Tyler Herro makes NBA history
- Thread starter Glenn's Take
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Probably not the best decision in hindsight given time and score, but I wouldn't call it dumb, much less the dumbest shot ever. They were down 5 with 40 seconds to play. A layup moves it within 3, so best case scenario they get a stop and then need a 3 to tie with only like 15 seconds left at best.
In this scenario, a wide open 3 is a high percentage shot that gets you within 2 points, allowing you a much better chance to win. Also, he just hit a 3, so he probably felt he had a high chance of making, and that he could also follow his shot if necessary for a putback because he was in front of everyone. I have done the same thing on multiple occasions in games. For a shooter, this is definitely not a dumb decision.
In this scenario, a wide open 3 is a high percentage shot that gets you within 2 points, allowing you a much better chance to win. Also, he just hit a 3, so he probably felt he had a high chance of making, and that he could also follow his shot if necessary for a putback because he was in front of everyone. I have done the same thing on multiple occasions in games. For a shooter, this is definitely not a dumb decision.
That is what the NBA is nowadays.
Yeah, the layup was the right play but being down 5 and in the heat (no pun intended) of the moment, I could totally see someone, especially someone of Herro’s shooting ability, taking the wide open three instead.
I'm not going to die on this hill. But I can count to 5...
1. You are down five with roughly 37 seconds to go.
2. If you make the lay-up you are down three, which means to tie the game, you have to get a stop without fouling or giving up any score, then HIT A THREE, and get another stop if any time remains.
3. Except that second 3 will be aggressively defended, and if the clock gets down low enough, you might even be fouled to prevent a 3.
4. To realistically have a chance to force OT or win, you have to have two scores and a stop, with one of the scores being a 3.
5. You are never going to get a more open 3.
Yes, I know there are other ways to play it: Foul, hope for missed FTs, and create extra possessions, etc. But those almost never work.
1. You are down five with roughly 37 seconds to go.
2. If you make the lay-up you are down three, which means to tie the game, you have to get a stop without fouling or giving up any score, then HIT A THREE, and get another stop if any time remains.
3. Except that second 3 will be aggressively defended, and if the clock gets down low enough, you might even be fouled to prevent a 3.
4. To realistically have a chance to force OT or win, you have to have two scores and a stop, with one of the scores being a 3.
5. You are never going to get a more open 3.
Yes, I know there are other ways to play it: Foul, hope for missed FTs, and create extra possessions, etc. But those almost never work.
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Yeah, this is a lesson in context. It didn't look very smart but in reality I think this was the play. So, actually, could be argued it was a savvy move.
With the way he hits threes and how open he was, I don't hate it. He hurried it and didn't gather himself well, but that shot is basically a layup for him. If he makes the shot, they are one stop and another three away from a win.
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Looks like almost every regular season game I’ve randomly come across for the last three or so years.
This is a case of conventional wisdom versus the analytics revolution as much as anything. Yes, the layup is almost automatic there and would make it a one possession game, but would it have actually increased the Heat’s chances of winning there?
One key thing that’s been found once data analysis actually became a bigger part of sports is that a lot of traditional strategies to “extend the game” are better at prolonging the inevitable than actually increasing your chances to win, which should be the actual goal. The flipside of this is that certain aggressive strategies like going for 2 earlier in the game in football or pulling the goalie earlier in hockey can actually increase your chances to win by a non-negligible amount at the tradeoff of taking any remaining suspense out of a loss a little earlier if they fail. I don’t have the tools at my disposal to run the analysis on this play, but I suspect with that time and score that scoring 3 instead of 2 there may have potentially increased their chances enough to be worth going for while he was wide open even though it didn’t work out this time. Certainly the odds would be close enough that I wouldn’t call it stupid.
One key thing that’s been found once data analysis actually became a bigger part of sports is that a lot of traditional strategies to “extend the game” are better at prolonging the inevitable than actually increasing your chances to win, which should be the actual goal. The flipside of this is that certain aggressive strategies like going for 2 earlier in the game in football or pulling the goalie earlier in hockey can actually increase your chances to win by a non-negligible amount at the tradeoff of taking any remaining suspense out of a loss a little earlier if they fail. I don’t have the tools at my disposal to run the analysis on this play, but I suspect with that time and score that scoring 3 instead of 2 there may have potentially increased their chances enough to be worth going for while he was wide open even though it didn’t work out this time. Certainly the odds would be close enough that I wouldn’t call it stupid.
Glenn is to this board what Stan the Caddy was to Kramer's golf game.
Yeah much rather take 3s down 5 or more in the last minute than 2s. The math just doesnt add up driving for 2s and here's the math on that. Drives me crazy when I see teams down 5 or 7 and driving for the layup.
Lets say like this there's 40 seconds left and we're down 5. You have to think bout how many possessions we have left. If there is a change of possession every 7 second thats 6 possessions give or take, 3 for us and 3 for them. Since we're also at the point where we have to foul (because the could otherwise run out the clock) then lets assume at worse case the team ahead are going to get 1 point per posession (one out of two at the foul line) likely more but lets just use that.
That's 3 more points for them which means we have 8 points to make up in 3 possessions. Two's aint gonna get it done and thats with the other guys just getting one point per possession (50% FT).
You could say well we'll foul quicker and make more possessions out of it but that just gives them that many more times at the line too. I'm jacking up 3s and hoping if I miss to get a quick put pack for 2 as a backup every time in those situations.
He was thinking about that practice where he hit about 6 in a row and got everyone out of running suicides.
I don’t think pulling up for a wide open 3 down 5 in a regular season game is all that dumb. Yeah he could have layed it up but you see that shot drilled all the time.
Would it have been the dumbest play if Steph Curry did the same thing? Asking for a friend.
Just stopping by to say Tyler Herro is genius if you’ve ever heard him give an interview. It’s a real struggle.
Reed Shepard (who?) did that 6 times last year and made all 6. I know it's a different situation for Herro with the score but they're both white and played for Kentucky so I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that.
. Hope you learned something
Herro dominating tonight n playoff playing game on road.
OP probably in his mom's basement rocking out on guitar hero.
OP probably in his mom's basement rocking out on guitar hero.
If he had done this at UK Cal might not have played him the rest of the season lol, but I agree with you. Makes more sense than it appears to at first
So it's time for the yearly question.. Where will Billy Donovan coach next year. It's obvious the ceiling in Chicago with him.
Northern Iowa did the exact same thing against KU in the NCAAT but they made the shot. Also knocked them out which made all of us very happy.
Ha, I remember that. Loved Herro when he was here (and still pull for him). Will always remember that clutch shot he hit against Houston in the NCAAT to give us the lead late.
He really gets to the rim these days and finishes or kicks. Joy to watch, especially with a Franziskaner Weissbeer in hand.
Herro indeed went off tonight with a big performance. Here are his highlights.