Tough conversation: is Allar good enough?

[BiochemPSU]

I still think Drew looks like a big, immature kid when he takes his helmet off. Still has a baby face. In fact, he’s born in 2004; he won’t turn 22 until the season is over. Some of these “college” guys that he plays against are in their 5th, 6th and 7th year. I think that matters. Prefrontal cortex maturation (decision making) can still be developing into your mid 20s. Game speed plus emotional maturity plus still developing decision making brain networking may just lead to some misfires in judgment. His brain just may not be at the same point of maturity as his arm is. Just my two cents.

I don’t think he is an elite athlete playing QB, nor do I think he is a cerebral assassin who is two steps ahead of the defense. He’s a big kid with an accurate arm who doesn’t want to make a mistake.

 

[rudedude]

Did you miss the perfectly thrown deep ball for a TD in tight coverage yesterday?

This is all being overly critical because of him being a 5* QB. He's one of the best, if not the best, in college football.

But we should be pounding the ball...30-40 runs a game. Both backs need 15+ carries. That's not because of Allar. That's how you control the game with an elite D

That was not a perfectly thrown bal IMO. Ross had his man beat and he got a 50-50 ball which he caught miraculously with one arm! He could have led him and “thrown him open”. He had other down the sideline passes where, if he led the receiver, it would have resulted in a big play. But no, pass breakup.Another poster implicated the same earlier.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

Sure, next question? With the average wide receiver play we would’ve beaten Notre Dame in the playoffs. As for beating OSU, who knows? Finishing number two would’ve exceeded expectations.

 

[BCS PSU]

That was not a perfectly thrown bal IMO. Ross had his man beat and he got a 50-50 ball which he caught miraculously with one arm! He could have led him and “thrown him open”. He had other down the sideline passes where, if he led the receiver, it would have resulted in a big play. But no, pass breakup.Anothermposter implicated the same earlier.

Most of his deep passes are 50/50 because he very rarely steps into his throws and often thows them from his back foot.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

Lol Franklin is a soy boy, right. You’re just saying stuff now.

that’s true just having fun. I’ll miss the V game so you guys should have a relaxing game thread

 

[KingLando]

That was not a perfectly thrown bal IMO. Ross had his man beat and he got a 50-50 ball which he caught miraculously with one arm! He could have led him and “thrown him open”. He had other down the sideline passes where, if he led the receiver, it would have resulted in a big play. But no, pass breakup.Anothermposter implicated the same earlier.

That's how he told to throw thr ball in our offense. AK wants every ball slightly underthrown to get the DPI...which was the result.

Trace basically is beloved for throwing that exact pass repeatedly.

 

[Connorpozlee]

My take on Allar is that he’s shown himself to be good enough to be good. He has this year to prove he can be more than that. I’ll not be convinced until he actually does it.

 

[Bvillebaron]

Former 5* prized recruit and now third year starting QB - I think everyone can agree that Allar has IMPROVED every year since arriving at PSU. But is this another case of looks the part vs actual production?

What is Allar’s best game of his career? USC? He also threw two picks in that game. Likely, what we’d come up with was a game vs mediocre to bad competition. He has yet to put together a good performance against an elite defense in his career. His MENTAL aspect of the game doesn’t seem strong - emotional, visibly down, seems anxious and nervous in big moments.

He continues to make the same mistakes with his footwork which results in inaccuracies.

Is it finally to admit the deep ball issue is an Allar issue? The WR needs to be 10 yards wide open for him to even throw it, or he regularly under throws the WR. Does he change his mechanics too? It looks like he aims a deep pass.

I don’t want to ignore what we does well, of course - he has a canon of an arm and throws down the middle of the field + across the far hash better than any qb is college. He’s become a hell of an athlete and moves well out of the pocket as well. But after yesterday, I think it’s time to commit to running the ball and taking as much pressure off Allar as possible. Develop the OL and lean totally on our two elite RBs - I’m talking 40-50 rushing attempts a game.

Gee who would have seen this coming? Let the bashing begin.

 

[Bwifan]

I think we'll find them to be a lot mentally tougher than our fans seem to be.

I hope so, at least.

I did find it interesting that Franklin admitted after the FIU game that PSU is coming out sluggish. Then picked up the pace some in the 2nd half. That is my point. They seem to be playing to the level of competition. This team is not good enough yet to just flip the switch against Oregon and expect to come out fast. I just want to see better execution mainly on the oline and qb. Come out with purpose and put these games away early.

 

[DCLion11]

I love Drew. I just didn't know why Franklin keeps deciding to stick with the QB who is NOT the best for for his offense. Watching Beau, watching Mateer... My God, they would tear the field up in this Kotelnicki offense. Whatever. I appreciate the loyalty as well, it's a tough position to be in but my opinion is that Levis and Pribula would have been the better decisions. That's my opinion and I'm an expert at my opinion.

Time will tell on Pribula. I do think that Franklin's offense, no matter the OC, does seem to operate best with a mobile quarterback. Allar can be mobile and at times last year our offense moved when he ran the ball but i don't think its forte. Our 2016 / 2017 offense was loaded but still think that has been our most explosive offense under Franklin despite the dumb stand-up RPO that did Barkley no favors.

 

[Bwifan]

Time will tell on Pribula. I do think that Franklin's offense, no matter the OC, does seem to operate best with a mobile quarterback. Allar can be mobile and at times last year our offense moved when he ran the ball but i don't think its forte. Our 2016 / 2017 offense was loaded but still think that has been our most explosive offense under Franklin despite the dumb stand-up RPO that did Barkley no favors.

Agreed our current OC has had his most success with a mobile qb for his schemes. Now that being said when he came to PSU he said its his job to take the talent currently here and find ways to make it successful. With Warren he obviously did that. Allar is questionable. I do believe that AK would ultimately like to have a mobile qb. It makes his offense much more difficult to defense. Seems to be where everyone is going including the NFL currently. Not sure going forward how that will work as PSU has Grunk lined up next who may be a little more mobile than Allar, but not a qb that AK has had the most success with.

 

[PSUFTG]

Agreed our current OC has had his most success with a mobile qb for his schemes. Now that being said when he came to PSU he said its his job to take the talent currently here and find ways to make it successful. With Warren he obviously did that. Allar is questionable. I do believe that AK would ultimately like to have a mobile qb. It makes his offense much more difficult to defense. Seems to be where everyone is going including the NFL currently. Not sure going forward how that will work as PSU has Grunk lined up next who may be a little more mobile than Allar, but not a qb that AK has had the most success with.

Take for what its worth:
Since becoming a P4 OC five years ago (Kansas and PSU), Kotelnicki offenses have faced a total of 15 defenses ranked in the top 30.
They have averaged 18 points per game in those contests, with a record of 3 Wins and 12 Losses. (They definitely racked up a lot of points against bottom tier defenses, FWIW)

Even back in his days with Buffalo in the MAC (where they don't have a lot of top 30 defenses): A total of 10 Top 30 defenses faced:
Average Points Scored: 16
Record: 1-9

Overall:
4-21, while averaging 17 points per game.
(And those teams he OCed on all had pretty decent success in their conferences, overall)
The better defenses, at every level - at least to date - do not seem to have a lot of trouble with him.

Fundamentals win out over "Cute", more often than not. That needs to change if PSU is going to realize championship hopes.
Also FWIW: PSU's 2024 offense - which had veterans returning at about every position - scored fewer points than either of Yurcich's last two squads. I imagine that will surprise some folks.

 

[Bwifan]

Take for what its worth:
Since becoming a P4 OC five years ago (Kansas and PSU), Kotelnicki offenses have faced a total of 15 defenses ranked in the top 30.
They have averaged 18 points per game in those contests, with a record of 3 Wins and 12 Losses. (They definitely racked up a lot of points against bottom tier defenses, FWIW)

Even back in his days with Buffalo in the MAC (where they don't have a lot of top 30 defenses): A total of 10 Top 30 defenses faced:
Average Points Scored: 16
Record: 1-9

Overall:
4-21, while averaging 17 points per game.
(And those teams he OCed on all had pretty decent success in their conferences, overall)
The better defenses, at every level - at least to date - do not seem to have a lot of trouble with him.

Fundamentals win out over "Cute", more often than not. That needs to change if PSU is going to realize championship hopes.
Also FWIW: PSU's 2024 offense - which had veterans returning at about every position - scored fewer points than either of Yurcich's last two squads. I imagine that will surprise some folks.

Some interesting data in there. I will give a little leeway that it was Buffalo and Kansas but overall I did not know it was that lopsided. Something to continue to watch this year if they struggle again against top teams.

 

[rigi19040]

If Beau was here and Allar left you would want Allar back. In two years you will want Grunk's backup to be starting.

 

[rigi19040]

Did you miss the perfectly thrown deep ball for a TD in tight coverage yesterday?

This is all being overly critical because of him being a 5* QB. He's one of the best, if not the best, in college football.

But we should be pounding the ball...30-40 runs a game. Both backs need 15+ carries. That's not because of Allar. That's how you control the game with an elite D

System is an issue. How many of those 30-40 runs will be into the back of a OL?

 

[rigi19040]

The running game will have to be top notch to beat the Ducks. Drew will have to make some big plays for sure, but we will need to run the ball against them and keep their skill players off the field.

Wasn't even top notch vs sub par teams.

 

[rigi19040]

I would take Pribula over Allar. I don’t care if Allar is a better NFL prospect. Pribula has it upstairs to be a winner in college similar to Trace McSorely. Allar lacks that killer instinct and core strength. He gets frustrated. He already looks like he will get locked onto Reynolds (no offense to him, he will be a good TE) as a safety valve for the rest of the season instead of using the wrs. It was effing FIU yesterday and he cannot handle the pressure.

You had Pribula and Allar. If you had Pribula and Allar left you would want Allar.

Missouri offense system > PSU system.

Notice how our problem receivers turn into #1s at their transfer schools? Two QBs in a row also improved at new school.

 

[PSUFTG]

I will give a little leeway that it was Buffalo and Kansas but overall I did not know it was that lopsided.

True.
That said, those teams were .500 (just a tad above, IIRC) during those times (basically, the tenures of Lance Liepold as a head coach). So they were definitely competitive - but not great - for their level.

Of course, every team or every offense plays better against lousy opponents - but the record of offenses under Kotelnicki are strikingly hot/cold based on opponent (which doesn't surprise me, but may surprise some).

Honestly, a lot like HCJF win-loss record - outstanding against poor/mediocre teams (Rarely loses to a dudder, which is to his credit. There IS something to be said for that.), but horrid against quality teams (his record against Top 25 is rather shocking.
A lot of folks are familiar with the "vs Top10" bit, but I think the really disconcerting number is vs all Top 25 teams - 15-30 vs ranked opponents since coming to PSU
(Someone can double-check the math, I had to do so myself - because I had a hard time believing it was that bad. But it is - when I think it would be reasonable to expect a solid winning record vs Top 25.)

 

[WPB_lion]

Did you miss the perfectly thrown deep ball for a TD in tight coverage yesterday?

This is all being overly critical because of him being a 5* QB. He's one of the best, if not the best, in college football.

But we should be pounding the ball...30-40 runs a game. Both backs need 15+ carries. That's not because of Allar. That's how you control the game with an elite D

Allar needs to keep the ball more on the options. Right now, the defenses are guessing he is going to hand the ball off and not run it himself and they are right 100% of the time. Hopefully the coaches are telling him to hand it off because of the level of competition and chance of injury when he runs the ball. However, if you are not practicing your reads and when you should keep the ball, it may be hard to turn it on when the big games happen.

 

[Kinglando is never wrong]

Allar’s problem isn’t talent, it’s consistency.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

Collins was doing very well until mid season 1993, he had Engram, Jurevicous, Scott, and Brady to throw to FWIW. He was a top ten pick. Allar hasn't had that many top quality receivers to throw to but will still probably be a top ten pick in next year's draft.

 

[KingLando]

Allar needs to keep the ball more on the options. Right now, the defenses are guessing he is going to hand the ball off and not run it himself and they are right 100% of the time. Hopefully the coaches are telling him to hand it off because of the level of competition and chance of injury when he runs the ball. However, if you are not practicing your reads and when you should keep the ball, it may be hard to turn it on when the big games happen.

He's not a dual threat QB. If anything those need to be removed from the offense. It's poor coaching to all them.

At no point to we want him taking additional hits running the ball.

I'm 99% sure him keeping it isn't even a real option

 

[WPB_lion]

He's not a dual threat QB. If anything those need to be removed from the offense. It's poor coaching to all them.

At no point to we want him taking additional hits running the ball.

I'm 99% sure him keeping it isn't even a real option

I don't disagree with you that the option should be removed if Allar keeping the ball isn't even a real option.

However, PSU is running option plays so I have to believe Allar keeping the ball is an option. If PSU continues to run the option against the better teams and the Defense ignores the possibility of a QB run, Allar needs to make the defense pay to keep the defense honest. Otherwise, the play call is a waste.

WIth respect to taking hits, he is playing football, not patty cake. No team wants their starting QB to take unnecessary hits. However, when the option is part of your offense (and it is definitely part of PSU's offense), your QB is going to have to take hits to make the offense work. Allar is 6'5" and 235 pounds so he is not fragile.

 

[DaytonRickster]

Take for what its worth:
Since becoming a P4 OC five years ago (Kansas and PSU), Kotelnicki offenses have faced a total of 15 defenses ranked in the top 30.
They have averaged 18 points per game in those contests, with a record of 3 Wins and 12 Losses. (They definitely racked up a lot of points against bottom tier defenses, FWIW)

Even back in his days with Buffalo in the MAC (where they don't have a lot of top 30 defenses): A total of 10 Top 30 defenses faced:
Average Points Scored: 16
Record: 1-9

Overall:
4-21, while averaging 17 points per game.
(And those teams he OCed on all had pretty decent success in their conferences, overall)
The better defenses, at every level - at least to date - do not seem to have a lot of trouble with him.

Fundamentals win out over "Cute", more often than not. That needs to change if PSU is going to realize championship hopes.
Also FWIW: PSU's 2024 offense - which had veterans returning at about every position - scored fewer points than either of Yurcich's last two squads. I imagine that will surprise some folks.

Very enlightening stats.

 

[PSUForever]

Take for what its worth:
Since becoming a P4 OC five years ago (Kansas and PSU), Kotelnicki offenses have faced a total of 15 defenses ranked in the top 30.
They have averaged 18 points per game in those contests, with a record of 3 Wins and 12 Losses. (They definitely racked up a lot of points against bottom tier defenses, FWIW)

Even back in his days with Buffalo in the MAC (where they don't have a lot of top 30 defenses): A total of 10 Top 30 defenses faced:
Average Points Scored: 16
Record: 1-9

Overall:
4-21, while averaging 17 points per game.
(And those teams he OCed on all had pretty decent success in their conferences, overall)
The better defenses, at every level - at least to date - do not seem to have a lot of trouble with him.

Fundamentals win out over "Cute", more often than not. That needs to change if PSU is going to realize championship hopes.
Also FWIW: PSU's 2024 offense - which had veterans returning at about every position - scored fewer points than either of Yurcich's last two squads. I imagine that will surprise some folks.

You need to look at the talent level differences between his Kansas and Buffalo teams versus these top 30 defenses. My sense is those teams and specifically his offenses were over matched many times vs a top 30 defense You would hope his teams at Kansas and Buffalo at least a few times could out perform what their ranking and talent level was but I guess not. Some of his Kansas teams were pretty good so maybe the talent level was close to top 30, that is a hard thing to measure. I don't think Kansas nor Buffalo were recruiting top 30 classes but you would need to analyze each of the opponents.

The main point now that he is at Penn State with an elite talent level on offense is the same point we harp on with Franklin. When faced with equal or slightly better (not significantly better) talent can a coach K offense put up points and win? Looking at last season, vs Oregon we did well but not sure how highly ranked the Oregon defense was. He failed miserably vs Ohio State but you do wonder if Wallace makes that catch could things be different. The goal line series of plays was horrible. Finally vs ND I thought the offense was pretty good. You can't blame Coach K for the terrible execution between Allar and Singleton at the goal line. We get 6 there and we score 28 versus a very good ND defense. Not sure how much responsibility Coach K needs to take for the final pick.

My take is yes there should be valid concern if Coach K can come up with an innovative game plan to beat an elite defense. However, he has had some success but it has not been consistent.

 

[Arivacalion]

Yeah, me crushing you because I know how to make logically valid and sound arguments.

Again he is a Penn State hater and troll who takes over boards and it is becoming more clear by the day he has taken over this one also. I didn't think he would take over the McAndrew board but he has once again evaded banning. Surprised to say the least.

 

[KingLando]

I don't disagree with you that the option should be removed if Allar keeping the ball isn't even a real option.

However, PSU is running option plays so I have to believe Allar keeping the ball is an option. If PSU continues to run the option against the better teams and the Defense ignores the possibility of a QB run, Allar needs to make the defense pay to keep the defense honest. Otherwise, the play call is a waste.

WIth respect to taking hits, he is playing football, not patty cake. No team wants their starting QB to take unnecessary hits. However, when the option is part of your offense (and it is definitely part of PSU's offense), your QB is going to have to take hits to make the offense work. Allar is 6'5" and 235 pounds so he is not fragile.

I've seen nothing that indicates it's actually a read option--just plays that AK has and he still uses them as designed runs
And a prototypical pocket passer running option is unnecessary hits.
The offense has to be adapted to who you have. Do you see other prototypical pocket passers running read/option?

 

[Calabrin]

Again he is a Penn State hater and troll who takes over boards and it is becoming more clear by the day he has taken over this one also. I didn't think he would take over the McAndrew board but he has once again evaded banning. Surprised to say the least.

That's a shame.

I don't mind having discussions with people. I even understand that they can become intense sometimes. Just... engage honestly. You know? How hard is it to not make stuff up, and not sling mud at people?

 

[PSUFTG]

You need to look at the talent level differences between his Kansas and Buffalo teams versus these top 30 defenses. My sense is those teams and specifically his offenses were over matched many times vs a top 30 defense You would hope his teams at Kansas and Buffalo at least a few times could out perform what their ranking and talent level was but I guess not. Some of his Kansas teams were pretty good so maybe the talent level was close to top 30, that is a hard thing to measure. I don't think Kansas nor Buffalo were recruiting top 30 classes but you would need to analyze each of the opponents.

The main point now that he is at Penn State with an elite talent level on offense is the same point we harp on with Franklin. When faced with equal or slightly better (not significantly better) talent can a coach K offense put up points and win? Looking at last season, vs Oregon we did well but not sure how highly ranked the Oregon defense was. He failed miserably vs Ohio State but you do wonder if Wallace makes that catch could things be different. The goal line series of plays was horrible. Finally vs ND I thought the offense was pretty good. You can't blame Coach K for the terrible execution between Allar and Singleton at the goal line. We get 6 there and we score 28 versus a very good ND defense. Not sure how much responsibility Coach K needs to take for the final pick.

My take is yes there should be valid concern if Coach K can come up with an innovative game plan to beat an elite defense. However, he has had some success but it has not been consistent.

Without getting too deep, it does have to be normalized.
Here is the relevant "Cliff's Notes"


On average, "not top 30" defenses give up around 26 points per game.

On average, Top 30 defenses give up around 20 points per game.

One would expect that a given offense would either score less than 20 against top defenses, AND less than 26 against average defenses.
Or more than 20, AND more than 26.... depending on how good their offense is.

Kotelnicki offenses have averaged around 32 against "not top 30" defenses (well over what would be expected given the quality of opposition), and around 17 against top 30 defenses (well below what would be expected given the quality of opposition)..... some folks won't understand that, and that's OK.
But what that means is you have performance that is very good - ALL things considered - against mediocre, but poor performance- ALL things considered - against quality. (Really, very similar to CJF PSU teams' W/L performance against good vs mediocre teams).
And that any offense, on average, would score roughly 6-7 ppg less against quality (top 30) teams.
Kotelnicki teams have scored 15 MORE against mediocre - or 15 LESS against quality (depending on how you want to look at it). A rather large and out of line disparity over 110 or so total games.

It is what it is.
So far, the same has played out at PSU for Kotelnicki (though it is a small sample size at PSU thus far)

 

[KingLando]

Again he is a Penn State hater and troll who takes over boards and it is becoming more clear by the day he has taken over this one also. I didn't think he would take over the McAndrew board but he has once again evaded banning. Surprised to say the least.

You underestimate me
Also, how is the "Penn State hater" the one defending the Penn Stat QB lol

 

[KingLando]

That's a shame.

I don't mind having discussions with people. I even understand that they can become intense sometimes. Just... engage honestly. You know? How hard is it to not make stuff up, and not sling mud at people?

You're not being honest at all during this conversation
You're the one attacking me not the other way around
It's adorable you don't get that.

 

[Moogy]

Lol Franklin is a soy boy, right. You’re just saying stuff now.

Now?

 

[slwlion]

Former 5* prized recruit and now third year starting QB - I think everyone can agree that Allar has IMPROVED every year since arriving at PSU. But is this another case of looks the part vs actual production?

What is Allar’s best game of his career? USC? He also threw two picks in that game. Likely, what we’d come up with was a game vs mediocre to bad competition. He has yet to put together a good performance against an elite defense in his career. His MENTAL aspect of the game doesn’t seem strong - emotional, visibly down, seems anxious and nervous in big moments.

He continues to make the same mistakes with his footwork which results in inaccuracies.

Is it finally to admit the deep ball issue is an Allar issue? The WR needs to be 10 yards wide open for him to even throw it, or he regularly under throws the WR. Does he change his mechanics too? It looks like he aims a deep pass.

I don’t want to ignore what we does well, of course - he has a canon of an arm and throws down the middle of the field + across the far hash better than any qb is college. He’s become a hell of an athlete and moves well out of the pocket as well. But after yesterday, I think it’s time to commit to running the ball and taking as much pressure off Allar as possible. Develop the OL and lean totally on our two elite RBs - I’m talking 40-50 rushing attempts a game.

After my last posting screw, up I prob shouldn't say this, but He brings to mind Hackenberg.

 

[BillDiehlNorstar]

So we're back to not understanding a ball being thrown behind someone isn't always on the QB. It's often on the route but you somehow know that's on Allar?

This thread exists due to unreasonable expectations because of the stars by his name when he signed.

You're all making too much of a game in which our entire team slept walked through. Do you think LSU has concerns over Nussmeier? Do you think anyone on the team is concerned about Drew?

This is our fan base not being used to 5* kids...especially pocket passers.

Wasn’t that type of route. Just wrong.

 

[Calabrin]

You're not being honest at all during this conversation
You're the one attacking me not the other way around
It's adorable you don't get that.

What did I say that was dishonest? Quote me directly.
Where did I attack you? Quote me directly.

 

[bbrown]

My take on Allar is that he’s shown himself to be good enough to be good. He has this year to prove he can be more than that. I’ll not be convinced until he actually does it.

Right there with you. I think he's a good to maybe even very good college QB but he's not great or elite yet. I also think if stays at very good we should be good enough to win a NC.

 

[bbrown]

I did find it interesting that Franklin admitted after the FIU game that PSU is coming out sluggish. Then picked up the pace some in the 2nd half. That is my point. They seem to be playing to the level of competition. This team is not good enough yet to just flip the switch against Oregon and expect to come out fast. I just want to see better execution mainly on the oline and qb. Come out with purpose and put these games away early.

I get what you're saying but really we have seemingly been a 2nd half team since 2016. Not sure why.

 

[bbrown]

Time will tell on Pribula. I do think that Franklin's offense, no matter the OC, does seem to operate best with a mobile quarterback. Allar can be mobile and at times last year our offense moved when he ran the ball but i don't think its forte. Our 2016 / 2017 offense was loaded but still think that has been our most explosive offense under Franklin despite the dumb stand-up RPO that did Barkley no favors.

In order for this offense to run at peak efficiency there has to be a threat and some decent runs by the QB. I think they will be coming. No reason for Drew to take unnecessary hits and FIU was playing very hard. We will start to see Drew moving and running in 2 weeks.

 

[bbrown]

Allar needs to keep the ball more on the options. Right now, the defenses are guessing he is going to hand the ball off and not run it himself and they are right 100% of the time. Hopefully the coaches are telling him to hand it off because of the level of competition and chance of injury when he runs the ball. However, if you are not practicing your reads and when you should keep the ball, it may be hard to turn it on when the big games happen.

 

[Nitt1300]

After my last posting screw, up I prob shouldn't say this, but He brings to mind Hackenberg.

he's way better than Hackenburg