Could we be an Elite 8 team with the right matchups? Looks like maybe.
5 wins over teams in the top 10
5 wins over teams in the top 10
Up to 12 in NET
- Thread starter BlueWorldOrder74
- Start date
If Pope gets us to an E8 having to build from entirely empty roster in a month? Back the Brinks truck up, the dude is the guy.
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Without JR we definitely are not among the elite teams, but I think we are still comfortably Sweet 16 level. Get to the second weekend and anything can happen.
The right matchups and hot shooting from our guards and we can win against almost anybody. Of course, the opposite is true also.
I think so. We played very well last night. If we bring that kind of execution and play defense for 2 halves like we did the first we can go a long way.
It’s all gonna come down to how hard we guard and how well we shoot the 3 ball. We may die from it but you can also ride it a long way.
Yes. Have to remember that it’s hard to guess us too, especially on a quick turnaround.
The biggest thing about missing JR, besides his obvious talent and system knowledge, is that he gave us redundancy. If either JR or Koby were firing, we were good. If both, then lights out.
Now we need everyone to step up. Will probably need timely threes from some combo of the freshmen/Ansley/Carr.
That’s one thing I’m counting on. We are hard to prepare for and non conference teams especially on a quick turnaround may not be able to do as well stopping us. If we can win the first game each weekend I’ll feel good. Obviously we have to win to advance, but the second game will be the hardest to guard us.
The matchups are KEY, but we know how this goes, even without Cal. We'll be lined up with the exact kinds of teams that we've had issues with this year - physical, high defense, high octane offenses. There are mid majors that will make the dance that will match up well with us - maybe not in the first game, but the first weekend for sure. And the committee will make damned sure Pope and UK don't get to waltz right on into the S16.
I predict our bracket will be misery. With 12 likely SEC teams going in, it will be very hard to not run into one of them in the 2nd weekend.
And you can GUARANTEE if Arkansas squeaks in, they will be lined up directly in our bracket somewhere, probably early.
I predict our bracket will be misery. With 12 likely SEC teams going in, it will be very hard to not run into one of them in the 2nd weekend.
And you can GUARANTEE if Arkansas squeaks in, they will be lined up directly in our bracket somewhere, probably early.
If only we could have had more Q3 blowouts… then we could be near the top like Duke.
We do best against unathletic teams. And that first game should be some minor league conference champion. Idaho Valley A&M or Racist Televangelist Online Diploma Mill. Then second game, hopefully the other team is a little tired and not prepared for it offense.
I have no idea how this team will do in the NCAAT, I’m just ready to play some non-SEC teams and get on a neutral court.
I would agree with this.
In a OAD setting, anything can happen, so yes we could win an E8 game. But the odds of winning 2 or 3 such games in a row are low and lower.
So matchups matter!!!
And getting MORE from the complimentary players (Garrison, Almonor, Chandler, Noah, Perry), or at least 2-3 of them is VITAL. As is not having a bad game from Brea (or any of our starters).
When you play mostly Q3 competitions, your metric will be inflated...
LSU could not even guard our simple ISO and easy cut...
LSU could not even guard our simple ISO and easy cut...
Duke passes Auburn up in NET.
They have the same record, but Auburn has played a way tougher schedule.
Auburn is 15-3 in Quad 1 games and Duke is 6-3. Auburn has played twice as many Q1 games and won over twice as many Q1 games with the same amount of losses.
Both teams are 6-0 in Quad 2 games.
I guess Duke’s 15-0 record against Quads 3 and 4 is the difference.
The numbers just do not make sense to me.
They have the same record, but Auburn has played a way tougher schedule.
Auburn is 15-3 in Quad 1 games and Duke is 6-3. Auburn has played twice as many Q1 games and won over twice as many Q1 games with the same amount of losses.
Both teams are 6-0 in Quad 2 games.
I guess Duke’s 15-0 record against Quads 3 and 4 is the difference.
The numbers just do not make sense to me.
When you always play against bad teams, your metric will be inflated
We look like champion level team when playing against LSU...
But I thought these computer programs were suppose to keep that kind of stuff from happening.
That's not how it works. The metrics are adjusted to account for playing against bad teams.
They do. Duke is legitimately just that good this year. Everyone is way to focused on the ACC being a bad conference this year and using that as a reason why Duke is overrated, because let's face it, we all hate Duke. But they are elite this year.
Could the go home early in the tournament? Sure. Any team can. But that won't mean they were overrated or that losing early was caused by their weak conference.
Because even after adjusting for bad competition Duke's stats are still so good they're #1? Duke is elite this year even if they've been beating up on bad competition. They're also #1 on Kenpom by quite a large margin.
None of these advanced metrics and analytics are just raw numbers. They're all adjusted for competition. The specific formulas to come up with the rankings aren't really published, but the stats are adjusted so that, for example, a Duke 30 point win against Miami is worth less than an Auburn 5 point win against someone like Tennessee (that's just a random example to give an idea of how the metrics are adjusted).
Even after adjusting all Duke's numbers down to account for that they're still #1.
and don't forget only playing something like 7 games with the full roster and a big portion of our games with at least 1 starter out and multiple players not 100%.
So basically the numbers do lie because Auburn is better than Duke.
They have played tougher competition and won tougher games, but since Duke blew out a bunch of weak teams and Auburn didn’t play many weak teams, the numbers are skewed.
And yes, I know Duke is elite. I am not comparing Duke to LSU, I am comparing Duke to Auburn.
Duke is great this season.
But Auburn is better. By the eye test and on paper.
I don’t think they can match us up with an SEC team before the round of 16 at earliest even if they have to drop a team a seed line.
I agree, in the tournament it is all about match ups.
Our record is pretty remarkable based on that. 7 games with a full team and I bet it was the first 7-9 games.
Honest question...do you really believe that the committee looks at Kentucky and talks about how they want to make it more difficult for them than other teams?
How does this team compare to the 2018 team? I feel like this team would win. So sure of course they can make an elite 8.
Aike: 100 % agree with you but it was once said that the NCAA is more about matchups then W/L records. Really good teams can face a weaker team but if style of play or a certain matchup is not good for a team, (Tennessee for example; great defensibly but struggles on offense at times and facing a team like UK, we are a bad matchup forcing them to match buckets on the offensive end)
So who knows, if the right teams are in our bracket and we pose enough offensive matchup issues for these teams, we could sneak into a Elite 8 with some luck.
Weak conference doesn’t serve as the iron needed for duke to become what they need.
What did they say on our broadcast that Auburn has more quad 1 wins than Duke and 2 other teams that were in the top 6 combined. They named them but I don't remember who they were. That's insane that Duke is back ahead of Auburn in any metric!
They’re as elite as the top 15 teams in the country. Don’t get caught up in recent results.
The NET values blowouts over really bad teams over close Quad 1 wins. I mean we made a bigger jump beating up on LSU then our road Quad 1 close wins vs Oklahoma.
Dook has been given way too much credit in all rankings for beating up on teams with losing records. 13 of their wins are against mostly teams with losing records and are few .500.
I wonder if there's any chance we can realistically push towards a 2-seed. I mean realistically in the sense that winning the SECT is probably not in the cards for this team.. but.. if we beat Mizz and win two in the SECT? That might be enough for a 2-seed.
Problem there is that 4 of the 8 one and two-seeds are in the SEC, and I just dont see them dropping past us even with a 1st round SECT exit. They too will have the SOS behind them.. Duke is locked in, Houston is probably locked in. Probably too much to ask (as I answer my own question).
Problem there is that 4 of the 8 one and two-seeds are in the SEC, and I just dont see them dropping past us even with a 1st round SECT exit. They too will have the SOS behind them.. Duke is locked in, Houston is probably locked in. Probably too much to ask (as I answer my own question).
This. Makes an off night from Brea a killer. Pre-Jax injury you just needed 2 of Oweh, Jax.Brea to hit their averages…and Oweh was a 90% lock
I wouldn't see why not we have beaten 2 projected number 1 seeds (Duke , & UT twice). If we can do the scenario you're talking about it should be able to be possible.
We were like 13 point favorites against LSU and won by 31. That's 18 points above expectation. Expect a big jump in rating.
We were 3 point favorites against Oklahoma and won by 1. We played worse than expected.
Duke basically plays a team a system expects them to beat by double digits and then they win by 20+. Last night, they played Wake. Wake is about as good as LSU. They were 20 point favorites and won by 33. Against Illinois, they were about a 10 point favorite and won by 43. Huge blowouts well above expected performance will result in large rating improvement.
We play Missouri next. If we lose by 1, we could move up. If we lose by 8, we might move down.
Our rating might be low when considering the top end quality of our wins because we've tended to play quite poorly in our losses. Ohio State, Georgia, Miss, Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas were all double digit losses. Our rating would be better with the same exact record if we lost those games by a smaller average margin.
We were 3 point favorites against Oklahoma and won by 1. We played worse than expected.
Duke basically plays a team a system expects them to beat by double digits and then they win by 20+. Last night, they played Wake. Wake is about as good as LSU. They were 20 point favorites and won by 33. Against Illinois, they were about a 10 point favorite and won by 43. Huge blowouts well above expected performance will result in large rating improvement.
We play Missouri next. If we lose by 1, we could move up. If we lose by 8, we might move down.
Our rating might be low when considering the top end quality of our wins because we've tended to play quite poorly in our losses. Ohio State, Georgia, Miss, Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas were all double digit losses. Our rating would be better with the same exact record if we lost those games by a smaller average margin.