that will be a massive capital expenditure that means the rest of the AD budget will be tight.
CCC is safe unless recruiting takes a serious nosedive or the program collapses over the next 2 years.
The shame of it, and the reason I had raised the question a month ago when it became clear to me this team had some serious problems, is that the windows of good feeling raised by the tournament success and launch of the new building will be closed in two years. Next year and the year after are really critical, because two years of failure will pretty much reset things to whenCollins washired, which would be a shame. I hope Nance gets healthy, the new recruits are strong, and the next class is even better. Nights like tonight are tough, though. The team on the floor looked overmatched and pretty lost.
Maybe BC sucked when it came to D, but definitely did not suck when it came to coaching O.
Offensive efficiency
2009 - 54th
2010 - 22nd
2011 - 39th
2018 - 221 (not sure if included the PSU game)
Even the Tourney team w/ BMac at the helm was only ranked 122nd.
And the deficiency on D had a lot to do the athletic talent level; the injury and suspension riddled 2012 could have been a difference-maker for BC as he finally had some athletic players - Crawford, Cobb, Hearn, Swop and Lumpkin.
As for rebounding, that's part of the scheme (and not having the athletic talent up front) - eschewing fighting for rebounds to fall back on D.
W/ the struggles the 'Cats have had on O for CC's tenure, wouldn't be a bad idea to bring back some Princeton O concepts and run a hybrid scheme like what Beilen does at UM.