Trump’s grade on the economy: Steady B
President Trump’s protectionist trade agenda has economists worried about a downturn. But for now, the Trump economy is robust, according to the Yahoo Finance Trumponomics report card.
The Trump economy has earned a B grade for the last 5 months, according to our assessment, which is based on data provided by
Moody’s Analytics on six key measures of the economy. The composition of the grade has changed in recent months, however, in ways that reveal what’s going well in the economy, and what risks remain.
The Yahoo Finance Trumponomics report card measures Trump’s performance on the economy against seven prior first-term presidents at the same point in their presidencies. (Check out our
full methodology.) Here’s how the Trump economy compares with that of his predecessors:
Source: Moody’s Analytics, Yahoo Finance
Job growth has been strong under Trump—but it was stronger under Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter at the same point in their presidencies. Clinton came into office shortly after a recession ended, and the economy powered forward for his entire two terms. Carter’s term began during a muscular recovery, but that petered out by his last year in office. So strong job growth during Trump’s first year or two won’t necessarily persist.
Trump’s term began with the top grade for earnings growth, relative to the other presidents. But he has fallen from first to fourth in that category, the main reason his grade isn’t higher than B.
Earnings growth at the 18-month point was stronger under Presidents Obama, George H. W. Bush and Carter. Pay has been picking up this year, but income growth has been a weak link in the economy since the current expansion began in 2009.