I just hope they come out with some fire and determination and don't play soft as Charmin
UK currently an 8.5 point favorite over UNC
- Thread starter TarHeelInCharlotte
- Start date
I like this post on a UNC board: 
If we lose by 8+ this board is going to be ultra toxic (I'll be part of it.)
If we lose by 8+ this board is going to be ultra toxic (I'll be part of it.)
I put the $75 I won from the Louisville football moneyline on the UNC moneyline. I’m with you… I like Pope but it’s win or profit for me.
Like most people, I expected UK to be a 2.5 pt to 3.5 pt favorite. The line being at 8.5 means Vegas thought nobody would have bet on UNCheat at the spreads we expected. Setting it so much above what was expected suggests to me they want people betting on UNC and that has been the case in the point spread betting so far(over 80% on UNC).
I expect Kentucky to cover but when I used to bet I had one rule: I never bet on any Kentucky games because I knew I didn't see the Wildcats impartially like I did with other teams.
Yeah no that's pretty much the definnition of small sample lol.
This is like when Kam opened up 0 for3 and people were losing their minds here.
Mo-D is going to be out
Jaland is going to be out
Obviously JQ is going to be out
Jaland is going to be out
Obviously JQ is going to be out
Our back court minus Seth has been suspect—at times downright bad. Awful against MSU.
Neither Evans nor Bogavac are plus athletes. In theory they’re both good shooters but totally inconsistent thus far.
Our second half against Kansas was the only 20 minutes we looked elite. And that was with Trimble.
Neither Evans nor Bogavac are plus athletes. In theory they’re both good shooters but totally inconsistent thus far.
Our second half against Kansas was the only 20 minutes we looked elite. And that was with Trimble.
In their recent loss to Michigan State, UNC shot a dismal 17% from three (4-of-23):
• Their top players, including Caleb Wilson and Kyan Evans, went 0-for-8 from deep in that game.
• If UofK can force UNC to shoot from outside again, they’ll have a major edge.
• Their top players, including Caleb Wilson and Kyan Evans, went 0-for-8 from deep in that game.
• If UofK can force UNC to shoot from outside again, they’ll have a major edge.
Agreed. Hope I am just experiencing bias from recent games against decent competition, but I don't feel good about this one.
Typically, if a line seems off the general public will hammer the bet and the opposite occurs. From a gambling perspective this bolds well for UK.
UNC +8.5 is crazy so bettors will likely jump on it. UK wins= Vegas wins. At least, that's my optimistic blue tinted hope.
UNC +8.5 is crazy so bettors will likely jump on it. UK wins= Vegas wins. At least, that's my optimistic blue tinted hope.
Not quite sure I follow the entire logic, but I think I get what you're saying, and I agree. The line was clearly set to entice betting on UNC -- Vegas probably didn't think there would be enough UNC bettors with a realistic line. The line will shift towards a more realistic number as more UNC bets pour in.
I look at this game as an even match -- should be a good one. Both teams got handled by Mich. St. Both teams have about the same uninspiring talent, except Wilson for UNC who can change a game by himself. UK counters with much better coaching.
UK needs to win this one, and it's quite winnable -- getting man-handled here will not be good, and the wheels may come off. Hoping for the best.
I can tell you this, I was at the last game and now I can see how we get down 20 early against good teams. This team starts extremely slow on both ends. The first 8 or 9 minutes of that game were awful. That has to change for this team to have success moving forward.
I know it's a betting line and not really a prediction, but UK being an 8.5 point favorite is odd to me. The Seth Trimble loss was a big one for UNC and they're no world beater, but then neither is UK at this point in my opinion. If I were Pope I think I would try to manipulate Caleb Wilson into trying to do too much or even take over the game, but I think that strategy really needed Dioubate to work well - I think his defense on Wilson could have given him fits and led to a bunch of negative plays.
Oh I totally agree with that.
It was an issue last season as well. Even in the games vs big teams that we eventually came back in. I believe we were down big in both the Duke and Gonzaga games.
Having said that, I do think that maybe just maybe we are overreacting a bit. This game is at home against a team that is not nearly the quality of UL and MSU. This should be a win. I don't think we should be saying "well this team couldn't beat UL on the road or MSU on a neutral court, so they can't beat UNC at home"...........totally different game. FWIW we weren't even favored in the UL game. That was always going to be 50/50.........maybe even way more to UL side considering how much that line moved towards them as we got closer to the game. And while it's a bit discouraging this team was down by nearly 20 not once but twice in that game, you also need to take the positive in that ........4 mins to go that game was 88-84............we had every chance to win that game. As unlikely as that looked like for the majority of it.
MSU ...........a team that couldn't shoot 3s coming into that game just went insane from 3. And sometimes you just tip your hat and move on when things like that happen.
Yea it’s really hard for me to bet on the cats. I really understand what your saying.
You don't think our non defense had a lot to do with MSU going off from 3?
Carolina will win by 18. I have NO reason to believe the CATS can compete on this level. Sad time to be a UK fan all around.
As a non bettor, im shocked at this line. Anytime i see something like this, makes me think some people know something others do not.
No. They got blown out by 100 per cent of the real teams they played.
3 point defense tends to be more random than 2 point defense. Usually offenses have more control with 3 point FG% than defenses do.
It's not to say we've defended well.........we clearly did not in those two games. But I don't see that as a long term issue with this team going forward.
I think a lot of that too is connected to getting JQ in there. He'll no doubt help the interterior defense which will also help the 3 point FG defense as well IMO.
That's great. It's still a grand total of 2 games.
lol I mean this is like the opposite of what people felt when we beat Purdue in an exhibition game and everyone was going nuts about it.
Stop putting too much weight on small samples.
Houston opened the season up 4-3 last year. They made the finals.
In 24 Alabama went 6-5 in the beginning of the year. They made the final four.
There are countless examples of this in the history of college basketball.
I'd suggest to just wait and see before writing this team off.
8 points in basketball isn’t very much and the home team usually gets 3-4 so that spread is a virtual toss up which is what oddsmakers aim for
8 points is not a big spread that’s 3 possessions and when you add free throws at the end you can still win a really tight game by 8-10 points when it’s said and done
It seems weird. The oddsmakers must think Kentucky is ready to explode.
Uh, on a neural floor, I would have UNC as a 2 point favorite. At UNC, I would have UNC as a 6.5 favorite.
At Rupp, I would’ve had the Cats at -2.5…
Lines are set to try and get equal money on both sides.
At 8.5 tonight, there can’t be a lot of gamblers betting for UK to cover that. I hope we win by 40,
However, I can’t put money on UK to cover that, and I never bet against teams I root for. I’m staying away.
Who scheduled this game so damn late? Seriously....an 8:30/9:30 tip off is asinine.
True but then again teams that are an 8 point favorite win 76% of the time.
So it is kind of big when u look at it that way
I recall MSU was awful from 3 too. Until they played a Mark Pope defense. Then, it was like the 2016 golden state warriors out there.