'Tis the season

[OFortuna]

for predictions and projections. Its all there is do right now. Which means it is the season of assumptions -- we have to assume, based on statistics, last year's performance, a little coach speak and our own hopes and prejudices, how things will go. We could turn out to be right, but could just as easily be wrong.

For UK to have a successful season, which most define as a 6-6 or better record and a bowl, consider some of the assumptions that must be made:

1) A young quarterback with limited and not particularly stellar game experience will perform in a consistent, effective manner, throwing accurately and limiting turnovers.
2) Receivers capable of making spectacular plays will also catch balls within their reach.
3) Effective play at offensive tackle will emerge, which will also impact #1.
4) The defensive front seven will exceed expectations. Elam will demonstrate new dedication and effectiveness; Love will be a run stopper; young DE's will be much better with a year of experience; inexperienced LB's will make athletic plays. There will be a pass rush.
5) A freshman punter will step in and perform effectively.
6) Coaching turnover on offense, defense and special teams will have a positive rather than a negative effect.

These, of course, are just a few of the assumptions that must be made if UK is to be "successful;" next year. Taken individually, they are not all that unreasonable. Start piling them up, however, and the odds are they won't all happen. What assumptions do you make? Which do you consider more or less likely to occur?

 

[BigBlueTuckian]

1) QB play is most important. This is a pretty big assumption. Barker would need to have a similar season to Hartline in 2008 when Hartline was starting for the first time. Schedule is tougher this year compared to 2008. Also the Cats beat both Arkansas and Mississippi State by 1 point that season to reach bowl eligibility. Certainly doable this year, but it just highlights the razor-thin margin in which Drew must operate.

2) This one is almost a given. These WRs are now juniors and seniors. Enough with making an ESPN-highlight catch and then disappearing for 2 quarters.

3) I think we're focusing too much on Young and Leavitt and not enough on the guys already on the roster. Time will tell.

4) Most unlikely assumption to happen. Been 10 years since UK had a solid DL. Other than Ware, they've shown very little. No faith in Elam after the spring game. Even with Bud and Z, UK had an average pass rush by SEC standards.

5) To be expected from highly-recruited punters and kickers. Those guys don't need much development. They should be able to do their job from day one.

6) I think our coaching changes are for the better, but there are always growing pains. No coaching transition is ever seamless unless you're the 2001 Miami Hurricanes. We can see good results this year but we won't have our ducks in a row form the very first game. Key to the season is to not have unexpected losses ala Southern Miss or South Carolina, because then it is that much tougher to make up later on.

 

[Oldtrainer_rivals]

for predictions and projections. Its all there is do right now. Which means it is the season of assumptions -- we have to assume, based on statistics, last year's performance, a little coach speak and our own hopes and prejudices, how things will go. We could turn out to be right, but could just as easily be wrong.

For UK to have a successful season, which most define as a 6-6 or better record and a bowl, consider some of the assumptions that must be made:

1) A young quarterback with limited and not particularly stellar game experience will perform in a consistent, effective manner, throwing accurately and limiting turnovers.
2) Receivers capable of making spectacular plays will also catch balls within their reach.
3) Effective play at offensive tackle will emerge, which will also impact #1.
4) The defensive front seven will exceed expectations. Elam will demonstrate new dedication and effectiveness; Love will be a run stopper; young DE's will be much better with a year of experience; inexperienced LB's will make athletic plays. There will be a pass rush.
5) A freshman punter will step in and perform effectively.
6) Coaching turnover on offense, defense and special teams will have a positive rather than a negative effect.

These, of course, are just a few of the assumptions that must be made if UK is to be "successful;" next year. Taken individually, they are not all that unreasonable. Start piling them up, however, and the odds are they won't all happen. What assumptions do you make? Which do you consider more or less likely to occur?

Like Coach Claiborne use to say "the old if-en game".
If-en 1 thru 6 happens CATS will go bowling!

 

[WildCard]

for predictions and projections. Its all there is do right now.

Yup. Football talk is fun but a "simpler assumption" to make is that UK should be at least as good as SC, Vandy, MSU and MO. Just go out and win at least 3 of those 4 games. [winking]

Peace

 

[RV]

for predictions and projections. Its all there is do right now. Which means it is the season of assumptions -- we have to assume, based on statistics, last year's performance, a little coach speak and our own hopes and prejudices, how things will go. We could turn out to be right, but could just as easily be wrong.

For UK to have a successful season, which most define as a 6-6 or better record and a bowl, consider some of the assumptions that must be made:

1) A young quarterback with limited and not particularly stellar game experience will perform in a consistent, effective manner, throwing accurately and limiting turnovers.
2) Receivers capable of making spectacular plays will also catch balls within their reach.
3) Effective play at offensive tackle will emerge, which will also impact #1.
4) The defensive front seven will exceed expectations. Elam will demonstrate new dedication and effectiveness; Love will be a run stopper; young DE's will be much better with a year of experience; inexperienced LB's will make athletic plays. There will be a pass rush.
5) A freshman punter will step in and perform effectively.
6) Coaching turnover on offense, defense and special teams will have a positive rather than a negative effect.

These, of course, are just a few of the assumptions that must be made if UK is to be "successful;" next year. Taken individually, they are not all that unreasonable. Start piling them up, however, and the odds are they won't all happen. What assumptions do you make? Which do you consider more or less likely to occur?

OK - so you named 6 things we didn't do last year and still won 5 and you're saying we need to accomplish all 6 to get one more win?? You even listed 5 things in just one listing (#4) making a total of 10 things we need to improve! And you didn't even mention big-time injuries that hurt like Boom, MacGinnis and Lewis.

Any one of those things by itself will impact the season in a positive manner. The more you add, the more likely UK will have a special season IMHO.

 

[jauk11]

OK - so you named 6 things we didn't do last year and still won 5 and you're saying we need to accomplish all 6 to get one more win?? You even listed 5 things in just one listing (#4) making a total of 10 things we need to improve! And you didn't even mention big-time injuries that hurt like Boom, MacGinnis and Lewis.

Any one of those things by itself will impact the season in a positive manner. The more you add, the more likely UK will have a special season IMHO.

Agree.

What if, for instance in the Vandy game we intercept a pass and return it for a TD. What if we recover a fumble on their five yard line and punch it in for a TD? What if we score on a trick play that is intended to be illegal even at the Pop Warner level from every interpretation of the rules? That is 21 points, it is hard to overcome that many gifts-------although we had a ton of opportunities to do just that last year.

 

[BlueRaider22]

My official "head" prediction is 6 wins and a bowl game. But ever since we hired Gran my "heart" has been simmering with a nice level of excitement. I think there's a decent shot that we are better than 6 wins....that we go 7-8 wins and scare the crap out of a few people.

(Still get blown out 1-2x though)

 

[Deeeefense]

for predictions and projections. Its all there is do right now. Which means it is the season of assumptions -- we have to assume, based on statistics, last year's performance, a little coach speak and our own hopes and prejudices, how things will go. We could turn out to be right, but could just as easily be wrong.

For UK to have a successful season, which most define as a 6-6 or better record and a bowl, consider some of the assumptions that must be made:

1) A young quarterback with limited and not particularly stellar game experience will perform in a consistent, effective manner, throwing accurately and limiting turnovers.
2) Receivers capable of making spectacular plays will also catch balls within their reach.
3) Effective play at offensive tackle will emerge, which will also impact #1.
4) The defensive front seven will exceed expectations. Elam will demonstrate new dedication and effectiveness; Love will be a run stopper; young DE's will be much better with a year of experience; inexperienced LB's will make athletic plays. There will be a pass rush.
5) A freshman punter will step in and perform effectively.
6) Coaching turnover on offense, defense and special teams will have a positive rather than a negative effect.

These, of course, are just a few of the assumptions that must be made if UK is to be "successful;" next year. Taken individually, they are not all that unreasonable. Start piling them up, however, and the odds are they won't all happen. What assumptions do you make? Which do you consider more or less likely to occur?

We have to improve in some areas no doubt, but I'm not sure we have to do all that just to win 6 games, heck if we did all that maybe we win the East?

 

[OFortuna]

Didn't mean to imply that all those things must happen, though I guess that is what I ended up saying. Nevertheless, in order to get to six wins we have to assume something will be different/better, and that areas of question won't all become negatives. So what will make the difference?

 

[Crootin]

Didn't mean to imply that all those things must happen, though I guess that is what I ended up saying. Nevertheless, in order to get to six wins we have to assume something will be different/better, and that areas of question won't all become negatives. So what will make the difference?

Crootin!