UK vs USM prediction thread
- Thread starter ScrewDuke1
- Start date
Just a question. You think you're turning a corner with a new HC, a new OC who failed in his first try at being a play calling OC, losing your top 2 WR one of whom is now in the NFL and losing one of your two 1000 yard RBs? If so, I'm impressed.
This game is going to be EPIC!!!!! I can't believe all the hype, the build-up, the anticipation of another AMAZING season of exciting UK Football !! Wow!!!
It's going to be a BATTLE going back and forth, but in the end, UK will edge Southern Miss 47-43 with a go-ahead TD late in the 4th quarter.
I don't you'll see anything exotic from UK in terms of blitzing, unless they can't get any pressure at all during the first quarter.
A new HC that knows Southern Miss football as he was our DC in the past. the OC will be a new learn but we have a senior QB who is exceptionally smart and knows how to get the right play called, we are still strong at the receiver group,, and you do know that the better of the running backs is still here. Ito Smith had 1128 yards while Richard (who's showing out with the Oakland Raiders) had 1098. We also have a returning running back who was out for last season with an injury (George Payne) and other quality running backs. So yes we do. And not just us but generally where the home team gets a give 7 points the line is only 6.5 favoring KY. So closer than you may wish it to be. One additional point is that the OC does get some really great offensive knowledge from a 4 yr starter at QB and a center that is really good and will get the line play called correctly. And we as some think have nothing to lose. We don't come to just play our team comes to win. Good luck Saturday...
The key to this game will be your pass rush and how we hold up against your run game. I am going to read up on your starting rb and your defensive line. Our QB doesn't have a huge arm, but he is very accurate. I would say our defensive tackles are undersized.
No need to read up on our DL. I'll sum it up for you... It isn't very big (other than Elam who hasn't been very impressive), lacks depth and it's our biggest concern. We've had some bad luck with some talent on the DL that is no longer with the team.
Our RBs are very good though. Boom Williams is one of the best in the SEC and we have several behind him that are more than capable.
Too bad Lorenzen is out of eligibility. That would have been awesome to see a 300lb+ qb play in person.
That is all well and good. But you need to know that your OC calls some of the worst plays in the worst situations possible.
Trailing Auburn 30-27 we had the ball at the 46 yard line needing only about 15 more yards to get in FG position. 2 and 5 and our OC (now your OC) calls a draw play, gets stopped after 2 yards and runs 20 seconds off the clock. That's just one example and there are plenty more. We had 1st and goal from inside the 5 yard line against Vanderbilt, twice, and came away with 0 points. Some of that was play calling and some of it was having the wrong personnel on the field.
You better hope your QB gets to call the plays. Because if Dawson calls them.... good luck.
I'm going to go out a limb here and predict 16-18 beers before game time. Looking forward to a great weekend, hitting the road tomorrow!
I don't see it as being a homer. They have some good players but we are much more talented than them. I'm not the least bit worried about this game.
So you're saying he's unpredictable and calls plays nobody would assume he'd call??? LOL Gotta be hard to plan a defense against that.
He calls dumber plays than most defenses probably expect. I guess he is unpredictable in that regard.
I believe this may have had something to do with his predictable play calls.
https://www.seccountry.com/kentucky...-former-kentucky-oc-shannon-dawsons-criticism
https://www.seccountry.com/kentucky...-former-kentucky-oc-shannon-dawsons-criticism
You do realize that we returned nearly every player from the previous year and the numbers with Dawson were significantly worse than they were with Neil Brown?
No disrespect intended but I found most of that reply odd. The fact that your HC has been an assistant at So. Miss. isn't relevant. The line is tight because of our struggles last year. I'm surprised that you're saying things like your QB can more or less, drag your OC along. That's really odd. I personally think you have some huge challenges in game 1. A new HC brings a new philosophy and a new OC brings a new playbook. When I look at last years schedule for your team, you lost to every decent team you played and you played in the distinctly weaker division of your conference. This team of yours isn't as talented as last years. Ours is more talented than last years and we have no QB controversy this year. If we lose, Stoops isn't going anywhere but I think he becomes a lame duck. Lots of marbles on the line this Saturday. May the better team win.
How do you come to the conclusion that we are less talented than last year? We are picked to win our conference. It may be a ****** conference, but we are no joke. We have a great QB and a great RB. Our C is regarded as the 3 or 4th best by most NFL scouts. We return both of our starting Guards. We have 2 new OTs. One of which hosted Stoops in his home and was offered a scholarship to UK (Pollard). Our #2 receiver is a former Florida State signee. Our offense is gonna score... a lot.
Defensively, I am slightly concerned about one of our DT positions. I think UK will score. I like the rest of our defense. Our DEs are real good. LBs experienced and solid. CBs are ok. Our safeties are dangerous hitters. I actually believe our best player regardless of position is #12 Denarious Antoine. He will have a healthy career in the NFL. He is a head hunter. Started his career at Oklahoma State with a long list of offers.
Our FG kicker gives me headaches. Because of this, I give UK the edge. Anyone expecting a blowout win for the Cats, clearly hasn't done their homework.
Good game Gents! Wish I could be there.
Take it from me man. I'm probably one of the more in touch realistic fans on this board (most view me as pessimistic). If I say we're going to lose a game, believe me we're going to lose that game. And if I say we're going to win, we're going to win. I was on this board all year last season pleaing for Dawson's job. Game in and game out, clueless play call after clueless play call (keep in mind it was the first time he called plays at the D-1 level and in the SEC nonetheless, piss poor decision by stoops to say the least). I've had season wickets for 10+ years. I've seen the worst of the worst UK football first hand. But not a single coach not a single bad team had me decide to cancel my season tickets. That changed when Dawson was here. Game in and game out. After every single game I would scream at this board (whom 99% were for sure Dawson was the man for the job because 99% of this board is stoops apologists and they believe he is all knowing and 'the best option available') that if Dawson returns as OC. I will cancel my season tickets. Every single game. After the season. It turned from after every single game. To every single day. I'd start the day off with a Dawson needs to go thread. Every single day was begging and pleaing that him and his pathetic coaching and attitude and excuses would leave the program. I can't count the number of times when he was questioned about very very anemic play calls, and he would respond with 'had the play worked I would've looked like a genius' that's the thing though, these plays he was questioned about had a absolute zero % chance at succesion. It was awful.
The man had never called plays at the D-1 level in his life and for some reason someone thought it'd be a bright idea if his first play calling gig was in the SEC. It was as if stoops was dumb enough to have Dawson convince him he was the man for the job the same way Barnhart was dumb enough to allow stoops convince him he was the man for the job. It was like a trickle down effect of cluelessness that I just couldn't for the life of me wrap my head around. And man did he look as clueless as his resume looked. Every single day though I would hop on this board and say if Dawson returns my season tickets will go. I will not be able to attend another game in which Dawson is calling the plays. That's the only legit way I would be able to get my point across, that's the only threat (it was a promise) I could make that might possibly be heard (not saying it was a factor it wasn't by any means a factor in him losing his job but if anyone of importance sees that who knows they might notice a trend). I really didn't want to cancel my season tickets I'm a diehard UK football fan, but Dawson had given me no choice. I thought aye if the AD and stoops get wind that a lot more fans will cancel season tickets if Dawson returns then who knows it might put them into a corner where they may have to get rid of him.
It was a desperation move on my part, but it was the only message I felt I could make that could possibly make a difference. I had no choice desperate times called for desperate measures. And boy was I desperate. I made sure I had Dawson needs to go threads left and right on this board, I flooded the board with these threads. Yes I got blasted by the entire fan base here considering the entire fan base had Dawson's back still because according to them stoops is all knowing and if stoops thinks he's a good coach then he's a good coach. Not many here have the cajones to question stoops methods it's seems like, they all just find ways to apologize for him and justify his silliness. But not me, I even had a brilliant idea for a petition that I posted on this board. If 100,000 fans sign a petition each willing to donate 2 dollars or 50,000 middle class fans donating 4 dollars each for the termination of Shannon Dawson's contract (paying for his buyout). That maybe we could, as a fanbase, unite and take him out of his play calling duties and not letting him set our program back another 4-5 years. It was just 2-4 dollars each.
He was stealing money from people who have the ability to adequately do the job. Nobody that clueless deserves to get paid that kind of money to be clueless he was stealing money from the university. I could see right thru his clueless mind. If he remained here another year our program was doomed. The day he was released. Many on this here board knew just how happy I was before I had said a thing. One even saying 'im happy you got what you've been asking for I know how much this means to you' before I had even spoke on the topic. But man was he right. Never had anyone's word's on the internet rang so true and dear to me. I was excited. I was thrilled. I was ecstatic. It was the best Christmas present anyone has ever given me. It was as if God answered my prayers. Needless to say I was the happiest of campers that I'd then be able to continue getting my season tickets. Because I honestly didn't think stoops had it in him to fire someone he hired. I feel like stoops lets pride get in the way a lot and him firing Dawson would be like admitting he was wrong and I just didn't see it happening he's not the type to admit he's wrong when he's wrong, one of the many things I've learned about Stoops during his tenure here.
Let me tell you a story about Dawson real quick. One time there was a game we were playing at Vanderbilt. We had that ball at the one yard line. With one yard to score (if we score this TD it's the difference in winning and losing). First down. We're in the shotgun formation, we hand the ball off out of shotgun to Boom Williams (our speed/not power back). We get stuffed at the one yard line. 2nd and goal at the one yard line. We once again line up in shotgun formation. We do another halfback draw and hand the ball off to the running back, boom Williams, at the 4-5 yard line and we turn a one yard run into a 5 yard run and we get stopped at the one yard line once again. Ok all hope isn't lost yet it's 3rd down we only have one yard to go we're ok. We lineup in shot gun formation at the one yard line. The ball is snapped, towles does a quick hesitation then proceeds to hand the ball off to Mikel Horton at the 4-5 yard line, once again turning a one yard run into a inexplicable 4-5 yard run with a power back this time, but it doesn't matter which back is in its a terrible call regardless. He gets stopped at the one yard line.
Ok it's 4th down now and all of a sudden as a fan I get a very eery feeling considering the absolute amazing cluelessness that was on display, it was as if Dawson didn't even know what SEC football was. You don't go in shotgun at the one yard line vs stout SEC defenses. You just don't do that. It's a cardinal sin and a pathetic desperation move. If you're at the one yard line you go in goal line formation and if it's first down you do 4 QB sneaks and 99% of time it won't take 4 tries to get a TD from the one. Anyways here we are, 4th and goal at the one. Me sitting there watching the TV as stunned and dumbfounded all at once as I've ever been in my entire life. I couldn't believe what it was I just witnessed. We line up in goal line formation, for the first time. We try a QB sneak for the first time at the one yard line. They stuff it as easily as can be because we didn't try that play til 4th down. We get stopped. Turnover on downs Vandy ball. Moral to the story is. Dawson isn't a good OC regardless of his personnel, he was not scoring on that drive regardless of the personnel. It was a beautifully ugly display of cluelessness. That pretty much summed up his entire season here. Dawson is horrible. I do not think this is a good UK football team. It's an almost decent football team in all honesty. We will likely go 5-7 this year (my very true prediction). But I just don't see a snowball's chance in hell that we lose to a Dawson coached offense.
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((((My post was too long to do in one message the rest of my post is in the following post in which provides some real good insight as for what USM fans should expect)))). >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not only that the one player who took up for him, Towles, referring to Dawson as the sacrificial Lamb, Dawson still had the audacity to throw that player under the bus calling him a bad quarterback a week ago. Yes he was a terrible quarterback. Morgan Newton-esque bad. But it was the coaches choice to trot him out on the field when a much more talented, way better option, at QB was backing him up. Not only that it didn't matter who his personnel was he just didn't know how to put anyone in position to succeed. Just shows the kind of person he is. He threw the one player that stood up for him under the bus. Which was a pathetic move on Dawson's end. Btw. Drew Barker is better than your QB. I gaurantee he finds better succes vs. P-5 schools than your QB has displayed thus far. Just because he's a cupcake stat sheet stuffer doesn't make him a better QB than Barker. I'll give you that he's a lot more proven whereas Barker isn't proven at all. But barker is a damn good talent. Don't be surprised at all if Barker outplays the cupcake stat sheet stuffer. Especially with Dawson as the OC (remember I'm an honest realistic guy, not talking crap by any means just speaking the truth here). No way UK loses to Dawson, just no way. Besides that though I expect a very disappointing season for us with another 5-7 finish. We just won't lose to USM. I promise you that. Dawson just isn't cut out for calling plays at the D-1 level and you'll find that out soon enough. Promise
You're one of the few on this board who refuse to be gaslighted by Stoops and his sycophants. I don't like being lied to, and I refuse to bow down to pressure from a bunch of snot nosed kids who don't know football but like to polish their epeen on the interwebz. I'm already seeing my predictions come true, and yet because it's bad for UK football I get no satisfaction from it. There will always be a large swath of fans who will lap up whatever sour milk the AD and the HC feed them.
Only a fool assumes the mood of someone after reading words on the internet. It's called "telling yourself a story." Look it up.
I don't predict scores. UK by 27
Last year, with a successful CUSA coach, Southern Miss lost big time to Miss St 34-16, 36-28 to a 2-2 (at the time) Nebraska and Washington 44-31 - 0-3 against Power 5 teams.
They also lost to Marshall 31-10 (10-3) and a very good WKU 45-28 in the CUSA title game.
I'm sorry, but a new coach from Alcorn St and their offensive coordinator do not impress me. I'm not saying their QB isn't good or their RB isn't good, but I don't believe that their receivers can match up with our DBs and I don't think their 285 lb center can handle a guy the size of Elam. Any double team on Elam presents opportunities for our DEs and LBs. I just don't think this is a good match-up for USM physically.
Last year, with a successful CUSA coach, Southern Miss lost big time to Miss St 34-16, 36-28 to a 2-2 (at the time) Nebraska and Washington 44-31 - 0-3 against Power 5 teams.
They also lost to Marshall 31-10 (10-3) and a very good WKU 45-28 in the CUSA title game.
I'm sorry, but a new coach from Alcorn St and their offensive coordinator do not impress me. I'm not saying their QB isn't good or their RB isn't good, but I don't believe that their receivers can match up with our DBs and I don't think their 285 lb center can handle a guy the size of Elam. Any double team on Elam presents opportunities for our DEs and LBs. I just don't think this is a good match-up for USM physically.
UK's weakness on D is the front 7 vs. the run...UK's strength on D is the secondary and possibly our edge pass rushers in Ware/Allen and Walker. If So Miss doesn't attack our run defense...I don't see them going crazy on UK scoring wise.
On other side of ball is possibly the opposite story...UK's strength appears to be the run game as whole and UK's weakness is for sure pass protection at the tackle spots and possibly QB experience. So Miss is smallish up front and succeptible to ground and pound game.]
I see it UK 31 - So Miss 21.
On other side of ball is possibly the opposite story...UK's strength appears to be the run game as whole and UK's weakness is for sure pass protection at the tackle spots and possibly QB experience. So Miss is smallish up front and succeptible to ground and pound game.]
I see it UK 31 - So Miss 21.
How do I come to that conclusion? Well, you no longer have two great RB's, you have one and a maybe and your one didn't do too well against good competition. You also lost your top two WR's, you know, the guys your very good QB depends on. Unless you are a top program, you don't just reload with more NFL talent. Those are big losses. Losing both starting OT's is bad as well. Replacing a very successful HC and OC, have to chuckle on that one, is not taking a step forward. Your offense isn't as strong as it was last year. I'm not sure how you can rationalize that it is. The fact that you're predicted to win one of the weakest conferences doesn't do much for me. There are size mismatches all over the place. You have a solid team but it isn't a P5 solid team. Maybe we're still bad, I don't know, but I think we are much improved. We will see in 2 days. Good luck.
I don't feel too badly about mine. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition ... or Kenutcky football.